News
Polling expert John Curtice warns Labour not to focus only on Reform
Party is losing more voters to Liberal Democrats and Greens than to Reform, with warnings echoed in Welsh battlegrounds
LABOUR has been told at its annual conference that it faces danger on several fronts, not just from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK – and the warning has clear echoes in Wales.
Sir John Curtice, Britain’s best-known polling expert and a regular on election night broadcasts, told a fringe meeting that Labour is losing more support to the Liberal Democrats and Greens than to Reform. He said that unless Sir Keir Starmer’s government shows progress on the NHS and the economy, the party could repeat the Conservatives’ mistakes.
Welsh battlegrounds
The warning has particular relevance in Wales, where Reform has already established a foothold in communities frustrated with the pace of change. In Pembrokeshire, the party has targeted votes in Milford Haven, Pembroke Dock and Tenby, while the Liberal Democrats remain competitive in parts of mid-Wales, and the Greens have steadily grown their share in university towns like Aberystwyth.
Curtice told Labour members: “It is a mistake to believe Reform is the only challenge. Collectively, you are losing more votes to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens – and that could be decisive.”
Voters want delivery
Curtice also warned that focusing too heavily on immigration risked repeating Tory errors. He said voters in Wales and across the UK were far more concerned with NHS waiting times, cost-of-living pressures and job security. Even in seats where Reform is strong, he argued, Labour could still lose if smaller parties drained its support.
One year into government, Curtice said Labour had suffered “the worst ever collapse in support for a newly elected government”, adding that the public remained “deeply unhappy”.
Starmer under pressure
He questioned whether Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer had yet defined himself in the public mind. While Starmer had tried to present himself as a “friendly plumber” fixing broken systems, Curtice said voters wanted a leader with a bold vision.
“The mystery of Keir Starmer remains,” he said. “People still don’t know what he stands for.”
Burnham in the wings
Curtice also pointed to polling showing Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, as significantly more popular with Labour’s 2024 voters than the Prime Minister himself. Burnham’s favourability rating stands at +37%, compared with Starmer’s +13%.
What it means for Wales
For Labour in Wales, the warning is stark. With Reform pushing hard in coastal communities, Liberal Democrats clinging on in rural mid-Wales, and the Greens building support among younger voters, Labour cannot assume disaffected electors will automatically stay loyal.
In Pembrokeshire, where health services, transport links and the cost of living dominate local concerns, Curtice’s message was clear: if Labour cannot deliver on bread-and-butter issues, it risks being outflanked not just by Nigel Farage, but by parties many assumed posed little threat.
Ministry of Defence
Official application lodged for controversial Pembrokeshire space radar scheme
THE MOD has submitted a formal planning application for the controversial DARC space radar scheme at Cawdor Barracks near Brawdy.
The Ministry of Defence wants to install 27 radar antennas and associated infrastructure at the former RAF site as part of the Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability, known as DARC.
The project would form part of a global network of sensors across the UK, USA and Australia under the AUKUS defence partnership.
The system is designed to track satellites, space debris and other objects in orbit, providing 360-degree coverage of the sky in all weather conditions and at all times of day.
Cawdor Barracks was named as the preferred UK site in late 2023 by the then Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.
A supporting statement submitted with the application says the scheme would improve the UK’s ability to detect, identify and track objects in Earth orbit.
It states: “This capability is critical to protect and defend the services provided by satellites, ensuring continuity and resilience against collisions or debris-related incidents.”
The document also says the loss of GPS services alone could cost the UK an estimated £1.422 billion per day.
The application says the scheme would create around 90 full-time equivalent construction jobs and 60 full-time equivalent operational jobs, including maintenance and security roles.
The MoD says the project would help protect critical national infrastructure in orbit and provide data to UK Government departments, the Met Office and the UK Space Agency.
However, the plans remain controversial locally.
St Davids City Council recently voted unanimously to oppose the pre-application consultation proposals.
Objectors have raised concerns about the impact of the development, with protests taking place outside Cawdor Barracks and County Hall in Haverfordwest.
Labour Senedd candidate Eluned Morgan has also called for the scheme to be put on hold while Donald Trump is President of the United States.
Pembrokeshire County Council will now consider the application.
Community
Goodwick grandmother, 97, smashing world records after taking up rowing at 90
Val Coleman defies age with medals, records and a message: “Don’t stop moving”
A 97-YEAR-OLD Pembrokeshire woman who only took up rowing in her nineties is now a world record holder and shows no signs of slowing down.
Val Coleman, from Goodwick, began indoor rowing as part of her recovery after breaking her femur shortly after her 90th birthday.
Now, nearly eight years later, she has broken eight world records and won a string of medals, including 16 golds.
Her latest achievement came this month when she set a new five-kilometre world record in the 95 to 99 age category.

From recovery to records
Val first discovered rowing while watching boats launch at Lower Town Quay in Fishguard.
Her daughter, then captain of Jemima Rowing Club, encouraged her to try a rowing machine.
“She said, ‘I think you’ve got a record there,’ and it went from there really,” Val said.
Despite starting later in life, Val quickly took to the sport and has since built an impressive list of achievements, including World Rowing silver and bronze medals and multiple Welsh titles.
Keeping active key to success
Val credits her longevity and success to staying active.
“I think it’s very important as you get older. You need more exercise, not less,” she said.
In addition to rowing twice a week, she swims or walks daily and attends Pilates classes at her local leisure centre.
“The great thing about rowing is you’re sitting down,” she added. “It’s not as hard on your legs as running.”
A social lifeline
Beyond competition, rowing has brought a strong social element to her life.
“It’s important when you live on your own and you’re getting older,” she said. “I’ve made a lot of new friends.”
Training regularly with her club, Val says she is treated no differently to any other rower.
A lifetime of resilience
A mother of eight, grandmother, great-grandmother and great-great-grandmother, Val has lived in Pembrokeshire for six decades and spent 20 years in Goodwick.
She retrained as a nurse in her late forties and worked at Withybush Hospital until retirement.
Now, she continues to challenge expectations of ageing, keeping physically active while also reading a daily newspaper and doing crosswords.
“Don’t give up”
Val has a clear message for others.
“Don’t give up when you get to 60 or 70,” she said. “Keep moving.”
And for those thinking of trying something new, her advice is simple.
“Give it a go. If rowing isn’t for you, there’s always something else.”
News
UK terror threat level raised to severe after Golders Green attack
THE UK’S terrorism threat level has been raised from substantial to severe, meaning an attack is now considered highly likely.
The decision was taken by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre on Thursday (Apr 30), following the stabbing of two Jewish men in Golders Green, North London, which has been declared a terrorist incident.
The Home Office said the change was not based solely on that attack, but reflected a wider increase in the threat from Islamist and extreme right-wing terrorism in the UK.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said the attack was an “abhorrent, antisemitic” act of terrorism and said her thoughts were with the victims and the Jewish community.
There are five terrorism threat levels in the UK: low, moderate, substantial, severe and critical.
Severe means an attack is highly likely, while critical means an attack is highly likely in the near future.
Threat levels are set independently by JTAC and MI5, based on intelligence and analysis. They do not have an expiry date and can be changed at any time.
Police say the public may see an increase in visible patrols and other security measures, including Project Servator deployments, where specially trained officers patrol public areas to identify suspicious behaviour.
The public is being urged to remain vigilant and report anything suspicious to police. In an emergency, people should always call 999.
Verified against the Home Office update published today.
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