Labour faces historic setback as new modelling points to a hung Senedd

PLAID CYMRU and Reform UK are projected to finish level on seats in Thursday’s (May 7) Senedd election, according to a final poll published just days before voting begins.

The More in Common MRP survey suggests both parties could win 34 seats in the expanded 96-member Senedd, leaving neither close to the 49 needed for an overall majority.

The findings point to a major shift in Welsh politics, with Labour — which has led every Welsh Government since devolution began — forecast to fall to third place.

The poll puts Plaid Cymru on 30% of the vote and Reform UK on 27%. Labour is projected to win 14 seats, with the Conservatives on nine and the Greens on five. The Liberal Democrats are not forecast to win any seats.

If the figures are borne out, Wales would be left with a hung Senedd and no simple route to forming a government.

A Plaid Cymru–Labour deal would reach 48 seats, one short of a majority. That could leave party leaders facing talks over a minority administration, a confidence-and-supply agreement, or a broader arrangement involving the Greens.

Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “With less than a week to go, the race has tightened.

“As we saw ahead of the Caerphilly by-election, Labour is being squeezed in the final days as voters rally behind Plaid Cymru as the progressive alternative to Reform.

“After nearly three decades leading the Senedd, Labour could fail to top the poll in any constituency and be pushed into third place.

“For Reform, this would represent an extraordinary breakthrough — going from barely contesting the last Senedd election to being in contention for the highest number of seats.

“But even Rhun ap Iorwerth will not be celebrating yet — the outcome is likely to require complex coalition or confidence-and-supply negotiations.”

The survey was based on responses from 2,159 people across Wales between March and April.

The election is being fought under a new system, with 96 Members elected across 16 larger constituencies. Seats will be allocated using the d’Hondt method, meaning small changes in vote share could affect the final outcome.

More in Common said around one in six seats could be decided by margins of less than 2.5%, with some final seats in constituencies potentially turning on extremely small differences.

The modelling also suggests First Minister Eluned Morgan could be under pressure in the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency, where Labour is projected to finish fourth.

With polling day now close, the final result remains highly uncertain — but the survey suggests Wales could be heading for a Senedd where no party is able to govern alone.

Cross-party backlash as proposal to target Green-voting areas sparks outrage

REFORM UK has been accused of seeking to “punish voters” after unveiling a controversial plan to site migrant detention centres in areas that do not support the party.

The proposal forms part of the party’s pledge to deport “all illegal migrants” in Britain, which would require holding tens of thousands of people at a time in large-scale detention facilities.

In a statement, Reform said the centres would not be located in constituencies where it holds parliamentary seats or controls local councils. Instead, it would prioritise areas represented by the Green Party of England and Wales.

The party said: “If you vote in a Reform council or Reform MP, we guarantee you won’t have a detention centre near you. If you vote Green, there’s a good chance you will.”

Reform argued the approach was an “exercise in democratic consent”, claiming communities that back stricter immigration policies should not bear the burden of enforcement measures.

Political storm

The announcement triggered swift condemnation from across the political spectrum.

Mothin Ali said the policy was “abhorrent” and accused Reform of making inflammatory statements to distract from its wider agenda.

Labour chair Anna Turley described the proposal as “grotesque”, warning it undermined fundamental democratic principles by targeting communities based on how they vote.

Senior figures within the Conservative Party also voiced concern. Leader Kemi Badenoch shared criticism from former minister Simon Clarke, who warned the policy could amount to an abuse of power.

Clarke said deliberately siting facilities in areas based on voting patterns would likely face legal challenge and could be struck down in court, potentially costing taxpayers millions.

Legal and practical doubts

Critics have also raised questions over whether the plan could be implemented in practice.

Large detention centres would require suitable locations, infrastructure, and planning approval, as well as compliance with domestic law and international obligations.

Legal experts have suggested that targeting specific areas for political reasons could be open to challenge, particularly if it is seen as discriminatory or lacking a rational planning basis.

Reform’s defence

Reform has defended the proposal, insisting it is about fairness and accountability.

The party argues that voters who support stricter immigration controls should not be forced to host detention facilities, while those backing more liberal approaches should accept the consequences of their stance.

The policy was also framed as a direct challenge to Zack Polanski, with Reform suggesting Green politicians should “embrace” the idea.

Election backdrop

The row comes just days before local elections, with critics accusing Reform of deliberately provoking controversy to dominate the political agenda.

While the policy may appeal to the party’s core supporters, opponents say it risks alienating mainstream voters by appearing divisive and vindictive.

A LAND ROVER Discovery has been lost to the sea at Abersoch after becoming stranded on the resort’s Main Beach.

The vehicle, worth tens of thousands of pounds, was spotted by early morning dog walkers on the sand at the Gwynedd coastal village before being completely covered by the incoming tide at around 10:00am.

Stranded on sand

Images circulating on social media showed the 4×4 marooned on the beach, with some locals initially questioning whether the pictures were genuine.

However, witnesses later confirmed the incident, with one RIB owner reporting: “People are paddleboarding over its roof!”

It is believed the vehicle may have become stuck while being used to recover a boat trailer or jet ski.

‘Not the first’

Locals said the incident was a familiar sight at the popular seaside resort, where vehicles have previously become trapped by soft sand and fast-moving tides.

One man wrote: “Not the first and it won’t be the last.”

Another joked: “The tide comes in. Who knew?”

Others described it as the start of the “silly season”, when coastal mishaps increase as visitor numbers rise.

Expensive mistake

New Land Rover Discovery models can cost around £80,000, while Discovery Sport models start from about £55,000.

Commenters suggested the vehicle’s off-road reputation may have given the driver false confidence.

One wrote: “It probably gave him a sense of security that it can go anywhere — we all know it can’t.”

Recovery expected

As the tide began to recede, boat owners reported the outline of the vehicle starting to reappear beneath the water.

Recovery was expected to require a beach tractor, but seawater damage means the Land Rover is likely to be written off.

One local said: “Very sad to see that something went wrong. You see many cars go into the sea to retrieve boat trailers, and you know that car will be rotten very soon afterwards.

“There’s a reason why old tractors are used.”

Despite the flood of “can’t park there” jokes and “Chelsea tractor” comments online, many said they felt sorry for the owner, who now faces what one person called a “very expensive weekend.”