Politics

Start of Term Report: Labour in Wales

Published

4 years ago

September 3, 2020

PROFESSOR Roger Awan-Scully writes:
I have used this point in the political calendar – the return after the summer recess – to assess the current electoral standing of the main parties in Wales.

Over the next couple of weeks, I intend to revive this custom, and address a single, simple question: with just a few months until the Senedd election, where do each of the main parties stand?

I begin this series of pieces with an assessment of the position of Wales’ long-dominant party, Labour.
A good place to start assessing the immediate prospects for a party is to review its immediate past. For Labour that recent past has been problematic. The December 2019 general election saw the party once again come first in Wales in both votes and seats – for the 27th general election in a row. But such an outcome has rarely felt less victorious.

Across the UK, Labour suffered their worst post-war general election defeat. Even in its ultimate bastion of Wales, Labour lost six parliamentary seats, thus achieving their lowest number of Welsh MPs since the debacle of 1983; the party also saw its vote share drop by a full eight percentage points on 2017 – a decline that was actually slightly worse than their Britain-wide average.

The closer you looked at the general election result for Welsh Labour, the worse it got.

Labour’s vote share fell in 39 of the forty Welsh seats (with exception being Montgomeryshire, where they were never remotely in the running).

In north Wales, only Mark Tami hanging on by a whisker in Alyn and Deeside prevented a complete Labour wipeout, and even seats like Wrexham that had been Labour for decades were lost.

Yet while north Wales was where the map changed colour most obviously, in other places Labour’s decline was even starker.

There were seven seats, all in south Wales, where the fall in Labour vote share was greater than in any of the six seats that were lost. Even in many places where the electoral map remained red, Labour was in significant retreat.

And the December disaster was not a one-off.

In the unplanned for European election earlier in 2019, Welsh Labour accrued their lowest vote share at any Wales-wide election since before World War I, and finished behind Plaid Cymru in such a contest for the first time ever.

The months that followed saw Welsh Labour’s opinion poll ratings, for both Westminster and the Senedd, reach the lowest levels ever recorded; they also saw the Labour candidate barely saving his deposit in the Brecon and Radnor by-election.

Since the general election, of course, an enormous amount has changed. One thing that will surely be of long-term importance is that the UK party is now led by Sir Keir Starmer, not Jeremy Corbyn.

While the circumstances of recent months have limited Starmer’s ability to reach out to the British public, the polling evidence already indicates him doing better with them than his predecessor ever managed. But those circumstances – the Covid-19 pandemic and its manifold implications – have become the defining political reality of the present.

In Wales, as across Britain as a whole, Labour’s poll ratings have largely been driven by public evaluations of the Conservative UK government’s handling of Covid. In the first few weeks of the crisis (as was seen in the April Welsh Political Barometer poll), the public largely ‘rallied to the flag’; these tendencies were reinforced for a while by personal sympathy extended to a severely unwell Prime Minister Johnson. As public evaluations of the UK government’s handling of Covid-19 have subsequently worsened, the electoral position of Labour has improved.

It has long been the case that Welsh devolved elections are influenced by the Britain-wide political context. But to an even greater extent than usual, Welsh Labour’s electoral prospects for May 2021 are likely to be shaped by factors wholly out of its control.

The most obvious of these factors is Covid – the development of the disease and treatments for it, the manifold social and economic implications of the crisis, and public evaluations of how the UK government addresses these problems. But another important issue will likely be Brexit, a project that is, of course, very closely identified with Prime Minister Johnson.

Having formally left the EU at the end of January 2020, the UK is due to depart the union’s economic space by the end of this calendar year; how smoothly that occurs will do much to shape public reactions to the Conservatives and, in consequence, the political fortunes of Labour.

One Britain-wide factor that is surely positive for Welsh Labour is that they are no longer shackled to the electoral corpse of Corbynism. Yet even that positive may be limited in value: in Wales, as across Britain, it is likely to take some time for damage done to the Labour brand to be repaired.

When you have been publicly punching yourself in the face for nearly five years, it takes a while for voters to forget.

Having said all that, Welsh Labour can still shape its own electoral fate.

How the Welsh Government has handled Covid within Wales will surely be subject to extensive scrutiny over the next few months. The outcome to the Senedd election will also affected by the effectiveness of campaigning and leadership within Wales. In these respects, things are looking rather better for Labour than they were. Mark Drakeford’s first year as Welsh Labour leader could scarcely have gone much worse: not only were there the election and polling results for the party discussed above, but public evaluations of him personally were similarly dreadful. Large proportions of Welsh voters didn’t know who he was, and those who did were generally unimpressed.

