ON MONDAY, the Conservative think-tank Onward published a report into generational voting patterns, policy priorities and political values.
The report considers why age has become the key dividing line in British politics, what has happened since the last general election, and what can be done to win over millions of younger people deserting the centre-right in considerable numbers.
The report follows a detailed 10,000 sample poll, conducted by Hanbury Strategy. It is the largest study of the generation gap since age became the key political dividing line in British politics.
Younger and older voters have always been politically different, but never by this much
In 2017, the gap between younger and older voters was 50 points larger than the post-war average since 1945 and five times higher than in 2010. It started, in 2015 before Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn became the leader of the Labour Party. This gap has grown, not narrowed, since the last General Election.
In 2017, “the tipping point age” – the median age at which a voter is more likely to vote Conservative than Labour – was 47 years old. The report establishes that, since the election, “the tipping point” has risen by 4 years to 51 years old.
The Conservative age curve is getting steeper. Among 18–24-year-olds, 14% said they would vote Conservative if there was an election today. 62% said they would vote Labour. 9% of this group said they would vote for the Liberal Democrats.
Among those over 65 years old, the opposite was true, 56% of respondents said they would vote Conservative, against 24% for Labour. The only groups with a net positive vote for Conservatives are 55–64s and voters over the age of 65.
Projecting the results of the survey forward to 2022 shows that the Conservatives face a wipeout in Wales.
If age continues to be a predictor of vote intention, the Conservatives are also in trouble in London. For example, Putney, which has a majority of just 3.3%, has 2.6 younger people for every older person. Other Conservative seats potentially affected by the demographic shift include the Cities of London and Westminster, Hendon, Chelsea and Fulham, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip (currently held by would-be PM Boris Johnson).
According to Onward, the dissonance between different age groups largely down to the Conservatives’ failure to win over younger voters. 28% of under-35s would consider voting Conservative, but fewer than 17% say they would do so if an election were held today. Onward says that this amounts to 3 million voters young Conservative considerers which could be won over but currently would not vote for the party.
Polling among the younger age group suggests that on some policies, the Conservatives could be knocking on an open door. 18-24s are most in favour (63%) of keeping more of their own money and paying less tax. However, they also favour making the economy fairer, not just bigger. Nearly two-thirds of people favour “reducing the gap between rich and poor” over “working to create faster economic growth”, with 18-24s most in favour (67%).
On immigration, there is net support for reducing immigration in every age bracket, within every ethnic group, and among Remain voters.
In terms of priorities, the environment is the third top issue for 18-24-year-old voters and younger voters.
Notably, immigration is of far lesser importance to younger voters than older ones, a reverse of the position on welfare benefits, about which older voters are far less exercised. All age groups regard the NHS and Brexit as the top two priorities.
A disconcerting gap is rising in the Conservatives’ appeal to female voters. Only 8% of 18-24-year-old women would vote Conservative today, which correlates heavily with pessimism: 56% of women think the next generation will be worse off than their own. Meanwhile, Asian voters (42%) are nearly as likely to consider voting Conservative as White voters (44%), but only half as many would do so today.
Meeting to take place to discuss impact of Brexit on Pembrokeshire and west Wales.
PEMBROKESHIRE for Europe will be holding an open meeting at the Bloomfield Centre, Narberth on 19 September at 7pm on the impact of Brexit on Pembrokeshire and West Wales. Three distinguished speakers will give their perspectives on the impact of Brexit on Pembrokeshire and West Wales:-
Edward Perkins will speak about the impact on agriculture. Edward has enjoyed a long career as auctioneer and valuer for over 50 years. This has involved close contact with the agricultural industry on a wide variety of activities. Although based in West Wales his work has taken him to most parts of Wales an on various activities in Europe in the agricultural field. He has served many organisations and committees including 10 years on the Secretary of State advisory committee on agriculture. He has provided replies to many agricultural consultation papers. He is currently a consultant to the Edward H Perkins firm of rural surveyors and agricultural valuers.
Jeremy Percy will speak about the impact on fishing. Jeremy has been crew, skipper and owner of a variety of fishing vessels and was previously Deputy Director of the South Wales Sea Fisheries Committee and CEO to the Low Impact Fishers of Europe platform when he represented the interests of the small scale commercial fishermen across 16 european member states. He is currently director of the New Under Ten Fishermen’s Association in these challenging times for the UK’s fishing industry.
