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The Chancellor’s fancy footwork solves nothing

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THE CONDITIONAL phrase is a friend to politicians of all parties in all governments.
At its simplest, the proposition is: “If this happens, then we might be able to do this”.
The Chancellor’s Budget on Wednesday (Mar 6) was an example of the conditional phrase on steroids.

IT ALL DEPENDS

“If this happens, then that happens, and provided these things also happen, we might be in a position to consider doing this”.
As a strategy for spending on public services, it’s nonsense.
The UK Government is not in control of events that might affect its capacity to achieve even stage one of the processes that, on some far-away date, might mean it gets close to delivering public services more efficiently.
Let’s get that out of the way, for starters.
That is quite bad enough, but the Chancellor – not alone in this fiscal fraud – goes one step further.
Mr Hunt says the UK must cut its national debt, the amount it has borrowed to pay for Covid, Liz Truss, and other disasters. That objective is noble but meaningless. The debt the UK owes will rise over the next three years. It will only fall in the fifth year of the spending cycle and then only against the previous year’s debt.
That means the amount of debt the UK is in will rise over the next half-decade.
In turn, future repayments of that debt’s capital must be met out of future government revenues. The limited number of ways that can happen include refinancing the debt (putting off the payment to the future), raising taxes, and cutting public spending: probably a mix of all three.
The disingenuous lunatics on the Conservative right-wing bang on about how it’s all the Office of Budget Responsibility’s fault. The rules on debt and fiscal policy are not the OBR’s rules. They are the Chancellor’s. The OBR applies them to the Chancellor’s spending and taxation plans.
It is rather like Harold Shipman complaining he only murdered his victims because the pharmacist supplied him with poison. The intent is all on the Chancellor’s part.
Keir Starmer claimed the Government had “maxed-out” the nation’s credit card.
He is right, but only to an extent.
The central flaw in fiscal policy is that the Treasury—and therefore the Office of Budget Responsibility—fails to distinguish between borrowing and spending for investment and borrowing and spending to deliver day-to-day services and to make up for revenue shortfalls.
As Labour has chained itself to the wheel of the current spending approach, we will have to get used to paying more for less for years to come.
Any UK Government could borrow for future investment, putting the National Debt above 100% of GDP. However, that will likely increase the cost of borrowing and devalue the assets securing the current debt, such as UK Government bonds.
The markets wouldn’t wear that when Liz Truss tried it. They won’t wear it now. Borrowing more money while cutting taxes is like taking out a £500,000 loan, leaving a well-paid job that could service it, and deciding to work three shifts a week on a filling station forecourt.
Sooner or later, the bailiffs come knocking.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The political back-and-forth is interesting only to those with little stake in the Budget’s outcome, at least as it affects average families on average incomes.
A billion here, a hundred million there. Those are empty numbers.
The bottom line matters.
The Chancellor announced a cut in National Insurance from 10% to 8%. Last year, he reduced it by 12% to 10%. Forgetting, of course, that his predecessor (Sunak, R.) increased National Insurance in the first place.
However, Mr Hunt did not increase the wage level at which National Insurance starts being paid. That means the amount by which most workers on modest or average wages benefit from an NI cut will be eaten up by any pay increases they’ve received over the last two years of high inflation.
The income tax thresholds also remain stationary, pulling more people into paying the basic rate thanks to pay increases and the increased National Minimum Wage.
It’s sleight of hand. An apparent tax cut will leave people superficially better off but no richer.
In other titbits, the Chancellor announced the continuation of the 5p levy reduction on fuel for motor vehicles and a freeze on the duty on booze.
Mr Hunt also unveiled a new tax on vaping products from October 2026, linked to the levels of nicotine they deliver. At the same time, tobacco duty will rise by £2.00 per 100 cigarettes to ensure vaping remains cheaper.
From this April, the threshold at which small businesses must register to pay VAT goes up from £85,000 to £90,000. It’s something, but not much of something, as the threshold’s been frozen for the last seven years.
Mr Hunt also scrapped tax reliefs for the owners of furnished holiday lets. Holidays let owners claim capital gains tax reliefs and plant and machinery capital allowances for items such as furniture and other fixtures. At the same time, their profits can count as earnings for pension purposes.
Abolishing that tax break will save the UK government around £250 million annually starting from April 2025.
Holiday let investors could lose an average of £2,835 a year in tax, based on a property purchase price of £350,000, an annual mortgage rate of 4.5%, and £20,000 in rental income.