But the Covid crisis has substantially enhanced the First Minister’s public visibility, and the seriousness of the crisis has played to his strengths. Mark Drakeford will never be a natural at ‘retail politics’, but the most recent Welsh Political Barometer poll suggested, for the first time ever, that he could become an electoral asset for his party next May rather a significant liability.

The electoral battleground onto which Welsh Labour and their opponents will march is one defined by the 2016 result. That constituted an overwhelmingly successful rearguard action by Welsh Labour: against a difficult UK-wide context their vote share fell substantially on 2011, yet the party lost only one seat.
Many seats that Labour had won very comfortably in 2011 became significantly more marginal in 2016, whereas seats they had come close to gaining five years previously now receded from view. Thus, the results from 2016 show that there are nine Labour-held constituencies that could fall on a lower swing than would needed for Labour to gain their most marginal target seat of Aberconwy (where Labour would need a 3.35 percent swing to gain the seat, coming from third place).

While some of the apparently marginal seats from 2016 (such as Cardiff West and Blaenau Gwent) may present a misleading picture due to specific local circumstances, the overall picture suggested by the above statistic is surely correct: Welsh Labour in 2021 have much more potential to lose seats than to gain them.

Some geographical nuance is needed, however. In the North Wales electoral region, two Labour seats – Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham – are obviously marginal. However, on a difficult night for Labour where they lost both to the Conservatives, they might well gain a list seat in partial compensation, limiting their overall losses to one.

In Mid and West Wales, Labour’s potential losses are probably also capped at one seat: if Lee Waters were to be defeated in perennially-marginal Llanelli that would solidify even further the party’s two regional list seats.

It is in south Wales were the potential action lies.

Labour’s continued dominance of the Senedd is based on their grip over the constituency seats in the three southern electoral regions. The majority of these seats have been uninterruptedly Labour for the entire lifetime of the Senedd; indeed in South Wales West the total number of constituency contests Labour have ever lost is zero.

The limited number of regional list seats here is wholly insufficient to compensate the other parties proportionally for Labour’s constituency dominance. The converse of this is that any Labour losses here would be pure losses: the party would need to sustain multiple constituency defeats in any one region before it became likely to gain any list seats in compensation.

If the non-Labour forces in the Senedd are ever to crack Labour’s dominance of the chamber (at least under the current electoral system) then they have to make serious inroads into the south Wales constituencies: there is simply no alternative.

The next Welsh Political Barometer poll (coming soon!) will provide the latest evidence on how Labour and their opponents are currently doing.

But no party has yet finished within ten seats of Labour at a Senedd election. It would take a brave or foolhardy person to bet against their dominance of devolved politics ending in May 2021.

Politics

Senedd backs review over watchdog ‘stitch up’

Published

5 hours ago

April 19, 2024

Chris Haines, ICNN Senedd reporter

A CALL by the Conservatives for an inquiry into the political impartiality of Wales’ public services watchdog has been backed by Senedd Members.

Sam Rowlands led a debate after the head of investigations at the Public Services Ombudsman for Wales stepped down over anti-Conservative comments online.

Mr Rowlands said the ombudsman’s office, which deals with complaints about councillors and public services, must be impartial and unbiased.

But he warned: “Unfortunately, we now know that this simply has not been the case.

“After revelations that the head of investigations had been, over a long period of time, making torrents of politically motivated, hostile, aggressive comments on social media, it’s clear that the ombudsman has a real problem.”

Mr Rowlands said non-Conservative politicians were also in the firing line with independents in Bridgend and Monmouthshire raising concerns about unfair treatment.

The Conservative MS for North Wales criticised the initial decision to appoint James Goudie KC, a barrister and former Labour council leader, to lead an investigation.

He told the chamber: “It’s almost beyond belief, but then you do remember we are in Labour-run Wales, where this behaviour is just par for the course.

“I am pleased that eventually the individual in question has been removed from this role.”

The former Conwy council leader urged the ombudsman, Michelle Morris, to reopen every investigation involving the former head of investigations.

Mr Rowlands made the case for a full and thorough investigation by a Senedd committee to understand the “exact extent of how deep the rot is” and restore credibility.

Peredur Owen Griffiths, who chairs the finance committee, said it is essential that the ombudsman investigates independently of political interference.

