Politics

Brexit: not the least surprised

Published

6 years ago

July 23, 2020

IF it was a tiger that went in the tank, as enthusiastically advocated by Prime Minister Johnson, it was a paper tiger. And all that does is clog up the filters and prevent the engine running. Furthermore, cleaning out the debris is a difficult and expensive job.

But that’s always the same with Johnson. He bounces onto the stage, utters some singularly inappropriate phrases, prattles incoherently for a while and then buggers off to let everyone else – anyone else – sort out the details that he can’t be bothered with (which is all of them).

And so it has come to pass that those “future relationship” talks, even with the “tiger in their tank”, have got absolutely nowhere and have broken up early over “serious” disagreements, with Michel Barnier complaining of “lack of respect and engagement by the UK”.

“Our goal was to get negotiations successfully and quickly on a trajectory to reach an agreement”, Barnier said in a statement. “However, after four days of discussions, serious divergences remain”.

That, of course, comes as absolutely no surprise. If there is any surprise to be had, it’s that the talks lasted as long as four days. There have never been any indications that Johnson has been serious about these talks, so the likelihood was always that they were going to break up in disarray.

NO NEW PROPOSALS FROM UK
Barnier says that Brussels had “listened carefully” to Johnson when he did his “thing” about tigers, and made vacuous noises about wanting a “political agreement” over the summer. And now that the talks have broken down, the recriminations flow, to the point where not much sense can be made of them.

We learn from Barnier, for instance, that the EU has recognised British “red lines”. These include the role of the ECJ, the refusal to be bound by EU law, and a fisheries agreement that recognises the UK’s sovereignty. It has thus hinted at several concessions, across the board.
This is matched by a complaint that the EU’s willingness to be flexible on its initial demands in light of the British positions had not been met with similar understanding from Downing Street over Brussels’ red lines. Downing Street needed to “reciprocate with new proposals”, the EU says.

David Frost, on the other hand, seems to be in the market for extruded verbal material, saying virtually nothing at some length. His big thing is that the British side still wants “an early understanding of the principles underlying an agreement”, which he hopes can be secured by the end of July.

SHIFTING THE BLAME
Oddly enough, the normally astute Denis Staunton for the Irish Times seems to think that the abrupt end to these talks was “not only surprising but perplexing”.

Perplexing it may be – nothing to do with Johnson is ever straightforward – but surprising it never was. The writing has been on the wall so long it is starting to fade.

Staunton, however, takes some comfort from “the language on both sides”. He says it was “restrained” and Frost’s had none of the belligerence that often characterises his rhetoric towards Brussels.

The fact that Barnier chose not to give a press conference, he says, was seen by some as another happy augury but Staunton says it wasn’t. Simply, he was deferring to Angela Merkel and Ursula von der Leyen, who gave a joint press conference later.

However, Barnier is also said to have accused British trade negotiators of “a lack of respect” and when von der Leyen and the German Chancellor got going, Merkel warned the EU Member States that they needed to be prepared for a no-deal TransEnd.

Why the tone of the two parties should thus give rise to such optimism isn’t immediately apparent. At this stage, with little to be gained either way – with only a very limited trade deal on the stocks, one of the greater concerns must be to establish a firm base for blame avoidance.

Barnier, in particular, will want to tell his domestic audience that the EU has gone the extra mile, not least because it then clears the way for the EU to do what it always does – screw the Brits.

A WEAK, UNLOVELY THING
Team Johnson, from the look of it, is away with the fairies anyway. And with Frost apparently trotting off to a new job at the end of the month (or not), he has good reasons for not starting a spat that he can’t finish.

But what makes this more than a little bit redundant – and so utterly tedious – is that we’re almost down to the level of two bald men fighting over a comb. Any deal done – if there is one done – must be measured not by what it includes but what is left out. So very little can be agreed in the time that anything delivered will be a weak, unlovely thing.

But the real giveaway is that the UK has yet to set out plans for how it wants an agreement to work, on areas as diverse its own state aid regime, to a fully functioning fishing policy.

Throughout the entire Brexit period the UK stance has been to let the EU make the running, and then knock down what it offers. There is only so much of that one can take before even the most patient of negotiators begins to feel they are being taken for mugs.

JOHNSON GOING THROUGH THE MOTIONS
Yet, on fishing, in particular, Barnier is saying that there needs to be a “sustainable and long-term solution” on fisheries, taking into account the needs of European fishermen for certainty over their livelihoods. An effective all-encompassing dispute settlement mechanism is also necessary, to ensure both sides stick to their obligations.

Here, the issue is – as it is elsewhere – that the British government doesn’t have the first idea of how to manage a modern fishery. The Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF) has given way to Defra, which doesn’t even have “fisheries” in its title. Any expertise there was in the department has long gone.

