Politics
Brexit bots increased division
A RESEARCH collaboration from academics at Swansea University and the University of California, Berkeley suggests that information automated software agents or ‘bots’ were used to spread either ‘leave’ or ‘remain’ social media stories during and after the Brexit referendum which drove the two sides of the debate further apart.
Research by Professor Talavera Professor, and PhD student Tho Pham from the School of Management, in collaboration with Professor Yuriy Gorodnichenko, at University of California, Berkeley, focused on information diffusion on Twitter in the run-up to the EU Referendum.
Professor Talavera said: “With the development of technology, social media sites like Twitter and Facebook are often used as tools to express and spread feelings and opinions. During high-impact events like Brexit, public engagement through social media platforms quickly becomes overwhelming. However, not all social media users are real. Some, if not many, are actually automated agents, so-called bots. And more often, real users, or humans, are deceived by bots.
TWITTER ANALYSIS
Using a sample of 28.6 million #Brexit-related tweets collected from 24 May 2016 to 17 August 2016, researchers observed the presence of Twitter bots that accounted for approximately 20 per cent of total users in the sample. Given the preponderance of re-tweets from bots by humans, a key question is whether human users’ opinions about Brexit were manipulated by bots.
Empirical analysis shows that information about Brexit is spread quickly among users. Most of the reaction happened within 10 minutes, suggesting that for issues critically important to people or issues widely covered in the media, informational rigidity is very small. Beyond information spread, an important finding is that bots seem to affect humans.
However, the degree of influence depends on whether a bot provides information consistent with that provided by a human. More specifically, a bot supporting leaving the EU has a stronger effect on a “leaver” human than a “remain” human.
‘ECHO CHAMBER’
Further investigation shows that “leavers” were more likely to be influenced by bots compared to “remainers”. These results suggest that dissemination of information is consistent with what is frequently referred to as an ‘echo chamber’ – a situation in which information, ideas, or beliefs are amplified or reinforced by communication and repetition inside a defined system, revealing that the outcome is that information is more fragmented rather than uniform across people.”
Professor Talavera said: “Social bots spread and amplify the misinformation, thus influencing what humans think about a given issue. Moreover, social media users are more likely to believe (or even embrace) fake news that is in line their opinions. At the same time, these users distance themselves from reliable information sources reporting news that contradicts their beliefs. As a result, information polarisation is increased, which makes reaching consensus on important public issues more difficult.”
“It is now vital that policymakers and social media should seriously consider mechanisms to discourage the use of social bots to manipulate public opinion.”
Politics
Wales’ First Minister: What happens next?
THIS WEEK will see Mark Drakeford formally step down, with his successor as Wales’ new first minister set to be appointed and a cabinet reshuffle on the horizon.
Following Vaughan Gething’s victory in the Welsh Labour leadership contest, here’s what you can expect as the formal resignation and nomination process gets under way.
Mark Drakeford announced he would be stepping down on 13 December, exactly five years to the day since he was appointed Wales’ first minister in 2018.
He will take his final first minister’s questions on Tuesday, 19 March from 1.30pm.
The outgoing First Minister will be quizzed about his record in office, with questions tabled on the 20mph limit, disused mines and Wales’ place in the world.
Mr Drakeford will then formally tender his resignation to King Charles III.
He is scheduled to give a 30-minute resignation statement in the Senedd at about 3.45pm, with party leaders and MSs expected to take this opportunity to pay tribute.
On Wednesday March 20, the Welsh Government will inform Elin Jones, the Senedd’s speaker or Llywydd, as soon as the Palace confirms the resignation has been accepted.
Ms Jones will then make a written statement to notify the Senedd that this has been received, which marks the point at which Mark Drakeford has formally resigned.
Nominations for the next First Minister will then take place in the Senedd’s chamber or Siambr during the afternoon’s plenary session.
Exact timings are to be confirmed on Wednesday morning but it will either be the first item on the agenda at 1.30pm or after climate change and health questions at nearer 3pm.
If only Vaughan Gething is nominated, he will be declared the First Minister-elect.
