Politics

Cameron’s hamstrung Exchequer

Published

9 years ago

April 28, 2017

Pledges cost money: David Cameron’s hamstrung Exchequer

THE NATIONAL tabloids are often full of foaming at the mouth headlines about ‘scroungers’, stories about ‘dole fiddlers’, and tales expressing horror that some people pretend to be ill to get disability benefits.

That is nothing new and it is conspicuous that there is a spike in such stories (particularly involving those from outside the UK) when governments of whatever complexion have announced ‘welfare reform’ (cuts) ‘designed to deliver to those most in need’ (not those in most in need).

WHERE THE MONEY GOES: PENSIONS

Welfare spending makes up around 35% of the UK Government’s spending and totals over £260b per year. However, ‘welfare’ is a broad term and only a fraction of welfare benefits spending is on unemployment benefits.

The largest amount paid out in welfare benefits is for pensions and the Office for National Statistics’ last available figures show that £108b of the £258b welfare spend in 2014/15 went on pensions.

In fact, total pension spending has increased by 25% since the financial year 2010/11. This isn’t surprising as life expectancy has been steadily increasing, so state pensions are being claimed for longer. The remaining life expectancy for someone aged 65, in 2016, is 21 years for a man and 24 for a woman.

What that means is that the idea that people have ‘paid in what they get out’ is increasingly untrue. Some of those claiming pensions will have contributed comparatively little to their state pensions, whereas actuarial calculations on future pension need carried out when older pensioners were working would have been predicated on them dying within a few years of retirement. The fact that we are all living longer means that the proportion spent on pensions is likely to continue to rise just at the point when the working age population which funds the spending is in decline.

WHERE THE MONEY GOES: CARE AND DISABILITY

£29 b is spent on personal social services. About £41 b goes on benefits for people who are ill or disabled, while £10 b goes on elderly care payments. Disabled people are more likely to live in deprived areas and work in routine occupations. In the 2011 Census, 18% of people (10 million) reported some form of disability.

As for elderly care, there were 9.2 million people aged 65+ in 2011, making up 16% of our population. The care home population has actually stabilised over the last decade at around 300,000 people, but there has been an increase of 600,000 people (likely family members) providing unpaid care between 2001 and 2011. In total, 5.8 million (10%) provided unpaid care in England and Wales in 2011, and the majority were of working age.

W HERE THE MONEY GOES: POVERTY AND THE UNEMPLOYED

£44 b goes on family benefits, income support and tax credits. This includes benefits such as child benefit and support for people on low income. Around £3.5 b goes to the unemployed.

There were around 3 million people in in-work poverty in 2013. This meant their household income (adjusted for household size and composition) was below the poverty threshold and were in employment themselves. The 10% of households with the lowest disposable income spent an average of £196 a week in 2013. Of this, half (£98) was spent on food and non-alcoholic drinks, transport, housing (including net rent), and household fuel and power.

As for out of work people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit, there were 760,200 people claiming these benefits in January 2016. This number has decreased by 11.2% compared with a year earlier

WHAT ABOUT FRAUD?

The notion, often pushed by the tabloids, is that there is a massive amount of benefit fraud. A poll carried out by the TUC in 2012 revealed that British people believed that 27% of benefits were claimed fraudulently.

To describe that as a ‘wild overstatement’ does not do how wrong it is justice. It seems to be one of those figures arrived at on the basis that ‘everybody knows’, rather than being remotely founded in reality.

The actual level of all fraud in the UK’s welfare benefits system was 0.8% in 2014/15.

While that is the amount of detected fraud, to suggest that it is completely out of line with actuality is to ignore the fact that the UK government employs 12 times as many benefits fraud investigators than it has tax fraud investigators.

The UK loses six times more through tax evasion and aggressive tax avoidance than the total value of fraudulent welfare benefit claims. Moreover, the UK fails to collect £34b in tax each year. And that is providing you accept the UK government’s figures, which are disputed by some economists as a wild underestimate.

While benefits fraud is an issue, there is an argument that the amount of time spent on it and the amount of publicity it receives is out of all proportion to the actual value of the fraud involved.

University of Warwick political scientist Adam Taylor said: “

This isn’t to say that benefit fraud is OK or that HMRC isn’t doing anything about tax evasion. But it is wrong that the government feels it can openly threaten the poor while merely cajoling the rich. And it is sad that the tax-burdened middle class reserve their outrage for the single mother working in the cafe while lionising the rich, famous and powerful who are getting away with it, tax free.”

WHO PAYS?

Successive governments have been aware of the crisis facing benefit payments for over two decades and yet none of them has sought to do anything more than fiddle at the margins and target the most vulnerable and weakest members of society: the Cameron Government spent an enormous amount of political capital to no good end making an economically pointless adjustment to housing benefit with the hated bedroom tax. The projected savings from that policy were tiny.

