News
OBR leak, tax freeze and political chaos as Reeves prepares for ‘tight’ Budget
The Herald looks at what’s in the Budget for Wales
LIFE in Wales could be shaped for years by today’s UK Budget after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) accidentally published its full economic forecasts online, confirming a prolonged income tax freeze, weak growth and rising debt before the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, even reached the despatch box.
The leak — the most serious fiscal breach in recent memory — appeared briefly on the OBR website early this morning. It was removed within minutes, but not before journalists downloaded the full 100-page outlook.
The fallout has stretched deep into Westminster, with senior ministers now confirming that the “riot act” has been read to those suspected of leaking details of the Budget to the media.
Income tax thresholds frozen until 2030–31
The OBR documents confirm that all income tax thresholds will remain frozen for another three years, extending the freeze to 2030–31.
This long-term fiscal drag means more people paying higher taxes without any formal rise in tax rates.
For Wales — where wages lag behind the UK average — the impact will be felt quickly:
- More Welsh workers pushed into basic and higher-rate bands
- Inflation-linked pay rises partially wiped out
- Household budgets squeezed at a time of rising rents, food prices and energy bills
The OBR estimates the policy will raise £8.3bn in 2029–30 alone.
Income tax rate rise scrapped after internal backlash
One of the most dramatic overnight developments was confirmation that a proposal to raise income tax rates for the first time in 50 years has been dropped.
The Financial Times reported that the measure was under consideration until late in the process but abandoned after strong internal resistance and fears of breaking Labour’s manifesto commitments.
This followed a highly unusual press conference from Rachel Reeves yesterday, in which she warned that sticking to Labour’s spending promises would be impossible without either tax rises or “deep cuts” to investment.
Westminster row: ‘Riot act’ read to MPs and Government insiders
The Budget has been engulfed by political turmoil.
Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, Darren Jones, confirmed this morning that ministers and parliamentarians have been reprimanded over leaks, telling LBC:
“There have been some leaks which are unacceptable… We’ve had to read the riot act to people in Government.”
Pressed on whether MPs were involved, he replied:
“I think so.”
The comments underline the scale of internal frustration as revelations continue to emerge ahead of the Chancellor’s speech.
Record-high tax burden confirmed
The leaked OBR forecasts verify that the overall UK tax burden will reach a post-war high by the end of the decade.
Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, accused the Government of “raising taxes by stealth”.
For Welsh businesses — particularly hospitality firms already battling rising wage bills, energy costs and weaker footfall — the measures will intensify pressure. Some small breweries and pubs have already warned they are “on the edge”.
Weak growth and rising debt: tight years ahead for Wales
According to the leak, UK GDP will average just 1.5% growth over the forecast period, while public debt rises from 95% to 96% of GDP by 2030.
Because Welsh Government funding is tied to UK spending through the Barnett formula, this means:
No major uplift for NHS Wales
Council budgets in Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire remain under strain
School funding pressures continue
Delays expected for transport and road upgrades
Rural support programmes remain uncertain
Public services already struggling with inflation and backlogs face further tightening.
Borrowing reduction relies on stealth taxes
The leak shows borrowing falling from 4.5% of GDP in 2025–26 to 1.9% by 2030–31, but the improvement is almost entirely due to the extended tax threshold freeze, not stronger economic growth.
What Reeves is expected to announce today
Although full details will not be confirmed until this afternoon, the Chancellor and Prime Minister have signalled several measures:
- A UK-wide rail fare freeze
- Minimum wage increases from April
- Support for childcare expansion
- Progress toward free school breakfasts
But Welsh hospitality operators warned this morning that wage hikes could push some businesses into closure, with more than 100 breweries shutting down in the past year.
What it all means for Wales
Based on the OBR leak and overnight political briefing, Wales should prepare for:
- Higher effective taxes for millions of workers
- No major improvement in Welsh Government spending power
- Slow growth and weak job creation
- Tough choices on public services
- Ongoing pressure on councils, the NHS, rural communities and small businesses
Rachel Reeves will deliver her Budget in the Commons later today — but the leaks, warnings and political chaos already paint a clear picture: a tight Budget, rising taxes by default, and little immediate relief for Wales.
News
Why NASA’s new race to the moon is partly powered by Wales
SPECIAL REPORT – How latest lunar plans are a truly an international effort
THE SPACE RACE is back — but forget Apollo’s flag-planting sprint. NASA’s Artemis programme is a marathon of supply chains, standards and long-term presence. As NASA’s massive Artemis II rocket slowly rolls out to the launch pad today (Sunday) this isn’t just about who plants a flag first. It’s about who builds the infrastructure, sets the rules, and sustains influence in the next era of lunar exploration and beyond.


