A DOCUMENT which the UK Government was forced to publish by the House of Commons was redacted to remove a reference to the potential closure of two UK oil refineries.

The document, referred to as ‘Operation Yellowhammer’, was leaked to the Sunday Times last month.

Described originally as a ‘Baseline Assessment’ of the consequences of leaving the EU without a deal, it sets out a range of scenarios that the documents authors believe are likely to occur in the short to medium term following a crash-out Brexit.

The copy published by the Government removes the reference to it being a baseline assessment.

The leaked ‘Yellowhammer’ document went into detail about the risk that leaving the EU without a deal presented to key UK sectors, including ports and refinery capacity.

Both are key issues for the Haven Waterway, which is dependent on export and import trade and is particularly sensitive to tariff changes.

However, the version of the Yellowhammer document published by the government has removed any reference to the risk to ports and refinery capacity.

The document states those on the lowest incomes will bear most of the burden of a crash-out Brexit.

The Westminster Government plans for a no-deal Brexit include a proposal for petrol imports to be tariff-free. However, if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, there would be a tariff on petrol exports. That would include petroleum and other refined oil products leaving the Valero refinery.

The leaked documents state that this could lead to ‘significant financial losses’ and suggests that the price of the policy would be the closure of two (unnamed) refineries.

The removal of that reference could mean several things: that the government has resolved the issue; that the government is in the process of resolving it; that the government is desperately attempting to avoid confirming an assessment that would clobber its chances of retaining seats in any of the areas affected. Preseli Pembrokeshire is, notionally, a highly marginal seat, currently held by Stephen Crabb. South Pembrokeshire is represented by junior Cabinet Office minister Simon Hart.

If Valero stopped production the impact on the local economy would be catastrophic; not only for workers on-site but also for companies concerned in the refinery’s supply chain.

The position is complicated by the recent disastrous forced shutdown at Valero following a major power cut. The loss of power damaged the refinery’s cracker plant, which will cost millions to repair.

Valero says it is committed to Pembrokeshire for the long term. However, at the time of the original leak, Valero General Manager Ed Tomp stated: “We are concerned that 0% import tariffs on petrol could create an unfair advantage for importers, resulting in a negative impact on all UK refineries.

“As such we have been working with UKPIA (the United Kingdom Petroleum Industry Association) to ensure our concerns – and the potential impact of zero tariffs – are clearly communicated to the UK Government.”

Mr Crabb has since written to the Trade Secretary, Elizabeth Truss, to ask her to rethink the tariffs to ensure there was a ‘level playing field’ for all refineries.

The Government remains silent, however, about what progress it has made towards ensuring that thousands of jobs across Pembrokeshire are not lost if the Valero refinery is made unviable by the effects of a crash-out Brexit.