News
Welsh Labour dominance under threat in closest Senedd race in 25 years
New electoral system and rising support for Reform could reshape political landscape in 2026
WELSH Labour’s long-standing dominance in Cardiff Bay could come to an end at the 2026 Senedd Election, with the latest projections showing the party only narrowly ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Plaid Cymru in what is set to be the tightest race in a generation.
Cavendish, one of the UK’s leading public affairs and communications consultancies, today (Thursday, April 10) launched its new Senedd Seat Projector, revealing dramatic shifts in public support and the likelihood of a multi-party government.
Using polling data and modelling based on the new proportional voting system and enlarged Senedd, Cavendish forecasts that Labour may secure 28 seats—just one ahead of Reform on 27, with Plaid Cymru close behind on 24.
Under the reformed system, 96 members will be elected across 16 new constituencies, with each electing six MSs. The changes are expected to significantly alter how campaigns are run and how votes are converted into seats.
Coalition government likely
Cathy Owens, Director at Cavendish, said a coalition government appears almost certain.
“Our Senedd Seat Projector sets out a stark reality for Welsh Labour,” she said. “It shows a coalition between Labour and Plaid Cymru as the most likely outcome, potentially with joint First Ministers.
“Otherwise, a combination of the Conservatives, Reform, and Plaid Cymru would be needed to secure a majority—a scenario that seems politically unlikely.”
Cavendish says the data reflects a “seismic” shift in Welsh politics. For the past 25 years, Welsh Labour has polled consistently between 35% and 40%. But over the last year, support for Labour has dropped significantly, with Reform now regularly polling at similar levels.
The polling picture
Cavendish compiled projections from leading pollsters over the last 12 months. While Labour consistently leads, the margin is often razor-thin. A sample of projections includes:
Survation (April 2025):
- Labour: 28 seats (27%)
- Reform: 27 seats (24%)
- Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (24%)
- Conservatives: 15 seats (15%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (5%)
- Greens: 0
Beaufort (December 2024):
- Labour: 28 seats (27%)
- Reform: 28 seats (24%)
- Plaid Cymru: 20 seats (18%)
- Conservatives: 17 seats (17%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (6%)
- Greens: 1
YouGov (December 2024):
- Labour: 25 seats (23%)
- Reform: 25 seats (24%)
- Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (24%)
- Conservatives: 19 seats (19%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (5%)
- Greens: 1
Redfield & Wilton (June 2024):
- Labour: 38 seats (36%)
- Reform: 11 seats (11%)
- Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (22%)
- Conservatives: 20 seats (18%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (6%)
- Greens: 1
The variation highlights the volatility of Welsh politics under the new system, with small shifts in support having a significant impact on seat distribution.
Campaigns will need to adapt
Cathy Owens added: “The new system rewards efficient, geographically spread support. Parties will need to rethink their campaign strategies completely.
“There will be six types of marginal seats, and organisations that want to influence manifesto pledges will need to engage far more strategically than before.”
Cavendish says the Senedd Seat Projector offers a unique insight into the upcoming election and will be an essential tool for journalists, analysts, campaigners and the public.
The tool is now live on the Cavendish website, along with a full report on Senedd reform.
Cavendish will also host a LinkedIn Live event featuring Cathy Owens and fellow director Nerys Evans, in conversation with journalist Will Hayward, to discuss the findings and what they mean for the future of Welsh politics.
Charity
Toy Story fans fill charity toy box at Haverfordwest cinema
Donations pour in for SNAP Specialist Play as families embrace Toy Story 5 launch
A TOY STORY-themed charity appeal at a Haverfordwest cinema has got off to a flying start, with families donating toys to support children with additional needs across Pembrokeshire.
The Palace Cinema has teamed up with local charity SNAP Specialist Play to collect new and pre-loved toys during screenings of the newly released Toy Story 5.
The appeal centres around an “Andy’s Toys” donation box, inspired by the beloved Pixar films, which has already been filled by generous filmgoers.

