News
Plaid and Reform neck and neck as polls close in Caerphilly by-election
Historic valleys seat could fall after more than a century of Labour dominance
POLLS have closed in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, with sources from both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK suggesting the result could go down to the wire.
The by-election was triggered by the sudden death of Labour MS Hefin David in August. He was first elected in 2016 and was well-known in Cardiff Bay for his outspoken contributions and his work as one of the Senedd’s commissioners.
Counting began on Thursday night at Caerphilly Leisure Centre, where officials confirmed that turnout figures would be announced before midnight.
Plaid and Reform confident
Party figures from both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK told The Herald they believe the race is “too close to call”, with one hinting that a recount could be possible if margins prove tight.
Plaid’s candidate Lindsay Whittle, a former Caerphilly council leader, has been campaigning heavily on local services and cost-of-living pressures, while Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell has focused on immigration and opposition to Cardiff Bay’s 20 mph speed limit policy.
Both parties brought in their national leaders for final rallies this week — Rhun ap Iorwerth for Plaid and Nigel Faragefor Reform UK — underlining the national significance of the vote.
Labour faces uphill struggle
Labour’s candidate Richard Tunnicliffe thanked voters for their support, saying the campaign had been “tough for a variety of reasons.” Welsh Labour insiders privately admit the party expects to finish third, a dramatic reversal in a constituency it has dominated since the early twentieth century.
One Labour source described the contest as “a defeat for Starmerism, not for Eluned Morgan,” arguing that the First Minister remains personally popular on the doorstep despite frustration with the UK party leadership.
Wider implications
A loss in Caerphilly would leave Welsh Labour with 29 of the Senedd’s 60 seats, forcing it to rely on at least two opposition members to pass future budgets.
Politically, the result will be viewed as a key test of the mood across the South Wales Valleys ahead of the 2026 Senedd Election, with polls showing Plaid and Reform gaining ground among voters disillusioned with both main parties.
The count will continue into the early hours of Friday morning, with a result expected around 2:00 am.
Crime
Man spared jail after baseball bat incident in Milford Haven
Judge says offence was so serious only a prison sentence was justified
A 44-YEAR-OLD has been given a suspended prison sentence after admitting carrying a baseball bat in a public place during an incident in Milford Haven.
Ian Parker, of Cwrt Garreg, Cefn Glas, Bridgend, appeared for sentence at Haverfordwest Magistrates’ Court on Tuesday (Dec 9).
The court heard that on Tuesday (Oct 29), Parker travelled to Prioryville, Milford Haven, where he was found in possession of an offensive weapon — a baseball bat — without lawful authority or reasonable excuse.
Earlier hearings were told that Parker believed his son was at risk and had travelled from Bridgend to Milford Haven. During the incident, another man was struck with the bat before Parker left the scene. Parker later admitted the offence and entered a guilty plea on November 18, with sentencing adjourned for a pre-sentence report.
Passing sentence, District Judge M Layton said the offence was so serious that only a custodial sentence could be justified.
Parker was sentenced to 36 weeks’ imprisonment, but the sentence was suspended for 24 months after the court accepted there was a realistic prospect of rehabilitation.
He will be subject to 24 months of supervision and must complete 200 hours of unpaid work within 12 months. The court also imposed a rehabilitation activity requirement of up to 25 days, requiring Parker to attend appointments and take part in activities as directed by probation services.
The baseball bat was ordered to be forfeited and destroyed under the Prevention of Crime Act 1953.
Parker was also ordered to pay £85 in prosecution costs and a £187 surcharge, to be paid in full within 28 days.
The judge warned that any breach of the suspended sentence order could result in the prison term being activated.
Business
Independent brewers join call for business rates relief as pub closures feared
INDEPENDENT brewers have joined growing calls for urgent, pub-specific relief on Business Rates amid fears that community pubs across west Wales and beyond could be forced to close.
The Society of Independent Brewers and Associates (SIBA) has warned that changes announced in the Autumn Budget will see pub costs rise sharply over the next three years, with the average pub facing a 76% increase in Business Rates. By comparison, large warehouse-style premises operated by online and technology giants are expected to see increases of around 16%.
The issue will be discussed at a meeting taking place on Monday in Saundersfoot, where local publicans, small brewers and business representatives are due to come together to examine the impact of rising Business Rates and escalating operating costs. The meeting is expected to focus on the future sustainability of community pubs, particularly in coastal and rural areas where they often act as vital social hubs as well as key local employers.
Independent breweries are particularly exposed, SIBA says, as the vast majority of their beer is sold through local community pubs. Many small breweries also operate their own pubs or taprooms, meaning they are hit twice by rising rates. Some independent brewers have reported rateable value increases of up to 300%, creating new costs they say will be extremely difficult to absorb.
New industry research published on Thursday (Dec 12) suggests that introducing a pub-specific Business Rates relief of 30% from April 1, 2026 could protect around 15,000 jobs currently under threat in the pubs sector and help prevent widespread closures.
The call for action follows an open letter sent last week by SIBA’s board, expressing deep concern at the impact of the Budget’s Business Rates decisions on the hospitality sector.
Andy Slee, Chief Executive of SIBA, said: “The last orders bell is ringing very loudly in our community pubs after the shock changes to Business Rates in the Budget.
“Publicans and brewers feel badly let down by a system that still isn’t fairly addressing the imbalance between big global tech companies and small business owners.
“We were promised proper reform of Business Rates in the Labour manifesto last year and a rebalancing of the tax regime, but this has not been delivered. Pubs therefore need urgent help to address the planned increase in costs through a pub-specific relief, followed by full and meaningful reform.”
Those attending Monday’s meeting in Saundersfoot are expected to consider how local voices can feed into the national debate and press for urgent action to protect community pubs across Pembrokeshire.

Community
Annual charity carol service raises funds for good causes
MID and West Wales Fire and Rescue Service held its annual Charity Carol Service on Wednesday (Dec 10) at Ebeneser Baptist Chapel in Crymych.
The event brought together members of the local community alongside Fire Service staff for an evening of carols, readings and festive refreshments, marking the Christmas season in a warm and inclusive atmosphere.
This year’s service supported two important charities — the Fire Fighters Charity and Cancer Research Wales — with all proceeds going directly towards their ongoing work.
A total of £597 was raised on the night, which will be shared equally between the two charities.
The Service thanked the congregation at Ebeneser Baptist Chapel for hosting the event, as well as everyone who gave their time, support and generosity to make the evening such a success.

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