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Plaid Cymru projected to lead Senedd as Labour faces historic collapse

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Final poll suggests Welsh politics could be on the brink of a major realignment

PLAID CYMRU is on course to become the largest party in the Senedd, according to the final YouGov MRP projection for ITV Cymru Wales before polling day.

The model suggests Labour’s century-long dominance of Welsh elections could be coming to an end, with Plaid projected to win 43 seats in the newly expanded 96-member Senedd.

Reform UK is forecast to finish second on 34 seats, while Labour is projected to fall to just 12.

The poll, based on responses from more than 4,600 adults between April 25 and May 4, puts Plaid Cymru on 33% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 29%. Labour is on 12%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 8% and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

Labour facing major losses

The projection points to a dramatic collapse in Labour support across Wales.

YouGov’s central estimate would represent a notional loss of 32 seats for Labour compared with the 2021 result under the new electoral system.

It would also be Labour’s worst result at any major Welsh election since 1906.

The model suggests Labour may fail to top the poll in any of the 16 new Senedd constituencies, and could return no members at all in four of them.

In west Wales, Labour’s support is projected to have fallen into single figures in some areas.

First Minister Eluned Morgan, who leads Labour’s list in Ceredigion Penfro, could also be at risk if the projection proves accurate.

Reform surge

Reform UK is projected to make major gains, rising from just 1% of the vote in 2021 to 29% in the final pre-election model.

The party’s support appears to be spread widely across Wales, though it is weaker in Cardiff and strongest in parts of the south Wales valleys.

One of the most striking projections is in Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr, which includes the Merthyr Tydfil area where Keir Hardie was elected as Wales’s first Labour MP in 1900.

There, YouGov’s central estimate puts Reform UK narrowly ahead on 34%, Plaid Cymru on 33%, and Labour on 14%.

Smaller parties

The Conservatives are projected to win just four seats, which would be their weakest devolved election result.

That would leave them one short of the five members needed to form an official political group in the Senedd.

The Greens are forecast to enter the Senedd for the first time, winning two seats in Cardiff.

The Liberal Democrats are projected to win one seat in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, keeping Jane Dodds in the Senedd.

No majority expected

No party is projected to win the 49 seats needed for an outright majority.

YouGov’s modelling suggests Plaid Cymru would be best placed to lead the next Welsh Government, but would probably need support from another party.

Plaid and Labour together reach a majority in most of the model’s simulations, while a Plaid-Green arrangement does so far less often.

A Reform-Conservative majority appears unlikely in the projection.

Under the new D’Hondt voting system, small movements in vote share could still make a significant difference, particularly for the final seats in each constituency.

Polling stations open tomorrow, Thursday, May 7.

 

Community

Surfers take sewage protest to Broad Haven beach

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CAMPAIGNERS took to the sea at Broad Haven today in a colourful protest demanding urgent action over sewage pollution in Welsh waters.

Surfers, paddleboarders, swimmers and families gathered on the beach on Saturday, with banners calling for cleaner seas and an end to pollution incidents affecting rivers and coastal waters.

The protest was part of the Surfers Against Sewage campaign, with demonstrators carrying placards reading “Keep the sea clean”, “Stop the pollution” and “Cut the crap”.

Mid and South Pembrokeshire MP Henry Tufnell attended the demonstration and made a speech supporting calls for tougher action. He has also recently written to Welsh Water raising concerns about pollution and water quality in the Tenby area.

Henry Tufnell MP speaking at the protest (Pic: Martin Cavaney / Herald)

Local community councillor Jeff Tierney, who works on and in the water at Abereiddy, said he fully supported the campaign.

Cllr Tierney said: “As a surfer, local community councillor and someone who works on and in the water at Abereiddy, I fully support the Surfers Against Sewage campaign.

“We are lucky at Abereiddy our water is excellent, but it’s clear the water companies have failed to invest adequately in ageing infrastructure over the past decades, allowing unregulated sewage discharges, poorly maintained drains and outdated treatment systems to become the norm.

