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Politics

Retailers’ no deal reality check

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THE HEADS of the UK’s major food retailers, including McDonald’s, M & S and Asda, have written to MPs and dramatically spelt out their view of the risks of leaving the EU without an agreement.

The warning comes shortly after the revelation that Britain has begun stockpiling food, fuel, spare parts and ammunition at military bases in Gibraltar, Cyprus and the Falklands in case of a no-deal Brexit.

With all contingency plans routinely labelled ‘Project Fear’ by those Brexiters stuck on transmit instead of receive, the retailers have taken a significant risk in sticking their collective head above the parapet by trying to address a substantial issue which is rather glossed by those proclaiming the benefits and underplaying the downside of a crash out Brexit.

The letter is backed by the British Retail Consortium, which represents over 70% of Britain’s retailers by turnover.

The Government said that it was taking special measures to minimise the impact of a no-deal Brexit on supermarkets’ suppliers and insisted that food was not going to run out as a result.

“The government has well-established ways of working with the food industry to prevent disruption and we are using these to support preparations for leaving the European Union.”

The Food and Drink Federation, which represents thousands of food processors and manufacturers, has said a no-deal Brexit would be a “catastrophe”, with uncertainty undermining investment and constraining businesses’ ability to plan and export.

DEAL OR NO DEAL: THE LETTER

On behalf of our businesses and the wider food industry, we want to highlight to you the challenges for retailers and the consequences for millions of UK consumers of leaving the European Union without a deal at the end of March. While we have been working closely with our suppliers on contingency plans it is not possible to mitigate all the risks to our supply chains and we fear significant disruption in the short term as a result if there is no Brexit deal. We wanted to share with you some practical examples of the challenges we are facing.

Our supply chains are closely linked to Europe – nearly one-third of the food we eat in the UK comes from the EU. In March the situation is more acute as UK produce is out of season: 90% of our lettuces, 80% of our tomatoes and 70% of our soft fruit are sourced from the EU at that time of year. As this produce is fresh and perishable, it needs to be moved quickly from farms to our stores.
This complex, ‘just in time’ supply chain will be significantly disrupted in the event of no deal. Even if the UK government does not undertake checks on products at the border, there will still be major disruption at Calais as the French government has said it will enforce sanitary and customs checks on exports from the EU, which will lead to long delays; Government data suggest freight trade between Calais and Dover may reduce by 87% against current levels as a result. For consumers, this will reduce the availability and shelf life of many products in our stores.

We are also extremely concerned about the impact of tariffs. Only around 10% of our food imports, a fraction of the products we sell, is currently subject to tariffs so if the UK were to revert to WTO Most Favoured Nation status, as currently envisaged in the no-deal scenario, it would greatly increase import costs, which could in turn put upward pressure on food prices. The UK could set import tariffs at zero but that would have a devastating impact on our own farmers, a key part of our supply chains.

Our ability to mitigate these risks is limited. As prudent businesses we are stockpiling where possible, but all frozen and chilled storage is already being used and there is very little general warehousing space available in the UK. Even if there were more space it is impossible to stockpile fresh produce, such as salad leaves and fresh fruit. Retailers typically store no more than two weeks’ inventory and it becomes difficult to restock stores if the supply chain is disrupted. We are also attempting to find alternative supply routes but there are limited options and not enough ferries, so this could only replace a fraction of the current capacity.

We are extremely concerned that our customers will be among the first to experience the realities of a no deal Brexit. We anticipate significant risks to maintaining the choice, quality and durability of food that our customers have come to expect in our stores, and there will be inevitable pressure on food prices from higher transport costs, currency devaluation and tariffs.

We are therefore asking you to work with your colleagues in Parliament urgently to find a solution that avoids the shock of a no deal Brexit on 29 March and removes these risks for UK consumers.

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Politics

Senedd Members quiz Transport Scotland on free buses for under-22s

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THE SENEDD’S petitions committee took evidence on the feasibility of Wales following Scotland’s lead by making buses free for under-22s.

MSs quizzed Transport Scotland officials about the Scottish Government’s free bus pass for children and young people aged five to 21, which was introduced in January 2022.

Petitioners, Wales’ children’s commissioner, and the Welsh Youth Parliament have all added their voices to a chorus of calls for a similar free travel scheme in recent years.

Gillian Kelly, from Transport Scotland, said the smartcard encourages younger generations to develop sustainable travel habits early, contributing to efforts to tackle the climate crisis.

Ms Kelly, who is corporate programmes team leader, told Senedd members the free bus pass also helps reduce child poverty by improving access to education and healthcare.