Gwyn Evans, Brexit Lead Officer for Pembrokeshire County Council will speak about the preparations the Council is making. In 2018 Gwyn developed the methodology behind the Brexit impact log that has since been adopted by numerous Councils across Wales and England. Since then he has been working with colleagues in Pembrokeshire and beyond on Brexit preparations and earlier this year was part of a Welsh Local Government Association delegation to Cornwall examining Brexit preparedness. Gwyn is a Chartered Secretary and Accounting Technician with considerable experience working on EU regional policy. He has worked in local government since 1982.
We have also invited a representative from the Welsh Government.
Alistair Cameron from Pembrokeshire for Europe said: “Since joining the Common Market in the 1970s, Pembrokeshire together with the rest of Wales and Britain has benefited through frictionless trade with over 300 million customers in the EU. Our ferries at Fishguard and Pembroke Dock enjoy easy access to Ireland. Also thanks to our membership of the European Union, we benefit from free trade agreements with over 50 countries around the world.”
We are organising this meeting to discuss the benefits of EU membership to Pembrokeshire and West Wales and also the risks of Brexit. Everyone is welcome to come to this open meeting to ask questions and take part in the discussion.
Disabled people hit hardest by changes to benefits
CHANGES to the welfare system over the past ten years have left disabled adults four times worse off financially than non-disabled adults, according to new research commissioned by the Disability Benefit Consortium, a coalition of over 80 UK disability organisations.
While many people who receive welfare support have experienced cuts of an average of £300 as a result of changes to the welfare system, disabled people have typically lost around £1,200 per year.
. The research, funded by the Three Guineas Trust, is the first comprehensive study looking specifically at the cumulative impact of welfare changes on disabled people, and conducted by the University of East Anglia, the University of Glasgow and Landman Economics.
The research also found:
. The more disabilities you have the more you lose out, for example someone who has six or more disabilities loses over £2,100 each year on average, whereas someone with one disability loses around £700 each year.
Households with one disabled adult and one disabled child lose out the most, with average losses of over £4,300 per year.
Today’s report by the Disability Benefits Consortium (DBC), ‘Has welfare become unfair – the impact of changes on disabled people’, which is based on this research, looks at the financial impact and lived experiences of welfare reform on disabled people over the past ten years.
As part of the research, 50 people living with a variety of conditions and disabilities were interviewed about their experiences. People said that they found the application and assessment processes highly stressful, and that they did not feel trusted, and constantly challenged.
The DBC also state that the current system has become so complex and dysfunctional, that many disabled people have found it has had a devastating impact on their wider health and wellbeing.
Pam McGee, 48, from Kent, was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS) in 1994, which severely impacts her mobility. After a PIP assessment in 2017 she lost the higher rates for both the mobility and daily living components, which means her support was cut by £290 a month and she no longer qualifies for a Motability car. She’s now appealing the decision and says the stress caused by this process has impacted her health. She said: “If I lost my car, I don’t know how I’d carry on. I’m terrified I’ll be out of a job because without the car I won’t be able to get anywhere. If I can’t work at the age of 48, I would lose all of my pride. People always ask ‘What’s your name and what do you do?’ My job is what defines me.
“In the last 10 weeks I’ve had a massive relapse. I went dizzy and lost all feeling in my left leg. When I spoke to my neurologist he said the relapse was probably caused by stress. I’ve also been depressed and eating less.
“PIP has caused me and my family a lot of anxiety and stress. It’s caused my MS symptoms to worsen, which has reduced my mobility, confidence, and ability to take care of myself physically as well as mentally.”
The DBC say that the failure to include disability premiums as part of Universal Credit, and poorly designed assessment criteria are just two examples of the problems that are leaving disabled people worse off and is calling on the Government to make urgent improvements to the welfare system to ensure it works for everyone.
Michael Griffin, Research Lead for the DBC and Senior Policy Adviser at Parkinson’s UK, said: “For the first time, our research has shown just how much disabled people are bearing the brunt of the disastrous changes to welfare.
