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Limited demand for Welsh housing weighing on surveyors’ outlook

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A SLOWDOWN in demand in the housing market in Wales is leading to a cautious outlook amongst surveyors for the final quarter of the year, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).

A net balance of -43% of surveyors in Wales reported that new buyer enquiries fell through September which is the lowest this balance has been since October 2023, and the lowest balance across all the UK regions.

As demand is falling, supply is rising. A net balance of 31% of Welsh respondents reported that new instructions to sell increased in the most recent survey.

However, with limited demand, it is unsurprising that sales were reported to have fallen broadly flat through September. A net balance of -3% of surveyors in Wales noted that sales had fallen, down from +28% in August.

And this may be weighing on surveyors’ outlook for sales over the next quarter. A net balance of -10% of Welsh surveyors anticipate that house sales will fall through Q4.

Regarding pricing, respondents in Wales report that prices fell broadly flat through Q3. On the outlook, a net balance of -30% of Welsh surveyors expect prices to fall over the next three months.

Looking at the lettings market, a net balance of 67% of survey respondents in Wales noted a rise in tenant demand, whilst a net balance of -40% of Welsh surveyors noted a fall in landlord instructions. This has led to a net balance of 67% of surveyors expecting rents to rise through the final quarter of 2024.

Commenting on the sales market, Anthony Filice, FRICS of Kelvin Francis Ltd, in Cardiff said: “Appraisals and instructions are strong and if realistically priced, in the middle to lower price bands, are selling. Above £800,000 and especially over £1,000,000 are slow, we suspect, waiting on the result of the Budget. Some vendors are still asking too much and ending up with even less.”

Tim Goodwin, AssocRICS of Williams & Goodwin The Property People in Gwynedd added: “There has been a noticeable increase in sales falling through in recent weeks not helped by the implementation of Article 4 Planning controls over holiday lets and second homes.”

Discussing the lettings market, Paul Lucas, FRICS of R.K.Lucas & Son in Haverfordwest commented: “Availability of rentals is scarce as landlords and second home owners retreat from the market in the light of new government legislation. Demand is high and according to standard economics principles, rents are increasing – at the present time, mostly due to government intervention.”

Commenting on the UK picture, RICS Head of Market Analytics, Tarrant Parsons, said: “The latest survey results once again convey a brighter picture for housing market activity, with the recent easing in mortgage interest rates continuing to support a recovery in buyer demand.

“Critical for the outlook, a further unwinding in monetary policy is anticipated over the months ahead, which should create a more favourable backdrop for the market moving forward. In keeping with this idea, forward-looking sentiment data from the survey points to sales volumes gaining impetus, both in the near-term and over the next twelve months.”

Business

52 homes to be built in Roch as scheme gets final sign-off

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THE FINAL stage of approval for a near-£10m Pembrokeshire residential development of 52 homes has been given the go-ahead.

Back in April, members of Pembrokeshire County Council’s planning committee backed an application by Wakefield Pembrokeshire Ltd for the development, which includes four one-bed affordable housing units, on land near Pilgrims Way, Roch.

18 objections to the scheme were received, raising concerns including an “inadequate” affordable housing level, it being a high density development for a rural area, a loss of green space, the size of some of the homes, and pressures on existing services and facilities, and fears it may lead to an increase in second homes.

Nolton & Roch Community Land Trust (N&RCLT) has raised its concerns about a lack of affordable homes at the development, calling for a 20 per cent affordable homes element, as recommended by policy.

An officer report for members, recommending conditional approval, said: “It is apparent that the proposed development is not fully policy compliant, insofar as it cannot deliver the indicative 20 per cent affordable housing sought [by policy].

“However, a substantial positive social impact will arise through the provision of housing, including four one-bed affordable housing units, in meeting identified needs for both market and affordable housing.

“Financial obligations identified to mitigate adverse impacts arising from the proposed development cannot be met in full. However, [policy] acknowledges that in such circumstances contributions may be prioritised on the basis of the individual circumstances of each case.”

Speaking at the meeting, agent Gethin Beynon said the project had a “significant economic value” of around £10m, and the local applicant had “a sense of stewardship to the local community,” offering affordable housing and community infrastructure towards highways and education.

Approval was delegated to the council’s head of planning to approve the application, subject to the completion of a Section 106 planning obligation, making community financial contributions.

The Section 106 agreement was recently agreed, with the application now formally approved.

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World of engineering and welding SPARCs interest in Ysgol Harri Tudur’s female learners

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AN EVENT hosted by Ledwood Engineering gave girls from Year 8 and 9 at Ysgol Harri Tudur first-hand experience of the world of engineering recently. 

Engineering is a booming sector in Pembrokeshire with a high demand for skilled workers in exciting career pathways associated with the development of low carbon and renewable energy industry and the Celtic Freeport. 