“The result is that some of the treatment works are completely overwhelmed with sewage now effectively bypassing the treatment process, resulting in some rivers and coastal areas at times becoming unsafe and hazardous for swimmers, surfers, fishermen and other water users.

Making a stand: Surfers, swimmers and campaigners gathered at Broad Haven beach to protest over sewage pollution in Welsh waters (Pic: Martin Cavaney / Herald)

“Clean water should not be viewed as a luxury. It’s essential for public health, tourism, local livelihoods and the environment.

“The more this issue is brought into the public domain to make the public aware and put pressure on Natural Resources Wales to do their job properly, the better.”

Campaigners said the issue is no longer just an environmental concern, but one affecting public health, tourism, local businesses and confidence in Wales’ coastal waters.

Broad Haven, like many Pembrokeshire beaches, is central to the county’s identity and visitor economy.

Saturday’s protest showed the strength of feeling among those who use the sea regularly and believe not enough is being done to protect it.

Making a stand: Surfers, swimmers and campaigners gathered at Broad Haven beach to protest over sewage pollution in Welsh waters (Pic: Martin Cavaney / Herald)

 

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Health

New NHS regional body raises questions over future hospital services in Pembrokeshire

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Health bosses promise better joined-up care — but patients will want assurances over Withybush and travel distances

PEMBROKESHIRE patients are likely to be asking what a major NHS shake-up means for the future of hospital services closer to home after a new regional health body formally took over planning across south west Wales.

Health chiefs this week confirmed that regional working has formally transferred from ARCH (A Regional Collaboration for Health) to the South West Wales Regional Joint Committee (RJC), bringing together Hywel Dda and Swansea Bay university health boards under a new leadership structure.

The move is being presented by NHS leaders as a way to improve coordination, reduce waiting times and strengthen specialist healthcare across the region.

Key programmes expected to continue under the new body include cancer care, stroke services, vascular treatment, orthopaedics, pathology and eye care.

But for many in Pembrokeshire, the announcement may trigger familiar concerns about whether “regional working” could eventually mean more services being delivered further east, requiring patients to travel longer distances to Carmarthen or Swansea.

Withybush Hospital remains fiercely valued by local communities, and previous changes to hospital services have often sparked strong public reaction.

For patients in more rural parts of Pembrokeshire — including St Davids, Fishguard, Newport, Crymych and Tenby — access to healthcare can already involve journeys of 40 to 60 miles or more for appointments and treatment.

While health officials insist the new structure is about improving care and making better use of expertise across the region, questions are likely to be asked locally over how Pembrokeshire’s voice will be represented in decisions affecting frontline services.

Among the issues patients may want clarified are whether services currently provided at Withybush could be affected, how travel difficulties for rural communities will be considered, and whether the new regional approach will improve care locally or lead to greater centralisation.

The Regional Joint Committee replaces ARCH, which since 2015 brought together Swansea Bay University Health Board, Hywel Dda University Health Board and Swansea University to support healthcare innovation and service planning.

Health leaders say the new committee will continue to support research, technology and partnership working, while involving patients and communities in shaping services.

But in here Pembrokeshire, many will this plan weaken Withybush, not strengthen it.

 

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Crime

Man used vulnerable victim’s bank card at Milford Haven Tesco

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A 41-YEAR-OLD man has been given a suspended prison sentence after using a vulnerable man’s bank card at Tesco Extra in Milford Haven.

Mark Anthony Hambrook, of Keeston, admitted fraud by false representation when he appeared before magistrates.

The court heard that Hambrook dishonestly used the card on April 29, 2025, spending £220.

Magistrates said the offence crossed the custody threshold because it involved a breach of trust, a vulnerable victim, and was committed while Hambrook was on post-sentence supervision.

He was sentenced to 16 weeks in prison, suspended for 12 months.

Hambrook was also ordered to pay £220 compensation, together with a £154 surcharge and £85 costs.

 

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