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Politics

Assembly Kippers shrink again

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On Tuesday (March 26) Michelle Brown became the fourth assembly member to leave the group since UKIP won seven Senedd seats in 2016.

UKIP HEADING RIGHT TO THE EXTREMES

Leaving the Assembly group, the North Wales AM pointed to the increasingly close relationship between UKIP’s leader, Gerard Batten, and Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (aka Tommy Robinson).

Mr Batten’s appointed Yaxley-Lennon as an ‘adviser’, even though he is not a UKIP member. Under Gerard Batten, UKIP increasingly panders to a racist and ultra-nationalist agenda similar to that of the extremist English Defence League, of which Yaxley-Lennon is a former leader.

Batten has proposed a halt on immigration from Islamic countries and separate jails for Muslim prisoners. He has also compared Yaxley-Lennon to Mahatma Gandhi and Nelson Mandela.

Quitting UKIP, Ms Brown said: “While it is clear that the UK needs a plan to defeat extremism and fundamentalism in all its forms and identities, I fear that the current UKIP leadership believes the best way to do that is to incubate and cultivate a rival fundamentalism.”

A PARTY EASIER TO LEAVE THAN JOIN

Ms Brown’s tenure as an AM has not been without controversy. She was censured and suspended from the Assembly for describing the then-Labour MP, Chuka Umunna, as a “f**king coconut….black on the outside, white on the inside” in a secretly recorded phone call.

Meanwhile, UKIP claims she resigned from the Party to avoid internal disciplinary processes relating to what it claims is poor attendance in Plenary sessions in the Senedd.

Whatever the truth of the situation is, Ms Brown’s departure from UKIP since Gerard Batten began cosying up to ‘Tommy Robinson’ is one of a number of high profile departures from the party including former leader Nigel Farage, MEP Patrick O’Flynn, UKIP’s Scottish leader David Coburn, and members of the Party’s National Executive.

One member of the NEC who quit, former parliamentary candidate Michael McGough said Ukip had become a “national socialist, authoritarian party” run by “fundamentalist Christians and ex-convicts”.

Current NEC rules prevent Yaxley-Lennon from joining the party.

COUNTING DOWN

The election of seven UKIP AMs in 2016 is a gift which keeps on giving for lovers of low farce.

First of all the leader of UKIP in Wales, Nathan Gill, was removed as leader of the UKIP Assembly Group. He subsequently sat as an independent. That reduced UKIP’s number to six before the Fifth Assembly even convened.

When Mr Gill eventually vacated his seat, his replacement – Mandy Jones – was excluded from the UKIP group because she continued to employ Mr Gill’s staff. Some of those staff members were unpopular for criticising the UKIP group in the Senedd in briefings delivered on Mr Gill’s behalf.

In Nathan Gill’s place as leader, UKIP AMs placed the former Conservative MP Neil Hamilton. The colourful and controversial Mr Hamilton has assiduously cultivated a pantomime villain public persona which is not necessarily always an act.

Thereafter, the UKIP numbers shrank to five, when the former Conservative MP Mark Reckless semi-defected to the Conservatives. Excluded from sitting as a Conservative AM, he is nonetheless counted in as a member of the Conservative group in the sort of arrangement that left the Conservatives’ UK leadership exasperated.

With UKIP down to five AMs, there came another coup. This time, Caroline Jones was installed as leader and Mr Hamilton set aside. Mr Hamilton was not happy and a poll of the membership took place to determine who should be party leader; but only in the Senedd.

The strength of UKIP’s support in Wales was underlined by the announcement of the result of a poll of its mass membership base. Of its 876 members in Wales, 514 voted in the leadership election that returned Gareth Bennett as the Party’s leader in the Senedd with a whopping 269 votes.

Exit Caroline Jones, leaving UKIP with four AMs.

Mr Bennett’s gift for finding his mouth with his foot has been an uplifting feature of Welsh public life since his rise to prominence. A phenomenon which one Conservative AM suggested is proof that it is not only cream which rises to the top.

Aligning himself to the leadership direction of Gerard Batten, Mr Bennett’s determination to offend anyone and everyone has lowered his Party to depths previously thought of as unreachable by normal means.

Last weekend, a meeting devoted to abolishing the Assembly due to be addressed by Mr Bennett was abandoned when only three people turned up.

It appears there is further to go on UKIP’s journey before it hits the bottom.

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Politics

Public feel ‘disengaged’ from Parliament

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RESEARCH by The Hansard Society suggests that the public is increasingly disenchanted with the UK’s system of government.

