Politics

Welsh Government wins vote on £26bn draft budget

Published

1 year ago

February 6, 2025

THE WELSH Government won the first vote on its £26bn spending plans for next year in the absence of two Conservative Senedd Members.

The Senedd, which had been expected to reject the motion, voted 29-26 in favour of the 2025/26 draft budget, with one abstention, following a two-hour debate on February 4.

Darren Millar and Russell George, trustees of the Evan Roberts Institute, a Christian charity, missed the vote after jetting off for a prayer meeting in Washington DC.

Labour, which holds half of the Senedd’s 60 seats, refused to agree to a pairing arrangement which would have seen some of its members not vote to cover the absences.

The Conservatives similarly refused to “pair” when two Labour members were off sick for a no-confidence vote on former First Minister Vaughan Gething in June.

But Tuesday’s vote was largely inconsequential unlike the crunch vote looming on March 4.

With parliamentary arithmetic on a knife-edge, ministers still need to cut a deal with at least one opposition member to pass the final budget which will be published on February 25.

If not agreed, the Welsh Government’s budget would initially revert to 75% of the previous year’s and if a motion is not passed by the end of July, this would rise to 95%.

Welsh rates of income tax, set to raise £3.4bn in 2025/26, will also need to be agreed before the budget motion on March 4 or rates would fall by 10p in the £1 for all Welsh taxpayers.

Finance secretary Mark Drakeford said the draft budget provides an extra £1.5bn, with every Welsh Government department receiving an increase in capital and revenue funding.

He told the Senedd: “In sharp contrast to this time last year, I have been able to provide an uplift to every part of the public service here in Wales.”

Peredur Owen Griffiths, who chairs the Senedd’s finance committee, raised a groundswell of evidence about the impact of the UK Government’s employer national insurance hike.

Peredur Owen Griffiths at the Senedd on December 7, 2021 — South Wales East’s Plaid Cymru MS Peredur Owen Griffiths

He also called for a “funding floor” to close the gap between the councils that fared best and worst in the Welsh Government’s 2025/26 provisional local government settlement.

With the leader of the opposition in the US for a national prayer meeting expected to be addressed by President Donald Trump, Sam Rowlands led the Conservatives’ response.

The shadow finance secretary said a quarter of a century of Labour budgets in Wales have led to the longest NHS waiting lists and the worst educational outcomes in the UK.

Mr Rowlands warned that Welsh firms faced the highest business rates in Britain as he criticised spending on the default 20mph limit and more politicians in Cardiff Bay.

Conservative MS Sam Rowlands speaking in the Senedd — Conservative MS Sam Rowlands

In recent years, Welsh Government budgets have passed with Plaid Cymru’s support in return for 46 commitments as part of a since-collapsed cooperation deal.

Heledd Fychan, Plaid Cymru’s shadow finance secretary, said: “He [Mr Rowlands] can speak on behalf of his party but he certainly can’t vote on behalf of the two missing members.”

She added: “The fact that two members are missing from their benches today tells you all you need to know about what they actually think of Wales.”

Accused of “propping up” Labour for three years, Ms Fychan responded: “Grown-up politics requires cooperation – it also requires turning up to vote.”

She told the Senedd: “Every independent analysis, every sector in crisis demonstrates in stark terms that the draft budget is not going to lead to a brighter future for Wales.”

Calling for fair funding, Ms Fychan accused the Welsh Government of name-calling and trying to bully Plaid Cymru into supporting an “inadequate” budget.

Labour’s Mike Hedges and Rhianon Passmore, members of the finance committee, both distanced themselves from the committee’s “partisan” press release on the draft budget.

Ms Passmore stressed: “The Welsh Government’s financial settlement for 2025/26 is the largest real terms funding increase since devolution began.”

Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds, who is thought to be most likely to do a budget deal with the Welsh Government, did not contribute to the debate.

Ms Dodds, a former social worker, called for more funding for childcare and speech and language therapy during First Minister’s questions earlier in the plenary meeting.

Mark Drakeford accused Plaid Cymru of “fantasy politics”, pointing out that the party backed cuts in previous years but would not support a better settlement in 2025/26.

Prof Drakeford said: “They will deliberately and knowingly vote to deny those public services, and those people who rely on them, the extra money available to them in this budget.”