On the surface, Artemis looks like an American show: a Florida launchpad, NASA’s Space Launch System rocket, an Orion spacecraft. But peel back the layers and it becomes obvious this is a genuine coalition effort — one where the United Kingdom, and increasingly Wales, has a meaningful supporting role in the rules, the hardware and the industrial backbone that will define deep-space missions for decades.


The UK is not a passenger
Britain isn’t supplying the giant rocket, running the launch, or leading the programme overall. Yet the UK is embedded in Artemis through three critical dimensions: diplomatic frameworks, essential hardware and specialist capability.
First, the UK signed the Artemis Accords in October 2020. That sounds like paperwork, but it matters. In a future of frequent missions, lunar bases and commercial activity, the real competition will be over behaviour, interoperability and trust: who shares data, who can work safely together, and who helps shape the norms that govern activity beyond Earth. The Accords are the scaffolding for all of that — and signing them puts Britain inside the tent as the rules of the next space era are written.

Second, the most tangible proof that Artemis is international is bolted directly to the spacecraft. Orion relies on a European Service Module delivered through the European Space Agency, with Airbus as prime contractor. This module isn’t a decorative “European contribution”. It provides the unglamorous essentials that make the mission possible: electricity, propulsion, thermal control, and key life-support resources such as air and water. Without it, the spacecraft cannot operate as intended.
Third, that European contribution draws on a distributed industrial chain — the modern reality of spaceflight. The UK’s space sector matters because it is strong in the behind-the-scenes work: high-reliability engineering, advanced electronics, precision materials, software and testing. These are not headline-grabbing roles, but they are the difference between a mission concept and a mission that flies.
So where does Wales fit?
To be clear and honest about scale: Wales isn’t designing the SLS rocket, selecting the crew, or dictating mission timelines. But Wales is demonstrating real relevance in the technologies the long-duration exploration economy will depend on — and that is what “powered by Wales” should mean.
Cardiff-based Space Forge is the standout example. At the end of 2025, the company successfully generated plasma aboard its ForgeStar-1 satellite — describing it as a world-first capability for commercial orbital semiconductor manufacturing. In plain English, it showed that the extreme conditions needed for processes like gas-phase crystal growth can be created and controlled autonomously in low Earth orbit.

Why does that matter to a Moon programme? Because better semiconductor materials and tougher high-performance components can mean more efficient power systems, more resilient communications, and hardware that survives harsh environments for longer. These are the incremental gains that ripple through satellites today and, in time, through the systems needed for sustained lunar operations tomorrow.
This is not isolated innovation, either. Wales is building the kind of ecosystem that turns a clever demonstration into a supply-chain advantage. The Wales Space Cluster Catalyst Fund — backed by the UK Space Agency in partnership with Space Wales and the Welsh Government — is designed to unlock opportunities for Welsh businesses and researchers, building skills and collaboration across the sector.
In the new space race, that ecosystem-building is not window dressing. It is how places secure a future share of contracts and talent. You do not have to own the rocket to benefit from the industry — but you do have to be ready when primes and agencies decide who they trust to deliver.
Why the international angle matters — especially for Wales