Founded in 1944, the Hansard Society is dedicated to expounding the principles and practice of parliamentary democracy and its challenges. It is widely recognised as the Westminster Parliament’s ‘critical friend’.

Contrary to a belief peddled by some commentators, the research, published in the 16th Audit of Public Engagement, finds that the public care about political issues. However, the research also shows that many are unhappy and frustrated about the way in which Parliament works. As a result, a significant proportion of voters are ready to consider a radical change to our system of government.

Over one-half of the Audit’s respondents think that what the country needs is a ‘strong’ leader, prepared to break the rules. Around 40% think that the government could better deal with the country’s problems if it was not tied to parliamentary votes.

72% say the system of governing needs ‘quite a lot’ or ‘a great deal’ of improvement. That figure is a significant increase on the previous year, itself at a worrying level of 67%. The number of people who say the system needs ‘a great deal’ of improvement has risen eight points in a year, to 37%.

Asked whether the problem is the system or the people, the largest group (38%) say ‘both’.

When asked which institutions are most likely to act in the public interest, UK citizens have more confidence in the military and judges than in politiciansPoliticians will be pleased to see that they still rank ahead of political parties, big business and newspapers as more likely to act in the public interest.

Strikingly, only 25% of the public have confidence in MPs’ handling of Brexit. People were asked whether key groups’ and institutions’ handling of Brexit had given them more or less confidence in these groups and institutions to act in the public’s best interest. 60% said they had less confidence in political parties, 60% in the government and 57% in MPs as a result of their handling of Brexit. Confidence had been driven down the least in civil servants (41%) and judges (35%) as a result of their handling of Brexit.

75% say the main political parties are so divided within themselves that they cannot serve the best interests of the country. 50% say the main parties and politicians don’t care about people like them.

Well over half the public are downbeat about the state of Britain – 56% think Britain is in decline, 63% think Britain’s system of government is rigged to advantage the rich and powerful, and 66% think most big issues facing the country today don’t have clear solutions.

The public is evenly split between those who prefer politicians who make compromises with people they disagree with (48%) and those who prefer politicians who stick to their positions (45%). 66% think politicians should be able to say what’s on their mind regardless of what anyone else thinks about their views.

Despite the legislative chaos following the last Brexit referendum, 55% still think that big questions should be put to the public in referendums more often than today.

The Audit suggests a dissolution of the ties between the governed and their representatives. Although core indicators of political engagement remain stable, beneath the surface the strongest feelings of powerlessness and disengagement are intensifying. The number who ‘strongly disagree’ that political involvement can change the way the UK is run (18%) has hit a 15-year high. 47% feel they have no influence at all over national decision-making – a new high for the Audit series.

At the national and local levels, the numbers of those feeling they have no influence at all have jumped by seven and nine points in a year, respectively. This intensification of the strongest feelings of powerlessness has occurred even as the overall measures of people’s sense of influence, which include those who feel less strongly, have declined only slightly since last year.

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Politics

Generation gap spells trouble for Tories

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ON MONDAY, the Conservative think-tank Onward published a report into generational voting patterns, policy priorities and political values.

The report considers why age has become the key dividing line in British politics, what has happened since the last general election, and what can be done to win over millions of younger people deserting the centre-right in considerable numbers.

The report follows a detailed 10,000 sample poll, conducted by Hanbury Strategy. It is the largest study of the generation gap since age became the key political dividing line in British politics.

Younger and older voters have always been politically different, but never by this much

In 2017, the gap between younger and older voters was 50 points larger than the post-war average since 1945 and five times higher than in 2010. It started, in 2015 before Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn became the leader of the Labour Party. This gap has grown, not narrowed, since the last General Election.

In 2017, “the tipping point age” – the median age at which a voter is more likely to vote Conservative than Labour – was 47 years old. The report establishes that, since the election, “the tipping point” has risen by 4 years to 51 years old.

The Conservative age curve is getting steeper. Among 18–24-year-olds, 14% said they would vote Conservative if there was an election today. 62% said they would vote Labour. 9% of this group said they would vote for the Liberal Democrats.

Among those over 65 years old, the opposite was true, 56% of respondents said they would vote Conservative, against 24% for Labour. The only groups with a net positive vote for Conservatives are 55–64s and voters over the age of 65.

Projecting the results of the survey forward to 2022 shows that the Conservatives face a wipeout in Wales.