The Plaid Cymru MS, who represents South Wales East, urged caution in the Senedd considering operational matters within the ombudsman’s office

He said: “It is not our role to monitor the day-to-day running of the office, nor should we be challenging the ombudsman’s decision, as that would undermine the integrity of the office and investigations process.

“However, the ombudsman is ultimately accountable to the Senedd, and it is right for us to take action when serious concerns arise.”

Mike Hedges, a Labour backbencher, told the chamber the ombudsman provides an excellent service to the people of Wales in dealing with complaints about public services.

However, he argued the ombudsman is not suited to dealing with complaints about politicians as he called for the creation of an ethical standards commissioner.

The Swansea East MS warned: “Many complaints are politically motivated, and the number increases as you approach local elections.

“And they’re often by people standing against sitting councillors who then make complaint after complaint about them to try and muddy the water.”

Gareth Davies, the Conservative MS for Vale of Clwyd, said trust in the public services ombudsman has collapsed as he argued the watchdog should be replaced.

Llyr Gruffydd, for Plaid Cymru, told MSs that recent revelations around the ombudsman’s office have been deeply regrettable and damaging.

Mr Gruffydd, who represents North Wales, said upholding the highest possible standards is more important than ever in an age of declining trust.

He welcomed the ombudsman’s decision to rethink the appointment of Mr Goudie after the full extent of his Labour links came to light.

Mr Gruffydd criticised calls to wind down the public services ombudsman, saying: “I don’t think the best course of action is to rashly throw the baby out with the bath water.”

He paid tribute to the ombudsman’s hard-working staff “who have been dragged into this unfortunate episode” which has tarnished the office’s reputation.

Lesley Griffiths, responding for the Welsh Government, shared concerns about recent events but stressed that ministers would not advise the ombudsman on how she should respond.

Ms Griffiths, the newly appointed culture and social justice secretary, said public servants must behave with complete political impartiality in their responsibilities.

“This includes not doing anything in their lives outside of work that might cause that impartiality to be called into question,” she said.

The Conservative motion was agreed without objection, doing away with the need for a vote following the debate on April 17.

The Welsh Government had tabled a “delete-all” amendment and it is thought that Labour MSs allowed the Tory motion to pass in error.

Climate

Clean energy projects ‘harming’ rural Wales, warns Conservative MS

Published

5 hours ago

April 19, 2024

Chris Haines, ICNN Senedd reporter

THE BUILDING of renewable energy projects should not be at the expense of Wales’ rural communities, a Conservative MS has warned.

James Evans, who represents Brecon and Radnorshire, said large-scale wind farms and pylons threaten Wales’ breathtaking landscapes and tourism industry.

Despite his concerns, Mr Evans said he recognised that green energy is crucial to a sustainable future.

He said: “We can’t ignore the potential harm that these projects can inflict on the very communities they’re supposed to help.

“Imagine this: you wake up to the consistent sound of a hum of a turbine blade. Some residents have described this sound as similar to a plane consistently being overhead.

“This isn’t science fiction – it is the reality for many living near wind farms.”

Warning that renewable projects can drastically change the countryside’s character, Mr Evans raised concerns about “shadow flicker” from the colossal structures.

Leading a short debate in the Senedd on April 17, the Tory highlighted a study that found a statistically significant negative impact on property values near onshore wind farms.

Mr Evans said the most concerning aspect is a feeling of voicelessness among residents “who are battling against big corporations like David and Goliath”.

He told the chamber:” Many communities fear that they have little say in the decision-making process surrounding windfarm development.

“Consultations, if they happen at all, can often feel like a mere formality. “

Mr Evans said Planning Policy Wales clearly states cables should be undergrounded but developers often say it is not financially viable.

He told MSs: “All these developments should be designed, in the first instance, to comply with Planning Policy Wales.

“They cannot use costs as an excuse to circumvent the planning policies here in Wales, and I think Welsh ministers need to be a lot stronger in following their own guidance.”

Mr Evans questioned the tangible benefits from developments for rural Wales, saying these are dwarfed by big returns for shareholders.

He argued responsible development is key, calling for noise emission limits, turbines to be placed further from homes and more robust community consultation.

Cefin Campbell, for Plaid Cymru, said his party has no objection to onshore renewables but Wales must question the size and scale of wind farm proposals.

He raised concerns about a “green rush” with developers proposing to build pylons criss-crossing Powys, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire.

Russell George, the Conservative MS for Montgomeryshire, similarly argued against the “over-proliferation” of wind farms.