The new Moon race isn’t just prestige. It is strategic: presence, influence, and economic leverage in a domain where China is advancing its own lunar ambitions and partnerships. America’s answer is not isolation, but alliance — spreading cost and risk, and building legitimacy through international cooperation.
For the UK, Artemis offers leverage: a voice in standards, industrial participation through ESA-linked hardware, and the technology spillovers that come with serious programmes. For Wales, the opportunity is more specific: to become known for specialist capability — in advanced manufacturing, materials, electronics, and the research-to-industry pipeline that turns prototypes into products.
The real prize isn’t the first set of footprints. It is the long tail: sustained supply-chain roles, industrial growth and well-paid skilled jobs.
This isn’t about waving a flag at a distant launch. It is about doing what Wales has always done best: building clever, reliable things the world increasingly needs — and making sure Wales is on the supply lists when lunar exploration stops being a spectacle and becomes routine.
News
Lib Dems urge tougher action as homelessness figures remain stubbornly high
THE WELSH Liberal Democrats have called for stronger action to tackle homelessness in Wales, warning that the number of people relying on temporary accommodation has remained largely unchanged for more than two years.
The party cited the latest figures showing 10,818 people were living in temporary accommodation, with 1,287 occurrences of people being placed into temporary accommodation in October 2025.
Jane Dodds, leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, said the figures showed that existing policy was not delivering meaningful improvement.
She said: “These numbers have barely changed in over two years and homeless people are being let down by consecutive Welsh Governments. Legislation by itself is meaningless unless the Welsh Government also [backs it with the resources and action needed].”
Ms Dodds added: “We must help these hidden victims of the cost-of-living crisis who have been ignored by those in Cardiff Bay for far too long.”
The party said it would seek to address the situation through a major expansion of social housing, proposing the construction of 30,000 new social homes for rent.
Ms Dodds said: “The Welsh Liberal Democrats would build 30,000 new social homes for rent, ensuring that people on low incomes or with experience of homelessness can access a safe and secure home.”
Focus on rural pressures
The comments come amid growing concern about the pressures faced by councils across Wales, with rising demand for emergency accommodation and increasing costs to local authorities.
Sandra Jervis, the party’s lead candidate for Ceredigion Penfro, said rural areas faced particular challenges and claimed Ceredigion’s figures highlighted systemic issues.
She said: “The fact that Ceredigion has the highest number of homeless people in Wales outside of Cardiff shows the failure of our Plaid-led local authority.”
Ms Jervis added: “Rural homelessness presents unique challenges beyond the scarcity of homes, with a combination of poverty and inaccessibility to jobs and other services accumulating into a dreadful sense of isolation from the rest of society.”
Housing campaigners have previously warned that rural homelessness can be less visible than in cities, with people more likely to “sofa surf”, live in insecure private rentals, or face long distances to access support services — factors that can make the problem harder to identify and resolve quickly.
The Welsh Government has previously pointed to its homelessness prevention approach and housing investment programmes, while councils continue to warn that demand is outstripping supply — particularly for larger family homes and genuinely affordable rental properties.
Farming
Natural Resources Wales urges farmers to follow safe slurry spreading rules
NRW is reminding farmers across Wales to take key steps to prevent pollution as the organic manure spreading season re-opens.
During the autumn and winter “closed periods”, restrictions were in place to stop slurry and other high-nitrogen manures being spread, helping reduce the risk of agricultural pollution.
Grassland spreading can resume from Thursday (Jan 16), with spreading on tillage land re-opening on Friday (Jan 31). However, NRW said a number of controls under the Control of Agricultural Pollution Regulations (CoAPR) will remain in force until the end of February.
Those restrictions include limits on application rates — no more than 30m³ of slurry per hectare, or eight tonnes of poultry manure, in a single application — with at least three weeks required between applications.
Before spreading organic manure, producers must also carry out field inspections to assess weather and soil conditions, slope, ground cover and proximity to watercourses, to help reduce the risk of runoff.
Farm businesses are expected to plan and record all applications in their Nitrogen Management Plan to ensure nutrients match soil and crop need and remain within nitrogen limits.
Spreading is prohibited on waterlogged, flooded, snow-covered or frozen ground — including soil that has been frozen for more than 12 hours in the previous 24 hours.
NRW said its teams will continue to support farmers while monitoring compliance.
Simon Griffiths, team leader of NRW’s Agricultural Pollution Inspection Team, said: “As the closed periods come to an end, we want to remind farmers, tenants, landlords and contractors of the restrictions which remain in place until the end of February.
“This means anyone considering spreading organic manure needs to ensure the conditions are suitable before work starts.
“NRW is committed to protecting the environment and any instances of pollution will be investigated and appropriate enforcement action taken.”
NRW is urging farmers and members of the public to report pollution incidents immediately via its online “report it” form or by calling 0300 065 3000.
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