Business
Why experts think Trump’s win will be blow to UK economy and your wallet
DONALD TRUMP’S return to the US presidency casts an uncertain shadow over the UK, potentially leading to economic shocks that could burden British households with higher costs, lower growth, and less job security. His policy unpredictability and “America First” doctrine spell challenges for UK businesses, while his strong-willed approach to trade and foreign policy could drive a wedge between the two countries.
TRADE TENSIONS COULD COST UK EXPORTERS
Trump’s protectionist stance has reignited concerns about tariffs, which could cut deep into the UK economy. The US is Britain’s largest export market, receiving around 25% of all UK-manufactured exports. Proposed tariffs of up to 10% on imports to the US would affect major British exporters such as Rolls Royce and BAE Systems, impacting an estimated £56 billion in trade. If enacted, such tariffs could push costs higher, threatening thousands of jobs in sectors dependent on American demand.
A STRAINED UK-US RELATIONSHIP
While Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy have made diplomatic overtures to Trump, attending dinners and working closely with Trump’s allies, challenges in the relationship remain evident. Starmer’s reserved style contrasts with Trump’s brash manner, raising questions about how compatible their leadership styles are. This uncertainty, highlighted by one diplomat’s remark that Trump “doesn’t give a stuff” about UK relations, suggests a bumpy road ahead.
Diplomats have tirelessly built relationships with Trump’s inner circle, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump’s likely national security adviser, Elbridge Colby. However, Trump’s mercurial nature, marked by unpredictable social media outbursts and contentious negotiations, may test these connections. As Lammy put it, relations with Trump are likely to be “bumpy, noisy, and transactional.”
ECONOMIC FALLOUT AND SLOWER GROWTH
The potential for UK economic slowdown under Trump’s policies is profound. Economists from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict UK growth will be halved if Trump enforces his proposed tariffs. Without tariffs, the UK could expect moderate growth of around 1.2% next year; however, this figure could drop as low as 0.4% should the trade restrictions come into force. Coupled with rising inflation, this could lead to diminished purchasing power for households already grappling with a cost-of-living crisis.
CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND JOB THREATS
Trump’s victory has already weakened the pound, with the GBP/USD exchange rate falling sharply as results came in. Investors are wary of increased tariffs and Trump’s isolationist policies, both of which could stoke currency volatility and strain the UK economy. A weakened pound also drives up the cost of imports, which affects consumers directly through higher prices for everyday goods.
The potential loss of thousands of jobs in sectors heavily reliant on US trade adds to the bleak outlook. Automotive manufacturing, for instance, could be heavily impacted by Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on imported cars. Companies like Jaguar Land Rover, whose Land Rover Defender was one of the UK’s top exports to the US, may face cutbacks if tariffs make exports uncompetitive.
UNCERTAIN INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
The UK’s global-facing stock market may also suffer. Companies in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250, which derive significant profits from international operations, could experience volatility as Trump’s policies introduce uncertainty into transatlantic trade. Such uncertainty could lead investors to shy away from the UK market, diminishing capital inflows and further affecting economic growth.
SHIFTS IN GLOBAL PRIORITIES
Beyond economic pressures, Trump’s foreign policy outlook could exacerbate the UK’s security challenges. Trump’s “America First” rhetoric and emphasis on Asia over Europe may leave European allies, including the UK, less confident about US support for initiatives like defending Ukraine. While the UK has publicly aligned with Trump’s view that Europe should shoulder more of its defense costs, there are fears that a US pivot to Asia could weaken the cohesion of NATO and reduce military backing for Europe.
Lammy has attempted to foster an understanding of Trump’s instincts, acknowledging his focus on American interests and recognition of Asia’s growing influence. However, as the UK looks toward cooperation on issues like Ukraine, this alignment may prove insufficient in securing the support needed to address shared security concerns.
BRITISH FAMILIES TO SHOULDER THE COST
For British families, the impact of a Trump presidency could hit close to home. With increased tariffs potentially driving up inflation by 3-4%, the Bank of England may feel compelled to raise interest rates by as much as 2-3% in response. For households already feeling the pinch from rising prices, this could lead to higher mortgage costs, increased borrowing rates, and a tougher job market, further squeezing living standards.
Though the UK government has prepared for Trump’s return, the effectiveness of these plans remains to be seen. As Britain braces for another unpredictable chapter with Trump at the helm, citizens may face a “bumpy, noisy, and transactional” relationship that could reshape the economy, impacting everything from job security to the prices at the supermarket.
Interconnector brings power boost and green energy potential to Wales and Ireland
A MAJOR new electricity interconnector linking Pembrokeshire and Ireland has gone live, with power now flowing between the two countries for the first time via the Greenlink project.
The 504-megawatt (MW) Greenlink Interconnector connects National Grid’s 400kV substation at Pembroke with EirGrid’s Great Island substation in County Wexford. The link spans 200km, including 160km of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cable laid beneath the Irish Sea.
The interconnector is expected to improve energy security, increase grid resilience, and support the growth of renewable energy by allowing surplus electricity to be shared between Wales and Ireland.
Greenlink is one of the first privately funded energy infrastructure projects of its kind in Europe. It is owned by Greenlink Interconnector Limited and operated by EirGrid.