PUBLIC SERVICES IN LIMBO

The constant drive for “greater efficiency” in the public sector boldly and unfoundedly assumes that public service “productivity” is the same as the private sector’s. It isn’t.
Making a pin more efficiently through the division of labour is not the same as treating a patient for cancer or collecting bins.
In all efficiency drives, the point always arrives when there are no more lightbulbs or photocopiers to turn off at night, meaning savings must be found in frontline service budgets. Mr Hunt announced plans to “digitally transform” the NHS. Fat chance. The atomisation of the NHS into trusts and boards that must compete for money by offering the most at the least cost dooms the project to expensive failure.
The same applies to local government funding and extends to Wales.
Councils competing against each other for a finite pot of resources only available to spend on what the central Government insists it is spent on negates local democracy. It favours those local authorities closest to the Central Government or with the best grants application team.
Competition for funding is no way to deliver public services and leads to vanity projects.
It is better to deliver funding fairly and through a method that ensures funding follows the need for core services.
The question is acute in Pembrokeshire.
Our Council received millions of pounds in funding for projects Pembrokeshire does not necessarily need. The money would have been better allocated to the cost of adult social care delivery. However, the UK and Welsh Governments did not make tens of millions of pounds available to meet that need. Instead, we can have money for “Instagrammable bridges” and “transport hubs” because we won a prize in a competition with other broke local authorities to build things we don’t need.
It’s nonsense. And, at heart, every county councillor knows it is.
Any elected representative (whether councillor, MP, or MS) who doesn’t is unfit for public office.

 

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OPINION: Why Pembrokeshire should back DARC

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This is not the time to turn our backs on jobs, security and our proud defence heritage

PEMBROKESHIRE is once again being asked a simple question: do we want to be a county that helps shape Britain’s future, or one that says no to opportunity when it matters most?

The growing row over the proposed DARC project at Brawdy has generated more heat than light in recent days. With Eluned Morgan now calling for the scheme to be paused because of Donald Trump, and campaigners demanding it be scrapped altogether, it is worth stepping back from the noise and looking at what is really at stake.

Of course people are right to be alarmed by some of Trump’s behaviour. His rhetoric, his antics, and his bizarre attempts to wrap politics in religious theatre deserve criticism, ridicule even. If politicians want to condemn that kind of behaviour, fair enough. But serious decisions about Pembrokeshire’s future cannot be based on one man’s latest stunt.

Trump will not be President forever. By the time DARC is fully built, operational and delivering benefits, he will almost certainly be long gone. To throw away a major long-term opportunity for Pembrokeshire because of short-term panic over a single US President would be a serious mistake.

What is being proposed at Brawdy is not some passing political gimmick. It is a major defence and infrastructure project that would help secure the future of an existing military base, create jobs during construction, support permanent roles once operational, and ensure Pembrokeshire continues to play a serious role in national security.

That matters.

For this county, DARC is not an abstract foreign policy argument. It is a chance to protect the long-term future of a strategic site that has served Britain for decades. It is a chance to keep Brawdy alive, relevant and useful in a changing world, rather than letting it slowly drift into uncertainty and decline.

It is also a jobs issue, however much opponents try to talk that down. Construction work means contracts, wages and money circulating in the local economy. Once complete, the site would still need to be run, maintained, secured and supported. In a county where stable, skilled jobs are never to be sniffed at, that should matter to every sensible politician.

And then there is the wider issue of safety.

We are living in a more unstable world. Space is no longer some distant science-fiction sideshow. It is central to communications, intelligence, navigation and defence. Any country that cannot see what is happening above it is leaving itself dangerously exposed. Supporting DARC is not warmongering. It is common sense. It is about readiness, awareness and protecting the systems modern life now depends on.

Much of the argument against the project has been emotional. We hear a great deal about appearance, about symbolism, about fears of what the radar might represent. But leadership means weighing those concerns against reality. Pembrokeshire cannot afford to reject every major development on the basis that change makes people uncomfortable.

There is an uncomfortable truth here for DARC’s opponents. Protecting Pembrokeshire is not just about preserving a postcard view. It is also about protecting livelihoods, maintaining strategic assets, and making sure this county does not become a beautiful but economically sidelined corner of Wales where every serious opportunity is driven away.

A live military base with a renewed purpose is better than a fading one with none.

A project that brings jobs, investment and national relevance is better than managed decline dressed up as moral virtue.

And a serious defence asset in west Wales is better than the slow erosion of infrastructure while politicians pretend symbolism pays wages.

This newspaper understands why people care deeply about Pembrokeshire’s landscape and identity. So do we. But we also understand that counties survive by adapting, by staying useful, and by having the confidence to back projects that serve both local and national interests.

DARC does all of those things.

It would bring construction jobs. It would help sustain long-term operational roles. It would preserve the use of an important military base. And it would place Pembrokeshire at the heart of a serious national security project at a time when the world is becoming less safe, not more.

What Pembrokeshire needs now is not panic, hedging, or election-time theatrics. It needs backbone.

If politicians want to criticise Donald Trump, they are welcome to do so. But they should not use him as an excuse to duck a decision that could benefit Pembrokeshire for decades to come.

Trump is temporary.

The opportunity for Pembrokeshire is not.

 

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Attack on Jewish ambulances: When hatred burns, nobody wins

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THE IMAGES from Golders Green this week should stop all of us in our tracks.