Something about which we haven’t been hearing much of late is also of importance – governance. A little while back, this was of some importance, with the EU wanting a single, over-arching agreement, with standard rules and institutions, and a common dispute procedure.
Now we don’t seem to hear so much of this, but that doesn’t mean it is no longer important. Most likely, Barnier has given up on trying to get any sense out of Team Johnson and is just going through the motions.

THE EU CAN WAIT
The thing for sure here is that he doesn’t need to throw his toys out of the pram. All he has to do is wait until after December 31, and watch the Brits having hissy-fits when they discover what being outside the internal market really means.

In time – and perhaps when there is a different administration – Barnier (or his successor) can come back and we can all start talking again. Then perhaps the UK will have people who are prepared to behave like adults and look anew at what sort of relationship we need with our closest neighbours.

Until then, we are going to see a lot of this sort of ritual dance. It may die down during the holiday period and pick up the tempo as the autumn turns to winter. And there may be a last flurry of activity in the dying days of December, although that will be for show. Any agreement has to be ratified, so a last-minute deal is not on the cards.

Meanwhile, there will be more talks next week. These will be in London, another session of face-to-face meetings. I don’t expect we’ll get much more out of them than we did this week. If we do, then that really will be a surprise.

This article is reproduced by kind permission of Dr Richard North from his blog http://eureferendum.com/.

Dr Richard North is a veteran supported of Britain’s exit from the EU and co-author, with Christopher Booker, of ‘The Great Deception: The Definitive History of the EU’ and before that co-author of two other books on EU-related matters.

He was group research director of the EDD group in the European Parliament and has written numerous pamphlets and articles on EU matters.

News

IFS report says Wales lags behind UK on economy and poverty

Published

3 hours ago

April 3, 2026

Jon Coles

THE WELSH GOVERNMENT’s key Child Poverty Strategy lacks clarity, has no reliable way of measuring success or failure, and, crucially, does not account for the Welsh Government’s lack of control over the levers needed to deliver on it.

Those are the findings of a new report by the UK’s leading economic policy research body, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), which looks at Wales’s economic performance and poor employment record.

The IFS report, published on Wednesday (April 1), shows that Wales’s economic performance is the worst of the UK nations, with the lowest employment rate, the lowest incomes, the lowest productivity, and the worst poverty levels.

POVERTY STRATEGY LACKS FOCUS

The Welsh Government launched its Child Poverty Strategy in 2018, with five broad aims to reduce child and youth poverty. However, the IFS criticises how those aims have been set out, finding that the definitions are too broad to be measured accurately and lack focus. In particular, the IFS says the strategy’s aims are so nebulous that they ignore the impact of policy areas over which the Welsh Government exercises direct control, for example, health and education, on how outcomes might be measured.

The IFS report says: “Issues with the data mean a material risk that the Welsh Government might either appear to have met a future poverty target or missed it, by a large margin, when in fact the reverse is true.”

WG NOT IN CONTROL OF OWN POVERTY STRATEGY

In any event, several of the most direct policy levers available to influence employment and earnings, including minimum wages, employment law and benefits policy, are reserved to Westminster. However, even if these policy levers were available, it would be very challenging to achieve large, rapid reductions in child poverty with them. In addition, Labour has ruled out using the tax system to generate additional income to help it meet its aims.

Wales’s highest-earning regions are along the North East Wales border with England and in the Cardiff and Newport areas. In addition, proportionately more Welsh employees are public sector workers, who are also, far and away, the best paid in Wales. The average public sector wage is around £5,000 higher than the average private sector wage. And those jobs, too, are disproportionately centred in Cardiff, Newport and North East Wales. The best-performing areas by employment rate, Monmouthshire and Newport, are within easy reach of the English border.

POVERTY CONCEALED BY LOWER PROPERTY VALUES

Compared with the rest of the UK, the gap between men’s and women’s pay is lower in Wales, as are the differences in income and in the highest and lowest property prices. However, property prices are far lower in Wales than in England, as are incomes overall; in addition, there are so few higher-rate tax earners in Wales that the Welsh Government increasing their income tax would have a negligible effect on its revenue. In addition, because Welsh housing prices are much lower than elsewhere in the UK, and because housing costs are a factor in how poverty is measured, housing costs improve one of the key poverty metrics.

News

Carol Vorderman urges Welsh voters to reject Reform UK ahead of Senedd election

Published

4 hours ago

April 3, 2026

Tom Sinclair

TV presenter and commentator to appear at Cardiff event aimed at mobilising anti-Reform voters before May 7

CAROL VODERMAN has urged voters in Wales to reject Reform UK at next month’s Senedd election, as she prepares to appear at a live political event in Cardiff focused on keeping the party out of power.

