News

OBR leak, tax freeze and political chaos as Reeves prepares for ‘tight’ Budget

Published

7 months ago

November 26, 2025

The Herald looks at what’s in the Budget for Wales

LIFE in Wales could be shaped for years by today’s UK Budget after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) accidentally published its full economic forecasts online, confirming a prolonged income tax freeze, weak growth and rising debt before the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, even reached the despatch box.

The leak — the most serious fiscal breach in recent memory — appeared briefly on the OBR website early this morning. It was removed within minutes, but not before journalists downloaded the full 100-page outlook.

The fallout has stretched deep into Westminster, with senior ministers now confirming that the “riot act” has been read to those suspected of leaking details of the Budget to the media.

Income tax thresholds frozen until 2030–31

The OBR documents confirm that all income tax thresholds will remain frozen for another three years, extending the freeze to 2030–31.

This long-term fiscal drag means more people paying higher taxes without any formal rise in tax rates.

For Wales — where wages lag behind the UK average — the impact will be felt quickly:

More Welsh workers pushed into basic and higher-rate bands
Inflation-linked pay rises partially wiped out
Household budgets squeezed at a time of rising rents, food prices and energy bills

The OBR estimates the policy will raise £8.3bn in 2029–30 alone.

Income tax rate rise scrapped after internal backlash

One of the most dramatic overnight developments was confirmation that a proposal to raise income tax rates for the first time in 50 years has been dropped.

The Financial Times reported that the measure was under consideration until late in the process but abandoned after strong internal resistance and fears of breaking Labour’s manifesto commitments.

This followed a highly unusual press conference from Rachel Reeves yesterday, in which she warned that sticking to Labour’s spending promises would be impossible without either tax rises or “deep cuts” to investment.

Westminster row: ‘Riot act’ read to MPs and Government insiders

The Budget has been engulfed by political turmoil.

Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, Darren Jones, confirmed this morning that ministers and parliamentarians have been reprimanded over leaks, telling LBC:

“There have been some leaks which are unacceptable… We’ve had to read the riot act to people in Government.”

Pressed on whether MPs were involved, he replied:

“I think so.”

The comments underline the scale of internal frustration as revelations continue to emerge ahead of the Chancellor’s speech.

Record-high tax burden confirmed

The leaked OBR forecasts verify that the overall UK tax burden will reach a post-war high by the end of the decade.
Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, accused the Government of “raising taxes by stealth”.

For Welsh businesses — particularly hospitality firms already battling rising wage bills, energy costs and weaker footfall — the measures will intensify pressure. Some small breweries and pubs have already warned they are “on the edge”.

Weak growth and rising debt: tight years ahead for Wales

According to the leak, UK GDP will average just 1.5% growth over the forecast period, while public debt rises from 95% to 96% of GDP by 2030.

Because Welsh Government funding is tied to UK spending through the Barnett formula, this means:

No major uplift for NHS Wales

Council budgets in Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire remain under strain

School funding pressures continue

Delays expected for transport and road upgrades

Rural support programmes remain uncertain

Public services already struggling with inflation and backlogs face further tightening.

Borrowing reduction relies on stealth taxes

The leak shows borrowing falling from 4.5% of GDP in 2025–26 to 1.9% by 2030–31, but the improvement is almost entirely due to the extended tax threshold freeze, not stronger economic growth.

What Reeves is expected to announce today

Although full details will not be confirmed until this afternoon, the Chancellor and Prime Minister have signalled several measures:

A UK-wide rail fare freeze
Minimum wage increases from April
Support for childcare expansion
Progress toward free school breakfasts

But Welsh hospitality operators warned this morning that wage hikes could push some businesses into closure, with more than 100 breweries shutting down in the past year.

What it all means for Wales

Based on the OBR leak and overnight political briefing, Wales should prepare for:

Higher effective taxes for millions of workers
No major improvement in Welsh Government spending power
Slow growth and weak job creation
Tough choices on public services
Ongoing pressure on councils, the NHS, rural communities and small businesses

Rachel Reeves will deliver her Budget in the Commons later today — but the leaks, warnings and political chaos already paint a clear picture: a tight Budget, rising taxes by default, and little immediate relief for Wales.

News

150 years of Mothers’ Union marked at St Davids Cathedral

Published

1 hour ago

June 21, 2026

Tom Sinclair

A SPECIAL service has been held at St Davids Cathedral to celebrate 150 years of the Mothers’ Union.

Members and officials gathered for the anniversary celebration on Sunday (Jun 21), where Bishop Dorrien welcomed those attending and spent time speaking with the Provincial Chaplain.

The occasion had particular significance for Bishop Dorrien, who is the third generation of his family to be a member of the Mothers’ Union.

The organisation, founded in 1876, continues to support families, communities and church life across Wales and around the world.

Those attending said the celebration was a fitting tribute to the work of generations of members, with hopes expressed for the next 150 years.

Caption:

Celebration: Members and officials gathered at St Davids Cathedral to mark 150 years of the Mothers’ Union (Pic: Diocese of St Davids).

Entertainment

Harbour Fest to bring music, food and maritime magic to Milford Waterfront

Published

2 hours ago

June 21, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Free family festival will celebrate Milford Haven’s seafaring history and coastal community

MILFORD WATERFRONT will burst into life on Saturday, June 27, as the first Harbour Fest sails into town for a day of music, food, family fun and maritime celebration.