She told the committee 123 million journeys have so far been undertaken under the scheme, which was part of a budget deal between the Scottish Government and Scottish Greens.

She explained the age limit was extended from 19 to 22 in line with national minimum wage rates and over-16s can apply directly rather than through a parent, guardian or carer.

Ms Kelly said the Scottish scheme has so far cost £249m, which is mostly made up of the cost of reimbursing bus companies with the rates negotiated annually with the industry.

Paul White, director of the Confederation of Passenger Transport Scotland, the trade association for the bus and coach sector, described the scheme as fantastic.

He said: “I think the real prize that we hope to see at the end of it, is that when people age out of the scheme they continue to use public transport.”

Mr White told committee members the pass has led to a move from home to school transport to commercial bus routes, creating a saving for councils.

He said bus operators are left no worse off, with Transport Scotland committing to paying for journeys, which has allayed fears growth in passenger numbers could outpace the budget.

Carole Stewart, head of bus strategy at Transport Scotland, said an evaluation of the first year found positive progress towards long-term policy goals.

She told the meeting on March 18 that the pass has opened opportunities for young people to access universities, colleges, apprenticeships and employment.

Mr White added that Scotland has experienced a drop in travel via concessionary schemes for older and disabled people, with passenger numbers at 80% of pre-pandemic levels.

“The free travel scheme has essentially plugged that hole,” he said.

Asked about lessons learned from the rollout, Ms Kelly pointed to teething issues with the complexity of the initial online application process.

Ms Stewart said Scotland has seen an uptick in antisocial behaviour on buses but the majority of young people use the offer with respect for drivers and other passengers.

Mr White echoes concerns about an increase in instances of antisocial behaviour, including substance misuse, abuse of drivers or passengers and damage to vehicles.

He warned antisocial behaviour makes recruitment and retention of drivers more difficult, and he suggested it could be a factor in suppressing travel by older and disabled people.

The industry representative said another lesson learned was the need for clear processes of engagement between Police Scotland and bus operators to tackle problem hotspots.

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Politics

Wales’ First Minister: What happens next?

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THIS WEEK will see Mark Drakeford formally step down, with his successor as Wales’ new first minister set to be appointed and a cabinet reshuffle on the horizon.

Following Vaughan Gething’s victory in the Welsh Labour leadership contest, here’s what you can expect as the formal resignation and nomination process gets under way.

Mark Drakeford announced he would be stepping down on 13 December, exactly five years to the day since he was appointed Wales’ first minister in 2018.

He will take his final first minister’s questions on Tuesday, 19 March from 1.30pm.

The outgoing First Minister will be quizzed about his record in office, with questions tabled on the 20mph limit, disused mines and Wales’ place in the world.

Mr Drakeford will then formally tender his resignation to King Charles III.

He is scheduled to give a 30-minute resignation statement in the Senedd at about 3.45pm, with party leaders and MSs expected to take this opportunity to pay tribute.

On Wednesday March 20, the Welsh Government will inform Elin Jones, the Senedd’s speaker or Llywydd, as soon as the Palace confirms the resignation has been accepted.

Ms Jones will then make a written statement to notify the Senedd that this has been received, which marks the point at which Mark Drakeford has formally resigned.

Nominations for the next First Minister will then take place in the Senedd’s chamber or Siambr during the afternoon’s plenary session.

Exact timings are to be confirmed on Wednesday morning but it will either be the first item on the agenda at 1.30pm or after climate change and health questions at nearer 3pm.

If only Vaughan Gething is nominated, he will be declared the First Minister-elect.

But if more than one nomination is made, every Senedd member – except Ms Jones and her deputy, David Rees – will vote by roll call with the nominee requiring a simple majority.

The Llywydd will recommend the Welsh Parliament’s nominee to the King and the First Minister-elect will address the Senedd.

The First Minister will be appointed by Royal Warrant, a legal document authorised by the King, before being sworn in at the Welsh Government’s Cathays Park headquarters.

Mr Drakeford was the only nominee after the 2021 election but when he was first appointed in 2018, Plaid Cymru and the Tories put forward their leaders as a symbolic gesture.

However, after the 2016 election, the vote for First Minister between Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood was tied until the deadlock was broken a week later.

The current parliamentary arithmetic means a tied vote is a possibility but it remains unlikely as it would require agreement between the Tories, Plaid Cymru and Lib Dems.

Vaughan Gething is expected to reshuffle the cabinet in the first week of the Senedd’s Easter recess, which begins on Monday, March 25.

