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Welsh families face longer squeeze as experts say UK rates may stay high into 2026

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Financial adviser says Bank of England could even raise rates again if prices remain stubborn

WELSH households already struggling with high living costs could face a longer period of financial pressure, as one of the world’s largest financial advisory firms warns that inflation risks becoming “entrenched” in the UK economy.

The deVere Group, which has offices in Cardiff and across the UK, says that disappointing productivity and strong wage growth are combining to keep prices high — with the Bank of England now unlikely to cut interest rates before the middle of 2026.

Chief executive Nigel Green said: “The latest inflation data should set alarm bells ringing. Inflationary pressures are proving far more resistant than hoped.”

The UK’s annual inflation rate remained unchanged at 3.8% in September — almost double the Bank’s 2% target — while core inflation sits near 3.5%.

Mr Green said that wage increases in many sectors continue to outpace productivity, pushing up prices for goods and services.
“When wages rise faster than productivity, prices follow. This is how inflation becomes embedded – not as a short-term shock, but as a feature of the system,” he added.

He warned that investors are being overly optimistic about future rate cuts.
“The Bank of England cannot credibly loosen policy while inflation sits almost double its target,” he said. “Rates are likely to remain at current levels until well into 2026. There’s even a chance that the next move will be upward rather than down.”

In Wales, where mortgage holders and small businesses have already been hit hard by rising borrowing costs, any delay in rate cuts could deepen financial strain. Many Welsh homeowners are still coming off fixed-rate deals agreed before the cost-of-living surge, leading to sharp increases in repayments.

Mr Green said the UK is now caught in a “policy trap” of slow growth and stubborn inflation. GDP expanded by just 0.1% in August, while inflation shows little sign of easing.

He added that the forthcoming UK Autumn Budget will play a crucial role.
“If the Chancellor opts for tax cuts or measures that boost demand, the central bank will have no choice but to stay on hold for longer,” he said. “Fiscal and monetary policy are now locked in a delicate balancing act.”

With inflation threatening to become a long-term problem, he warned against complacency.
“If inflation is allowed to harden, it risks becoming a self-perpetuating cycle — one that could take years to unwind, as it did in the 1970s.”

The deVere Group believes monetary policy will remain “restrictive for far longer than most anticipate,” meaning that Welsh families and businesses should brace for higher borrowing costs throughout 2025 and into 2026.

 

Business

Call to convert former farmhouse/guesthouse to housing approved

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A CALL to convert a former Pembrokeshire farmhouse and guesthouse into housing units has been given the go-ahead by county planners.

In an application to Pembrokeshire County Council, Dan Hildebrand, through agent GMW Design, sought approval for the subdivision of Torbant Farmhouse, Croesgoch, near Haverfordwest, to form four residential units.

A supporting statement through Johnston Planning on behalf of the applicant and agent said: “The property has historically been run as a successful guesthouse for a number of years but has recently come under new ownership. The new owner wishes to maximise the potential of the existing residential floor space through the subdivision of this generous property into four units.”

It added: “Whilst the intention is to utilise the subdivided property for residential purposes due regard is given to the 2022 changes to the use class order which in effect created new residential classes for new development in an effort to control unrestricted holiday uses in sensitive locations.

“As such a ‘free use’ is sought within use classes C3 (use as a sole/main residence), C5 (use as otherwise as a sole/main residence) and C6 (use as a commercial short term let).

“These proposed uses, which are considered to be reasonable and to be fully compliant with current planning policy (especially when one has regard to the existing use) will provide the owner with flexibility in terms of proposed occupation. Ensuring full and meaningful use of the property in the future.”

It said the property was once part of Torbant Farm, now been broken up into a number of separate properties, including Torbant Caravan Park immediately to the north.

It added the works to the property “are minimal and will have a negligible impact externally,” adding: “Internally whilst the layout will alter marginally no structural works to the property are proposed.

“In character terms therefore, there will be no discernible physical impact either to the dwelling itself or to the wider locality.”