But if more than one nomination is made, every Senedd member – except Ms Jones and her deputy, David Rees – will vote by roll call with the nominee requiring a simple majority.
The Llywydd will recommend the Welsh Parliament’s nominee to the King and the First Minister-elect will address the Senedd.
The First Minister will be appointed by Royal Warrant, a legal document authorised by the King, before being sworn in at the Welsh Government’s Cathays Park headquarters.
Mr Drakeford was the only nominee after the 2021 election but when he was first appointed in 2018, Plaid Cymru and the Tories put forward their leaders as a symbolic gesture.
However, after the 2016 election, the vote for First Minister between Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood was tied until the deadlock was broken a week later.
The current parliamentary arithmetic means a tied vote is a possibility but it remains unlikely as it would require agreement between the Tories, Plaid Cymru and Lib Dems.
Vaughan Gething is expected to reshuffle the cabinet in the first week of the Senedd’s Easter recess, which begins on Monday, March 25.
Ministers remain in post in the interim but the counsel general, the Welsh Government’s chief legal adviser, will cease to hold office when the First Minister is appointed.
While Mr Gething will want to put his own stamp on the government, most of the Labour group backed his opponent, Jeremy Miles, so he will need to build some bridges.
Mr Miles, who is education minister, is likely to be offered a ministerial post as a result.
However, a handful of MSs could leave the frontbenches, with Lee Waters already having confirmed he is set to leave his post as deputy minister for transport.
Eluned Morgan and Rebecca Evans, Wales’ health and finance ministers respectively, both backed Mr Gething for leader and will likely stay in the cabinet.
Lynne Neagle and Dawn Bowden, deputy ministers for mental health and culture respectively, also supported his leadership bid and could be promoted.
Jayne Bryant and Ken Skates, who ran Mr Gething’s campaign, could be set for new roles.
Mr Skates stood down as economy minister in 2021 after eight years in government to spend more time in his Clwyd South constituency.
Alyn and Deeside MS Jack Sargeant, and Cynon Valley MS Vikki Howells, could be among the fresh faces in the running – as could Caerphilly MS Hefin David.
The new First Minister can appoint a temporary counsel general with Mick Antoniw, the incumbent, seen as the frontrunner.
Uniquely, this role can be filled by a non-Senedd member but Theodore Huckle, a barrister, was the first, and so far only, independent professional counsel general from 2011 to 2016.
In the days following the Welsh Government reshuffle, the Conservatives are expected to rearrange their own frontbench team in the Senedd.
Wales’ new First Minister will take their first FMQs following the Easter recess on April 16.
That week is likely to see changes to Senedd committee memberships and a motion to formally recommend a new counsel general to the King.
News
Stephen Crabb MP calls for a fairer deal for farmers
WITH concerns over the future of farming in Wales rising to the top of the political agenda, Stephen Crabb MP took up the opportunity to visit a dairy farm near Cosheston recently (Friday 8th March) to meet with a group of Pembrokeshire farmers to hear exactly why the new Welsh Government farming policies have caused so much concern to the industry.
Held at Poyerston Farm, Stephen talked to the owner, NFU Cymru member, Roger Lewis, and a variety of NFU Cymru farmers and representatives as well as Samual Kurtz local MS and Shadow Minister for Rural Affairs, to hear their first-hand accounts of being part of one of the biggest farming demonstrations ever seen in Britain, which saw more than 3,000 farmers journeying to the Senedd.
During the farm visit Stephen was provided with a tour of the rotary milking parlour and was able to find out more about the Welsh Government NVZ rules, the Sustainable Farming Scheme and the ongoing struggles with Bovine TB which are colliding to threaten the future of farming in Wales.
Stephen said told The Herald: “It is clear from speaking to farmers today that a major overhaul is needed to the Welsh Government’s Sustainable Farming Scheme. The levels of stress and anxiety over all the new policies are justified and a lot of work needs to be done to restore the relationship of trust between Welsh Government and farmers.”