The former First Minister told the opposition: “They’re very keen indeed to tell us what’s wrong but they’ve almost nothing to tell us on how that is to be put right and, even when they do, they can’t tell us how they would pay for it.”

News

Parties make final push as Wales prepares to vote in historic Senedd election

Published

5 hours ago

May 6, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Campaign leaders criss-cross country in last-minute battle for crucial votes

WALES heads to the polls tomorrow (Thursday, May 7) after a frenetic final day of campaigning that saw party leaders, candidates and activists make one last push to win over undecided voters in what is being described as the most unpredictable Senedd election in modern Welsh history.

With polling stations due to open at 7:00am, parties spent Wednesday targeting key battleground constituencies across the country, including the new Ceredigion Penfro seat, amid growing expectations of a fragmented Senedd and a dramatic shake-up in Welsh politics.

The election is the first to be held under Wales’ new expanded Senedd system, with 96 Members of the Senedd being elected across 16 large constituencies using a proportional closed-list voting system.

Reform UK appeared to finish the campaign with significant momentum following a major rally on Tuesday attended by party leader Nigel Farage. The event drew large crowds and considerable online attention as Reform attempted to convert strong polling figures into seats in Cardiff Bay for the first time.

Farage used the rally to attack both Labour and Plaid Cymru, while positioning Reform as the party of “change” for disillusioned voters. Reform campaigners have focused heavily on immigration, cost of living pressures and opposition to what they describe as “wasteful government spending.”

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth spent the final day presenting his party as the main alternative to both Labour and Reform UK, insisting Plaid could “build a fairer Wales” while warning against what he described as “divisive politics.”

Labour figures, including First Minister Eluned Morgan and deputy leader Huw Irranca-Davies, urged voters not to “take risks” with public services, arguing only Welsh Labour could protect the NHS and local councils during a period of economic uncertainty.

Labour activists were heavily focused on turnout operations in traditional strongholds, amid polling suggesting the party could lose ground after decades as the dominant force in Welsh politics.

The Conservatives attempted to rally core voters with warnings about both Labour and Reform, while also focusing on farming, the rural economy and healthcare waiting lists.

In west Wales, Conservative candidates Paul Davies and Sam Kurtz spent the day meeting voters and carrying out final campaign visits across Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion, arguing their experience and local knowledge would be important under the new electoral system.

The Liberal Democrats and Green Party also maintained visible campaigns in several areas, hoping tactical voting and the proportional voting system could help them secure representation.

Across Wales, campaign teams handed out leaflets outside transport hubs, supermarkets and town centres, while social media campaigning intensified throughout the day.

Political analysts believe turnout could prove decisive, particularly because the new voting system means relatively small shifts in support could determine the allocation of the fifth and sixth seats in many constituencies.

The campaign has been dominated by debates over the NHS, farming, the economy, transport, tourism and the rising cost of living, alongside concerns about the future direction of Welsh devolution.

Polling stations open across Wales from 7:00am until 10:00pm on Thursday, with counting due to begin on Friday morning.

The Herald will provide live election coverage online throughout polling day and count day, including updates from count centres, candidate interviews and reaction as results emerge from across west Wales and the rest of the country.

News

Plaid Cymru projected to lead Senedd as Labour faces historic collapse

Published

5 hours ago

May 6, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Final poll suggests Welsh politics could be on the brink of a major realignment

PLAID CYMRU is on course to become the largest party in the Senedd, according to the final YouGov MRP projection for ITV Cymru Wales before polling day.

The model suggests Labour’s century-long dominance of Welsh elections could be coming to an end, with Plaid projected to win 43 seats in the newly expanded 96-member Senedd.

Reform UK is forecast to finish second on 34 seats, while Labour is projected to fall to just 12.

The poll, based on responses from more than 4,600 adults between April 25 and May 4, puts Plaid Cymru on 33% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 29%. Labour is on 12%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 8% and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

Labour facing major losses

The projection points to a dramatic collapse in Labour support across Wales.

YouGov’s central estimate would represent a notional loss of 32 seats for Labour compared with the 2021 result under the new electoral system.

It would also be Labour’s worst result at any major Welsh election since 1906.

