By Owen Venables

WALES is facing a new political reality after the latest Senedd election produced no overall majority, leaving parties preparing for negotiations that could shape the next Welsh Government.

Plaid Cymru emerged as the largest party following major gains across Wales, while Reform UK recorded a significant breakthrough and Labour suffered its worst Senedd result since devolution began in 1999. However, despite Plaid’s success, the party fell short of the numbers needed to govern alone.

Under the Senedd’s expanded system, 49 seats are required for an outright majority in the 96-seat chamber. No party reached that threshold, meaning Wales has entered a hung Senedd.

This is the first time since devolution that Labour has failed to emerge as the largest party in the Welsh Parliament. The scale of Labour’s losses was further underlined by the defeat of First Minister Eluned Morgan, who lost her own Senedd seat before announcing she would step down as leader of Welsh Labour.

Since the creation of the Senedd in 1999, Labour has either governed alone or led every Welsh administration, sometimes through coalition agreements or cooperation deals with smaller parties.

Attention will now turn to what happens behind closed doors over the coming days.

The most likely immediate step is talks between parties to determine whether a formal coalition government can be formed. Plaid Cymru, as the largest party, will almost certainly have the first opportunity to attempt to form a government, with party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth expected to begin discussions with other parties and independents.

One possible outcome is a coalition agreement involving smaller progressive parties such as the Greens or Liberal Democrats. Another possibility is a confidence-and-supply arrangement, where smaller parties agree to support a government on key votes, such as budgets and confidence motions, without formally entering government themselves.

Labour’s reduced numbers may still leave the party influential despite its heavy losses. In previous Senedd terms, Labour has governed through cooperation agreements, including its 2021 deal with Plaid Cymru. Some political figures may favour cross-party cooperation again in order to provide stability and prevent repeated deadlock votes in the chamber.

Reform UK’s strong performance also changes the political arithmetic significantly. Although the party is unlikely to be part of any governing coalition, its rise means it could become a powerful opposition force within the Senedd. Reform’s gains in former Labour strongholds reflect wider political changes already seen across parts of England, where support for traditional parties has weakened.

If no stable agreement can be reached, the Senedd would continue holding votes to elect a First Minister. Under Welsh parliamentary rules, if no First Minister is successfully appointed within 28 days, another election could potentially be triggered.

The coming days are therefore likely to be dominated by negotiations, compromise and political pressure as parties attempt to determine who can command enough support to govern.

While the election has reshaped Welsh politics, the biggest takeaway is that the era of automatic Labour dominance in Wales has come to an end, and the Senedd is now entering one of the most politically unpredictable periods in its history.

ELUNED MORGAN LOSES SEAT AS OLD CERTAINTIES ARE SWEPT AWAY

THE VOTERS of Wales have delivered one of the most dramatic results in the history of devolution, sweeping Labour from power and handing Plaid Cymru a clear path towards forming the next Welsh Government.

After more than a quarter of a century of Labour dominance in Cardiff Bay, the party has been reduced to just nine seats in the Senedd, with its support collapsing across its traditional heartlands.

The final seat tally was:

• Plaid Cymru – 43
• Reform UK – 34
• Labour – 9
• Conservatives – 7
• Greens – 2
• Liberal Democrats – 1

Plaid Cymru is now by far the largest party in the new Welsh Parliament and is expected to seek to form the next government, either as a minority administration or with support from other parties.

Reform UK, which had been tipped to make major gains, finished in second place with 34 seats, an extraordinary breakthrough which places it ahead of Labour and the Conservatives.

But while Reform’s rise is one of the major stories of the election, the biggest political earthquake is Labour’s near-total collapse.

The party, which has led every Welsh Government since devolution began, was gutted in the Valleys, south-east Wales, rural Wales and key urban centres.

First Minister Eluned Morgan’s defeat in Ceredigion Penfro will dominate the headlines. Her loss marks a stunning personal and political blow, with Labour failing to win a seat in the new six-member constituency.

In the same constituency, Conservative Paul Davies was returned, while fellow Conservative Samuel Kurtz narrowly missed out. Kurtz later issued an emotional statement saying it had been an “absolute honour and pleasure” to serve as a Member of the Senedd.

He wrote: “That’s the way the cookie crumbles, folks.

“What an absolute honour and pleasure it has been to serve as your Member of the Senedd.”

He said he was pleased Paul Davies had been re-elected, adding: “I owe him so much, and I wouldn’t have been able to do this job without his support and guidance.”

Kurtz thanked his family, staff and supporters, saying he had loved “every single second” of the job.

He added: “So for now, it’s so long. But I don’t think it’s farewell.”

Labour’s humiliation was not confined to west Wales.

