LABOUR FACES HISTORIC DEFEAT AS COUNTING CONTINUES ACROSS WALES

LABOUR’S Deputy Leader in Wales has effectively conceded the Senedd election, saying the party will “not form the next government” as counting continued across the country.

Huw Irranca-Davies, Eluned Morgan’s Deputy First Minister and Rural Affairs Minister, made the candid admission on BBC Wales on Friday (May 8), in what will be seen as one of the most dramatic moments in modern Welsh political history.

He said the result was “not the end” for Welsh Labour, but accepted that the party now faced a major period of reflection over what went wrong, why its campaign failed to cut through, and how it had lost the confidence of so many Welsh voters.

Mr Irranca-Davies also said it appeared “likely” that Eluned Morgan would not return to the Senedd as a member for the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency.

If confirmed, that result would be a devastating blow for Labour and would leave the party without its First Minister in the new Welsh Parliament.

Labour MSs are expected to meet on Saturday to discuss their changed position and decide their next steps as a group.

Mr Irranca-Davies avoided a direct answer when asked whether he would seek to lead Labour in the Senedd if Baroness Morgan loses her seat.

He is widely regarded as a possible contender for the post of Presiding Officer if Labour’s final results are as poor as early indications suggest.

Counting began on Friday morning after voters went to the polls on Thursday (May 7) in the first Senedd election held under the new electoral system.

The old arrangement of constituency MSs and regional list members has been replaced by sixteen larger “super constituencies”, each electing six members.

The system uses the d’Hondt formula, which allocates seats proportionally according to party vote totals.

Once all votes are counted, each party’s total is divided by the number of seats it has already won, plus one. The highest remaining total wins the next seat, and the calculation is repeated until all six seats are filled.

The process has drawn criticism from some voters and commentators, who say it is difficult to understand.

Former Labour minister Harriet Harman also criticised the Welsh voting system this week, describing it as overly complicated.

However, the method was first chosen by Tony Blair’s Labour Government ahead of the first Senedd election in 1999. Welsh Labour also rejected alternatives, including the Single Transferable Vote, when the new system was designed.

Critics of the reforms say the counting method itself has received too much attention, while the more serious change has been the creation of vast multi-member constituencies, which have weakened the direct link between voters and individual elected representatives.

Labour has dominated Welsh politics for more than a century.

At every General Election since 1922, Labour has been the largest party in Wales in terms of seats won. Since devolution began in 1999, it has also been the largest party in the Senedd and has led every Welsh Government.

As recently as June 2024, Labour won 27 of Wales’s 32 Westminster seats.

But that record appeared to count for little as voters went to the polls this week, with early briefings suggesting Labour had suffered serious damage in both its traditional heartlands and in West Wales.

As polls closed on Thursday night, Labour figures were already briefing broadcasters about the scale of the reverse.

One report suggested the party’s performance in the South Wales Valleys had been disastrous, while the BBC later reported that a senior Labour source had described results in West Wales as “bloody” and “challenging”.

At this stage, however, the full picture remains unclear.

It is also possible that Labour figures have deliberately played down expectations, in the hope of presenting anything short of total collapse as a better result than feared.

If the opinion polls and early indications prove accurate, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK could emerge as the largest forces in the next Welsh Parliament.

Such a result would represent a political earthquake in Wales and could bring an end to Labour’s unbroken control of devolved government.

MORE TO FOLLOW