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Politics

First Welsh poll of year shows ‘Boris Bounce’

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PROFESSOR Roger Awan Scully writes: As the UK stands on the verge of leaving the European Union, voters are currently rewarding the man who has led them to this point, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His Conservative Party is at historic levels of support in Wales, and potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election. There are the key messages to emerge from the first Welsh Political Barometer poll of 2020, the first since the general election.
Our new poll, as is typically the case, asked about voting intentions for both Westminster and the National Assembly. For the first time, though, and in light of the recent legislation that has given 16 and 17-year-olds the right to vote in devolved elections in Wales, our sample included a representative number from that age group; they are not included in the vote intention estimates for a general election discussed below, but they are included in the estimates for the Assembly.

First, Westminster. After the strong Conservative performance in December and the further boost they have had in post-election polls conducted across Britain, it is no surprise to see the Tories doing well in our latest poll. Here are the numbers (with changes on our last pre-election Barometer poll, conducted in early December, in brackets):

Conservatives: 41% (+4)
Labour: 36% (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-2)
Greens: 2% (+1)
Others: 1 (no change)

These are historically good figures for the Conservatives in Wales. Their 41 percent support equals the highest rating they have obtained in general election voting intention this century. Labour, by contrast, see their support slip since the general election. Plaid Cymru will be reasonably pleased with a modest rise in their support; all other parties, however, are at very low levels of support.

What might such support levels for the parties mean in terms of parliamentary seats? Using the standard method, of projecting the swings since the last general election indicated by this poll uniformly across Wales, gives us the following outcome in terms of seats (with projected changes from the December result in brackets):

Labour: 18 (-4)
Conservatives: 18 (+4)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)

In short, this poll projects the Conservative to retain all six seats that they gained from Labour at the general election, and on top of that to gain four more ones: Alyn and Deeside, Gower, Newport East and Newport West. All other seats are projected to be won by the party that was victorious in December.

But it is not only changes at Westminster that are suggested by our new poll.

As well as Westminster, we also asked once again about voting intentions for both the constituency and the regional ballots in a devolved election. Here are the figures for the constituency ballot (with shifts in support since our December Barometer poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 35% (+4)
Labour: 33% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Brexit Party: 4% (-3)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Others: 1% (no change)

These numbers (which include figures for 16 and 17-year-old voters, something that marginally reduces the Conservative lead) show that the current post-election boost to Conservative fortunes is not just confined to Westminster. The 35 percent support reported for the Conservatives is actually their highest ever reported vote intention for the constituency vote in an Assembly election. If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election our new Barometer poll projects the Tories to gain eight constituency seats from Labour: these are (in order of current marginality) the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Newport West, and Delyn). There are no other projected constituency seat changes.

For the regional list vote, the new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes since our December poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 32% (+4)
Labour: 32% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Greens: 3% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-4)
Others: 5% (+1)

These regional vote figures once more have the Welsh Conservatives equalling their best-ever showing, from early May 2017. Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once more assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
Regions:

North Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
These figures therefore generate the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:
Labour: 24 seats (19 constituency, 5 regional)
Conservatives: 22 seats (14 constituency, 8 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituencies, 7 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)

Since the inaugural election to the National Assembly in 1999, Labour has always much been the largest party in the chamber. Our new poll indicates that, around fifteen months from the next devolved election in Wales, we are currently on course for a rather different type of politics in what will soon to be known as Senedd Cymru/the Welsh Parliament.
Overall, our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll suggests that these are good times in which to be a Welsh Conservative. Indeed, those times have never been better: on all three vote intention measures, the party is equalling or exceeding the best ratings they have ever scored before. But if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted. Last May the Welsh Tories scored only 6.5 percent of the vote in the European elections; now they are buoyant. Within another few months, who knows where things will be?

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News

Too many children in Wales living in poverty – Lib Dems want action

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THIS week in the Senedd, the Welsh Liberal Democrats renewed their demands for the implementation of child poverty targets.

According to a report from the Bevan foundation, 29% of children living in Wales are currently experiencing poverty (an estimated 190,000 children).

The same report highlighted that the largest percentage of children living in poverty are from working households or in couple households.

The Welsh Lib Dems are now renewing calls for the Welsh Government to create a set of targets for reducing child poverty, which the party argues will allow for more accountability.

The party has previously called for the implementation of targets, citing recommendations from the Calling Time on Child Poverty Report published in November last year.

Commenting, the Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds MS said: “The latest statistics on childhood poverty in Wales paints a very distressing image of families across the country struggling to make ends meet.

Over the course of the last six years, the proportion of children in poverty has skyrocketed. Fuelled by worsening economic conditions and a complete lack of action from both governments in Westminster and Cardiff Bay.

We cannot act complacent about these figures nor accept the clear lack of progress in fighting child poverty, behind each statistic is a child that the state has failed.