At the Welsh end of the link, National Grid carried out a series of upgrades to its Pembroke substation, including the installation of a new gas-insulated switchgear bay inside the existing air-insulated facility. The hybrid solution was designed to be space- and cost-efficient, and it uses a greener insulating gas instead of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), in line with National Grid’s target to halve SF6 emissions by 2030.
James O’Reilly, CEO of Greenlink Interconnector Limited, described the go-live as a “significant milestone.”
He said: “This is one of the first privately developed and funded energy projects between the UK and Ireland. By enabling the transfer of green energy across borders, Greenlink strengthens energy security, enhances sustainability, and fosters greater connectivity with the wider European market.”
John Twomey, Director of Customer Connections at National Grid, said connecting Greenlink to the network at Pembroke allows both countries to “benefit from that boost in capacity and resilience.”
He said: “As demands on our electricity grids evolve, interconnectors provide immense value by strengthening the security of electricity supplies and improving our collective ability to exploit renewable power produced across borders.”
The converter stations at each end of the interconnector transform electricity between direct current (DC) and alternating current (AC) for use on the respective national grids.
Michael Kelly, interim Chief Operations and Asset Management Officer at EirGrid, said the project was “a vital step forward in strengthening our shared commitment to energy resilience and security.”
He added: “EirGrid is leading the transition to a low carbon future by making Ireland’s grid renewable ready. This latest connection was made possible through collaboration with our UK colleagues and the Greenlink team.”
The interconnector is now fully operational, with electricity flowing across the Irish Sea in both directions.
PEMBROKESHIRE’S popular Business Bootcamp is set to return to offer a boost to local start-ups this summer.
Following the success of last year’s event and positive feedback from participants, Pembrokeshire County Council’s Business Support Team will host a two-day Business Start-Up Bootcamp in June.
Entrepreneurs at prestart, start-up or established business stages are encouraged to register for this free workshop offering an insight into business essentials.
Experts will cover key topics including idea generation, branding, marketing, finance, and pitching.
There will also be an opportunity to network with like-minded entrepreneurs, find out more about what support is available and explore potential business connections.
Pembrokeshire County Council’s Business Development Officer for Entrepreneurship Industries Alex Evans said: “Due to popular demand and positive feedback from the previous Bootcamp we ran, we were happy to run another Bootcamp to supply the growing demand of business support in the County of Pembrokeshire.
“With a specialist organisation running the Bootcamp and guest speakers attending, this is a great opportunity for entrepreneurs to either kick start their business ideas or boost their business growth.”
The Bootcamp, funded by the UK Government Shared Prosperity Fund, will take place on June 3rd and 10th 9am to 3pm at the Bridge Innovation Centre, Pembroke Dock, SA72 6UN. Places are limited and booking is essential.
To find out more please contact Alex on Alex.Evans@pembrokeshire.gov.uk or 07584642534.
Ends
A LEADING west Wales businesswoman is preparing for an epic 414-mile cycling journey from Fishguard to London to raise funds for children and families living in poverty.
Amy Seppman, Marketing Director at JCP Solicitors and President of Swansea Bay Business Club, will set off on Thursday (April 17) on a six-day bikepacking challenge alongside her friend and fellow fundraiser, Hollie Labunsky.
The pair will complete the journey entirely unsupported, carrying all their gear as they follow the scenic but demanding National Cycle Route 4 through the Welsh countryside and into the heart of London.
The challenge forms part of Amy’s efforts to raise £40,000 for Swansea-based charity Faith in Families, which supports vulnerable children and families across the region. With more than £38,500 already raised, Amy hopes the ride will push her over the fundraising finish line – with time to spare for further events later this year.
Speaking ahead of the challenge, Amy said: “Faith in Families is an incredible local charity doing vital work in our communities. As part of my presidency at Swansea Bay Business Club, we’ve been raising funds through various events – but this one might be the toughest yet.
“We’ll be cycling for six days straight, tackling hills, country lanes, and city streets – all with our backpacks strapped to our bikes. It’s going to be gruelling, but it’s nothing compared to the daily challenges many families in our area face.
“Whether you can donate, cheer us on, or share our story – it all makes a difference.”
Amy will be joined by Hollie Labunsky, a teacher of Economics, Criminology and Business at Treorchy Comprehensive School, who shares both her passion for cycling and her commitment to the cause.
The pair’s route is as follows:
- Day 1: Fishguard to St Clears – 66 miles
- Day 2: St Clears to Llanelli – 53 miles
- Day 3: Llanelli to Caerphilly – 63 miles
- Day 4: Caerphilly to Bath – 75 miles
- Day 5: Bath to Windsor – 107 miles
- Day 6: Windsor to Greenwich – 50 miles, finishing with a ride through Central London
Cherrie Bija, CEO of Faith in Families, described the cyclists as “absolute superheroes.”
She said: “Amy and Hollie are absolute superheroes. Their journey isn’t just about miles – it’s about impact. Every pedal they push brings us closer to helping more children in crisis, more families in need, and more communities in recovery.”
Faith in Families delivers critical support to families affected by poverty, trauma and crisis. Through initiatives such as Community Cwtches, one-to-one therapy, family support, and Wales’ first Multibank – Cwtch Mawr – the charity provides essentials including clothing, hygiene products, school uniforms and warm bedding to those most in need.
To support Amy and Hollie’s Easter ride and help Faith in Families continue its vital work, donations can be made at: https://localgiving.org/fundraising/Fish-Don
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