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Politics

Snap election builds in unfairness

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A SNAP General Election is unlikely to break the break deadlock, the Electoral Reform Society has warned
The ERS says results are likely to be ‘clear as mud’ when it comes to translating voters’ preferences, with ‘vote-splitting, wasted votes and unfair results on an industrial scale’.
One in four (24%) voters are planning on voting ‘tactically’ – rather than for their first choice – increasing the likelihood of random results under Westminster’s winner-takes-all voting system, according to BMG polling for the Society.
When the same question was asked before the 2017 general election, 20% of people said they’d opt for someone who was not their first choice.
Westminster’s voting system rests on a handful of marginals changing hands: “Eleven seats were won by less than 100 votes in 2017. North East Fife was held by the SNP by just two votes. Such are the vagaries of the system that the Conservatives could have won an absolute majority based on just 533 extra votes in the nine most marginal constituencies.
“A working majority could have been achieved on just 75 additional votes in the right places. Two very different outcomes based on less than 0.0017 per cent of voters choosing differently,” the Society’s 2017 election report noted.
Darren Hughes, Chief Executive of the Electoral Reform Society, said: “Few believe a third General Election in the space of four years will ‘fix’ the current impasse: the only agreement seems to be that there is yet more volatility coming our way, with parties hoping to gain from the chaos.
“It’s amusing to remember that Westminster’s voting system is supposed to deliver ‘strong and stable’ government. It has totally failed to do what it says on the tin, and no wonder – people are rightly shopping around, but this two-party system is totally unable to cope.
“This election is likely to see ‘tactical’ voting on a scale never seen before, alongside widespread ‘vote-splitting’ and candidates getting in on fractions of the vote.
“First Past the Post voting is now an engine of volatility, which could make the current problems even worse. We could see a ‘wrong winner’ election – where the biggest party did not win the most votes – another hung parliament, and wasted votes in the millions. It’s time to join other advanced democracies in backing a fair voting system where seats match votes.
“This must be the last election conducted using Westminster’s scandalously unfair electoral system. It’s time for Westminster catch up with the rest of the world, with proportional representation and an end to the disaster of winner-takes-all voting.
“Whatever the case, this election will be a ‘hold your nose’ ballot, with one in four feeling forced to vote tactically for their second or third choice.
“A snap election guarantees nothing but an unfair lottery for voters. Let’s build a democracy fit for the 21st century, with an electoral system that encourages cooperation, not gridlock.”
ERS analysis of the 2017 election found that millions of people’s votes were thrown on the electoral scrapheap. 68% of votes had no impact on the result – representing 22 million votes going to waste.
Professor Sir John Curtice told LBC today that this election is likely to see a very high number of votes for parties other than the traditional ‘big two’.
In June, he told the ERS: “There is little doubt that Britain’s traditional two-party system is facing its biggest challenge yet in the wake of the Brexit impasse. If that challenge persists it would seem inevitable that there will renewed debate about the merits of the first-past-the-post electoral system.”
The latest YouGov poll puts Labour and the Conservatives on joint support of 59% – far below their 82% reached in 2017.
The ERS is calling for a proportional voting system for Westminster, the Single Transferable Vote system used for Scotland’s local elections and elections in Ireland.
The warped nature of the system is reflected by the fact that in 2017 it took 43,000 votes to elect a Conservative MP, 49,000 for Labour, nearly 200,000 per Lib Dem and over 500,000 votes for the Greens’ single MP. It took just 28,000 votes per SNP MP and 29,000 per DUP MP. The SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru and Liberal Democrats support PR.

 

Education

Pembrokeshire respiratory project praised at the Senedd

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AN INNOVATIVE Pembrokeshire scheme improving asthma care for primary school children has been recognised at an event held at the Senedd on Monday (Jan 27).

