Politics

Start of Term Report: Labour in Wales

Published

6 years ago

September 3, 2020

PROFESSOR Roger Awan-Scully writes:
I have used this point in the political calendar – the return after the summer recess – to assess the current electoral standing of the main parties in Wales.

Over the next couple of weeks, I intend to revive this custom, and address a single, simple question: with just a few months until the Senedd election, where do each of the main parties stand?

I begin this series of pieces with an assessment of the position of Wales’ long-dominant party, Labour.
A good place to start assessing the immediate prospects for a party is to review its immediate past. For Labour that recent past has been problematic. The December 2019 general election saw the party once again come first in Wales in both votes and seats – for the 27th general election in a row. But such an outcome has rarely felt less victorious.

Across the UK, Labour suffered their worst post-war general election defeat. Even in its ultimate bastion of Wales, Labour lost six parliamentary seats, thus achieving their lowest number of Welsh MPs since the debacle of 1983; the party also saw its vote share drop by a full eight percentage points on 2017 – a decline that was actually slightly worse than their Britain-wide average.

The closer you looked at the general election result for Welsh Labour, the worse it got.

Labour’s vote share fell in 39 of the forty Welsh seats (with exception being Montgomeryshire, where they were never remotely in the running).

In north Wales, only Mark Tami hanging on by a whisker in Alyn and Deeside prevented a complete Labour wipeout, and even seats like Wrexham that had been Labour for decades were lost.

Yet while north Wales was where the map changed colour most obviously, in other places Labour’s decline was even starker.

There were seven seats, all in south Wales, where the fall in Labour vote share was greater than in any of the six seats that were lost. Even in many places where the electoral map remained red, Labour was in significant retreat.

And the December disaster was not a one-off.

In the unplanned for European election earlier in 2019, Welsh Labour accrued their lowest vote share at any Wales-wide election since before World War I, and finished behind Plaid Cymru in such a contest for the first time ever.

The months that followed saw Welsh Labour’s opinion poll ratings, for both Westminster and the Senedd, reach the lowest levels ever recorded; they also saw the Labour candidate barely saving his deposit in the Brecon and Radnor by-election.

Since the general election, of course, an enormous amount has changed. One thing that will surely be of long-term importance is that the UK party is now led by Sir Keir Starmer, not Jeremy Corbyn.

While the circumstances of recent months have limited Starmer’s ability to reach out to the British public, the polling evidence already indicates him doing better with them than his predecessor ever managed. But those circumstances – the Covid-19 pandemic and its manifold implications – have become the defining political reality of the present.

In Wales, as across Britain as a whole, Labour’s poll ratings have largely been driven by public evaluations of the Conservative UK government’s handling of Covid. In the first few weeks of the crisis (as was seen in the April Welsh Political Barometer poll), the public largely ‘rallied to the flag’; these tendencies were reinforced for a while by personal sympathy extended to a severely unwell Prime Minister Johnson. As public evaluations of the UK government’s handling of Covid-19 have subsequently worsened, the electoral position of Labour has improved.

It has long been the case that Welsh devolved elections are influenced by the Britain-wide political context. But to an even greater extent than usual, Welsh Labour’s electoral prospects for May 2021 are likely to be shaped by factors wholly out of its control.

The most obvious of these factors is Covid – the development of the disease and treatments for it, the manifold social and economic implications of the crisis, and public evaluations of how the UK government addresses these problems. But another important issue will likely be Brexit, a project that is, of course, very closely identified with Prime Minister Johnson.

Having formally left the EU at the end of January 2020, the UK is due to depart the union’s economic space by the end of this calendar year; how smoothly that occurs will do much to shape public reactions to the Conservatives and, in consequence, the political fortunes of Labour.

One Britain-wide factor that is surely positive for Welsh Labour is that they are no longer shackled to the electoral corpse of Corbynism. Yet even that positive may be limited in value: in Wales, as across Britain, it is likely to take some time for damage done to the Labour brand to be repaired.

When you have been publicly punching yourself in the face for nearly five years, it takes a while for voters to forget.

Having said all that, Welsh Labour can still shape its own electoral fate.

How the Welsh Government has handled Covid within Wales will surely be subject to extensive scrutiny over the next few months. The outcome to the Senedd election will also affected by the effectiveness of campaigning and leadership within Wales. In these respects, things are looking rather better for Labour than they were. Mark Drakeford’s first year as Welsh Labour leader could scarcely have gone much worse: not only were there the election and polling results for the party discussed above, but public evaluations of him personally were similarly dreadful. Large proportions of Welsh voters didn’t know who he was, and those who did were generally unimpressed.

But the Covid crisis has substantially enhanced the First Minister’s public visibility, and the seriousness of the crisis has played to his strengths. Mark Drakeford will never be a natural at ‘retail politics’, but the most recent Welsh Political Barometer poll suggested, for the first time ever, that he could become an electoral asset for his party next May rather a significant liability.

