News

OBR leak, tax freeze and political chaos as Reeves prepares for ‘tight’ Budget

Published

5 months ago

November 26, 2025

The Herald looks at what’s in the Budget for Wales

LIFE in Wales could be shaped for years by today’s UK Budget after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) accidentally published its full economic forecasts online, confirming a prolonged income tax freeze, weak growth and rising debt before the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, even reached the despatch box.

The leak — the most serious fiscal breach in recent memory — appeared briefly on the OBR website early this morning. It was removed within minutes, but not before journalists downloaded the full 100-page outlook.

The fallout has stretched deep into Westminster, with senior ministers now confirming that the “riot act” has been read to those suspected of leaking details of the Budget to the media.

Income tax thresholds frozen until 2030–31

The OBR documents confirm that all income tax thresholds will remain frozen for another three years, extending the freeze to 2030–31.

This long-term fiscal drag means more people paying higher taxes without any formal rise in tax rates.

For Wales — where wages lag behind the UK average — the impact will be felt quickly:

More Welsh workers pushed into basic and higher-rate bands
Inflation-linked pay rises partially wiped out
Household budgets squeezed at a time of rising rents, food prices and energy bills

The OBR estimates the policy will raise £8.3bn in 2029–30 alone.

Income tax rate rise scrapped after internal backlash

One of the most dramatic overnight developments was confirmation that a proposal to raise income tax rates for the first time in 50 years has been dropped.

The Financial Times reported that the measure was under consideration until late in the process but abandoned after strong internal resistance and fears of breaking Labour’s manifesto commitments.

This followed a highly unusual press conference from Rachel Reeves yesterday, in which she warned that sticking to Labour’s spending promises would be impossible without either tax rises or “deep cuts” to investment.

Westminster row: ‘Riot act’ read to MPs and Government insiders

The Budget has been engulfed by political turmoil.

Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, Darren Jones, confirmed this morning that ministers and parliamentarians have been reprimanded over leaks, telling LBC:

“There have been some leaks which are unacceptable… We’ve had to read the riot act to people in Government.”

Pressed on whether MPs were involved, he replied:

“I think so.”

The comments underline the scale of internal frustration as revelations continue to emerge ahead of the Chancellor’s speech.

Record-high tax burden confirmed

The leaked OBR forecasts verify that the overall UK tax burden will reach a post-war high by the end of the decade.
Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, accused the Government of “raising taxes by stealth”.

For Welsh businesses — particularly hospitality firms already battling rising wage bills, energy costs and weaker footfall — the measures will intensify pressure. Some small breweries and pubs have already warned they are “on the edge”.

Weak growth and rising debt: tight years ahead for Wales

According to the leak, UK GDP will average just 1.5% growth over the forecast period, while public debt rises from 95% to 96% of GDP by 2030.

Because Welsh Government funding is tied to UK spending through the Barnett formula, this means:

No major uplift for NHS Wales

Council budgets in Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire remain under strain

School funding pressures continue

Delays expected for transport and road upgrades

Rural support programmes remain uncertain

Public services already struggling with inflation and backlogs face further tightening.

Borrowing reduction relies on stealth taxes

The leak shows borrowing falling from 4.5% of GDP in 2025–26 to 1.9% by 2030–31, but the improvement is almost entirely due to the extended tax threshold freeze, not stronger economic growth.

What Reeves is expected to announce today

Although full details will not be confirmed until this afternoon, the Chancellor and Prime Minister have signalled several measures:

A UK-wide rail fare freeze
Minimum wage increases from April
Support for childcare expansion
Progress toward free school breakfasts

But Welsh hospitality operators warned this morning that wage hikes could push some businesses into closure, with more than 100 breweries shutting down in the past year.

What it all means for Wales

Based on the OBR leak and overnight political briefing, Wales should prepare for:

Higher effective taxes for millions of workers
No major improvement in Welsh Government spending power
Slow growth and weak job creation
Tough choices on public services
Ongoing pressure on councils, the NHS, rural communities and small businesses

Rachel Reeves will deliver her Budget in the Commons later today — but the leaks, warnings and political chaos already paint a clear picture: a tight Budget, rising taxes by default, and little immediate relief for Wales.

Community

Free naloxone training session announced for Pembroke Dock

Published

14 hours ago

May 1, 2026

Tom Sinclair

A FREE life-saving training session is set to take place in Pembroke Dock next month, giving people the skills to respond to suspected drug overdoses.

RM Training and Security Solutions has confirmed it will host a naloxone (Naxoline) training course at The Cricketers in Pembroke Dock on Tuesday (June 9) from 2:00pm to 4:00pm.

The session is being delivered in partnership with the Dyfed Drug and Alcohol Service (DDAS) and is open to anyone, including security staff, venue teams, event workers and members of the public.