The young women heard from industry experts on the importance of engineering in Pembrokeshire, and had hands on experience using a welding simulator, at the company’s Pembroke Dock site. 

The learners are part of the County’s SPARC (Sustainable Power and Renewable Construction) initiative aimed as inspiring and empowering young females to consider careers in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) pathways where females are under-represented in the workforce. 

SPARC is funded through an alliance comprising Blue Gem Wind, Ledwood Engineering, Port of Milford Haven, RWE Renewables, Pembrokeshire County Council, Pembrokeshire College and the Swansea Bay City Deal. 

Mrs Laura Buckingham, SPARC practitioner at Ysgol Harri Tudur said: “Our learners had a fantastic experience at Ledwood Engineering.  They were given lots of advice by industry experts on the different career options and pathways within the engineering sector.  

“They appreciated the opportunity to ask their questions and found the session very informative. Having the chance to trial their welding skills on the simulator was an experience they continue to talk about and has definitely piqued their interest.”

Poppy Sawyer, Year 8 SPARC learner added:  ‘It was a really good trip. Talking to the different people there has helped me know more about the jobs we could get which will be very useful when making choices for my future.”  

 “They helped us a lot by giving us lots of information. We were able to look around and try welding. It was really fun,” added Tianna Marshall, Year 8 SPARC learner.

The Regional Learning and Skills Partnership also launched its Explore Engineering interactive website at the event.

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Pembrokeshire care home group hit by £150,000 budget blow

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A COMPANY with six care homes in Pembrokeshire has revealed it is facing a £150,000 financial hit due to controversial Budget measures.

The hikes in National Insurance contributions, combined with an increase in the Real Living Wage, are set to cause “12 months of instability,” according to Mike Davies, managing director of Sunset West Care Homes’ holding company, Dale Roads Group Ltd.

The group operates six care homes, including Langton Hall Residential Home in Fishguard, Pen-Coed Residential Home in Saundersfoot, and Woodfield Nursing Residential Home in Narberth. Other homes in the group are Woodland Lodge Residential Home in Tenby, Torestin Care Home in Tiers Cross near Haverfordwest, and Pembroke Haven in Pembroke Dock.

Mr Davies warned that struggling care homes may need to ask families to help cover the cost of care for their loved ones.

He is supporting a new campaign launched by Care Forum Wales (CFW), which calls for social care to receive an NHS-style exemption from National Insurance increases or emergency financial support to prevent care homes and domiciliary care providers from going bust.

Save Social Care campaign

CFW chair Mario Kreft MBE is leading the Save Social Care, Save the NHS campaign, highlighting the issue in letters to Welsh MPs, Senedd members, First Minister Eluned Morgan, and Health Minister Jeremy Miles. Similar letters have also been sent to Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

The campaign, supported by the Five Nations Group, warns that third-sector providers, including charities and hospices, face serious risks due to the Budget measures.

Mr Davies shared these concerns, stating that Sunset West Care Homes is looking at an additional bill of more than £130,000 just to cover National Insurance increases. Additionally, the group expects to incur an extra £18,000 annually to cover Statutory Sick Pay costs.

With 169 registered beds across the group, Mr Davies said further financial strain from wage increases could push care homes to the brink unless additional funding is provided by the Welsh and UK governments.

He said: “Operating during Covid stretched staff resources to their limits. Now, with these additional Budget costs, we are facing a snapshot of the challenges ahead.

“If costs remain as projected, we anticipate an extra £130,000 for National Insurance contributions alone. This doesn’t even account for the wage increases yet.”

“Uncharted territory”

Mr Davies warned that the social care sector in Pembrokeshire could face instability, with smaller operators struggling to survive.

He said: “We’ve already seen care home closures, and the likelihood is that smaller operators will find it even more difficult going forward. We are relying on additional funding to meet these new costs.

“Eighty per cent of our occupancy in the county comes from local authority placements. If there’s a shortfall, families might need to provide additional voluntary contributions.”

National funding crisis

CFW has calculated that the care sector in Wales faces a £150 million funding gap due to Budget measures, including a 1.2% rise in employer National Insurance contributions, a cut to the Secondary Threshold to £5,000, and a 5% increase in the Real Living Wage to £12.60.

Mario Kreft MBE said: “It represents a 37% increase in employer NIC for a member of staff earning £25,000 a year. This is effectively a tax on publicly funded care and on working people, which will ultimately impact families.”

Mr Davies echoed these concerns, adding: “We’ve discussed funding issues with local authorities, but they don’t have the money either. It’s going to have to come from the Welsh Government and Westminster.”

Pictured: Sunset West Care Homes group managing director Mike Davies says Budget measures will hit care homes hard (Pic: Sunset/Herald)

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