Senior backbencher Alun Davies lost his seat after twenty years in the Welsh Parliament, while Huw Irranca-Davies, Eluned Morgan’s Deputy, clung on in sixth place in Afan Ogwr Rhondda.

Former Labour minister Sarah Murphy also only just survived in Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg.

In Carmarthenshire, Labour failed to return a single representative, with Plaid Cymru and Reform splitting the seats between them.

In Swansea Gower, Mike Hedges was the only Labour MS to survive, while Plaid took three seats and Reform claimed the remainder.

Ken Skates also clung on to the sixth seat in Flint Wrexham, where Reform and Plaid both took two seats.

The scale of Labour’s defeat was underlined by its failure to win a single seat in Caerffili and Blaenau Gwent, and by its reduction to two seats in Cardiff, where Plaid Cymru now has more MSs than it has ever had city councillors.

Labour returned just one candidate in Pontypridd and Newport, and only two in Torfaen, once regarded as a nailed-on Labour area.

Reform’s strongest gains came in the Valleys and south-east Wales, but the party also cut into Conservative support across rural, mid and north Wales.

The Conservatives finished on seven seats, a result which leaves them badly squeezed between Reform on one side and Plaid Cymru on the other.

The Greens won two seats, both in Cardiff constituencies. While the result gives the party its first real Senedd breakthrough, it falls well short of the more optimistic projections during the campaign.

Jane Dodds remains the sole Liberal Democrat in the Welsh Parliament.

Labour’s final humiliation came in Gwynedd Maldwyn, the last seat to declare, where the party finished fifth, behind Plaid Cymru, Reform, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

Plaid took four seats there, with Reform winning two.

In her concession speech, Eluned Morgan said the “wind of change” had blown across Wales.

For Labour, that wind has swept away the old certainties.

Shock result sends political shockwaves across Wales as Reform also surges in historic Senedd count

LABOUR suffered one of the worst defeats in its Welsh political history on Friday (May 8) after First Minister Eluned Morgan failed to win a seat in the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency.

The dramatic result, announced following a tense count in Aberystwyth, saw Plaid Cymru emerge as the dominant force in west Wales, while Reform UK surged into second place and Labour was left without representation.

Under the new six-member proportional voting system introduced for the 2026 Senedd election, the seats were allocated as follows:

• Plaid Cymru — three seats
• Reform UK — two seats
• Welsh Conservatives — one seat
• Labour — no seats

The elected Members of the Senedd for Ceredigion Penfro are:

• Elin Jones (Plaid Cymru)
• Kerry Ferguson (Plaid Cymru)
• Anna Nicholl (Plaid Cymru)
• Susan Claire Archibald (Reform UK)
• Paul Marr (Reform UK)
• Paul Windsor Davies (Welsh Conservatives)

The result marks a devastating blow for Labour, which has governed Wales continuously since devolution began in 1999. The party’s top candidate in the constituency was sitting First Minister Eluned Morgan, but Labour’s vote collapsed across both Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion.

Plaid Cymru topped the poll with 31,943 votes, comfortably ahead of Reform UK on 23,003.

The Conservatives secured 14,789 votes and held on to representation through former Preseli Pembrokeshire MS Paul Davies.

Labour trailed badly on just 6,495 votes.

The full vote breakdown was:

• Plaid Cymru — 31,943
• Reform UK — 23,003
• Welsh Conservatives — 14,789
• Welsh Labour — 6,495
• Wales Green Party — 6,324
• Welsh Liberal Democrats — 4,613
• Gwlad — 802
• Heritage Party — 442
• Aaron Carey (Independent) — 368
• George Alexander Chadzy (Independent) — 286
• Paul Haywood Dowson (Independent) — 88

A total of 89,402 votes were cast, with 247 rejected ballots.

Turnout was confirmed at around 57%, significantly higher than many analysts had predicted for the first election held under the new expanded Senedd system.

The result had been widely anticipated as one of the key battlegrounds of the election, with journalists from across Wales and national broadcasters gathering at the count amid growing speculation that the First Minister could lose her seat.

As counting progressed through the afternoon, it became increasingly clear Labour was heading for disaster in the constituency, with Plaid performing strongly in Ceredigion while Reform UK made major gains across Pembrokeshire.

The new Ceredigion Penfro “super constituency” combines the whole of Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion under the new 96-member Senedd system, replacing the previous Westminster-style constituencies.

The result is likely to intensify questions over Labour’s future direction in Wales and represents a major breakthrough for Reform UK in west Wales politics.

Plaid Cymru supporters celebrated loudly as the declaration was read out, while Labour activists left the hall visibly stunned.

The defeat of a sitting First Minister in her own electoral region is expected to send shockwaves through Welsh politics for days to come.