Cardiff University experts say misinformation, coalition arithmetic, public finances and devolved powers are among the key issues facing Wales

CARDIFF UNIVERSITY academics have warned that clear reporting and proper scrutiny will be vital as Wales prepares for one of the most significant Senedd elections since devolution.

The intervention comes ahead of polling day on Thursday (May 7), when voters will elect a larger 96-member Senedd under a new voting system.

Professor Stephen Cushion, from Cardiff University’s School of Journalism, Media and Culture, said UK-wide or English-produced news remained the main source of political information for many people in Wales.

He warned that reporting on devolved issues such as health, education and law and order did not always explain clearly which government was responsible.

Professor Cushion said this could leave people confused about what applies to Wales, particularly when audiences increasingly see political headlines on social media without reading the full context.

Dr Maxwell Modell, a research associate at the same school, said some political news items presented parties arguing with each other without enough independent assessment of their claims.

He said broadcasters sometimes set out several party positions side by side, leaving viewers to make sense of them without journalistic scrutiny.

Dr Keighley Perkins said turnout could be higher than at any point since devolution began, given the possibility of political change.

She said coverage should focus less on perceived disengagement and more on the issues facing the next Welsh Government and scrutiny of party policy positions.

Misinformation warning

Dr Bethan Davies, based in Cardiff University’s Security, Crime and Intelligence Innovation Institute, warned that there was significant scope for misinformation and disinformation to spread during the campaign, particularly with the rise of AI-generated content.

She said inauthentic accounts sometimes used the logos of reliable news outlets on videos to make audiences believe they were genuine.

Professor Martin Innes, co-director of the same institute, said foreign interests seeking to influence or interfere in politics remained a persistent problem.

He said there should be clear ministerial and senior official accountability for combating foreign online political interference, with resources matching the scale of the challenge.

Economy and public finances

Professor Melanie Jones, of Cardiff Business School, said the future performance of the Welsh economy should be a key focus for the next Welsh Government.

She said improving living standards depended on addressing Wales’ productivity gap with the rest of the UK, which would require long-term commitment and investment in people and infrastructure.

Professor Robert Huggins, of the School of Geography and Planning, said Cardiff was developing as a hub for creative and high-tech industries, but regeneration was less obvious in the South Wales Valleys.

He said the next Welsh Government would have “much work to do” to improve prospects for people living in those areas.

Guto Ifan, from the Wales Fiscal Analysis programme, said difficult choices over spending and taxation were likely after the election.

He warned that if the UK Government sticks to its current spending plans, growing NHS spending alongside manifesto commitments on childcare, education, transport, social care and taxation would require significant cuts to some public services or tax rises.

He said manifestos were largely silent on how those trade-offs would be managed.

Welsh identity and coalition arithmetic

Professor Richard Wyn Jones, of the Wales Governance Centre, said Wales was becoming “less British”, with younger voters increasingly identifying as Welsh only or moving away from national identity altogether.

He said those who felt Welsh but not British tended to be more left wing and socially liberal than those who felt both Welsh and British, which he said was good news for Plaid Cymru.

Professor Laura McAllister said the expanded Senedd would need sharper scrutiny and the ability to challenge government if the increase in members was to be justified.

She said Wales also needed to avoid a “race to the bottom” in political behaviour if public trust was to be rebuilt.

Dr Jac Larner said the general polling trend showed the race to be the largest party remained between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with other parties competing for third place or below.

However, he said finishing first could matter less than it appeared.

He said whichever party led on seats would face coalition arithmetic, adding that Plaid Cymru had more credible potential partners in Labour and the Greens, while Reform had fewer options.

The Herald has carried detailed election coverage in recent weeks, including candidate interviews, graphics, explainers on the new voting system, and analysis of the Ceredigion Penfro contest.

Cardiff University said the experts were available for further comment throughout the campaign.

Labour faces historic setback as new modelling points to a hung Senedd

PLAID CYMRU and Reform UK are projected to finish level on seats in Thursday’s (May 7) Senedd election, according to a final poll published just days before voting begins.

The More in Common MRP survey suggests both parties could win 34 seats in the expanded 96-member Senedd, leaving neither close to the 49 needed for an overall majority.

