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Politics

Pembrokeshire heads to the polls

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THE ELECTIONS to the Welsh Parliament/Senedd Cymru take place today, Thursday (May 6).

Over the last few weeks, we’ve published a guide to the manifestos of each of Wales’ principal parties.

Next today is the crunch and after that comes the business of forming a government.

But first, voting.

HOW TO VOTE

Wales has a combination of voting systems.On Thursday, May 6, you will have two ballot papers for the Senedd. One for your constituency, the other for your region.X in the box against your candidate for the constituency.X in the box for the party you want on the regional list.Forty constituency seats, with the same boundaries as the Westminster election constituencies, elect one member each through first past the post.
The winners of constituency seats don’t need most of the votes, only one more than the candidate in second place.
Twenty further Members of the Senedd are elected on a regional list system.
Wales is divided into five regions, each of which returns four Senedd members.The regions are: Mid & West Wales; North Wales; South Wales Central; South Wales East; South Wales West.
The parties prepare a list of candidates in their own order of preference.
The system supposedly balances the risk of a one-party state by balancing constituency success against votes cast for parties.

THE REGIONAL LIST

If a party is electorally successful in the constituency vote, it starts with a handicap in the regional count.

The formula is complex, but it basically divides the total number of regional votes by one plus the number of constituencies won. Successive rounds of counting then divide the regional vote by one plus the number of constituencies plus any regional seat won in the preceding round.

After four rounds of counting, you have four Senedd Members for the region.

Labour had two regional seats in Mid and West Wales after the 2016 election only because it performed dismally in Mid and West Wales’ constituencies. 

If the Labour vote collapses in Mid and West Wales, after this election it might return only one MS to Cardiff. In that case, the lucky winner would be Eluned Morgan.

Ironically, if Plaid Cymru wins Llanelli it will almost certainly lose its regional seat – unless other parties’ regional vote falls and Plaid’s significantly increases.

The Liberal Democrats held one seat in Mid and West Wales last time out, Brecon and Radnor. That success cost William Powell (number one on the candidate list for the LibDems in 2016) a seat. The Liberal Democrats were in poll position for a second seat after the regional votes were counted.

However, in the final round of counting, UKIP’s abject failure in Mid and West Wales’ constituencies combined with regional votes from Pembrokeshire gifted Cardiff Bay with Neil Hamilton’s contrarian presence.

That fact underlines the regional votes’ importance.

FIRST TIME VOTERS

The unknown in this election is the number of first-time voters since the franchise’s expansion to sixteen and seventeen-year-olds. Younger voters tend to be less tribal and more single-issue driven.

If young voters turn out in numbers, there could be a significant swing towards parties that address issues of importance to them in a way that appeals to younger voters. 

The likely beneficiaries would be parties closely connected to environmental issues – or at least those who claim to be.

At this point, young voter turnout could be disappointingly low. The last school year was meant to educate prospective young voters about the coming election. Thanks to the pandemic, that fell by the wayside.

In the future, Civics’ presence in the school curriculum is vital. Schools must give students an understanding of how government works, the importance of democracy and citizens’ duty to engage with it.

WHERE WILL UKIP VOTES GO?

The second question is where UKIP’s votes will end up. The Party’s membership, support, and electoral profile have withered along with its momentary political relevance. 

Although Pembrokeshire might again buck the regional trend, it’s unlikely UKIP will cross the threshold to get a seat in Mid and West Wales.

Abolish the Assembly (sic.) superficially appears the most attractive party for those who backed UKIP on the regional list last time out. However, the longer the campaign has gone on, the more Abolish has faded. An ITV interview with its leader, Richard Suchorzewski, was truly cringe-inducing.

After saying he respected Wales as a country, Mr Suchorzewski didn’t have an answer when asked to name another country without a parliament.

It was embarrassing to watch and, whether you feel Wales needs/deserves a separate Parliament or not, dire.

With Andrew RT Davies in charge, the Conservatives have burnished their ‘BluKip’ credentials. However, their campaign is endangered by the impression that a Welsh Conservative government would be operated from Westminster and not Wales, with Simon Hart as de facto Governor-General. 

It’s a tricky line for the Conservatives to tread. However, if the Conservatives pick up UKIP votes, as well as get their existing regional voter base to turn out -as they did in December 2019 – Tomos Dafydd could pick up a Mid and West regional seat for the Party.

VOTING IS WHAT COUNTS

There are plenty of opportunities to vote on the regional and constituency lists to register what’s called ‘a protest vote’.

Protesting in silence on election day by not voting and complaining for the next five years is an empty and futile gesture.

It’s objectively more important TO vote than HOW you vote.

Voting is what counts.

Nothing else matters in an election.

It’s a few minutes out of your lives and can change Wales.