Ambulances, not symbols of power, not political offices, not even property tied to profit, but ambulances, vehicles dedicated to saving lives, were set alight in the early hours of the morning. Oxygen tanks exploded. Families were forced from their homes. Volunteers who give their time freely to help others were targeted.

If that does not cross a line, then we have lost sight of where the line is.

Police are treating the attack as antisemitic. It is hard to see it as anything else. And it should be said plainly: there is no cause, no grievance, no anger about events abroad that can justify targeting Jewish communities in Britain, least of all those providing emergency care.

But if we are honest, this did not come out of nowhere.

Across Europe, and yes, in parts of the UK, tensions linked to the Israel-Gaza conflict have been bleeding into our streets, our conversations, and increasingly, our behaviour. What begins as outrage about war risks mutating into something darker: collective blame, dehumanisation, and eventually violence.

We have seen this pattern before in history. It never ends well.

At the same time, we cannot pretend that outrage only travels in one direction. Reports from the West Bank of settler violence, homes torched, communities terrorised, are deeply disturbing. Innocent people are suffering there too, often with little protection and even less accountability.

These are different situations, with different causes and different responsibilities. But they are connected by one dangerous thread: the erosion of empathy.

When people stop seeing individuals and start seeing “sides”, everything becomes easier to justify.

Burning an ambulance becomes, in someone’s mind, an act of resistance.
Torching a home becomes, in someone else’s mind, a matter of security.

Both are wrong.

And both depend on the same lie, that the person on the receiving end somehow deserves it.

Britain now faces a choice.

We can import the hatred of a conflict thousands of miles away, allowing it to fracture communities that have lived side by side for generations. Or we can draw a firm line and say: not here.

That means something uncomfortable for everyone.

Those who stand with Israel must be willing to speak out when Palestinians are attacked unjustly. Silence in those moments undermines credibility and fuels resentment.

Those who stand with Palestine must be equally clear in condemning antisemitism, not hedging it, not contextualising it, not quietly ignoring it when it appears on “their side”.

Because once you start excusing hatred when it suits your position, you are no longer arguing for justice, you are just choosing your victims.

The attack in Golders Green is not just about four burnt-out vehicles. It is a warning sign.

If ambulances are fair game, what is not?

Britain has long prided itself on being a place where different communities can live together, disagree, protest, and still recognise each other’s humanity. That tradition is under strain.

The truth is, anger is easy. Outrage is easy. Social media makes both effortless.

Restraint is harder. Nuance is harder. Refusing to hate, especially when confronted with images of suffering, is one of the hardest things we can ask of people.

But it is also the only thing that prevents society from sliding into something far worse.

The flames in Golders Green were put out.

What matters now is whether we put out the ones that lit them.

 

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A 700-year chapter of British constitutional history closes

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WHEN I was studying law at university, constitutional law lectures were easily the most boring part of the course.

Dry cases. Ancient statutes. Endless discussion about parliamentary powers, constitutional conventions and obscure historical arrangements that seemed far removed from everyday life.

At the time, I thought it was all terribly dull.

Looking back now, I realise I had completely missed the point.

Constitutional law is not simply about legal rules. It is about the story of how Britain came to govern itself. Every institution, every convention and every reform is part of a long historical journey stretching back centuries.

This week marks one of those rare moments when that history visibly turns a page.

The remaining hereditary peers in the House of Lords are set to lose their automatic right to sit and vote in Parliament. When that happens, a constitutional principle that has shaped British law and government for more than seven hundred years will finally come to an end.

The origins of the Lords lie in the medieval councils summoned by Edward I of England, when nobles and bishops were called together to advise the Crown. Over time, attendance at Parliament became tied to noble titles, and those titles were inherited.

From that point onward, birth carried political power. If your family held a peerage, you could sit in Parliament and help shape the laws of the kingdom.

For centuries that arrangement formed one of the pillars of Britain’s constitutional structure. It survived civil war, revolution, reform acts and the expansion of democracy.

Even the great wave of reform in 1999 only reduced the number of hereditary peers rather than eliminating them entirely.

Now the final remnants of that system are set to disappear.

For critics, the change is long overdue. The idea that someone should help make the law purely because of who their parents were sits uneasily with modern democratic principles.

But the hereditary peers also represented something else — a direct and living connection to the deep historical roots of the British constitution.

Many of those who remained after the reforms of the late twentieth century became respected contributors to parliamentary scrutiny. They were part of the institutional memory of Parliament, carrying with them traditions that stretched back through generations.

The removal of hereditary membership will not fundamentally alter the role of the House of Lords. It will remain a revising chamber that scrutinises the work of the House of Commons.

But symbolically, something important is ending.

A constitutional principle that endured for more than seven centuries — longer than most political systems anywhere in the world — is finally passing into history.

Those constitutional law lectures I once found so dull were not just about dusty legal doctrines.

They were about the slow evolution of the British state itself.

And this week, that story takes another step forward.

 

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