The free event will run from 10:00am to 6:00pm at Mackerel Quay and across the waterfront, bringing together local traders, live entertainment, coastal organisations and independent businesses for a packed day beside the water.

Organisers say the festival will celebrate everything that makes Milford Haven special, from its seafaring history and working harbour to its growing reputation as a destination for food, shopping, culture and family days out.

Visitors will be able to browse stalls from local makers and producers, enjoy street food and live performances, and explore a Marine Zone featuring organisations involved in sea safety, marine conservation and coastal life.

The Marine Zone will include Seagrass Network Cymru / Project Seagrass, Pembrokeshire Coastal Forum, Mid and West Wales Fire and Rescue Service, Dyfed-Powys Police, NCI Wooltack Point, Rudders Marine Training, RNLI Milford Haven and RNLI Angle Lifeboat.

RNLI Angle Lifeboat is expected to be based on the Mackerel Stage, while the Sea Cadets will be giving rope-tying displays at Milford Haven Museum, where craft activities will also be taking place.

Live entertainment will run throughout the day, with performances from Tom & Abz, Will Scott, Ryan Bristow, Milford Haven Town Band, Kyle Kirkhouse and ShantyJacs Sea Shanties.

Businesses across the waterfront are also joining in. All Pets Vet Care will hold a family-friendly open day with a bouncy castle, treasure hunts, quizzes, craft activities and behind-the-scenes tours. Aurora Artisan Crafts will host vocal performances, Biffy’s Bar & Restaurant will feature solo acoustic music from Laurence Lewis, and Martha’s Vineyard will offer seafood street food with live music from Ryan Bristow and Steve Bartram.

At Tŷ Milford Waterfront’s outdoor plaza there will be face painting, children’s activities, pop-up artists and an afternoon DJ set, while Phoenix Bowl and Pirate Pete’s Adventure Play will have inflatables and glitter tattoos outside.

The Waterfront Gallery will host introduction to felt-making workshops with textile artist Carole Fletcher, giving participants the chance to create a woollen felt flower pin brooch or phone/glasses case. The workshops start at 10:30am, 1:00pm and 3:30pm and cost £5 per person.

A wide range of traders will also be attending, including 5th Flock Spirits Co, Cinnamon Grove Distillery, Cwm Deri Wines & Liqueurs, Ferncraft, Get Loaded, J.J. Pottery, Major Nuts, Orange Garden Design, Pembrokeshire Chilli Farm, Pembrokeshire Gold, Pembrokeshire Lottery, Plumstone Welshcakes and SlateArtSJ.

With music drifting across the marina, food stalls lining the waterfront and lifeboats, sea safety teams and coastal groups adding a strong maritime flavour, Harbour Fest is expected to bring a lively summer atmosphere to one of Pembrokeshire’s best-known waterside destinations.

Organisers say the event is suitable for families, friends and visitors of all ages, with plenty to see and do throughout the day.

Photo caption: Harbour Fest will take place at Milford Waterfront on Saturday, June 27 (Pic: Milford Waterfront).

Community

Artist explores memory, community and changing rural life in new Cardigan exhibition

Published

2 hours ago

June 21, 2026

Tom Sinclair

A NEW exhibition exploring memory, belonging and the changing face of rural life is opening in Cardigan.

West Wales artist Sue Dewhurst will present From the Outside Looking In at Oriel Cardi Bach, with the exhibition running from June 27 to July 30.

The collection brings together several new series of work reflecting on the people, places and traditions that shaped Dewhurst’s childhood in the 1970s.

At the heart of the exhibition are the Chapel Girls, a group of paintings focusing on women who might once have filled the chapels that dominated Welsh village life. In Dewhurst’s work, they are now seen finding new forms of belonging through shopping trips, bingo halls, dating apps, bottomless brunches and everyday rituals, while redundant chapels stand silent around them.

The exhibition also includes A Bit of a Do, a series inspired by weddings, family parties and village hall celebrations.

Among the familiar characters are the mysterious woman in her best hat who appears at every gathering, the accountant calculating buffet logistics, the retired nurse dancing barefoot long after everyone else has gone home, and Harry, a grumpy gent with a mysteriously missing fingertip that nobody dares ask about.

Dewhurst’s Ghost Town series will also feature, exploring the changing landscapes of northern mill towns and communities transformed beyond recognition. These works sit alongside expressive coastal paintings inspired by New Quay and the Ceredigion coast.

A further installation of miniature “party paintings” will be presented like treasured relics rescued from a forgotten village hall or working men’s club. Wrapped with handwritten stories and nostalgic memorabilia, the pieces invite visitors to remember people and moments that might otherwise disappear.

Sue said music also plays an important role in the exhibition.

She said: “Music is so evocative for me and can instantly transport me back to a certain point in time.

“I’ve always been fascinated by the lives we don’t usually celebrate – the women who held communities together, the odd characters who turned up at every family occasion, the places that shaped us and the memories that linger long after buildings and traditions have changed.

“This exhibition is really about looking back with affection and humour, while recognising that we are all, in one way or another, trying to find where we belong.”

Originally from Lancashire and now based near Llandysul, Dewhurst has spent more than thirty years working in the arts. She previously ran Oriel Haywire in Llandysul before its closure around eighteen months ago.

From the Outside Looking In opens at Oriel Cardi Bach, Cardigan, on June 27 and runs until July 30.

Visitors are invited to rediscover familiar faces, forgotten stories and the beauty found in ordinary lives.