In addition, the amount of direct tax paid by the working population is contracting along with the numbers of those in work and the changing profile of work economic activity.

In the past, when the welfare model was fixed, there was generally one full time bread winner per working class family in a job which lasted an entire working life. Stable incomes represented a stable and predictable tax yield. However, the change from a high labour manufacturing economy to a service-based one with lower labour requirements, altered the whole dynamic of working class life. Multiple part time jobs may reduce the number on the unemployed role, but lower income jobs pay less into the UK’s tax base.

So, the question that all governments face is how to provide people with the welfare benefits they need without upsetting voters who have to pay for them.

NO EASY ANSWER

The issue is particularly acute due to David Cameron’s 2015 promise not to raise National Insurance, Income Tax, or VAT. Where else, the question might fairly be asked, would the money come from? Especially as there is a guaranteed 2.5% increase per annum in the state pension.

Oh – and older voters and pensioners vote in far higher numbers than the young. On the basis that turkeys seldom vote for Christmas, you can guess why politicians are wary of doing anything to affect that demographic.

One thing is certain, fiddling at the margins is not enough. But whether politicians have the will to make the sort of changes needed to the UK’s tax and welfare system, is one of those questions to which there is no glib answer.

Which do you prefer, after all, higher taxes or cuts targeted at those least able to defend themselves?

Politics

Ajax armoured vehicle trial paused again as MP warns jobs must be protected

Published

2 hours ago

December 18, 2025

Tom Sinclair

A FRESH pause to trials of the Ajax armoured vehicle programme has prompted renewed calls for workers’ jobs in Wales to be safeguarded.

The trial has been halted after another soldier reportedly fell ill during testing, adding to a series of delays and technical problems that have dogged the long-running Ministry of Defence project.

Welsh Liberal Democrat Westminster spokesperson David Chadwick MP said the repeated failures raised serious questions about accountability and cost.

He warned ministers must ensure taxpayers are not left footing the bill if the programme ultimately collapses, arguing that responsibility should rest with defence contractor General Dynamics.

“With the Ajax programme beset by repeated failures and significant delays, ministers need to confirm that taxpayers will not be left to bear the cost of these failures,” he said.

“If the project does end up being scrapped, the Government must ensure that the 400 workers currently employed on the programme in Merthyr Tydfil will receive full support.”

Mr Chadwick added that the Merthyr site should be prioritised for future defence and military development work if Ajax does not proceed, to protect skilled jobs and investment in the area.

The Ajax programme has faced years of scrutiny over safety concerns, excessive noise and vibration, and mounting delays, with the latest pause reigniting pressure on the Government to clarify the project’s future.

Health

‘Children spending more time in digital worlds than the real one’

Published

5 hours ago

December 18, 2025

Chris Haines, ICNN Senedd reporter

CHILDREN are spending more time in digital worlds than the real one, the Senedd has heard, with excessive screen use shaping behaviour and health in ways society cannot ignore.

Labour’s John Griffiths expressed concerns about the impact of smartphones and online gaming on young people amid an “epidemic of screen use” in Wales.

Mr Griffiths titled the debate “Locked in, Bruh!” – “the state of playing a video game while oblivious to anything else” – on the suggestion of Tom, a teenager from Newport.

He raised research from the Centre for Social Justice, a thinktank, which estimates that up to 814,000 UK children aged three to five are already engaging with social media.

The Newport East Senedd Member told the chamber two-thirds of primary school pupils in Wales have their own smartphone by the age of 11.

Mr Griffiths said boys spend two hours more a day on online gaming while girls spend more time on social media and “reel scrolling” which has been linked to damaging self-esteem.

He told Senedd Members: “Boys are becoming more short-tempered and violent when exposed to violent video games and there is, rightly, much concern that children in more deprived families are particularly vulnerable.”

Mr Griffiths, who was first elected in 1999 and will stand down in 2026, said children aged five to 16 spend at least six hours a day looking at a screen. He added that for children, aged 11 to 14, that figure rises to nine hours a day.

He pointed to research showing more than 70% of young people in the UK do not undertake an hour of physical activity a day yet have at least six hours to spend looking at a screen.

He said: “Children are sat inside with a screen at the end of their nose and are not spending time outside enjoying their local communities or playing and interacting with friends.”

Mr Griffiths warned of increasing levels of obesity and rising numbers of young people reporting vision problems, with one in three children globally now short-sighted.

He told the Senedd: “As for the mental health and wider social impacts, anxiety and depression are increasingly linked to excessive screen use as is sleep disruption – with social media interfering with rest and emotional development.”