Six objections to the scheme were received, raising concerns including harm to visual and residential amenity, ecological impact, infrastructure constraints, and claimed inaccuracies in the submitted application, as well as the application overstating available parking space “which would encroach onto shared access areas, causing obstruction and conflict between users”.

An officer report recommending approval said the scheme was amended to move car parking provision within land under the applicant’s control.

It concluded the scheme represented “an efficient use of the existing building stock,” and it “would not result in any external alterations to the host building and would not give rise to unacceptable harm to the character or appearance of the building or its wider rural setting nor the residential amenities of neighbouring occupiers”.

The application was conditionally approved by county planners.

 

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Council-owned housing at former Milford Haven social club approved

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PLANS to convert a former Pembrokeshire town centre social club into council owned social housing have been given the go-ahead.

In an application to Pembrokeshire County Council, the authority itself, through agent KEW Planning, sought a change of use of the former Manchester Club social club, Fulke Street, Milford Haven to seven social rented residential units.

The Manchester Club public house/social club closed in March 2024 due to the cost of operations rising to be more than the monetary value that the club delivered, remaining vacant since this time, and was marketed for sale before an offer from the council was accepted.

The council scheme will provide five one-bed flats, one two-bed, and one studio flat; an amended scheme from discarded initial options which included one for 12 apartments and two studio flats. The scheme revised to restrict proposed alterations to the existing building to a minimum.

The proposal includes the demolition of the single storey garage to the front, and a single-storey extension at the rear, which will allow a communal amenity area.

A supporting statement said: “The vision for this project is to provide social housing to address housing stock shortages and to give a new life to a vacant building in a central location of the town. The property will be rented to mixed aged tenants, with PCC as the corporate landlord.”

An officer report recommending approval said the site had been marketed since 2024 at £170,000, with a £150,000 offer made but was unable to be proceeded with, the price later reduced to £150,000, three offers later received including £140,000 from the council, which was accepted in April 2025.

“For the two years that this property has been marketed the market response to the property has been limited with no viable interest in retaining the building for its existing community facility use,” the report said.

It concluded: “The loss of the former community facility has been robustly justified in accordance [with planning policy], and the scheme would deliver social and economic benefits through the provision of additional housing and the re-use of a vacant building.

“The proposal would enhance the visual appearance of the site, provide an acceptable standard of residential amenity for future occupiers without undue harm to neighbouring properties, and would not give rise to unacceptable impacts in respect of highway safety, drainage, biodiversity or the historic environment.”

The application was conditionally approved.

 

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Wales unemployment close to UK rate as ministers promise productivity push

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WALES’ unemployment rate is broadly in line with the UK average, according to the latest labour market figures.

The Welsh Government said figures from the Annual Population Survey showed unemployment among people aged 16 and over in Wales at 4.5%, compared with 4.4% across the UK.

Ministers said Wales’ employment rate was also “relatively close” to its all-time high, but acknowledged that official labour market data should be treated with caution because of continuing concerns over reliability.

The figures come as the newly elected Welsh Government seeks to put productivity at the centre of its economic agenda.

A Welsh Government spokesperson said: “As a newly elected Government we are committed to driving investment, innovation and higher productivity across Wales.

“We have announced a National Productivity Goal to close the gap with the rest of the UK and help unlock the full potential of the Welsh economy.

“By focusing on productivity, we will deliver more jobs, higher pay, stronger businesses and thriving communities.”

The Government says the new goal will help shape the work of its planned Welsh innovation and development agency, including how it supports businesses, develops skills and invests in the wider economy.

However, ministers also said Wales’ labour market appears to be following similar trends to the UK as a whole.

They pointed to ongoing work by the Office for National Statistics to improve the quality of Labour Force Survey data, saying the figures should be read alongside other labour market indicators to get a clearer picture.

The Cabinet Minister for Enterprise, Connectivity and Energy, Adam Price, is seeking a meeting with the ONS to discuss the reliability of labour market data for Wales.

 

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