News
Reform UK tops Senedd poll as Labour support collapses
Farage’s party leads for first time in voting intentions ahead of 2026 election
REFORM UK has surged to the top of a new Senedd election poll, marking the first time the party has led voting intentions for a Welsh election.
The poll, conducted by Find Out Now with more than 2,000 respondents across Wales, puts Reform UK on 29%, with Plaid Cymru close behind on 27%, and Welsh Labour trailing in third on just 18%.
The figures mirror recent polling from YouGov which also showed Plaid and Reform pulling ahead of Labour, whose dominance in the Senedd since devolution now appears under serious threat.
The current makeup of the Welsh Parliament sees Labour holding the most seats, followed by the Conservatives and then Plaid Cymru. Reform UK currently holds no seats, but the next election will be fought under a new proportional voting system with 96 Members of the Senedd—up from the current 60.
According to the latest survey, the collapse in Labour support is being driven by disaffected voters and a failure to retain backing from its 2024 UK general election base. Just 47% of those who voted Labour last year said they would do so again in a Senedd contest. In contrast, 31% of former Labour voters say they would now support Plaid Cymru.
Reform UK’s support appears to come largely from former Conservative voters—around a third of their current backers voted Tory in 2024—as well as a sizeable proportion of first-time voters and non-voters.
Turnout remains a key factor, with just 39% of those polled saying they would “definitely” vote, and a further 17% saying they are “likely” to do so. Senedd election turnout has never risen above 50%.
The poll paints a bleak picture for First Minister Eluned Morgan, whose leadership of Welsh Labour has come under growing scrutiny. In response to a similar ITV Cymru Wales/Barn Cymru poll last month that also placed Labour third, Mrs Morgan admitted the results were “a serious wake-up call” and warned that the party faced a “serious challenge” to reconnect with voters.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has visited Wales recently to unveil the party’s early policy pledges, including proposals to reopen coal mines and revive steel production at Tata Steel’s Port Talbot site. The proposals have been widely criticised as impractical and unaffordable by political opponents and industry experts alike.
The Conservatives continue to poll poorly in Wales, registering just 11% in the latest figures. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are tied on 7% each.
Polling expert Dr Jac Larner, who analysed the Barn Cymru data, cautioned that at least 10 seats would fall within a narrow margin of error—less than 2%—meaning small shifts in public opinion could significantly alter the outcome under the new electoral system.
The next Senedd election is due to take place in May 2026.
News
Amber weather warning as ‘danger to life’ rain set to hit Pembrokeshire
Dyfed-Powys Police and council teams prepare as Monday deluge expected
COMMUNITIES across Pembrokeshire are being urged to brace for severe weather after the Met Office issued an amber “danger to life” warning for heavy rain, covering the county from 4:00am to 9:00pm on Monday (Dec 15).
Up to 80mm of rain is expected widely, with 100mm possible on higher ground in north Pembrokeshire and the Preseli foothills. With rivers already running high following weeks of persistent wet weather, Natural Resources Wales says there is a heightened risk of flooding in low-lying areas, including parts of Haverfordwest, Remington Bridge, Merlin’s Bridge, Tenby, Neyland and along the Western Cleddau.

Travel disruption likely
The Met Office warns that fast-flowing or deep floodwater could pose a danger to life, with road flooding likely on key Pembrokeshire routes such as the A40, A487 and A478. Bus and rail services may face disruption.
Dyfed-Powys Police said officers would be monitoring known flood hotspots throughout Monday and urged drivers to avoid non-essential travel during the worst of the downpours.
A police spokesperson said: “Please plan ahead. Do not risk driving through floodwater. Conditions may change very quickly.”
Yellow warnings already in place
A yellow rain warning is active for southwest Wales from midnight tonight (Sun 14 Dec). A separate yellow warning for mid and north Wales began this afternoon.
Pembrokeshire County Council said its highways and emergency planning teams are on standby, with extra staff monitoring river gauges and drainage across the county. Sandbags are available where required.