He raised a New Zealand study of more than 6,000 children that found a correlation between excessive screen time and below-average performance in literacy and numeracy. He warned children have increasingly shortened attention spans and an inability to concentrate.

Mr Griffiths shared the case of his constituent, Danielle, who said her son becomes more aggressive and snappier after a significant time gaming. Lucy, another constituent, explained how her children find the endless reels on social media addictive.

“Once they start scrolling, it’s hard to break that cycle,” the Senedd Member said. “And when she and her husband take the devices away, it often results in tantrums and tears.”

Mr Griffiths raised the example of countries such as Australia, France and Italy which have introduced strict age checks and bans on social media for under 16s.

He acknowledged such a policy would need to come from the UK Government because powers over internet services are not devolved. But he said Wales has the authority to introduce measures through education policy on, for example, smartphones in schools.

The Tories’ Sam Rowlands warned algorithms are having a “sickening” effect on teenagers who are eight times more likely to act on self-harm urges when exposed to such content. “TikTok users with eating disorders receive over 4,000% more toxic content,” he warned.

Responding to Wednesday’s (December 17) debate, Jane Hutt recognised how so-called doom scrolling can have a detrimental impact on young people.

Wales’ social justice secretary said: “We are living through profound change. Childhood today is shaped by technology in ways that were unimaginable a generation ago… For many young people, screens, smartphones and online gaming are part of everyday life.”

Jane Hutt, secretary for social justice, trefnydd and chief whip

Community

Senedd unanimously backs sign language bill

Published

5 hours ago

December 18, 2025

Chris Haines, ICNN Senedd reporter

PLANS to make Wales the best place in the UK for British Sign Language (BSL) users moved a significant step closer to becoming law with the Senedd’s unanimous support.

If ultimately passed, the BSL bill – introduced by the Conservatives’ Mark Isherwood – would end Wales’ status as the only UK nation without specific sign language protections.

Leading a debate on Wednesday December 17, Mr Isherwood said the Senedd supporting the bill’s general principles was a “huge step ahead” for the “vital” legislation.

Mr Isherwood, a disability rights campaigner for decades, explained his backbench bill would introduce legal requirements to promote and facilitate the use of BSL in Wales.

He said the bill, if passed, would be the most progressive piece of BSL legislation anywhere in the UK, recognising BSL is a language in its own right, not a communication support need.

He highlighted that the bill would establish a BSL adviser role, the first statutory post of its kind in the UK, describing its importance as something that “cannot be overstated”.

Mr Isherwood, who chairs cross-party groups on disability and deaf issues, told the Senedd: “This isn’t just my bill. This is the bill of the BSL community. Let’s make this happen together and be proud of it together on behalf of deaf people across Wales.”

Jenny Rathbone, the Labour chair of the Senedd’s equality committee, was convinced of the “overdue” need for legislation to give more standing to British Sign Language.

Ms Rathbone said the committee heard the biggest barrier “by some margin” was the availability of interpreters and the sustainability of the workforce.

She quoted a signer who told the committee: “The bill would make us feel respected and valued. But without proper funding, planning and deaf-led leadership, it won’t go far enough.”

Sioned Williams, Plaid Cymru’s shadow social justice secretary, told Senedd members: “Language is a part of our identity, our culture and our personal dignity.

“When someone cannot use their language, they are excluded from education, health care, employment and public life – and that is not acceptable in today’s Wales.”

Sioned Williams MS, Plaid Cymru's shadow social justice secretary — Sioned Williams MS, Plaid Cymru’s shadow social justice secretary

Ms Williams warned that if the legislation fails to deliver real change, the deaf community would be left “angry, disappointed and very, very disheartened”.

She expressed concern that the bill does not legally require the BSL adviser to be a deaf person, arguing it is “not appropriate, possible or efficient” for non-signers to lead the way.

Mr Isherwood defended the decision not to require that the adviser must be deaf, warning a successful legal challenge to a single such provision could cause the entire bill to fail.

Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds warned of an immediate workforce crisis, with only 54 registered sign language interpreters in Wales as of July.

With many now approaching the end of their working lives, she said: “We cannot – we must not – allow this bill to fail because we didn’t have the foresight to address this crisis now.”

Support for the bill stretched across the political spectrum, with Reform UK’s Laura Anne Jones similarly welcoming the “long-overdue” and “vital” legislation.

Jane Hutt, Wales’ social justice secretary, confirmed the Welsh Government’s financial backing, committing £214,300 for the bill’s first year of implementation in 2026/27.

If it clears the final hurdles, Mr Isherwood’s proposal will be the first backbench bill to enter the statute book in about a decade following the Nurse Staffing Levels (Wales) Act 2016.