“Many disabled people have not yet even experienced the full extent of the cuts because they are still waiting to be moved over to Universal Credit. However, when this happens there will be a surge in poverty among those who are already at a crisis point.
“This is simply disgraceful and cannot be allowed to continue. The Government must make urgent improvements to the application processes and assessment criteria, and resolve the flaws in Universal Credit before more people are denied the support they desperately need to live independently.”
Carers Week: Eluned Morgan AM says thanks to carers everywhere
by Eluned Morgan AM
WE’VE just celebrated ‘Carers Week’; an opportunity to say a massive ‘Thank You’ to all carers everywhere. No matter what age you are, who you care for and support, where you live or how much time it takes, every act of caring matters and deserves to be recognised.
Every day, people start caring for the first time. Carers are often hidden from view – putting their own health and wellbeing to the back of the queue. Many can become socially isolated, and some face financial pressures as a result of juggling work life with caring responsibilities.
We know that there are at least 370,000 carers in Wales (that’s more than the population of Cardiff) and that three in five of us will undertaking a caring role at some point in our lives. The latest census revealed that there were at least 15,000 carers in Pembrokeshire, a figure that probably underestimates reality.
I had the opportunity to meet carers from across the region in an event organised by Carers UK at the National Assembly. It became apparent from my conversations that, for many, it is a challenge to know how or where to get help. Caring can creep up unnoticed: for many, it begins with parents suddenly being unable to manage alone, or a partner’s health gradually becoming worse.
But it is important to know that there is support available and people shouldn’t put off asking for help. Organisations like Carers UK are there to listen, to give expert information and advice, tailored to your situation, to champion your rights and support you in finding new ways to manage at home, at work, or wherever you are.
If you know someone who could benefit from some help, please spread the word. We can all play our part in recognising and celebrating the essential contributions carers make, sharing information about caring support services within our local communities.
Milford’s sixth form could be axed
MILFORD Haven School’s sixth form could be the latest to be axed following a consultation period. At the Council meeting...
Crabb slams Barclays Post Office cash opt-out
PRESELI MP Stephen Crabb has criticised Barclays Bank’s ‘short-sighted’ decision not to allow its customers to withdraw cash from Post...
Work set to begin on multi-million pound redevelopment at Llys-y-Frân Reservoir
WELSH Water is set to begin work on the highly anticipated redevelopment of Llys-y-Frân visitor attraction and recreation park, following...
Pembroke: Yet another demonstration planned for Ashdale Lane over sex offender
PROTESTERS are promising another demonstration in Ashdale Lane, in Pembroke tonight (Sun, Oct 6). It will mark the fourth night...
Community order for Pembroke Dock man who downloaded 6570 child abuse images
A 46-YEAR-OLD man who downloaded over 6,500 indecent images of children, has narrowly missed going to jail. Brett Johnson on...
Rescued Falcon released back into the wild
THE oil-covered peregrine falcon rescued in August from Tenby was released back into the wild on Wednesday (Oct 2). At...
Milford Haven: Hundreds gather to remember firefighter Josh
MILFORD HAVEN came to a standstill on Tuesday (Oct 1) as hundreds gathered to pay their respects to popular firefighter...
Man accused of fathering six children with his daughter
A FATHER from south west Wales has gone on trial accused of raping his daughter 23 times and having six...
Thomas Cook air hostess speaks to The Herald about her journey
WITH grounded flights and cancelled holidays, it’s been a stressful time since the collapse of Thomas Cook on Monday (Sept...
Llanfyrnach: Community wind turbine was more than a decade in the making
AFTER a long and bumpy journey, a community group from North Pembrokeshire are finally about to install a 700kW wind...
Popular This Week
News5 days ago
Crabb slams Barclays Post Office cash opt-out
News6 days ago
Pembrokeshire turns pink and blue for Baby Loss Awareness week
News1 day ago
42 new officers for Dyfed Powys Police in the first wave of police recruitment
News2 days ago
Milford’s sixth form could be axed
News2 days ago
Tariff concerns for Valero Oil Refinery
News2 days ago
Totally Welsh set for expansion
News2 days ago
Are you someone who could provide a loving and safe home for children currently in care?
Sport6 days ago
Impressive win for Mikey