His Tory colleague Samuel Kurtz raised the potential for floating offshore wind in the Cetlic sea, saying it is vital to minimise the disruption caused by associated onshore infrastructure.

Janet Finch-Saunders, a fellow Conservative, who represents Aberconwy, also urged ministers to explore undergrounding as an alternative to overhead lines.

Jeremy Miles told the chamber the Welsh Government wants to see a fair transition, which strengthens the economy, creates jobs and supports social change.

Wales’ new economy secretary emphasised that energy is crucial to the economy, with a target of 100% of electricity coming from renewable sources by 2035.

Mr Miles reassured MSs that the planning process is rigorous, robust, transparent and, critically, affords opportunities for community engagement.

He said: “Communities will be heard and decisions will be made balancing the climate emergency and the needs of communities for the long term.”

Stressing that rural Wales is at the forefront of ministers’ thinking, Mr Miles announced plans to convene an independent advisory group on the future of Wales’ electricity grid.

Politics

20mph policy ‘should be targeted at schools, hospitals and nurseries’

Published

5 hours ago

April 19, 2024

Chris Haines, ICNN Senedd reporter

WALES’ controversial 20mph policy should be targeted at schools, hospitals and nurseries, the new transport secretary has suggested.

Ken Skates, who was appointed to the cabinet last month, told the Senedd there is widespread support for 20mph in areas where children and older people are at risk.

He stressed that ministers want to undertake a “national listening programme” on 20mph, engaging with businesses, communities and citizens across the country.

Mr Skates said: “There is, I believe, a growing consensus in this debate that we can at least build on that 20mph is right around our schools, hospitals, nurseries.”

The transport secretary, who succeeded Lee Waters in Vaughan Gething’s new look Welsh Government, told the chamber ministers must make sure 20mph zones are truly targeted.

He vowed: “Changes will be done with and for the communities we all serve – with the voice of citizens right at the heart of all we do.”

Mr Skates also signalled a potential change in direction on new roads, emphasising: “We will continue to build new roads.

“Whether that’s to address localised congestion, pinch points and poor air quality, to improve safety, or, for that matter, to adapt our road network to the kind of extreme weather that we’re now seeing here in Wales with alarming regularity – we will build new roads.”

Responding to a Conservative debate on Wales’ “not fit for purpose” policies, Mr Skates pledged to change the tone of debate on transport.

Natasha Asghar, the Tory shadow transport secretary, said 20mph has proved hugely unpopular, with a record near-half a million people signing a petition to rescind the policy.

Ms Asghar questioned Welsh Government claims that the policy will save the NHS £92m, saying there is very limited evidence as she called for a detailed breakdown.

Delyth Jewell, Plaid Cymru’s shadow transport secretary, said major change is required as she warned that transport is all too often expensive and difficult to access.

The party’s deputy leader told MSs the price of bus tickets has increased at the same time services are being cut, leaving communities isolated.

Ms Jewell warned that Wales lost out on billions through HS2 as she urged the Welsh Government to challenge UK ministers’ decision through the courts.

She said: “We have paid towards impoverishing ourselves. Neither Sunak nor Starmer sees the need to right that wrong. Westminster will always prioritise Westminster, never Wales.”

Highlighting the climate emergency, John Griffiths stressed the importance of a modal shift from road use to public transport and active travel.

The Labour backbencher said five new railway stations in south east Wales will make a major contribution to easing congestion on the M4.

However, the Newport East MS emphasised that rail infrastructure is not devolved and Wales has only received a “paltry share of investment compared to the rest of the UK”.

Peter Fox, the Conservative MS for Monmouth, reiterated calls for a Chepstow bypass, saying the town is regularly gridlocked with an almost two-mile traffic queue.

He told the chamber: “We need to see the shelved road schemes back on the table to boost the economy and get our congested roads moving once again.”

Labour backbencher Carolyn Thomas argued Wales needs to prioritise investing in existing roads which are in a “dire” condition due to “ever-dwindling” budgets.

The North Wales MS said one council ran out of cash to patch potholes last month.

The Conservative motion also raised concerns about a north-south divide, with £50m allocated to the north Wales metro and more than £1bn to the south Wales metro.

But Mr Skates argued it is not comparing like with like because Wales has powers over lines in the south but rail infrastructure in the north remains the UK Government’s responsibility.

The Tory motion was defeated, 15-36, with Plaid Cymru’s amendment also falling, 10-41, before the motion as amended by ministers was agreed, 27-15 with nine abstentions.