Ministers remain in post in the interim but the counsel general, the Welsh Government’s chief legal adviser, will cease to hold office when the First Minister is appointed.

While Mr Gething will want to put his own stamp on the government, most of the Labour group backed his opponent, Jeremy Miles, so he will need to build some bridges.

Mr Miles, who is education minister, is likely to be offered a ministerial post as a result.

However, a handful of MSs could leave the frontbenches, with Lee Waters already having confirmed he is set to leave his post as deputy minister for transport.

Eluned Morgan and Rebecca Evans, Wales’ health and finance ministers respectively, both backed Mr Gething for leader and will likely stay in the cabinet.

Lynne Neagle and Dawn Bowden, deputy ministers for mental health and culture respectively, also supported his leadership bid and could be promoted.

Jayne Bryant and Ken Skates, who ran Mr Gething’s campaign, could be set for new roles.

Mr Skates stood down as economy minister in 2021 after eight years in government to spend more time in his Clwyd South constituency.

Alyn and Deeside MS Jack Sargeant, and Cynon Valley MS Vikki Howells, could be among the fresh faces in the running – as could Caerphilly MS Hefin David.

The new First Minister can appoint a temporary counsel general with Mick Antoniw, the incumbent, seen as the frontrunner. 

Uniquely, this role can be filled by a non-Senedd member but Theodore Huckle, a barrister, was the first, and so far only, independent professional counsel general from 2011 to 2016.

In the days following the Welsh Government reshuffle, the Conservatives are expected to rearrange their own frontbench team in the Senedd.

Wales’ new First Minister will take their first FMQs following the Easter recess on April 16.

That week is likely to see changes to Senedd committee memberships and a motion to formally recommend a new counsel general to the King.

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News

Stephen Crabb MP calls for a fairer deal for farmers

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WITH concerns over the future of farming in Wales rising to the top of the political agenda, Stephen Crabb MP took up the opportunity to visit a dairy farm near Cosheston recently (Friday 8th March) to meet with a group of Pembrokeshire farmers to hear exactly why the new Welsh Government farming policies have caused so much concern to the industry. 

Held at Poyerston Farm, Stephen talked to the owner, NFU Cymru member, Roger Lewis, and a variety of NFU Cymru farmers and representatives as well as Samual Kurtz local MS and Shadow Minister for Rural Affairs, to hear their first-hand accounts of being part of one of the biggest farming demonstrations ever seen in Britain, which saw more than 3,000 farmers journeying to the Senedd. 

During the farm visit Stephen was provided with a tour of the rotary milking parlour and was able to find out more about the Welsh Government NVZ rules, the Sustainable Farming Scheme and the ongoing struggles with Bovine TB which are colliding to threaten the future of farming in Wales. 

Stephen said told The Herald: “It is clear from speaking to farmers today that a major overhaul is needed to the Welsh Government’s Sustainable Farming Scheme. The levels of stress and anxiety over all the new policies are justified and a lot of work needs to be done to restore the relationship of trust between Welsh Government and farmers.” 

He added, “Farmers need an agricultural policy that underpins local food production and support for securing resilient agricultural businesses and rural communities which is vitally important to Pembrokeshire. As the current policy stands, we are anticipating 5,500 jobs lost, a £200m hit to farm business incomes and 11% less livestock in Wales.” 

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire MS, Samuel Kurtz said: “Agriculture is the backbone of our local economy, yet the fear in the sector at the Welsh Labour Government’s plans are real. From TB and NVZs to the Sustainable Farming Scheme, Welsh agriculture has been under sustained attack by the Labour Government.”

“Working closely with Stephen, we’ve helped give a voice to our farmers either at the Senedd or in Westminster, to ensure that those fears are heard by the Labour Government in Cardiff.” 

“A prosperous farming sector is good for our local economy and good for our environment. Huge thanks to the local NFU Cymru team for the visit and the honesty in which they outlined the impact of the Welsh Labour Government’s policies on farmers.”

Roger Lewis told this newspaper: “It’s been good to welcome both Samuel  and Stephen out to farm today, there are a number of factors which are really adding to the pressure on farming businesses at the moment, including of course Welsh Government NVZ regulations, the TB situation in Wales and changes to support arrangements for farmers under the Sustainable Farming Scheme and we are grateful to Samuel for keeping up the pressure in Cardiff on all of these issues which are in the control of Welsh Government.  When it comes to Westminster, NFU Cymru is keen to emphasise the importance of UK Governments making the right funding available via UK Treasury to support farmers in Wales, and we look to Stephen to help argue the case there.”

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