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Politics

When was the ‘truth’ era?

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THAT was one of the questions posed at a recent panel discussion hosted by the Royal Statistical Society to consider whether we really are in a post-truth world of ‘alternative facts’, and if so what we can do about it.

These terms have become commonplace as people try to make sense of a global political landscape that looks and feels different to what many would have predicted a year ago. So it was refreshing to hear a more critical take on the concepts such as post-truth, fake news and echo-chambers.

That isn’t to say that the panellists thought all is well. It was accepted that misinformation, ‘fake news’, and a lack of regard for evidence in some quarters are issues worthy of addressing, and that it’s vital for the health of our democracy that we do so. What’s more, Helen Margetts (Oxford Internet Institute) presented a compelling case that the Internet and social media may be exacerbating the problem.

“Is anything particularly new about the challenges we face in defending the importance of facts and evidence?”

What was questioned was the notion that there is anything particularly new about the challenges we face in defending the importance of facts and evidence.

Or, to restate the earlier question – against what previous golden age of ‘truth’ are we implicitly comparing our modern era to when we use the phrase ‘post-truth’?

This sense of perspective is welcome. William Davies’ recent piece in the Guardian, which has generated much discussion in the statistical world, painted a gloomy picture of the supposedly waning power of statistics. But as the National Statistician pointed out in response, our supposedly ‘post-truth’ era is also characterised by both a yearning for more trustworthy analysis to make sense of the world and an abundance of data out there to help inform it, if only we can tap into and make sense of it.

And that is central to our mission here at the Office for National Statistics. We are constantly striving to produce better statistics to support better decisions. We have ambitious plans to harness big data and exploit its potential to help us understand the modern world. And we are always looking to better understand current and future user needs and respond to them where we can.

“We will continue to champion the value of evidence and statistics, even in our supposedly post-truth world.”

It’s not just about producing better statistics, however. There are challenges in explaining to a wide audience what the evidence says about any given issue when the matter at hand is complex, the evidence is not always clear cut, and the methodological limitations of statistics need to be made clear in the name of transparency.

The difficulty with that, as panellist James Bell from Buzzfeed explained, is that when it comes to dealing with a mass audience and a controversial issue, a simple and clear message usually beats a complex one.

Those of us working in the field of official statistics always need to challenge ourselves to communicate better and in a way that is clear and accessible. But we cannot get away from the fact that by necessity we deal in complexity and nuance, which can make it tricky to get our message across where others may be peddling a simpler line and in a louder voice.

The answer, as argued by Full Fact’s Will Moy, lies in recognising that the ONS and UK Statistics Authority, along with other bodies such as new Office for Statistics Regulation, are part of a bigger picture including civil society groups, media outlets, businesses and ordinary citizens. Working together is crucial to help people make sense of the world around them, to continue to build the case for evidence, and to challenge those who wilfully misuse or disregard it.

That’s why, for example, the UK Statistics Authority is partnering with Full Fact, the House of Commons Library and the Economic and Social Research Council on the ‘Need to Know’ project. And it’s also why the work done by organisations such as the Royal Statistical Society to improve statistical literacy is so valuable, so we can all understand the importance of evidence and challenge its misuse.

Responding to Mr Davies’ Guardian piece, the National Statistician argued that “this is the moment when we can make our greatest contribution to society” by seizing the opportunities open to us to produce the statistics that Britain needs to answer the big questions of the day. That’s something we certainly intend to do. And working with others, we will continue to champion the value of evidence and statistics, even in our supposedly post-truth world.

 

Business

Harbwr Brewery plans for Saundersfoot Old Chemist pub

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A FORMER Pembrokeshire county councillor who owns many hostelries in the county has submitted plans to the national park to rejuvenate a “tired” seaside pub.

In an application to Pembrokeshire Coast National Park, Mike Evans of Harbwr Brewery, a former county councillor and national park authority member, seeks a partly retrospective permission for works at the Old Chemist Inn, The Strand, Saundersfoot.

The works include proposed internal alterations to the basement and ground floor, a new rear balcony area to replace the existing one, improvements to front façade, a change of use of shop space to food/drink, and installation of seating booths in the rear garden.

It says the changes proposed will increase the number of staff employed to 15 full time and 10 part-time.

No objections to the proposal were raised by local community council Saundersfoot.

A supporting statement through agent David J P Morgan RIBA Architect, says the 19th Century pub “has endured many alterations during its lifetime and at present it needs improvements to echo the recent upgrading of the village, both in the general tourism support facilities, as well as the new innovative harbour development,” with the  appearance and interior facilities “tired” and needing “works both inside and outside to enable the inn to achieve and provide the high levels of cuisine and facilities now expected”.

It says: “The Inn has been purchased by a local company who have a number of establishments within Saundersfoot and Tenby. The company is owned by local people, they use local produce, they employ local labour and work actively with local communities to achieve the high standards expected.

“The proposals include internal alterations to the internal layout of basement and ground floor which will improve bar, kitchen and food facilities and allow a much more varied menu including lots of local produce and locally caught seafood dishes. New toilet facilities will be provided on both levels to cater for the increase in visitors to the Inn.”

It adds: “The applicant has recently purchased the small retail unit on the ground floor. This was a single room, situated in between the two entrances into the Inn and with its own entrance door from the street.

“The current proposals include integrating this unit into the public house bar area and consequently the application includes a change of use from retail to the serving of food and drink.”