It remains painfully clear that the Welsh Government is failing to make any meaningful progress in this fight, which is why they must follow through with the implementation of clear set targets that will allow for further accountability.

We as a party have continuously called for the creation of these targets and we will not be silenced. For the sake of future generations we urge the Welsh Government to listen.”

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Education

Conservative calls for academies and free schools rejected by Senedd

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THE SENEDD has rejected calls to introduce free schools and academies after a report found major challenges in Wales’ education system.

Tom Giffard led a Conservative debate on educational attainment, warning that Wales is consistently at the bottom of UK-wide league tables.

The party’s new shadow education secretary pointed to an Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) report on education in Wales which found low outcomes and high levels of inequality.

Mr Giffard told the Senedd the IFS report highlights the pitfalls of the Welsh Government putting all its eggs in the basket of a skills-based approach.

Criticising a failure to measure skills inequalities and pupil progress, he stressed that Wales’ lower performance is due to policy and approach rather than funding or the pandemic.

He said: “It seems the Welsh Government relies on Pisa results to tell the story but then, when those same results are all too disappointing, they are dismissed in equal measure.”

Mr Giffard, who previously worked in a primary school, said declines in Pisa results can be observed in almost every country that has adopted a skills-based approach.

Raising concerns about disappointing Pisa results, the South Wales West MS pointed out that Wales saw the lowest scores in the UK for every subject.

Heledd Fychan, Plaid Cymru’s shadow education secretary, warned that Wales’ schools are understaffed and facing difficult decisions due to budgets being at breaking point.

She criticised implementation of the Welsh Government’s additional learning needs (ALN) reforms, saying schools cannot realise the aims without the budget to bring them to life.

Ms Fychan said Plaid Cymru agreed with much of the Tory motion but her party would not support calls for free schools and academies.

Sam Rowlands described the IFS report as damning, warning that the Welsh Government’s education reforms have been disastrous and have widened inequality.

The Tory MS claimed the reforms are systematically holding back disadvantaged children, saying: “The most remarkable fact is that the performance of disadvantaged children in England is either above or similar to the average for all children in Wales.”

Mr Rowlands added: “The poorest in England’s schools are doing the same or better than the Welsh average, thanks to ambition, the academies and free schools.”

Samuel Kurtz, a fellow Tory, said free schools and academies have driven up standards in England as he argued a Wales roll-out provides an opportunity to improve outcomes.

James Evans, the Conservative MS for Brecon and Radnorshire, highlighted the party’s pledge to get 5,000 more teachers into Wales’ classrooms.

Buffy Williams, the newly elected chair of the Senedd’s education committee, said Wales is undergoing a profound transformation propelled by ALN and curriculum reforms.

The Labour MS for Rhondda stressed the importance of listening to teachers and allowing ample time for the reforms to take root in classrooms across Wales.

Altaf Hussain recounted a conversation he had this week with a headteacher at one of the largest schools in his South Wales West region.

The Conservative said: “The major improvements they have been delivering to attainment and addressing behavioural issues are all at risk because of cuts to funding.

“Vital work undertaken to improve the lives of young people with additional needs could be halted because they cannot afford to continue employing the support workers.”

Lynne Neagle recognised the scale and seriousness of work still ahead to improve Wales’ education system, stressing: “I am not, in any way, complacent about that task.”

Wales’ newly appointed education secretary, who takes over from Jeremy Miles, said sustained improvement in attainment will be among her top priorities.

She told the chamber: “My early focus has been to listen closely to schools and where it is clear that schools seek more scaffolding.”

Ms Neagle said the Welsh Government will work with trade unions and employers to reduce workload and eliminate unnecessary red tape.

The Conservative motion was voted down, 14-35, following the debate on April 24. The motion as amended by the Welsh Government was agreed, 26-23.

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Climate

£1m turbine application to be decided by all councillors at County Hall

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A TWICE-BACKED £1m scheme for a “20-storey-high” wind turbine at a Pembrokeshire mansion will have to be decided by all councillors.

Mr and Mrs Glen Peters of Western Solar Ltd are seeking permission for a single turbine on land near the Grade II-listed Rhosygilwen Mansion, which includes an arts and functions building known as Neuaddydderwen.

Members of the April meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council’s planning committee were recommended to refuse the scheme, despite backing it at their March meeting.

This backing meant the application returned to the April meeting for ratification after a ‘cooling off’ period; the application having been deferred at the January meeting pending a site visit.

It was initially recommended for refusal in January for several reasons, including potential harm to the setting of the Grade-II-listed house and grounds, and fears of threats to the safe operation of West Wales Airport at Aberporth in neighbouring Ceredigion, some 9.5 kilometres away.

The last concern was later withdrawn.

In papers ahead of the April meeting, officers, again recommending refusal, have said the scheme “would not protect or enhance the setting [of Rhosygilwen] but rather would result in significant harm to this interest of acknowledged importance”.

They have also warned any backing of the scheme against policy recommendations could set a precedent for similar developments.

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