News

Stephen Crabb MP calls for a fairer deal for farmers

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WITH concerns over the future of farming in Wales rising to the top of the political agenda, Stephen Crabb MP took up the opportunity to visit a dairy farm near Cosheston recently (Friday 8th March) to meet with a group of Pembrokeshire farmers to hear exactly why the new Welsh Government farming policies have caused so much concern to the industry. 

Held at Poyerston Farm, Stephen talked to the owner, NFU Cymru member, Roger Lewis, and a variety of NFU Cymru farmers and representatives as well as Samual Kurtz local MS and Shadow Minister for Rural Affairs, to hear their first-hand accounts of being part of one of the biggest farming demonstrations ever seen in Britain, which saw more than 3,000 farmers journeying to the Senedd. 

During the farm visit Stephen was provided with a tour of the rotary milking parlour and was able to find out more about the Welsh Government NVZ rules, the Sustainable Farming Scheme and the ongoing struggles with Bovine TB which are colliding to threaten the future of farming in Wales. 

Stephen said told The Herald: “It is clear from speaking to farmers today that a major overhaul is needed to the Welsh Government’s Sustainable Farming Scheme. The levels of stress and anxiety over all the new policies are justified and a lot of work needs to be done to restore the relationship of trust between Welsh Government and farmers.” 

He added, “Farmers need an agricultural policy that underpins local food production and support for securing resilient agricultural businesses and rural communities which is vitally important to Pembrokeshire. As the current policy stands, we are anticipating 5,500 jobs lost, a £200m hit to farm business incomes and 11% less livestock in Wales.” 

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire MS, Samuel Kurtz said: “Agriculture is the backbone of our local economy, yet the fear in the sector at the Welsh Labour Government’s plans are real. From TB and NVZs to the Sustainable Farming Scheme, Welsh agriculture has been under sustained attack by the Labour Government.”

“Working closely with Stephen, we’ve helped give a voice to our farmers either at the Senedd or in Westminster, to ensure that those fears are heard by the Labour Government in Cardiff.” 

“A prosperous farming sector is good for our local economy and good for our environment. Huge thanks to the local NFU Cymru team for the visit and the honesty in which they outlined the impact of the Welsh Labour Government’s policies on farmers.”

Roger Lewis told this newspaper: “It’s been good to welcome both Samuel  and Stephen out to farm today, there are a number of factors which are really adding to the pressure on farming businesses at the moment, including of course Welsh Government NVZ regulations, the TB situation in Wales and changes to support arrangements for farmers under the Sustainable Farming Scheme and we are grateful to Samuel for keeping up the pressure in Cardiff on all of these issues which are in the control of Welsh Government.  When it comes to Westminster, NFU Cymru is keen to emphasise the importance of UK Governments making the right funding available via UK Treasury to support farmers in Wales, and we look to Stephen to help argue the case there.”

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Politics

Jane Hurtt demands urgent overhaul of energy market

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WALES’ social justice minister has called for an urgent overhaul of the energy market.

Jane Hutt warned that energy costs will remain almost double pre-crisis levels despite a decrease in the price cap from April.

She said: “The energy market needs a complete overhaul, so that customers are treated fairly no matter where they live and investment is made into local communities.”

Carolyn Thomas, a Labour backbencher, said it is a disgrace that standing charges, which hit those in fuel poverty the most, have been allowed to increase.

She told the chamber: “Standing charges also disproportionately impact my residents in north Wales, who are subject to the highest standing charges in the UK, and will be paying over £95 more than those in London.”

Ms Hutt recognised the injustice faced by people in north Wales, saying she has regularly called on the UK Government to introduce reforms.

She said: “There are two issues – the postcode lottery around the amounts charged, and the fact that costs are applied even when people have used very little or no electricity.”

The minister told the chamber north Wales households are hard done by because they live close to sources of affordable, renewable energy which is exported.

Ms Hutt said she has met the new chair of Ofgem and the Welsh Government has responded to a consultation on standing charges.

She said: “We need a solution that is fair to low-income and low-usage households, and that doesn’t continue to disadvantage households in north Wales.”

Delyth Jewell, who represents South Wales East, described the failure of the energy market as an inevitable consequence of privatisation.

Plaid Cymru’s deputy leader said: “It’s failed consumers, who have to pay extortionate prices for the basic necessity of staying warm enough to live.”

Ms Jewell warned that Ofgem’s new price cap will provide scarce comfort for many families.

She said: “It will do little to help households who still have prepayment meters being installed forcibly in their homes, a third of whom have been forced into self-disconnecting this year.

“And let’s not use nice language to hide the truth here – self-disconnecting isn’t a choice, it is enforced privation, it is state-sanctioned destitution.”

