LABOUR’S conference in Llandudno last weekend was an opportunity for the Party’s great and good to come together and tell each other how wonderfully things are going.

The key message was that, while the Labour Government in Cardiff Bay was nothing less than a roaring success, things could only get better with Labour governments at either end of the M4. Labour in Wales must hope that this last phrase sticks in the electorate’s consciousness and glosses over Welsh Labour’s problems.

There are plenty of those problems, although you’d be hard-pressed to identify any of them from the keynote speeches delivered to the faithful.

Speakers hit all the important notes:

• Labour was delivering more money to the Welsh Government to spend (big cheer).
• There would be money to spend on the NHS (bigger cheer).
• There were no more Conservative MPs from Wales in Westminster (ecstatic rapture).

And so on and so forth in all the key speeches.

PREACHING TO THE CHOIR

It’s only fair to begin with the big cheese himself, Sir Keir Starmer. Cheese is the right word. The Prime Minister recapped his October speech at Labour’s national conference, and he laid on added Welsh schtick with a trowel. Nye Bevan, the NHS, the Industrial Revolution, the sense of community. All his speech lacked was the Morriston Orpheus Choir humming “A Hyd a Nos” in the background.

Thankfully, as is the way things are nowadays, there were no big announcements in Keir Starmer’s speech. Its content had been well-trailed. Bashing the Tories while taking credit for their policies and adding the odd million here and there is enough for a Labour leader in Wales to get a rapturous reception. And he got one.

Eluned Morgan was more old school: “There’s a new Wales on the horizon, and I intend to lead us there,” the First Minister began.

She continued to explain that: “The people’s priorities are my priorities.

Improved health and social care, delivering future-proofed jobs and growth, higher standards in our schools and more social housing because your postcode should never determine your prospects, improving transport and keeping people in touch. New trains, a new bus bill, better roads.”

Nobody could disagree with those objectives. Nobody casting a more critical eye over them could help but wonder why it’s taken 25 years for the penny to drop.

The First Minister’s attempt to create some pithy soundbites was undermined by how she introduced them: “They offer soundbites – and we deliver sound policies. They sow division – we build unity. They promise walls – we build bridges. They complain – while we campaign.

And while they look backwards – we move forwards.”

It was a bit like Tony Blair. “Now is not the time for soundbites, but the hand of history is on out shoulders.”

STEVENS STANDS OUT

Jo Stevens, the Secretary of State for Wales, hit an altogether stronger note.

She announced £13 million to provide support for workers, families and businesses affected by the closure of the Tata Steel blast furnaces in her first address to the Welsh Labour Conference since Labour won a landslide General Election result in July.

The investment from the Transition Board, which will provide non-repayable grants of up to £10,000 to help workers and their families set up their own businesses, is part of a wider £26.5 million package committed by the UK Labour Government since taking office, and part of an £80 million commitment to fully fund the Transition Board and to support workers that came out of Labour’s Autumn Budget.

Jo Stevens developed her theme by attacking the Conservatives’ failure to bankroll a scheme they’d announced: “In October last year, the Tories had promised £80m to support workers and businesses in Port Talbot. Nine months later, they hadn’t delivered a single penny.

 “Now we know why – the £80 million was never there. It was one of a long list of unfunded spending commitments.

 “Today, I am announcing a £13 million fund to support existing and new businesses in Port Talbot and across our steel communities. And Labour’s first Budget confirmed that £80 million in full.”

The conference loved it all. But apart from Jo Stevens repeating an attack line that Labour had already developed in the preceding weeks, it was rather thin gruel, albeit enthusiastically delivered.

THE PARTY OF GOVERNMENT

Wales’s Transport Minister, Ken Skates, announced a “new” Bus Bill to re-regulate bus services and integrate train and bus timetables, tickets and routes. The inverted commas around the word “new” are advisable as this is a Bill that’s long been out for consultation. Councils have already outlined their responses to it, and it was one of his predecessor’s major pieces of legislation. When the Bill is finally published next March, it will be only four years since the commitment appeared in the 2021 Manifesto and seven years since the Welsh Government announced its intention to legislate.

Having announced £22m to cut waiting times just over a fortnight before the Labour conference, Health Minister Jeremy Miles announced a further £28m, which included £3m to shorten waiting lists for children awaiting neurodevelopmental assessments.

Remarkably, the entirely nonpartisan Welsh Government press office was on hand to announce these initiatives in almost identical terms to the Labour Party’s press releases on the same subjects and as they were made to the Party faithful. There is a separation between the party political activities of Welsh Government ministers on the one hand and Welsh Government actions on the other. While the lines have blurred over recent years, it is not the business of Welsh Government employees to assist Ministers with campaigning activities, such as a conference speech.

Labour is the Party of government in Wales, but it is not the Party of the Welsh Government.

LABOUR’S WELSH PROBLEM

In Westminster opposition, Labour made many of the right noises about doing right by Wales. Chief among those noises was sending Wales “£4bn” as a consequential payment for the HS2 project that the Conservatives (boo!) had denied Wales. There were other promises, too:

• Rejigging the basis upon which Westminster allocated money to the devolved governments.
• Making sure the Welsh Government regained control over the funding that had replaced the European Union’s money.
• Devolving more powers to the Welsh Government.

Big promises, all of them.

In the thrill of victory and delivering and taking the credit for projects launched by the Conservatives (boo!), those promises have vanished into talking shops and the language of “hard choices”.

And so, to make up for the fact that the Westminster Labour Government has left its Cardiff comrades in the same position as the Emperor wearing his new clothes, Labour’s conference speeches were long on triumphalism and mood without any sign of much that was new. 

Turnout in Wales on July 4 was down over 10.5%, and Labour’s share of the vote fell by 3.9%. Labour’s share of the General Election vote in Wales has only twice slipped below July’s level (in 2010 and 2015). Even in 2019, Labour polled better. In 1997, when Tony Blair’s New Labour swept the Conservatives from power almost as dramatically as in July, Labour won almost 55% of the vote in Wales.

Labour’s polling for the next Senedd election is even more dire than July’s outcome, with some polls showing support hovering around 30%. In 2026, the low turnout and divided vote that skewed General Election outcomes in Welsh constituencies could cause a very different outcome. Turnout in Welsh elections is often pitiful, and the new voting system could erode Labour’s dependable “red rosette on a donkey” vote.

Between now and May 2026, Labour must not only say what it wants to deliver but also get on with it. The lack of urgency about its previous Manifesto commitments and the ongoing omnishambles that is the Welsh NHS leave Eluned Morgan little room for manoeuvre.

In opposition, parties abuse the government of the day. In government, parties abuse the preceding government. In Wales, where Labour’s been in power for twenty-five years, the problem goes without saying.