Business
Why experts think Trump’s win will be blow to UK economy and your wallet
DONALD TRUMP’S return to the US presidency casts an uncertain shadow over the UK, potentially leading to economic shocks that could burden British households with higher costs, lower growth, and less job security. His policy unpredictability and “America First” doctrine spell challenges for UK businesses, while his strong-willed approach to trade and foreign policy could drive a wedge between the two countries.
TRADE TENSIONS COULD COST UK EXPORTERS
Trump’s protectionist stance has reignited concerns about tariffs, which could cut deep into the UK economy. The US is Britain’s largest export market, receiving around 25% of all UK-manufactured exports. Proposed tariffs of up to 10% on imports to the US would affect major British exporters such as Rolls Royce and BAE Systems, impacting an estimated £56 billion in trade. If enacted, such tariffs could push costs higher, threatening thousands of jobs in sectors dependent on American demand.
A STRAINED UK-US RELATIONSHIP
While Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy have made diplomatic overtures to Trump, attending dinners and working closely with Trump’s allies, challenges in the relationship remain evident. Starmer’s reserved style contrasts with Trump’s brash manner, raising questions about how compatible their leadership styles are. This uncertainty, highlighted by one diplomat’s remark that Trump “doesn’t give a stuff” about UK relations, suggests a bumpy road ahead.
Diplomats have tirelessly built relationships with Trump’s inner circle, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump’s likely national security adviser, Elbridge Colby. However, Trump’s mercurial nature, marked by unpredictable social media outbursts and contentious negotiations, may test these connections. As Lammy put it, relations with Trump are likely to be “bumpy, noisy, and transactional.”
ECONOMIC FALLOUT AND SLOWER GROWTH
The potential for UK economic slowdown under Trump’s policies is profound. