Politics
Wins and losses since 1997 in Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire
POLLS are now open for the July 4 general election, where 15 candidates will fight for your vote in the two new seats of Mid and south Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion Preseli.
As part of constituency changes, bits of north Pembrokeshire – including St Davids and– are joining the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire constituency.
Mid and South Pembrokeshire covers Letterston, Solva and St Davids down to Hundleton and Tenby, stretching eastwards to Amroth, Narberth and Lampeter Velfrey.
Other parts of the north of the county are now in the new Ceredigion Preseli constituency; which extends up past Aberystwyth and also includes Cilgerran, Crymych, St Dogmaels, Fishguard and Llanrhian.
Candidates for Mid and South Pembrokeshire are: Hanna Andersen (Women’s Equality Party); Alistair Cameron (Welsh Liberal Democrats); Stephen Crabb (Welsh Conservative); Stuart Marchant (Reform UK); James Purchase (Green Party); Vusi Siphika (Independent); Cris Tomos (Plaid Cymru); and Henry Tufnell (Welsh Labour).
Candidates for the new Ceredigion Preseli seat are: Ben Lake for Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat Mark Williams, Welsh Labour’s Jackie Jones, Conservative Aled Thomas, Tomos Barlow for the Green Party, Karl Robert Pollard for Reform UK, and Taghrid Al-Mawed for the Workers Party of Britain.
With the boundary changes, which see a cut the number of Welsh MPs from 40 to 32, the former constituencies of Ceredigion, Preseli Pembrokeshire, and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire are now no more.
The two new seats are expecting a Plaid Cymru win for Ceredigion Preseli and a Labour win for Mid and South Pembrokeshire, according to polls.
Listed below are the ebb and flow of winners and losers for the now-defunct seats since 1997.
Ceredigion election history: 1997- Plaid Cymru win Cynog Dafis, Robert ‘Hag’ Harris 2nd for Lab; 2000 by-election Plaid win Simon Thomas, Mark Williams Liberal-Democrates 2nd; 2001 election: Simon Thomas hold, Mark Williams 2nd; 2005 – Mark Williams win, Simon Thomas 2nd; 2010 – Mark Williams hold, Penri James for Plaid 2nd; 2015 Mark Williams hold, Mike Parker for Plaid 2nd; 2017 – narrow Ben Lake win for Plaid by 104 votes, Mark Williams 2nd; 2019 – Ben Lake hold by increased majority, Amanda Jenner (Cons) 2nd, Mark Williams 3rd.
For the now defunct Preseli Pembrokeshire, parts of which are in the two new seats, election history was…. 1997 Jack Lawrence (Lab), Robert Buckland (Cons) 2nd; 2001 Jackie Lawrence, Stephen Crabb 2nd; 2005 S Crabb, Sue Heyman (Lab) 2nd; 2010 S Crabb, Mari Rees (Lab); 2015 – S Crabb, Paul Miller (Labour) 2nd; 2017 – S Crabb, Philippa Thompson (Lab) 2nd, 314 majority for SC; 2019 – S Crabb, Phillip Thompson 2nd.
The former Carmarthenshire West and South Pembrokeshire seat, parts of which are in the new Mid and south Pembrokeshire seat, election history is: 1997 Nick Ainger (Lab), Owen Williams (Cons) 2nd; 2001 Nick Ainger, Robert Wilson (Cons) 2nd; 2005 Nick Ainger, David Morris (Cons) 2nd; 2010 Simon Hart (Cons), Nick Ainger 2nd; 2015 Simon Hart, Delyth Evans (Lab) 2nd; 2017 Simon Hart, Marc Tierney (Lab) 2nd; 2019 Simon Hart, Marc Tierney 2nd.
In collated results of different polls from Britain Predicts, The Economist, electionmaps, Electoral Calculus, Focaldata, the FT, Ipsos, More in Common, Savanta, Survation, WeThink, and YouGov, Labour is expected to win the Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat for 2024 with vote percentages ranging from 33 per cent to as high as 50 per cent.
Ceredigion Preseli polls are predicting a Plaid Cymru win, ranging from a narrow 27 per cent of votes win to as much as 48 per cent.
Climate
Minister denies plan to cut livestock numbers over ‘left-wing ideological climate targets’
THE WELSH Government has no plans to force a reduction in livestock numbers to meet climate targets, the rural resilience minister has insisted.
Llyr Gruffydd said agriculture remains “central” to Wales’ rural economy following a clash in the Senedd over net-zero policies.
The minister was challenged by Reform’s Laura Anne Jones, who accused the administration of pursuing “left-wing ideological climate targets” at the expense of farmers.
Ms Jones, the shadow rural affairs minister, questioned whether the government would adopt independent recommendations to cut meat and dairy consumption.
The UK Climate Change Committee previously advised that meat consumption should drop by 25% by 2033, alongside a 27% reduction in cattle and sheep numbers by 2040 to hit net-zero goals by 2050.
Ms Jones said the UK Government had accepted the framework and called for clarity on whether Wales would follow suit.

Rejecting the claims, Mr Gruffydd said: “This government is clear that Wales needs a strong, sustainable and productive livestock sector.
“We want to see Welsh farmers producing high-quality food in a way that’s both economically and, yes, environmentally sustainable.”
The minister pointed to the upcoming Sustainable Farming Scheme as the primary vehicle to help farmers improve long-term resilience while maintaining food production standards.
He added that his long-term vision relied on boosting local production, processing, and procurement.
The row escalated when Ms Jones expressed surprise that the minister would not commit to the UK committee’s figures, citing an “obsession” with climate targets.
Responding to what he described as a “quip” about left-wing ideology, Mr Gruffydd said: “Your colleague two questions ago was asking me about heat in schools and the consequences of climate change and the need for air conditioning and improved infrastructure.
“Maybe you should talk to each other about where you stand on this, because I’m hearing very different messages coming from these sides, these benches over here.”

Labour MS, Vikki Howells reminded the Siambr of the work done by the previous Labour administration to protect nature in Wales.
Noting that the Welsh Labour government was the first in the world to formally recognise and declare a nature emergency in 2021, Ms Howells stressed the importance of policies and initiatives to help improve habitats and reverse biodiversity loss.
The Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr MS – who is also the Labour spokesperson for the environment and farming – discussed one of the last initiatives established by her party, Nature Estate Cymru.
She also referenced the Naturfa sites – places for nature recognised under a Welsh Government programme – four of which were announced at the end of the last Senedd term.
Ms Howells asked Mr Gruffydd for his assessment of the two schemes, and if he will commit to continuing them.
Admitting he is not yet “fully versed” on the two initiatives, Mr Gruffydd said he will write to Ms Howells with his reflections.
He added: “We do have an aspiration within our climate and nature action plan, which we’re working at and working on, that will hopefully meet and support some of the aspirations that those groups and herself, I’m sure, will share.”

Andrew RT Davies meanwhile told the Siambr that the Economy, Trade and Rural Affairs Committee has produced a report on governance at Hybu Cig Cymru.
The former Welsh Conservative leader noted one of it’s recommendations was that it should be “returned to the producers and actually be run by the producers and the levy payers”.
Mr Davies, who declared an interest as a levy payer himself, called for HCC to be returned to the levy payers.
He said this would promote “quality Welsh beef, lamb and pork on the world stage rather than paying solicitors and human resources advisers to deal with ludicrous accusations levelled against many individuals within that organisation”.
Mr Gruffydd confirmed he has met with the chief executive and the chair of Hybu Cig Cymru, saying they “know what [his] view is”.
He said: “I want a fully functioning, firing-on-all-cylinders Hybu Cig Cymru. I feel that under the new chief exec and the Vision 2030 strategy that’s been published recently, that they are now on a positive trajectory.
“I will be a critical friend of theirs, but I will support the work that they do, because I honestly think that they are the organisation to move us forward in this space.
“Levy payers’ voices are critical, of course they are, but we need to strike the right balance in terms of making sure that we have an organisation that is functioning, delivering.
“If we rip it up and start again, I fear we’ll do nothing but look at internal structures for time to come. I think we’re beyond the point now where we’re looking back. For me, it’s about looking forward and building Hybu Cig Cymru into what it could and should be.”
But Mr Davies accused the minister of failing to answer his question and pressed for clarification on whether he will allow levy payers to take ownership of HCC.
Mr Gruffydd responded: “Let’s not forget that the Welsh Government brings a lot to the table here as well. So, the Welsh Government has to be represented in the organisation. And I believe that they are on the right trajectory now.
“So, I don’t believe in changing the current structure. I will, of course, keep a watching brief on things as they develop.
“And I’ve spoken with NSA Cymru and others on a myriad of issues around this. But I’ve also spoken to the people running HCC, leading HCC, and they are giving me confidence that they are on the right track and I will support them.”
Education
Welsh Government under fire to spend extra £340m on ALN
WELSH Government funding choices are forcing headteachers to make “difficult decisions” about the support they can provide to vulnerable pupils, opposition leaders have warned.
During First Minister’s Questions on Tuesday July 7, interim Welsh Labour leader Ken Skates called on Plaid Cymru’s First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth to avoid “abdicating responsibility for the most vulnerable children in Wales”.
Recent extra funding for additional learning needs (ALN) in England mean £340 million is available to Wales in consequential funding.
This is not ring-fenced – meaning the Welsh Government can use the extra cash as it sees fit.
Mr Skates noted Plaid Cymru’s 2024 acknowledgment that schools are forced to make difficult decisions about the support they can provide – quoting Mr ap Iorwerth as saying: “Wales can do better than this. Under Plaid Cymru, the pupils who need support will receive it.”
Mr Skates therefore called on the First Minister to reveal why not “a single extra penny” was allocated towards ALN in the supplementary budget, which was announced last month.
Describing creating a “sustainable” ALN framework as a “priority” for his government, Mr ap Iorwerth told the Labour leader that he is as “keen” as he is to work on ALN.