Cinema manager Hannah Cramp said the response from the community had exceeded expectations.
Families attending opening screenings have arrived carrying bags of toys, with many children keen to share their own treasured items to help others.
The cinema has transformed its foyer into a colourful Toy Story-themed experience, complete with hand-painted decorations, character silhouettes, bunting and famous film slogans including “Reach for the Sky” and “To Infinity and Beyond”.
Many visitors have also embraced the spirit of the occasion by attending in costume as their favourite Toy Story characters.

The toys are being donated to SNAP Specialist Play, a charity based within the Child Health Department at Withybush Hospital.
SNAP supports pre-school children with additional and complex needs through specialist play sessions designed to encourage communication, physical development and sensory learning.
Its facilities include sensory rooms, therapeutic play spaces and bespoke equipment used by speech and language therapists, occupational therapists and physiotherapists.
Project manager Cindy Jenkins said the charity was delighted by the partnership and grateful for the generosity shown by local families.

She said every toy donated would be put to good use, either during specialist play sessions, at family events, or through seasonal initiatives such as Christmas gift boxes for children and their siblings.
The appeal will continue until mid-July, with organisers hopeful that even more donations will be received over the coming weeks.
Anyone attending Toy Story 5 at the Palace Cinema is invited to bring along a new or good-quality pre-loved toy to support the appeal.

Cover photo:
Fancy dress fun: Palace Cinema manager Hannah Cramp helping launch the Toy Story charity appeal.
Health
Medicine shortages now ‘most severe on record’, health leaders warn
PATIENTS are facing some of the worst medicine shortages ever seen in the UK, with pharmacists warning the situation now poses a serious risk to safety.
The National Pharmacy Association said shortages affecting commonly used medicines are becoming more frequent, lasting longer, and causing increasing disruption for patients, GP surgeries and pharmacies.
The warning comes as Serious Shortage Protocols for Creon, used by people with pancreatic cancer and cystic fibrosis to help digest food, have been in place since May 2024 and have now been extended until July 10, 2026.
HRT treatment Estradot has also been under a Serious Shortage Protocol since December 2024, with the current extension also running until July 10.
Patients travelling between pharmacies
A survey by the National Pharmacy Association found that 98 per cent of pharmacies had encountered patients who had visited several pharmacies in one day to find a prescription.
It also found that 96 per cent of pharmacies believed the current situation posed a serious risk to patient safety, while 89 per cent said they had been unable to dispense a medicine at least once a day because of supply problems.
Some pharmacy teams have also faced anger and abuse from patients unable to obtain medication.
Olivier Picard, Chair of the National Pharmacy Association, said: “Medicine shortages are becoming more frequent, lasting longer and causing increasing disruption for patients.
“These shortages are some of most severe the UK has experienced.
“It is deeply distressing to find patients who have travelled from pharmacy to pharmacy to find the medicines they need without success.”
Calls for urgent taskforce
The NPA is calling on the government to convene an emergency taskforce involving manufacturers, wholesalers, clinicians and pharmacists.
It also wants changes to rules which currently stop pharmacists from making simple substitutions, such as changing a tablet to a capsule or a cream to an ointment, even where a safe alternative is available.
Professor Victoria Tzortziou Brown, President of the Royal College of GPs, said medicine shortages were frustrating for patients, GPs and pharmacists, and added pressure to already stretched services.
She said the College supported pharmacists being able to make limited changes to prescriptions where a medicine is unavailable and a safe alternative exists.
She added: “The most important thing is that patients are able to access the medication they need safely and without delay.”
The Cystic Fibrosis Trust and Pancreatic Cancer UK have also raised concerns about the impact of shortages of pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy, including Creon, on people who rely on the medication to digest food, maintain weight and stay well enough for treatment.
Crime
Spittal man to stand trial accused of ABH
A SPITTAL man is to stand trial accused of assaulting a man and causing actual bodily harm.
Robert Hedley, 41, of Wesley Way, Spittal, Haverfordwest, is charged with assaulting Liam Morley-Trivett at St Clears on August 30, 2025.
The case was before Haverfordwest Magistrates’ Court on Thursday (Jun 18).
Hedley was granted unconditional bail and is due to stand trial at the same court on Monday, June 29.
The trial is listed for 10:00am and has been given a time estimate of twenty minutes.
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