The Pembrokeshire Schools Respiratory Project, which has been running since 2023 across North and South Pembrokeshire school clusters, delivers in-school respiratory reviews and education sessions for pupils, parents and teaching staff. It is believed to be the first programme of its kind in Wales.

Samuel Kurtz met with project lead, Narberth-based pharmacist Dave Edwards, along with representatives from Asthma + Lung UK to mark the project’s success.

Mr Edwards said respiratory conditions place a significant burden on children and their families, as well as on the wider healthcare system.

“Our aim is to confirm diagnoses, educate pupils and parents about their condition, emphasise adherence and inhaler technique, and ensure every child has a personalised treatment plan that gives them good control,” he said. “This project demonstrates how local health initiatives can make a real difference.”

As part of the scheme, Year 5 and Year 6 pupils received sessions on the dangers of smoking and vaping, highlighting the impact of these habits on respiratory health. Parents and school staff were offered training aligned with the National Review of Asthma Deaths recommendations and delivered through the ‘Asthma Fit’ programme.

The sessions covered common childhood respiratory illnesses, recognising asthma symptoms, correct inhaler technique, the features of good asthma control, and the importance of having clear action plans for worsening symptoms.

Schools participating in the ‘Asthma Fit’ programme have introduced strengthened asthma policies, including appointing a designated asthma lead, maintaining an up-to-date inhaler register, implementing individual asthma action plans, and ensuring staff are trained to respond quickly and appropriately to attacks.

The project also aligns with national guidance, including the RCP’s National Review of Asthma Deaths report, NHS England’s National Bundle of Care for Children and Young People with Asthma, and the All Wales Paediatric Asthma Guidelines.

To date, 583 children have been reviewed, with more than 65% showing improved asthma control scores. Treatment has been optimised for 65% of pupils, contributing to fewer hospital and out-of-hours visits. The project has also delivered environmental benefits, with carbon savings estimated to be equivalent to more than 70,000 car miles.

In the Autumn Term 2025 alone, 75 pupils received reviews, personalised action plans and inhaler education.

Mr Kurtz said: “I am delighted to celebrate the success of this Pembrokeshire project in the Senedd. It has helped children, parents and schools manage asthma better, easing the burden on GPs and emergency care. Behind every statistic is a real child seeing real improvement.

“I am extremely proud that a Pembrokeshire-based project is leading the way in asthma management and acting as a flagship for other areas across the UK. I am also pleased to hear that plans are already in place to expand the initiative to more schools over the next two years — it thoroughly deserves continued support.”

 

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News

Darren Millar rules out post-election pact with Reform or Plaid

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Welsh Tory leader says “only deal is with the people of Wales” ahead of May Senedd vote

THE LEADER of the Welsh Conservatives has moved to shut down speculation about post-election alliances, insisting he will not enter into any agreement with either Reform UK or Plaid Cymru following May’s Senedd election.

Speaking ahead of his party’s spring conference in Llandudno on Friday (Feb 13), Darren Millar is expected to tell members that the only mandate he is seeking is directly from voters.

He will say that if people choose the Welsh Conservatives at the ballot box, they will get a Conservative administration — not a coalition stitched together after the votes are counted.

His stance mirrors comments previously made by UK Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who has argued that parties discussing deals before polling day are not focused on delivering for the public.

Reform dismissed as “not ready for power”

With opinion polls suggesting Reform could perform strongly in May, Mr Millar is set to acknowledge that some voters may feel drawn to the party, but he will question whether it is prepared to shoulder the responsibility of governing.

He is expected to argue that Reform has no credible pathway to running the Welsh Government, pointing to past controversies within its Welsh leadership and questioning the substance of its policy platform.

Reform’s UK leader, Nigel Farage, has previously suggested the party’s immediate aim is to become a significant opposition force rather than take office — a position the Welsh Conservatives say underlines its lack of readiness for government.

