Labour faces historic setback as new modelling points to a hung Senedd

PLAID CYMRU and Reform UK are projected to finish level on seats in Thursday’s (May 7) Senedd election, according to a final poll published just days before voting begins.

The More in Common MRP survey suggests both parties could win 34 seats in the expanded 96-member Senedd, leaving neither close to the 49 needed for an overall majority.

The findings point to a major shift in Welsh politics, with Labour — which has led every Welsh Government since devolution began — forecast to fall to third place.

The poll puts Plaid Cymru on 30% of the vote and Reform UK on 27%. Labour is projected to win 14 seats, with the Conservatives on nine and the Greens on five. The Liberal Democrats are not forecast to win any seats.

If the figures are borne out, Wales would be left with a hung Senedd and no simple route to forming a government.

A Plaid Cymru–Labour deal would reach 48 seats, one short of a majority. That could leave party leaders facing talks over a minority administration, a confidence-and-supply agreement, or a broader arrangement involving the Greens.

Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “With less than a week to go, the race has tightened.

“As we saw ahead of the Caerphilly by-election, Labour is being squeezed in the final days as voters rally behind Plaid Cymru as the progressive alternative to Reform.

“After nearly three decades leading the Senedd, Labour could fail to top the poll in any constituency and be pushed into third place.

“For Reform, this would represent an extraordinary breakthrough — going from barely contesting the last Senedd election to being in contention for the highest number of seats.

“But even Rhun ap Iorwerth will not be celebrating yet — the outcome is likely to require complex coalition or confidence-and-supply negotiations.”

The survey was based on responses from 2,159 people across Wales between March and April.

The election is being fought under a new system, with 96 Members elected across 16 larger constituencies. Seats will be allocated using the d’Hondt method, meaning small changes in vote share could affect the final outcome.

More in Common said around one in six seats could be decided by margins of less than 2.5%, with some final seats in constituencies potentially turning on extremely small differences.

The modelling also suggests First Minister Eluned Morgan could be under pressure in the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency, where Labour is projected to finish fourth.

With polling day now close, the final result remains highly uncertain — but the survey suggests Wales could be heading for a Senedd where no party is able to govern alone.

Cross-party backlash as proposal to target Green-voting areas sparks outrage

REFORM UK has been accused of seeking to “punish voters” after unveiling a controversial plan to site migrant detention centres in areas that do not support the party.

The proposal forms part of the party’s pledge to deport “all illegal migrants” in Britain, which would require holding tens of thousands of people at a time in large-scale detention facilities.

In a statement, Reform said the centres would not be located in constituencies where it holds parliamentary seats or controls local councils. Instead, it would prioritise areas represented by the Green Party of England and Wales.

The party said: “If you vote in a Reform council or Reform MP, we guarantee you won’t have a detention centre near you. If you vote Green, there’s a good chance you will.”

Reform argued the approach was an “exercise in democratic consent”, claiming communities that back stricter immigration policies should not bear the burden of enforcement measures.

Political storm

The announcement triggered swift condemnation from across the political spectrum.

Mothin Ali said the policy was “abhorrent” and accused Reform of making inflammatory statements to distract from its wider agenda.

Labour chair Anna Turley described the proposal as “grotesque”, warning it undermined fundamental democratic principles by targeting communities based on how they vote.

Senior figures within the Conservative Party also voiced concern. Leader Kemi Badenoch shared criticism from former minister Simon Clarke, who warned the policy could amount to an abuse of power.

Clarke said deliberately siting facilities in areas based on voting patterns would likely face legal challenge and could be struck down in court, potentially costing taxpayers millions.

Legal and practical doubts

Critics have also raised questions over whether the plan could be implemented in practice.

Large detention centres would require suitable locations, infrastructure, and planning approval, as well as compliance with domestic law and international obligations.

Legal experts have suggested that targeting specific areas for political reasons could be open to challenge, particularly if it is seen as discriminatory or lacking a rational planning basis.

Reform’s defence

Reform has defended the proposal, insisting it is about fairness and accountability.

The party argues that voters who support stricter immigration controls should not be forced to host detention facilities, while those backing more liberal approaches should accept the consequences of their stance.

The policy was also framed as a direct challenge to Zack Polanski, with Reform suggesting Green politicians should “embrace” the idea.

Election backdrop

The row comes just days before local elections, with critics accusing Reform of deliberately provoking controversy to dominate the political agenda.

While the policy may appeal to the party’s core supporters, opponents say it risks alienating mainstream voters by appearing divisive and vindictive.

A VOTE for Reform will end in chaos for the Welsh Government if they gain power, and Plaid Cymru’s childcare proposals are “unsustainable without swingeing cuts,” Labour Senedd hopeful Eluned Morgan has warned.

The May 7 Senedd elections will see 44 candidates fighting for your vote in Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion in the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency stretching from north of Aberystwyth to Angle in the southwest and Llanteg in the southeast.

There are six Welsh Conservatives candidates, Plaid Cymru has eight candidates, Wales Green Party has six candidates, Reform UK also has six candidates, Welsh Labour is fielding seven candidates, Welsh Liberal Democrats have six candidates, one candidate is standing for Gwlad, and one for Heritage Party – Keep Our Countryside Green, along with three independents.

If a party wins enough votes, they will win one or more seats in the Senedd; if an independent candidate wins enough votes, they will win a seat in the Senedd.

Seats will reflect the percentage of votes each party or independent candidate gets.

One of those standing is Labour’s Eluned Morgan, most recently First Minister, who spoke to the Local Democracy Reporting Service in Narberth recently.

Many polls have suggested Labour is going to be hit hard by the ballot box on May 7, Eluned Morgan responding: “Polls are massively challenging, but nobody’s cast a vote yet, there’s a lot of undecided people out there.

“One of the things that comes up a lot [in canvassing] is the NHS, we need a sustainable offer in the future, at the beginning of the campaign there were a lot of scare stories about Withybush’s emergency department being closed, every election they say the same: ‘Withybush will close,’ and it never does.

“If we get in, we’ll have a £4bn programme for hospitals; there needs to be a new hospital in west Wales.

“We’ve spent a lot of money – £12m – on supporting Withybush, you don’t do that if you want to close a hospital.”

Polls have indicated one single party may not be able to gain enough votes to govern.

On the issue of a potential coalition or working closer with another party like Plaid Cymru, she said: “I’m not making promises on anything until after the election, what I will say is we won’t under any circumstances work with Reform, it’s important our values are clear and we wouldn’t work with them.”

On Reform she added: “People should think carefully about the services that they rely on and ask the question can they be assured they would continue if Reform were in power? They are untested, they have no coherence as a group.

“I know a win for Reform will end in chaos for the Welsh Government if they are the majority party.”

Plaid Cymru has pledged to provide universal childcare for children aged nine months to four years if the party forms the next Welsh government.

Responding, Eluned said: “Plaid are making promises way beyond what is affordable, their childcare offer we know is simply unsustainable without swingeing cuts in public services.

“I think that if Plaid is the majority party there will be public sector pay freezes for around 350,000 people in Wales if they fulfil their promises around childcare. We’re talking nurses, teachers, binmen, council office workers; because I can’t see where the money’s coming from.”

On her recent call for the controversial DARC ‘space radar’ proposals at Brawdy to be halted, she said: “During an election people need to know where you stand; Trump’s behaviour recently and his criticism in particular of the British armed forces has been unacceptable, his insults to people who served in Afghanistan really cut people.

“Until we get more clarity on whether he is a reliable partner I don’t think it is time to start a new defence project.”