It goes on to say: “The rear ‘beer garden’ will be improved to allow more space and comfortable seating areas.

“The applicant is well known for the extensive use of external plotted plants in open areas at their establishments and the garden area will give the opportunity of using such to soften the garden area whilst giving greater habitat opportunities for birds and insects.”

There were initial objections from the Park’s buildings conservation officer to some of the parts of the design, a 2025 application being withdrawn early that year; amended plans being later submitted.

The application will be considered by park planners at a later date.

 

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News

IFS report says Wales lags behind UK on economy and poverty

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THE WELSH GOVERNMENT’s key Child Poverty Strategy lacks clarity, has no reliable way of measuring success or failure, and, crucially, does not account for the Welsh Government’s lack of control over the levers needed to deliver on it.

Those are the findings of a new report by the UK’s leading economic policy research body, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), which looks at Wales’s economic performance and poor employment record.

The IFS report, published on Wednesday (April 1), shows that Wales’s economic performance is the worst of the UK nations, with the lowest employment rate, the lowest incomes, the lowest productivity, and the worst poverty levels.

POVERTY STRATEGY LACKS FOCUS

The Welsh Government launched its Child Poverty Strategy in 2018, with five broad aims to reduce child and youth poverty. However, the IFS criticises how those aims have been set out, finding that the definitions are too broad to be measured accurately and lack focus. In particular, the IFS says the strategy’s aims are so nebulous that they ignore the impact of policy areas over which the Welsh Government exercises direct control, for example, health and education, on how outcomes might be measured.

The IFS report says: “Issues with the data mean a material risk that the Welsh Government might either appear to have met a future poverty target or missed it, by a large margin, when in fact the reverse is true.”

WG NOT IN CONTROL OF OWN POVERTY STRATEGY

In any event, several of the most direct policy levers available to influence employment and earnings, including minimum wages, employment law and benefits policy, are reserved to Westminster. However, even if these policy levers were available, it would be very challenging to achieve large, rapid reductions in child poverty with them. In addition, Labour has ruled out using the tax system to generate additional income to help it meet its aims.

Wales’s highest-earning regions are along the North East Wales border with England and in the Cardiff and Newport areas. In addition, proportionately more Welsh employees are public sector workers, who are also, far and away, the best paid in Wales. The average public sector wage is around £5,000 higher than the average private sector wage. And those jobs, too, are disproportionately centred in Cardiff, Newport and North East Wales. The best-performing areas by employment rate, Monmouthshire and Newport, are within easy reach of the English border.

POVERTY CONCEALED BY LOWER PROPERTY VALUES

Compared with the rest of the UK, the gap between men’s and women’s pay is lower in Wales, as are the differences in income and in the highest and lowest property prices. However, property prices are far lower in Wales than in England, as are incomes overall; in addition, there are so few higher-rate tax earners in Wales that the Welsh Government increasing their income tax would have a negligible effect on its revenue. In addition, because Welsh housing prices are much lower than elsewhere in the UK, and because housing costs are a factor in how poverty is measured, housing costs improve one of the key poverty metrics.

 

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News

Carol Vorderman urges Welsh voters to reject Reform UK ahead of Senedd election

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TV presenter and commentator to appear at Cardiff event aimed at mobilising anti-Reform voters before May 7

CAROL VODERMAN has urged voters in Wales to reject Reform UK at next month’s Senedd election, as she prepares to appear at a live political event in Cardiff focused on keeping the party out of power.

Speaking ahead of an emergency Guilty Feminist Welsh Election Special at the New Theatre, Cardiff, on Sunday, April 12, Vorderman said Wales faced a crucial choice at the ballot box.

She said: “Wales has a chance for a new beginning in May. But Reform, the chaotic London-based, privately educated, failed Tory party, needs to be sent packing.

“Already numerous of their 96 Welsh candidates have resigned or been sacked for revolting actions. Their last Welsh Reform leader Nathan Gill is serving time in jail for accepting Russian bribes while serving in the European Parliament. Their new Welsh leader was a Tory living in London until a few months ago.

“Farage is a thin-skinned and proven liar. Everyone must come out to vote to save our country. Cymru Am Byth.”

Vorderman is due to appear alongside Guilty Feminist host Deborah Frances-White, with Welsh comedians Kiri Pritchard-McLean and Priya Hall also on the bill. Organisers say the night will mix comedy, music and political discussion, with the aim of building strategy ahead of the election.

Frances-White said polling suggested the Senedd result could be close and argued that “it really matters who ends up making decisions about our lives”, adding that the event was intended as a “get-in-the-room” night to work out how to respond.

Reform UK’s current leader in Wales is Dan Thomas, who was unveiled by Nigel Farage in Newport in February. Thomas is a former Conservative leader of Barnet Council in London, although he grew up in Blackwood.

Vorderman’s reference to Nathan Gill points to a highly embarrassing chapter in the party’s recent history. Gill, a former Reform UK politician and ex-MEP, was jailed last year after admitting taking bribes from pro-Russian figures in exchange for speeches and statements in the European Parliament.

Asked for a response to Vorderman’s remarks, a Reform UK Wales source replied briefly: “Does she even live in Wales?”

It was a short answer, but perhaps not one likely to end the argument. With the campaign heating up, and with high-profile voices now piling in from outside formal party politics, the battle for attention ahead of May 7 is only getting louder.

 

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