The findings point to a major shift in Welsh politics, with Labour — which has led every Welsh Government since devolution began — forecast to fall to third place.

The poll puts Plaid Cymru on 30% of the vote and Reform UK on 27%. Labour is projected to win 14 seats, with the Conservatives on nine and the Greens on five. The Liberal Democrats are not forecast to win any seats.

If the figures are borne out, Wales would be left with a hung Senedd and no simple route to forming a government.

A Plaid Cymru–Labour deal would reach 48 seats, one short of a majority. That could leave party leaders facing talks over a minority administration, a confidence-and-supply agreement, or a broader arrangement involving the Greens.

Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “With less than a week to go, the race has tightened.

“As we saw ahead of the Caerphilly by-election, Labour is being squeezed in the final days as voters rally behind Plaid Cymru as the progressive alternative to Reform.

“After nearly three decades leading the Senedd, Labour could fail to top the poll in any constituency and be pushed into third place.

“For Reform, this would represent an extraordinary breakthrough — going from barely contesting the last Senedd election to being in contention for the highest number of seats.

“But even Rhun ap Iorwerth will not be celebrating yet — the outcome is likely to require complex coalition or confidence-and-supply negotiations.”

The survey was based on responses from 2,159 people across Wales between March and April.

The election is being fought under a new system, with 96 Members elected across 16 larger constituencies. Seats will be allocated using the d’Hondt method, meaning small changes in vote share could affect the final outcome.

More in Common said around one in six seats could be decided by margins of less than 2.5%, with some final seats in constituencies potentially turning on extremely small differences.

The modelling also suggests First Minister Eluned Morgan could be under pressure in the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency, where Labour is projected to finish fourth.

With polling day now close, the final result remains highly uncertain — but the survey suggests Wales could be heading for a Senedd where no party is able to govern alone.

Cross-party backlash as proposal to target Green-voting areas sparks outrage

REFORM UK has been accused of seeking to “punish voters” after unveiling a controversial plan to site migrant detention centres in areas that do not support the party.

The proposal forms part of the party’s pledge to deport “all illegal migrants” in Britain, which would require holding tens of thousands of people at a time in large-scale detention facilities.

In a statement, Reform said the centres would not be located in constituencies where it holds parliamentary seats or controls local councils. Instead, it would prioritise areas represented by the Green Party of England and Wales.

The party said: “If you vote in a Reform council or Reform MP, we guarantee you won’t have a detention centre near you. If you vote Green, there’s a good chance you will.”

Reform argued the approach was an “exercise in democratic consent”, claiming communities that back stricter immigration policies should not bear the burden of enforcement measures.

Political storm

The announcement triggered swift condemnation from across the political spectrum.

Mothin Ali said the policy was “abhorrent” and accused Reform of making inflammatory statements to distract from its wider agenda.

Labour chair Anna Turley described the proposal as “grotesque”, warning it undermined fundamental democratic principles by targeting communities based on how they vote.

Senior figures within the Conservative Party also voiced concern. Leader Kemi Badenoch shared criticism from former minister Simon Clarke, who warned the policy could amount to an abuse of power.

Clarke said deliberately siting facilities in areas based on voting patterns would likely face legal challenge and could be struck down in court, potentially costing taxpayers millions.

Legal and practical doubts

Critics have also raised questions over whether the plan could be implemented in practice.

Large detention centres would require suitable locations, infrastructure, and planning approval, as well as compliance with domestic law and international obligations.

Legal experts have suggested that targeting specific areas for political reasons could be open to challenge, particularly if it is seen as discriminatory or lacking a rational planning basis.

Reform’s defence

Reform has defended the proposal, insisting it is about fairness and accountability.

The party argues that voters who support stricter immigration controls should not be forced to host detention facilities, while those backing more liberal approaches should accept the consequences of their stance.

The policy was also framed as a direct challenge to Zack Polanski, with Reform suggesting Green politicians should “embrace” the idea.

Election backdrop

The row comes just days before local elections, with critics accusing Reform of deliberately provoking controversy to dominate the political agenda.

While the policy may appeal to the party’s core supporters, opponents say it risks alienating mainstream voters by appearing divisive and vindictive.