He added, “Farmers need an agricultural policy that underpins local food production and support for securing resilient agricultural businesses and rural communities which is vitally important to Pembrokeshire. As the current policy stands, we are anticipating 5,500 jobs lost, a £200m hit to farm business incomes and 11% less livestock in Wales.”
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire MS, Samuel Kurtz said: “Agriculture is the backbone of our local economy, yet the fear in the sector at the Welsh Labour Government’s plans are real. From TB and NVZs to the Sustainable Farming Scheme, Welsh agriculture has been under sustained attack by the Labour Government.”
“Working closely with Stephen, we’ve helped give a voice to our farmers either at the Senedd or in Westminster, to ensure that those fears are heard by the Labour Government in Cardiff.”
“A prosperous farming sector is good for our local economy and good for our environment. Huge thanks to the local NFU Cymru team for the visit and the honesty in which they outlined the impact of the Welsh Labour Government’s policies on farmers.”
Roger Lewis told this newspaper: “It’s been good to welcome both Samuel and Stephen out to farm today, there are a number of factors which are really adding to the pressure on farming businesses at the moment, including of course Welsh Government NVZ regulations, the TB situation in Wales and changes to support arrangements for farmers under the Sustainable Farming Scheme and we are grateful to Samuel for keeping up the pressure in Cardiff on all of these issues which are in the control of Welsh Government. When it comes to Westminster, NFU Cymru is keen to emphasise the importance of UK Governments making the right funding available via UK Treasury to support farmers in Wales, and we look to Stephen to help argue the case there.”
Politics
Jane Hurtt demands urgent overhaul of energy market
WALES’ social justice minister has called for an urgent overhaul of the energy market.
Jane Hutt warned that energy costs will remain almost double pre-crisis levels despite a decrease in the price cap from April.
She said: “The energy market needs a complete overhaul, so that customers are treated fairly no matter where they live and investment is made into local communities.”
Carolyn Thomas, a Labour backbencher, said it is a disgrace that standing charges, which hit those in fuel poverty the most, have been allowed to increase.
She told the chamber: “Standing charges also disproportionately impact my residents in north Wales, who are subject to the highest standing charges in the UK, and will be paying over £95 more than those in London.”
Ms Hutt recognised the injustice faced by people in north Wales, saying she has regularly called on the UK Government to introduce reforms.
She said: “There are two issues – the postcode lottery around the amounts charged, and the fact that costs are applied even when people have used very little or no electricity.”
The minister told the chamber north Wales households are hard done by because they live close to sources of affordable, renewable energy which is exported.
Ms Hutt said she has met the new chair of Ofgem and the Welsh Government has responded to a consultation on standing charges.
She said: “We need a solution that is fair to low-income and low-usage households, and that doesn’t continue to disadvantage households in north Wales.”
Delyth Jewell, who represents South Wales East, described the failure of the energy market as an inevitable consequence of privatisation.
Plaid Cymru’s deputy leader said: “It’s failed consumers, who have to pay extortionate prices for the basic necessity of staying warm enough to live.”
Ms Jewell warned that Ofgem’s new price cap will provide scarce comfort for many families.
She said: “It will do little to help households who still have prepayment meters being installed forcibly in their homes, a third of whom have been forced into self-disconnecting this year.
“And let’s not use nice language to hide the truth here – self-disconnecting isn’t a choice, it is enforced privation, it is state-sanctioned destitution.”
During social justice questions on March 6, Ms Hutt reiterated that major reform is needed as she urged Ofgem and the UK Government to take responsibility.
Criticising a lack of progress, she called for the introduction of a social tariff to help low-income households with their energy bills.
Jack Sargeant, who led a petitions committee inquiry into prepayment meters, warned there is nothing strict or tough about Ofgem’s new code.
He told MSs: “The disability charity, Scope, have recently said there are serious gaps in the new code, meaning that vulnerable people could still be forced onto prepayment meters.”
The Labour MS for Alyn and Deeside criticised Ofgem for failing to provide a response to the petitions committee’s report.
Mr Hutt agreed that it is an unacceptable way to treat a parliamentary inquiry, saying: “We need confidence that Ofgem is treating the Senedd with equal respect to Westminster.”
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