The model suggests Labour may fail to top the poll in any of the 16 new Senedd constituencies, and could return no members at all in four of them.

In west Wales, Labour’s support is projected to have fallen into single figures in some areas.

First Minister Eluned Morgan, who leads Labour’s list in Ceredigion Penfro, could also be at risk if the projection proves accurate.

Reform surge

Reform UK is projected to make major gains, rising from just 1% of the vote in 2021 to 29% in the final pre-election model.

The party’s support appears to be spread widely across Wales, though it is weaker in Cardiff and strongest in parts of the south Wales valleys.

One of the most striking projections is in Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr, which includes the Merthyr Tydfil area where Keir Hardie was elected as Wales’s first Labour MP in 1900.

There, YouGov’s central estimate puts Reform UK narrowly ahead on 34%, Plaid Cymru on 33%, and Labour on 14%.

Smaller parties

The Conservatives are projected to win just four seats, which would be their weakest devolved election result.

That would leave them one short of the five members needed to form an official political group in the Senedd.

The Greens are forecast to enter the Senedd for the first time, winning two seats in Cardiff.

The Liberal Democrats are projected to win one seat in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, keeping Jane Dodds in the Senedd.

No majority expected

No party is projected to win the 49 seats needed for an outright majority.

YouGov’s modelling suggests Plaid Cymru would be best placed to lead the next Welsh Government, but would probably need support from another party.

Plaid and Labour together reach a majority in most of the model’s simulations, while a Plaid-Green arrangement does so far less often.

A Reform-Conservative majority appears unlikely in the projection.

Under the new D’Hondt voting system, small movements in vote share could still make a significant difference, particularly for the final seats in each constituency.

Polling stations open tomorrow, Thursday, May 7.

News

Welsh Labour insists Senedd election remains ‘wide open’

Published

10 hours ago

May 6, 2026

Tom Sinclair

LABOUR has insisted the Senedd election remains “wide open” despite polling suggesting Plaid Cymru could emerge as the largest party after Thursday’s vote.

Deputy First Minister and Welsh Labour deputy leader Huw Irranca-Davies said the latest figures were “disappointing” for Labour, but argued that the result could still be decided by narrow margins in several constituencies.

Speaking on ITV Wales’ Sharp End programme, Mr Irranca-Davies rejected suggestions that the campaign had become a straight contest between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

He said: “The polling that we’ve had tonight would be disappointing for Labour, you can’t take away from it.

“But what it also shows is there are really narrow margins, particularly for that fifth and sixth seat, and that is where a lot of parties can make a difference, so it’s not a two-horse race.”

The comments came after a new ITV Cymru Wales poll placed Plaid Cymru on 33% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 29%.

Under MRP modelling for the new 96-seat Senedd system, Plaid Cymru was projected to win 43 seats, with Reform UK on 34.

Labour was forecast to fall to 12 seats, with the Conservatives on four, the Greens on two, and the Liberal Democrats on one.

The figures would leave Plaid Cymru short of an overall majority, but potentially in the strongest position to form a government.

Analysts have warned, however, that small shifts in vote share could have a major effect on the final seat totals, particularly under the new six-member constituency system.

Plaid Cymru’s Heledd Fychan said the polling showed that the race was between Plaid and Reform in many parts of Wales.

She warned that Reform could still emerge as the largest party if anti-Reform voters did not back Plaid Cymru.

Reform UK’s James Evans questioned whether the poll reflected what the party was hearing from voters during the campaign.

He said Reform was seeing strong support on the doorstep from people opposed to Labour, Plaid Cymru and potential coalition arrangements after the election.

The Welsh Conservatives also argued that they could still play an important role in a divided Senedd.

Tom Giffard said: “If you vote Conservative and you are a Conservative, you’ll get Conservative representation.

“No party’s going to win a majority.”

The Green Party, polling at 8%, could win two seats under the projection.

Green representative Philip Davies said small increases in support could make the difference in closely contested areas, particularly for the final seats in each constituency.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats, polling at 6%, are projected to return leader Jane Dodds, although party representative Tim Sly said the campaign had been focused on target seats where the party believed it could outperform polling expectations.

Voters across Wales go to the polls on Thursday (May 7).