The electoral battleground onto which Welsh Labour and their opponents will march is one defined by the 2016 result. That constituted an overwhelmingly successful rearguard action by Welsh Labour: against a difficult UK-wide context their vote share fell substantially on 2011, yet the party lost only one seat.
Many seats that Labour had won very comfortably in 2011 became significantly more marginal in 2016, whereas seats they had come close to gaining five years previously now receded from view. Thus, the results from 2016 show that there are nine Labour-held constituencies that could fall on a lower swing than would needed for Labour to gain their most marginal target seat of Aberconwy (where Labour would need a 3.35 percent swing to gain the seat, coming from third place).

While some of the apparently marginal seats from 2016 (such as Cardiff West and Blaenau Gwent) may present a misleading picture due to specific local circumstances, the overall picture suggested by the above statistic is surely correct: Welsh Labour in 2021 have much more potential to lose seats than to gain them.

Some geographical nuance is needed, however. In the North Wales electoral region, two Labour seats – Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham – are obviously marginal. However, on a difficult night for Labour where they lost both to the Conservatives, they might well gain a list seat in partial compensation, limiting their overall losses to one.

In Mid and West Wales, Labour’s potential losses are probably also capped at one seat: if Lee Waters were to be defeated in perennially-marginal Llanelli that would solidify even further the party’s two regional list seats.

It is in south Wales were the potential action lies.

Labour’s continued dominance of the Senedd is based on their grip over the constituency seats in the three southern electoral regions. The majority of these seats have been uninterruptedly Labour for the entire lifetime of the Senedd; indeed in South Wales West the total number of constituency contests Labour have ever lost is zero.

The limited number of regional list seats here is wholly insufficient to compensate the other parties proportionally for Labour’s constituency dominance. The converse of this is that any Labour losses here would be pure losses: the party would need to sustain multiple constituency defeats in any one region before it became likely to gain any list seats in compensation.

If the non-Labour forces in the Senedd are ever to crack Labour’s dominance of the chamber (at least under the current electoral system) then they have to make serious inroads into the south Wales constituencies: there is simply no alternative.

The next Welsh Political Barometer poll (coming soon!) will provide the latest evidence on how Labour and their opponents are currently doing.

But no party has yet finished within ten seats of Labour at a Senedd election. It would take a brave or foolhardy person to bet against their dominance of devolved politics ending in May 2021.

Community

Withybush hospital Welsh Government intervention call

Published

7 hours ago

April 3, 2026

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

A SENIOR member of the Welsh Government has been accused of “passing the buck” for declining a call to directly intervene in contentious changes to Withybush hospital.

Last year, Hywel Dda University Health Board consulted with its communities on options for change in critical care, dermatology, emergency general surgery, endoscopy, ophthalmology, orthopaedics, stroke, radiology and urology.

It said its Clinical Services Plan focuses on nine healthcare services that are “fragile and in need of change”.

The proposed changes included an option for Withybush patients needing specialist critical care being transferred to Glangwili.

At a recent two-day meeting, the board, amongst its many other decisions, backed changes into emergency general surgery which will see no emergency general surgery operations taking place at Withybush, but a strengthening of the same-day emergency care (SDEC).

Members stressed the changes would not happen overnight.

Following the decision, calls for intervention have also been made by local Senedd members Paul Davies and Sam Kurtz, who wrote to the Cabinet Secretary for Health & Social Care to urge him to intervene and stop the Health Board removing services from Withybush.

That response from the cabinet secretary has been criticised by Mr Kurtz.

In his letter of response, Cabinet Secretary for Health and social Care Jeremy Miles MS stressed planning and delivery of local health services, in this case “scheduled to begin in the next Senedd term, with a time horizon of up to four years to complete,” were, under statutory arrangements for NHS Wales, “the responsibility of health boards”.

Responding, Sam Kurtz said: “The response from the Welsh Health Minister is regrettably, though perhaps unsurprisingly, deeply disappointing. Rather than demonstrating leadership and using the powers that he has as Health Minister, he appears to be passing the buck to the health board despite the profound impact these decisions will have on services in Pembrokeshire.

“There is clear and justified concern among residents. After years of cuts to services at Withybush Hospital, this response will do little to reassure our communities.

“People deserve clarity, accountability, and a meaningful voice in decisions affecting vital services. Paul Davies and I will continue to stand firmly in defence of healthcare provision across West Wales.”

The Minister’s letter added: “Since the decision was taken, both the First Minister and I have set out the Welsh Government’s position in answers to questions from members of the Senedd and in debates. We have been very clear that decisions of this nature rest with the health board.”

It went on to say: “In your letter, you raise points about services within the scope of the [Clinical Services Plan] as well as the future of the emergency department at Withybush Hospital. I want to be very clear that emergency department services were not part of the CSP decision.”

The county council has also debated the downgrade plans for Withybush.

A petition to the Senedd against the changes has been created by Crymych resident Ajay Owen, entitled Urgent Pembrokeshire Healthcare & Resident Safety – Withybush Hospital & Health Board Intervention.

The petition, running to August 23, has attracted more than 11,000 signatures to date.