However, the First Minister also acknowledged the “tight constraints” within which his government must work, noting the “hundreds of millions of pounds of overspend” that his government “inherited from the last”.
Mr Skates called for the First Minister to avoid “abdicating responsibility for the most vulnerable children in Wales”.
In response, the First Minister said: “The problems that we face in ALN have been caused by 27 years of Labour education ministers. We want to work with this current group and anybody else to make sure that we build up sustainability for the future.
“The plans that we have in the supplementary budget stick with the previous government’s spending plans, whilst making allocations in areas I know the member’s party supports.
“I hope we can make positive progress on this, because we owe it to the people who are quite right in pointing out that we have a depth of problem in ALN in Wales and in England that deserves to be resolved. But it’s not going to be resolved by a one-off payment.”
It is not the first time the First Minister has faced questions over additional ALN funding, with the Welsh Conservatives and Reform UK raising the issue in previous sessions of First Minister’s Questions.
Mr Skates’ call for extra funding has echoed that of Caerphilly Council leader Jamie Pritchard and the local authority’s Labour group.

Cllr Pritchard said: “The Labour group on Caerphilly Council are calling on the Welsh Government to allocate consequential funding from the UK Labour Government to support children and young people with additional learning needs in Wales.
“There can be no raid on much needed additional learning needs provision.”
More than 3,500 school pupils across Caerphilly County Borough have ALN.
The council’s Labour group has said its “preparing in advance” for a Welsh Government U-turn.
Cllr Carol Andrews, Caerphilly Council’s cabinet member for education, said: “All of our schools have experienced increasing pressures in supporting learners with ALN. We feel that this funding consequential has to come to schools to the direct benefit of pupils with ALN.
“In addition to the specialist resource bases already approved by cabinet, we continue to experience significant growth in demand for ALN support. Should Welsh Government make additional this funding available, we already have plans of what will be done.”

Cllr Pritchard added: “I think the Welsh Government will be forced to U-Turn, and a U-Turn is no bad thing when it is the right thing to do.
“Our job as leaders of the 22 local authorities, is to ensure the voice of those local authorities are represented to Welsh Government. We are absolutely united in calling for the consequential funding to go straight to support our most vulnerable learners”.
The Welsh Local Government Association, which represents Wales’ 22 councils, has also expressed concern that funding for ALN support is not keeping up with the demand.
It says ALN costs are rising sharply, accounting for more than a quarter of all school budget pressures.
Councils say the growing complexity of need, alongside learner transport and workforce costs, is creating unsustainable financial strain.
According to a report by ITV Wales, the Welsh Government are in talks with Labour over ALN funding as it seeks support to pass its supplementary budget.
The Senedd is set to debate and vote on the budget on Tuesday July 14.
Local Government
Conservative candidate wins seven-way battle for Pembroke Dock Market ward
A CONSERVATIVE candidate has won the seven-way battle for a Pembroke Dock county council seat made vacant following the death of veteran councillor Brian Hall.
Before he passed away in April, Councillor Brian Hall had held the Pembroke Dock Market ward seat since 1996.
Following Cllr Hall’s death, Presiding Member of Pembrokeshire County Council, Cllr Simon Hancock said: “Brian was a larger-than-life character who was passionately devoted to Pembroke Dock and his constituents. He never let an opportunity pass without mentioning and advancing the interests of his hometown. We extend sincere condolences to his family.”
Since that seat became vacant, seven hopefuls put their names forward to represent the Market ward, with an election being held on July 9, the results announced this morning, July 10.
The election for the ward, which has an electorate of 1,442 voters, saw a 28 per cent turnout.
Winner was Welsh Conservatives candidate Jamie Street with 143 votes, approximately 36 per cent of all votes cast.
Second place, with 100 votes, went to Independent candidate Claire Francis-Boswell, who can be commiserated by recently becoming a town council member for the very same ward.
Other candidates, and their share of the votes, were: Chloe Louise Richards, Plaid Cymru, 79 votes; Ryan Morgan, Reform UK, 48; Paul Haywood Dowson, Independent, but listed as a member of Restore Britain since March of this year, 11; Lee Herring, Welsh Liberal Democrats, nine; Hayley Wood, Independent, seven.
Cllr Street’s win brings the total number of Conservative Group members on the council to 12, the largest individual political party group; the council also having an Independent Group of 18 members, 15 unaffiliated members, three Plaid Cymru, two Liberal Democrats, nine Labour members, and one Reform.
Cllr Street has been contacted for a statement on what he will bring to the Market Ward and Pembrokeshire’s council.
Back in 2022, the-then Cllr Dowson, representing Pembroke Dock Central as a UKIP councillor, was barred from holding any form of public office for the next three years after being found guilty of bullying, providing fabricated evidence to the Ombudsman and of misleading the public at a case tribunal convened by the president of the adjudication panel for Wales.
Mr Dowson more recently stood as an independent candidate in this year’s Senedd elections for the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency, gaining 88 votes out of a total of 89,402 votes cast.
His 11 votes for fifth place in the Market Ward contest amounted to some 2.77 per cent of votes cast, significantly higher than the 0.0984 per cent in the recent Senedd elections.
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