Residents urged to prepare
Natural Resources Wales is advising residents in flood-prone areas to take precautions today, including:
- Checking local flood alerts
- Moving valuables upstairs where possible
- Securing outdoor items against strong winds
- Checking on vulnerable neighbours
The Herald understands that emergency services expect the heaviest rainfall between 6:00am and 3:00pm on Monday, with further unsettled weather forecast later in the week.
More updates to follow
This is a developing story. The Pembrokeshire Herald will bring live updates as information comes in from the Met Office, NRW, PCC and emergency services.
Health
Major investment confirmed for GP services in Wales
Government unveils £41m boost, but practices warn pressures remain acute
MORE than £41m in extra funding will go into general practice in Wales this year following a new agreement between the Welsh Government, NHS Wales and GP leaders. Ministers say the deal provides stability at a time of rising demand — but the settlement comes against a backdrop of sustained pressures, recruitment challenges and concerns over patient access.
The package includes a 4% uplift to the General Medical Services (GMS) contract for 2025-26, in line with independent DDRB pay recommendations, and a guaranteed 5.8% recurrent uplift from 2026-27. The Welsh Government says the multi-year commitment will allow practices to plan ahead, modernise systems and strengthen community-based services.
Health Secretary Jeremy Miles said the investment showed an “unwavering commitment” to general practice, adding: “The 4% pay uplift ensures fair recognition for GPs and practice staff who work tirelessly to deliver care for communities across our country. Multi-year funding gives practices the confidence to invest in the transformation primary care needs.”
However, the announcement comes at a time when many Welsh practices continue to report severe workforce pressures, rising demand, and longstanding challenges in recruiting new partners. GP numbers have fallen over the past decade, with some practices handing back contracts or operating list closures because of unsustainable workloads. Patient satisfaction with access has also declined, according to the latest Welsh GP Patient Survey.
What the deal includes
The settlement for 2025-26 comprises £37.9m of new investment and £4m in re-invested capacity funding, with the key elements including:
- A 1.77% uplift in expenses, intended to help practices manage inflationary pressures in energy, staffing and running costs.
- A recurrent £20m stabilisation fund to support practices facing immediate operational pressures and to prepare for wider reform under the incoming Sustainable Farming Scheme model for health.
- An increased partnership premium, aimed at retaining experienced GPs and encouraging new partners into a model that some say has become less attractive due to financial and regulatory risk.
- A full review of the GMS allocation formula — the first in more than 20 years — which determines how funding is distributed between practices. Some rural and deprived communities have long argued the current system does not reflect the complexity of local health needs.
Wider context
General practice remains the foundation of the NHS, accounting for around 90% of patient contacts, yet it receives a proportionally small share of the overall health budget compared with hospital services. Both the Welsh NHS Confederation and GPC Wales have repeatedly warned that without sustained investment, primary care risks being unable to meet increasing demand from ageing populations and rising chronic illness.
The Welsh Government’s own “community-by-design” programme relies on shifting more care closer to home, reducing pressure on emergency departments and supporting earlier intervention. For that to be achieved, GP leaders say investment needs to be matched with workforce expansion, improved digital systems, and clear strategies to retain experienced clinicians.
Working groups will now be set up to examine access standards, diabetes prevention and new service models.
Mr Miles said he was pleased that GPs would be “actively contributing to creating innovative care models that enhance access, improve outcomes and deliver care locally.”
GP representatives broadly welcomed the deal but have stressed that it is only one step in addressing the scale of challenge across primary care.
Community
Narbelles WI support Food Bank with festive donation
Group marks December meeting with charity collection and Christmas celebrations
NARBELLES WI rounded off the year with a festive December meeting featuring a bring-and-share buffet, party games and a Secret Santa gift exchange.
Members also used the occasion to support families in need across the county, collecting food items and presenting a £120 cheque to Ann Watling from Pembrokeshire Food Bank. The donation represents the proceeds of the group’s bucket collection during Narberth Civic Week 2024.
A spokesperson for the WI said the group was delighted to finish the year “with fun, friendship and a chance to give something back to the community.”
(Photo: Narbelles WI members presenting the cheque to Ann Watling, Pembrokeshire Food Bank.)
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