During social justice questions on March 6, Ms Hutt reiterated that major reform is needed as she urged Ofgem and the UK Government to take responsibility.

Criticising a lack of progress, she called for the introduction of a social tariff to help low-income households with their energy bills.

Jack Sargeant, who led a petitions committee inquiry into prepayment meters, warned there is nothing strict or tough about Ofgem’s new code.

He told MSs: “The disability charity, Scope, have recently said there are serious gaps in the new code, meaning that vulnerable people could still be forced onto prepayment meters.”

The Labour MS for Alyn and Deeside criticised Ofgem for failing to provide a response to the petitions committee’s report.

Mr Hutt agreed that it is an unacceptable way to treat a parliamentary inquiry, saying: “We need confidence that Ofgem is treating the Senedd with equal respect to Westminster.”

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Politics

MSs reject calls for public to have their say on Senedd reforms

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MEMBERS of the Senedd have rejected calls for the public to be given the final say on contentious plans to expand the Senedd and change the electoral system.

Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems voted down a Conservative amendment for a referendum on the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) bill.

Under the bill, the size of the Senedd would increase from 60 to 96 members and a full form of proportional representation would be used in elections from 2026.

The 32 constituencies that will be used in the next general election will be combined to create 16 for the next Senedd poll, with each returning six members.

Darren Millar, the shadow constitution minister, argued the overwhelming majority of the public do not support expanding the Senedd nor changing its electoral system.

The Conservative disputed claims there is a clear public mandate for the reforms as he criticised “scant” references to Senedd reform in Labour and Plaid Cymru manifestos.

He accused Plaid Cymru of abandoning a commitment to pursue the single transferable vote electoral system, which would allow voters to rank candidates.

Mr Millar said: “It is abundantly clear that neither Labour nor Plaid Cymru voters at the last Senedd elections have given the green light for the reforms this bill seeks to introduce.”

He pointed out that the Conservative-led UK Government held a referendum on scrapping Westminster’s first-past-the-post system in favour of the alternative vote (AV) in 2011.

Mr Millar argued the planned closed-list voting system, which would see the electorate voting for parties rather than specific candidates, would prove even more unpopular than AV.

He told the chamber: “The reality is you’re all frightened of a referendum because you know full well that those proposals would be roundly rejected by the people of Wales.”

Mike Hedges, a Labour backbencher, pointed out there was no vote on the method of election for police and crime commissioners or mayors in England.

Heledd Fychan, for Plaid Cymru, told the chamber more than 63% of the vote in the 2021 election went to parties that had committed to Senedd reform.

She said: “It is beyond any reasonable doubt that there is a democratic mandate.”

Ms Fychan said there was no referendum on reducing the number of Welsh MPs from 40 to 32, and the UK Government resisted calls for a public vote on its Brexit deal.

Alun Davies, a Labour backbencher, who represents Blaenau Gwent, accused the Conservatives of crying crocodile tears about Welsh democracy.

He said: “If they respected Welsh democracy, we wouldn’t have seen the erosion of the powers of this place week after week, month after month.”

Mick Antoniw, the member in charge of the bill, said a compelling case for reform has been made in expert reports, which have been endorsed by three of the four political parties.

Wales’ constitution minister pointed out that hundreds of new members have been appointed to the House of Lords without a referendum.

Mr Antoniw told MSs the Wales Act 2017, which gave the Senedd control over its electoral system for the first time, does not include any referendum requirement.

Mr Millar also raised concerns about the “unacceptable” potential for a 10% variance in the size of Senedd constituencies from 2030, which is twice that allowed at Westminster.

He said from 2026 all Senedd constituencies will have about 147,000 electors, aside from whichever is paired with the protected Ynys Môn constituency.

Mr Millar explained that the paired Ynys Môn seat could have up to 25,000 fewer electors.

The Tory warned that from 2030 it will be possible for constituencies to vary in size by 30,000 electors or more, which he described as grossly unfair and inappropriate.

He said: “In the interests of fairness and equality of representation for all citizens of Wales, it is important that all MSs represent a similar number of constituents.”

Ms Fychan raised concerns about artificial quotas and unintended consequences, pointing to the example of the new Brecon, Radnor and Cwmtawe seat at Westminster.

The Plaid Cymru MS said: “If there must be a quota then we must include as much flexibility as possible rather than bind the boundary commission’s hands.”

Similarly, Mr Antoniw said introducing a smaller variance than 10% would mean more changes in Senedd constituency boundaries between 2026 and 2030.

He pointed out that there is no numerical limit in Scotland as he stressed the importance of flexibility to respond to matters such as geography and local ties.

MSs voted down the Tory amendment which would have halved variance to 5%.

Following the two-day stage-two debate on March 5 and 6, the bill now moves onto stage three – which will see further amendments debated and is expected to be held in late April.

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