Speaking ahead of an emergency Guilty Feminist Welsh Election Special at the New Theatre, Cardiff, on Sunday, April 12, Vorderman said Wales faced a crucial choice at the ballot box.

She said: “Wales has a chance for a new beginning in May. But Reform, the chaotic London-based, privately educated, failed Tory party, needs to be sent packing.

“Already numerous of their 96 Welsh candidates have resigned or been sacked for revolting actions. Their last Welsh Reform leader Nathan Gill is serving time in jail for accepting Russian bribes while serving in the European Parliament. Their new Welsh leader was a Tory living in London until a few months ago.

“Farage is a thin-skinned and proven liar. Everyone must come out to vote to save our country. Cymru Am Byth.”

Vorderman is due to appear alongside Guilty Feminist host Deborah Frances-White, with Welsh comedians Kiri Pritchard-McLean and Priya Hall also on the bill. Organisers say the night will mix comedy, music and political discussion, with the aim of building strategy ahead of the election.

Frances-White said polling suggested the Senedd result could be close and argued that “it really matters who ends up making decisions about our lives”, adding that the event was intended as a “get-in-the-room” night to work out how to respond.

Reform UK’s current leader in Wales is Dan Thomas, who was unveiled by Nigel Farage in Newport in February. Thomas is a former Conservative leader of Barnet Council in London, although he grew up in Blackwood.

Vorderman’s reference to Nathan Gill points to a highly embarrassing chapter in the party’s recent history. Gill, a former Reform UK politician and ex-MEP, was jailed last year after admitting taking bribes from pro-Russian figures in exchange for speeches and statements in the European Parliament.

Asked for a response to Vorderman’s remarks, a Reform UK Wales source replied briefly: “Does she even live in Wales?”

It was a short answer, but perhaps not one likely to end the argument. With the campaign heating up, and with high-profile voices now piling in from outside formal party politics, the battle for attention ahead of May 7 is only getting louder.

Business

Calls for award-winning Pembrokeshire sauna to be permanent

Published

9 hours ago

April 3, 2026

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

CALLS to allow the permanent siting of an award-winning Pembrokeshire seaside village outdoor sauna, which has been featured in the national press, have been submitted to the national park.

Back in June 2024, a temporary two-year permission for a mobile wood-fired sauna at Saundersfoot harbour was granted by Pembrokeshire Coast National Park’s development management committee.

Since then, a further application by Kerry Evans of Hwyl Outdoor Sauna to make the siting permanent has been submitted to national park planners.

A supporting statement says, since its introduction the sauna has “become a popular and valued amenity for both residents and visitors, offering a space focussed on health, wellbeing and community connection”.

It went on to say: “The overall sentiment within the village has been strongly supportive, with many residents recognising the sauna as a valuable asset that enhances the amenities in Saundersfoot,” adding: “Hwyl Outdoor Sauna has received positive attention in regional and national press helping to promote Saundersfoot as a destination for coastal wellbeing and outdoor experiences.

“Media coverage has highlighted the sauna as an example of the increasing popularity of sea swimming and sauna culture around the UK coastline.

“Hwyl Outdoor Sauna has been featured in two books on the best saunas in the UK.

“The business has also been recognised through tourism and hospitality awards, further demonstrating the quality of the experience provided and the positive contribution it makes to the local visitor offer.”

Back in February, the business, set up by former superyacht worker and mum-of-two Kerry won Sauna of the Year 2026/27 at the Wales Prestige Awards.

At the time Kerry said: “I could not be more proud of what I have achieved with Hwyl. I am so grateful to my wonderful team, who have made this journey not only possible but genuinely so much fun.”

Kerry ploughed a legacy from her beloved late father into the venture of a Pembrokeshire seafront sauna.

The application for allowing the sauna to be permanent added: “Through the Welsh Government I have been able to secure the funds to install a cold-water shower on Saundersfoot Harbour, which will be open year-round. This will be achieved via Hywel Outdoor Sauna and a weather proofing fund, from the Welsh Government. This facility has also a GoFundMe to raise the remaining costs.”

It concludes: “Hwyl Outdoor Sauna has established itself as a valued wellbeing facility that benefits both residents and visitors. It enhances the amenities available in Saundersfoot, supports the local economy by encouraging additional visitor activity, and contributes positively to the community through charitable support and engagement.

“The permanent siting of the sauna would allow this successful local small business to continue operating and provide these benefits to the village in a stable and sustainable way.”

The application for a permanent facility will be considered by park planners at a later date.