If age continues to be a predictor of vote intention, the Conservatives are also in trouble in London. For example, Putney, which has a majority of just 3.3%, has 2.6 younger people for every older person. Other Conservative seats potentially affected by the demographic shift include the Cities of London and Westminster, Hendon, Chelsea and Fulham, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip (currently held by would-be PM Boris Johnson).

According to Onward, the dissonance between different age groups largely down to the Conservatives’ failure to win over younger voters. 28% of under-35s would consider voting Conservative, but fewer than 17% say they would do so if an election were held today. Onward says that this amounts to 3 million voters young Conservative considerers which could be won over but currently would not vote for the party.

Polling among the younger age group suggests that on some policies, the Conservatives could be knocking on an open door. 18-24s are most in favour (63%) of keeping more of their own money and paying less tax. However, they also favour making the economy fairer, not just bigger. Nearly two-thirds of people favour “reducing the gap between rich and poor” over “working to create faster economic growth”, with 18-24s most in favour (67%).

On immigration, there is net support for reducing immigration in every age bracket, within every ethnic group, and among Remain voters.

In terms of priorities, the environment is the third top issue for 18-24-year-old voters and younger voters.

Notably, immigration is of far lesser importance to younger voters than older ones, a reverse of the position on welfare benefits, about which older voters are far less exercised. All age groups regard the NHS and Brexit as the top two priorities.

A disconcerting gap is rising in the Conservatives’ appeal to female voters. Only 8% of 18-24-year-old women would vote Conservative today, which correlates heavily with pessimism: 56% of women think the next generation will be worse off than their own. Meanwhile, Asian voters (42%) are nearly as likely to consider voting Conservative as White voters (44%), but only half as many would do so today.

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Politics

Chairs want impact assessment reform

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SIIAs, or Strategic Integrated Impact Assessments, to give them their full name, can affect everyone in Wales.

The Welsh Government publishes SIIAs alongside its draft budgets to show how funding allocations will affect particular services or sections of society.

An SIIA could show the impact a particular health programme is expected to have on young people, or how money dedicated to a work programme will benefit people from poorer areas affected by poverty.

In 2015-16 the Welsh Government consolidated a number of different types of impact assessments into one. An SIIA assesses the impact of budget decisions on:

• Equalities and human rights;
• Children’s rights;
• The Welsh language;
• Climate change;
• Rural proofing;
• Health;
• Biodiversity; and,
• Economic development.

Concerns have been raised in previous years about the quality and detail of impact assessments, which is what prompted a concurrent inquiry by three National Assembly committees.

Among the concerns was a belief that, in some cases, there is a lack of clarity about what has actually been assessed. The Welsh Government also only publishes the results of impact assessments but not the detail from which their conclusions are drawn.

There are further concerns the current process is the ‘wrong way round’, with factors such as children’s rights and equalities appearing to be used as tools to justify spending, rather than demonstrating how those factors influenced decision-making.

The Children, Young People and Education Committee, Equality, Local Government and Communities Committee and the Finance Committee looked at how the Welsh Government plans for future spending and how it assesses the impact of its budgetary decisions.

The Committees jointly concluded that the Welsh Government should go back to fundamental principles. That the focus should be ‘what approach will be most effective’, rather than ‘which element of the assessment is the most important?’

The Committees agreed the Welsh Government needs to be clear about why it conducts an assessment, who uses it and what they hope to understand from it.

They believe for impact assessments to have any value, they must meaningfully inform how funding is allocated to which areas. The Committees did not believe that there was sufficient evidence of this happening at the moment.

The Committees also want to see a transparent account of the negative, as well as the positive impacts of budget allocations, so a full picture can be considered. They stated that honesty about the difficult trade-offs that have to be made is essential for public confidence in decision-making, especially in the current economic climate.

In a joint statement, the three Chairs of the Committees, Lynne Neagle AM, John Griffiths AM and Llyr Gruffydd AM said: “In recent years each of our committees has had something to say about budget impact assessments. We felt the time had come to work together to shine a joint spotlight on this, with a particular focus – given our respective remits – on the impact of budget decisions on equalities, children and young people.

“We believe SIIAs should be used to inform, steer and influence change. We are concerned that they appear to be used currently to reflect or justify decisions which have already been made.

“Furthermore, we are concerned by what appears to be a growing tendency to pass responsibility for impact assessments to local bodies such as health boards or local authorities, for which there is no legislative basis.

“We recognise that assessing the impact of budget discussions is no mean feat, but for impact assessments to have any value, they must meaningfully inform financial allocations – as things stand, it is not clear to us that the way in which they are undertaken delivers that aim.”

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