ON TUESDAY (Oct 28), BBC Cymru-Wales’ Week In Week Out programme covered the threat posed to the Welsh coastline by rising sea levels and the lack of budget available to continue to defend under-threat communities. A BBC spokesperson said “Each of the 48 areas along the coast in Wales have different timescales that estimate when properties are at risk of being lost to the sea. And while the plans are based on scientifi c estimates of future events the impact on home owners is likely to be immediate.” Next week, PCCC is to look at its own strategy on the future of those coastal communities under threat in Pembrokeshire. Bridgend council accepted the shoreline plan almost two years ago.

It told Week In-Week Out it did follow communication guidelines to let people know, and will work with the residents on fl ood defences and coastal change. But a number of Newton residents whose homes are at risk said they knew nothing of the plan or the threat to their homes until Week In Week Out contacted them. However, it appears that communication is a common problem for local authorities. Emyr Williams, a coastal engineer from Pembrokeshire County Council, stated that when a public meeting was called to discuss the council’s managed withdrawal from see wall maintenance along The Strand, no Saundersfoot residents turned up.

The programme made particularly grim viewing for residents and businesses on The Strand in Saundersfoot, as the council’s coastal engineer revealed that the Council anticipated the loss of The Strand to the waves. The Pembrokeshire Herald has taken the opportunity to look at the West Wales Shoreline Management Plan (SMP), to which the council is a key contributor, and has uncovered a worrying picture around the Pembrokeshire coast. The report states: “With increased sea level many of the transport issues will increase, most particularly at Newgale, but also at Little Haven, Broad Haven and Solva.

As sea level rises there would be substantially greater pressure for the coast to roll back with disruption to natural defences at Newgale and the potential for increased loss of beaches where man made defences are in place. Increased risk of fl ooding would also occur to many of the other smaller communities.” The original Shoreline Management Plan suggested that further consideration be given to defence of the coastal road at Settlands, between Little Haven and Broad Haven. The southern part of Pembrokeshire and the Haven Waterway is similarly threatened.

Natural Resources Wales note that Dale, Amroth and Tenby are at signifi cant risk of sea fl ooding and that steps are being taken now to reduce the risk to properties. It seems inevitable, however, that regardless of the short term measures taken to alleviate the effects of fl ooding, the long-term prognosis for Pembrokeshire’s coastal communities is uncertain. In Amroth, in particular, the threat is stark with the policy being to hold the line for as long as possible through maintaining the existing defences to ensure that the risk of erosion is managed, but not to improve the standard of fl ood protection.

Once the defences fail, the shoreline will be allowed to naturally evolve and retreat through no active intervention, with broadly the same policy adopted for the entire coastal area from Amroth all the way round to Saundersfoot, affecting the settlements at Wiseman’s Bridge and Coppett Hall. The plans are due to wind out over periods of time ranging from 0-20 years to – most commonly- 20-50 years. However, that does not mean that defences will be maintained for the whole of that period but that by the end of those periods realignment will have taken place, including but not limited to the redirection of transport links and what is described as ‘relocation’.

Coastal engineer Greg Guthrie said: “There are places where we are saying that continuing to defend is basically daft, that we are actually building up, stacking up problems for the future. We have an opportunity – highlighted by the Shoreline Management Plans – to highlight those areas and say now, while we still have time, we can plan how we get out of the dead-end that we are driving ourselves into.” The new Minister for Natural Resources, Carl Sargeant, claims the Welsh Government has spent £300m on fl ood defences since 2011, but it will be diffi cult to justify defending some areas in future. When asked if people affected would be compensated he said each case would have to be examined individually.