News
Welsh Labour dominance under threat in closest Senedd race in 25 years
New electoral system and rising support for Reform could reshape political landscape in 2026
WELSH Labour’s long-standing dominance in Cardiff Bay could come to an end at the 2026 Senedd Election, with the latest projections showing the party only narrowly ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Plaid Cymru in what is set to be the tightest race in a generation.
Cavendish, one of the UK’s leading public affairs and communications consultancies, today (Thursday, April 10) launched its new Senedd Seat Projector, revealing dramatic shifts in public support and the likelihood of a multi-party government.
Using polling data and modelling based on the new proportional voting system and enlarged Senedd, Cavendish forecasts that Labour may secure 28 seats—just one ahead of Reform on 27, with Plaid Cymru close behind on 24.
Under the reformed system, 96 members will be elected across 16 new constituencies, with each electing six MSs. The changes are expected to significantly alter how campaigns are run and how votes are converted into seats.
Coalition government likely
Cathy Owens, Director at Cavendish, said a coalition government appears almost certain.
“Our Senedd Seat Projector sets out a stark reality for Welsh Labour,” she said. “It shows a coalition between Labour and Plaid Cymru as the most likely outcome, potentially with joint First Ministers.
“Otherwise, a combination of the Conservatives, Reform, and Plaid Cymru would be needed to secure a majority—a scenario that seems politically unlikely.”
Cavendish says the data reflects a “seismic” shift in Welsh politics. For the past 25 years, Welsh Labour has polled consistently between 35% and 40%. But over the last year, support for Labour has dropped significantly, with Reform now regularly polling at similar levels.
The polling picture
Cavendish compiled projections from leading pollsters over the last 12 months. While Labour consistently leads, the margin is often razor-thin. A sample of projections includes:
Survation (April 2025):
- Labour: 28 seats (27%)
- Reform: 27 seats (24%)
- Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (24%)
- Conservatives: 15 seats (15%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (5%)
- Greens: 0
Beaufort (December 2024):
- Labour: 28 seats (27%)
- Reform: 28 seats (24%)
- Plaid Cymru: 20 seats (18%)
- Conservatives: 17 seats (17%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (6%)
- Greens: 1
YouGov (December 2024):
- Labour: 25 seats (23%)
- Reform: 25 seats (24%)
- Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (24%)
- Conservatives: 19 seats (19%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (5%)
- Greens: 1
Redfield & Wilton (June 2024):
- Labour: 38 seats (36%)
- Reform: 11 seats (11%)
- Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (22%)
- Conservatives: 20 seats (18%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (6%)
- Greens: 1
The variation highlights the volatility of Welsh politics under the new system, with small shifts in support having a significant impact on seat distribution.
Campaigns will need to adapt
Cathy Owens added: “The new system rewards efficient, geographically spread support. Parties will need to rethink their campaign strategies completely.
“There will be six types of marginal seats, and organisations that want to influence manifesto pledges will need to engage far more strategically than before.”
Cavendish says the Senedd Seat Projector offers a unique insight into the upcoming election and will be an essential tool for journalists, analysts, campaigners and the public.
The tool is now live on the Cavendish website, along with a full report on Senedd reform.
Cavendish will also host a LinkedIn Live event featuring Cathy Owens and fellow director Nerys Evans, in conversation with journalist Will Hayward, to discuss the findings and what they mean for the future of Welsh politics.
Crime
Swansea man dies weeks after release from troubled HMP Parc: Investigation launched
A SWANSEA man has died just weeks after being released from HMP Parc, the Bridgend prison now at the centre of a national crisis over inmate deaths and post-release failures.
Darren Thomas, aged 52, died on 13 November 2025 — less than a month after leaving custody. The Prisons and Probation Ombudsman (PPO) has confirmed an independent investigation into his death, which is currently listed as “in progress”.
Born on 9 April 1973, Mr Thomas had been under post-release supervision following a period at HMP/YOI Parc, the G4S-run prison that recorded seventeen deaths in custody in 2024 — the highest in the UK.
His last known legal appearance was at Swansea Crown Court in October 2024, where he stood trial accused of making a threatening phone call and two counts of criminal damage. During the hearing, reported by The Pembrokeshire Herald at the time, the court heard he made threats during a heated call on 5 October 2023.
Mr Thomas denied the allegations but was found guilty on all counts. He was sentenced to a custodial term, which led to his imprisonment at HMP Parc.