Darren Millar: The Welsh Conservative leader has ruled out any post-election pact with Reform UK or Plaid Cymru ahead of May’s Senedd vote

Plaid branded “focused on separation”

Turning to Plaid Cymru, Mr Millar will accuse the party of propping up Labour in the Senedd while attempting to present itself as an alternative.

He is expected to claim that Plaid’s long-term goal of Welsh independence overshadows its domestic agenda, arguing that constitutional change — rather than bread-and-butter issues — remains its central objective.

According to Mr Millar, a Plaid-led government would prioritise breaking away from the United Kingdom, a move he says would create economic uncertainty and put pensions, cross-border employment and public finances at risk.

Labour record under fire

The Welsh Conservative leader will also target Welsh Labour, which has governed Wales since devolution.

He is set to argue that after nearly three decades in power, Labour’s record on the NHS, schools and the economy has left Wales lagging behind other parts of the UK.

Among the issues likely to be raised are long NHS waiting lists, concerns about educational standards and rising unemployment figures.

Mr Millar will also reference recent remarks by First Minister Eluned Morgan about supporting the hospitality sector — comments that drew headlines — suggesting that economic challenges facing Welsh businesses run far deeper than consumer habits.

Election battle lines drawn

With polling indicating that the contest in May could be highly competitive, the Welsh Conservatives are positioning themselves as the only alternative to what they describe as “27 years of Labour failure”, while rejecting both nationalist and populist rivals.

Whether that message resonates with voters across Pembrokeshire and the wider west Wales region remains to be seen.

 

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Health

NHS pay row erupts as ministers confirm 3.3% rise

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Unions warn award amounts to real-terms cut as inflation remains above headline figure

NHS staff across Wales will receive a 3.3% consolidated pay increase from April 1, 2026, after the Welsh Government accepted recommendations from the 39th NHS Pay Review Body.

The uplift applies to all staff employed under Agenda for Change terms and conditions, including nurses, healthcare assistants, porters, cleaners and other frontline health workers.

Health and Social Care Secretary Jeremy Miles said the award followed independent economic advice and was above current inflation forecasts issued by the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility.

He said inflation was expected to fall progressively towards the two percent target by early 2027 and described the settlement as fair and responsible within the current financial climate.

Lowest-paid staff

The Welsh Government confirmed that its commitment to pay the Real Living Wage from April 2026 means the lowest-paid NHS staff will see increases ranging from 3.8% to 5.9%.

However, it was also noted that Bands 1 and 2 and the entry point of Band 3 will remain on the same pay rate from April because the previously announced living wage uplift already exceeds the Pay Review Body recommendation.

Ministers said discussions will continue alongside England and Northern Ireland on structural reforms to the Agenda for Change framework, with any agreed changes backdated to April 2026.

Union anger

The announcement prompted sharp criticism from health unions, who argue that with inflation currently at 4.2%, many staff will still see a reduction in real-terms pay.

The Royal College of Nursing described the award as “very disappointing” and said it falls short of commitments to restore nursing pay to 2008 levels.

RCN Wales Executive Director Helen Whyley said: “At a time when the cost of living remains high another real term pay cut is being imposed again on a workforce already stretched to its limits.”

She also criticised the continued use of the Pay Review Body process after unions had raised expectations of direct negotiations.

Meanwhile, UNISON Cymru said health workers are likely to be angry at what it called “another below inflation pay award”.

UNISON Cymru health committee chair Dawn Ward said some NHS staff were struggling with rising household bills and felt undervalued.

The union has called for Wales to move towards a Scottish-style model of direct pay negotiations between government, employers and unions.

Political pressure

The pay announcement is likely to intensify debate about NHS funding, recruitment and retention across Wales.

While ministers argue the settlement reflects economic forecasts and financial constraints, unions maintain that headline percentages do not reflect the pressures facing frontline staff.

With morale described as fragile and vacancies continuing across Welsh health boards, the dispute is expected to remain politically sensitive in the months ahead.

 

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