Organisers say the training is designed to be quick, practical and accessible, equipping attendees with the knowledge and confidence to act in an emergency.

Those taking part will learn how to recognise the signs of an overdose, what to do in a critical situation, how to safely administer naloxone, and gain an understanding of basic harm reduction.

Naloxone is a medication used to reverse the effects of opioid overdoses and can be administered via a nasal spray.

RM Training and Security Solutions said the session forms part of a wider effort to improve safety across communities, particularly in nightlife and public-facing environments.

Places are limited, and early booking is advised. Those interested can book via the company’s website or contact the organisers directly for more information.

Photo caption:

Life-saving skills: Free naloxone training will be held at The Cricketers in Pembroke Dock on Tuesday (June 9).

Community

Security firm meets councillors over town safety concerns

Published

14 hours ago

May 1, 2026

Tom Sinclair

A MEETING has been held at Haverfordwest Town Council offices to discuss community safety and security concerns in the town.

Councillor Randell Izaiah Thomas-Turner welcomed RM Training and Security Solutions for what he described as a “productive and forward-thinking” discussion.

He was joined by Deputy Mayor-elect Cllr Adam Benson Davis and the Sheriff of Haverfordwest, Cllr Dani Thomas-Turner, for the meeting with Ryan Mayne and Matthew Davis of RM Training and Security Solutions.

The discussion focused on concerns facing the community, including public safety, anti-social behaviour and the need for practical partnership working to help support residents, businesses and visitors.

Cllr Thomas-Turner said the meeting was open and honest, with all parties keen to look at constructive ways of improving safety and confidence in the town.

Further discussions are expected as councillors continue to explore possible community-led solutions.

Photo caption:

Town safety talks: Councillors met with representatives of RM Training and Security Solutions at Haverfordwest Town Council offices.

Community

Port invests almost £500,000 in Pembrokeshire communities

Published

16 hours ago

May 1, 2026

Tom Sinclair

YOUNG people, water safety projects and environmental schemes across Pembrokeshire benefited from almost half a million pounds of support from the Port of Milford Haven during 2025.

The Port said its investment reflected another year of commitment to strengthening local communities, building confidence among young people, improving access to the Milford Haven Waterway and supporting environmental resilience across the county.

Its community support focused on three main themes: a safe, inclusive and enjoyable Waterway; a skilled and confident community, with a particular focus on young people; and a sustainable and resilient environment.

Water safety projects delivered with Windswept, Paddle West and Blue Horizons CIC helped more people access the Waterway safely, including skills sessions and boat trips for people of all abilities and backgrounds.

The Port also supported Tenby Surf Life Saving Club and Porthmawr Surf Life Saving Club, helping provide training and safety equipment for volunteers carrying out lifesaving work.

Youth support

long-standing partnerships also remained central to the Port’s community investment.

Its continued work with Milford Youth Matters supported initiatives including Under the Bridge and the Winter Warmers scheme, providing safe and warm spaces for young people during the colder months.

Support for Megan’s Starr Foundation funded more than 300 hours of counselling for young people, helping improve mental health and wellbeing.

The Port also worked with Pembrokeshire County Council and Milford Haven Town Council to help keep a vital library resource open.

Support continued for the Torch Theatre, which delivered opportunities for young people outside traditional academic or sporting settings and won an award in 2025.

In partnership with the SPARC Alliance, the Port also helped encourage young women to explore careers in STEM, with 172 girls enrolled in the programme.

Environmental work

The Port said it remained proud to support the Pembrokeshire Marine SAC Officer post, recognising the importance of protecting and sharing the county’s special marine environment.

It also highlighted its role with the Milford Haven Waterway Environment Surveillance Group, which has monitored the Waterway’s habitats and wildlife for more than thirty years.

The Port has also supported Cymbrogi Futures in delivering the Tomorrow’s Changemakers Hackathon programme for schools across Pembrokeshire.

Anna Malloy, Communications and Marketing Director at the Port of Milford Haven, said: “Our community investments are some of the most rewarding ways we support people across Pembrokeshire.

“Every year we see incredible dedication from local groups working to make our communities safer, more inclusive, and more inspiring, especially for young people.

“We are particularly proud that in 2026 the fund will be focusing further on supporting projects that help young people gain skills and grow in confidence.

“Our investment in people today helps create a stronger, more inclusive and ambitious generation tomorrow.”

The Port of Milford Haven is the UK’s top energy port and Wales’ busiest port, handling around 20% of Britain’s seaborne trade in oil and gas. It also owns and operates Pembroke Port and Milford Waterfront.

Photo caption: Water safety projects delivered with Windswept, Paddle West and Blue Horizons CIC helped more people access the Waterway safely.