News

Lib Dems criticise Reform over coal and fracking comments

Published

16 hours ago

April 2, 2026

Tom Sinclair

THE WELSH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS have criticised comments by Reform UK figures suggesting coal mining could be revived in Wales, describing the idea as unrealistic and warning it could damage both the environment and future investment.

The row follows comments by Reform candidate Ben Hodge-McKenna, who said reopening coal extraction using newer and “safer” technology could help meet Wales’ future energy needs. Reform leader Nigel Farage has also previously faced criticism over remarks about sending young Welsh people back down the mines.

Responding to the comments, the Welsh Liberal Democrats said Wales should focus instead on developing newer industries, including floating offshore wind in the Celtic Sea, tidal energy and green manufacturing.

The party also linked the issue to Reform’s previous support for fracking, arguing that both positions point to what it sees as an over-reliance on older fossil fuel industries rather than long-term economic planning.

Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds said: “Reform’s plan to reopen coal mines is pure fantasy politics. It won’t cut bills, it won’t deliver lasting jobs, and it won’t stand up to even the most basic economic scrutiny.

“The fact they also want to open Wales up to fracking tells you everything you need to know. Fracking would destroy our countryside, can cause earthquakes and risks contaminating local water supplies, yet Reform seems willing to ignore those dangers.

“This is a party doubling down on the failed energy policies of the past, with no serious plan for the future.

“Wales cannot build its future by trying to relive its past. Communities that once powered the industrial revolution deserve better than being sold false promises about industries in irreversible decline.

“Instead of chasing yesterday’s solutions, we should be investing in the industries of the future and giving Welsh workers the secure, well-paid jobs they deserve.”

The Welsh Lib Dems said former coalfield communities deserve serious economic plans for regeneration rather than what they described as headline-grabbing promises.

Reform has argued that Wales should be more willing to use domestic energy resources, including fossil fuels, as part of a wider push for energy security and lower costs.

I’d add a line at the end saying Reform was approached for comment, if you have asked them.

News

Local Conservatives launch campaign with pledge to protect local health services

Published

17 hours ago

April 2, 2026

Tom Sinclair

THE WELSH CONSERVATIVE team has officially launched its campaign for the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency, pledging to protect vital local health services including Withybush Hospital and Bronglais Hospital.

Leading the campaign are current Senedd Members Paul Davies and Samuel Kurtz, who were joined by members of the Welsh Conservative team and fellow Ceredigion Penfro candidates Claire George, Brian Murphy, Jill Evans and Claire Jones.

At the launch, held outside Withybush Hospital, the team set out its vision for improving healthcare provision across west Wales. The campaign will focus on protecting and strengthening services at Withybush Hospital in Haverfordwest and Bronglais Hospital in Aberystwyth, both seen as essential lifelines for rural communities in Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion.

Paul Davies said: “Residents across Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion deserve access to high-quality healthcare close to home. We have consistently stood up for Withybush Hospital and will always fight to defend it. Any attempt to downgrade services is simply unacceptable.”

Samuel Kurtz added: “Labour has overseen the downgrading of local health services, while Plaid has enabled it by propping up Labour budgets in the Senedd. Reform has been silent on cuts to Withybush and Bronglais hospitals. Only Paul, myself and the Welsh Conservatives are standing up for our local health services, from Withybush and Bronglais to GP and dental access.”

The Welsh Conservatives said their campaign would focus on protecting and improving services at both hospitals, cutting waiting times, improving access to GPs and dentists, securing fairer healthcare funding for rural areas, and ensuring local voices are heard in decisions about health provision.

They said rural healthcare needs tailored solutions and long-term investment, rather than further centralisation of services away from local communities.

Paul Davies added: “This campaign is rooted in the priorities of local people who have trusted us to deliver. We have a strong track record of action, and we will continue to stand up for our hospitals, support local businesses and farmers, and fight for a healthcare system that works for everyone, no matter where they live.

“This election is about making sure west Wales has a strong, experienced voice focused on what really matters – our NHS, our economy and our future.

“After more than two decades of Labour running Wales, too many public services are still falling short, especially in rural areas like ours.”

Mr Kurtz said: “Paul and I have experience, and we have put that experience into practice by working hard for our communities. That experience will matter in a larger Senedd. We are ready to hit the ground running and fight for west Wales, no matter who ends up running the Government.”

The campaign will now continue across the constituency, with candidates meeting residents and listening to their priorities.

Aled Thomas, Chair of the Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion Conservative Federation, said: “With six Senedd Members representing the new constituency under the new voting system, every vote matters, and every vote for the Welsh Conservatives can help return Paul and Sam.

“Both Paul and Sam are well known locally, with years of experience standing up for west Wales. They understand the issues that matter, they are proud to serve, and they have consistently worked hard to get results.”

Photo caption: Welsh Conservative candidates Paul Davies, Samuel Kurtz, Claire George, Brian Murphy, Jill Evans and Claire Jones launched their Ceredigion Penfro Senedd campaign on Wednesday (Apr 2) with a pledge to protect local health services.