Parc: A prison in breakdown
HMP Parc has faced sustained criticism throughout 2024 and 2025. A damning unannounced inspection in January found:
- Severe self-harm incidents up 190%
- Violence against staff up 109%
- Synthetic drugs “easily accessible” across wings
- Overcrowding at 108% capacity
In the first three months of 2024 alone, ten men died at Parc — part of a wider cluster of twenty PPO-investigated deaths since 2022. Six occurred within three weeks, all linked to synthetic drug use.
Leaked staff messages in 2025 exposed a culture of indifference, including one officer writing: “Let’s push him to go tomorrow so we can drop him.”
Six G4S employees have been arrested since 2023 in connection with alleged assaults and misconduct.
The danger after release
Deaths shortly after release from custody are a growing national concern. Ministry of Justice data shows 620 people died while under community supervision in 2024–2025, with 62 deaths occurring within 14 days of release.
Short sentences — common at Parc — leave little time for effective rehabilitation or release planning. Homelessness, loss of drug tolerance and untreated mental-health conditions create a high-risk environment for those newly released.
The PPO investigates all such deaths to determine whether prisons or probation failed in their duties. Reports often take 6–12 months and can lead to recommendations.
A system at breaking point
The crisis at Parc reflects wider failures across UK prisons and probation. A July 2025 House of Lords report described the service as “not fit for purpose”. More than 500 people die in custody annually, with campaigners warning that private prisons such as Parc prioritise cost-cutting over care.
The PPO investigation into the death of Darren Thomas continues.
Crime
Woman stabbed partner in Haverfordwest before handing herself in
A WOMAN who stabbed her partner during a drug-fuelled episode walked straight into Haverfordwest Police Station and told officers what she had done, Swansea Crown Court has heard.
Amy Woolston, 22, of Dartmouth Street in Milford Haven, arrived at the station at around 8:00pm on June 13 and said: “I stabbed my ex-partner earlier… he’s alright and he let me walk off,” prosecutor Tom Scapens told the court.
The pair had taken acid together earlier in the day, and Woolston claimed she believed she could feel “stab marks in her back” before the incident.
Police find victim with four wounds
Officers went to the victim’s home to check on him. He was not there at first, but returned shortly afterwards. He appeared sober and told police: “Just a couple of things,” before pointing to injuries on his back.
He had three stab or puncture wounds to his back and another to his bicep.
The victim said that when he arrived home from the shop, Woolston was acting “a bit shifty”. After asking if she was alright, she grabbed something from the windowsill — described as either a knife or a shard of glass — and stabbed him.
He told officers he had “had worse from her before”, did not support a prosecution, and refused to go to hospital.
Defendant has long history of violence
Woolston pleaded guilty to unlawful wounding. The court heard she had amassed 20 previous convictions from 10 court appearances, including assaults, battery, and offences against emergency workers.
Defending, Dyfed Thomas said Woolston had longstanding mental health problems and had been off medication prescribed for paranoid schizophrenia at the time.
“She’s had a difficult upbringing,” he added, saying she was remorseful and now compliant with treatment.
Woolston was jailed for 12 months, but the court heard she has already served the equivalent time on remand and will be released imminently on a 12-month licence.
News
BBC apologises to Herald’s editor for inaccurate story
THE BBC has issued a formal apology and amended a six-year-old article written by BBC Wales Business Correspondent Huw Thomas after its Executive Complaints Unit ruled that the original headline and wording gave an “incorrect impression” that Herald editor Tom Sinclair was personally liable for tens of thousands of pounds in debt.

The 2019 report, originally headlined “Herald newspaper editor Tom Sinclair has £70,000 debts”, has now been changed.
The ECU found: “The wording of the article and its headline could have led readers to form the incorrect impression that the debt was Mr Sinclair’s personal responsibility… In that respect the article failed to meet the BBC’s standards of due accuracy.”
Mr Sinclair said: “I’m grateful to the ECU for the apology and for correcting the personal-liability impression that caused real harm for six years. However, the article still links the debts to ‘the group which publishes The Herald’ when in fact they related to printing companies that were dissolved two years before the Herald was founded in 2013. I have asked the BBC to add that final clarification so the record is completely accurate.”
A formal apology and correction of this kind from the BBC is extremely rare, especially for a story more than six years old.
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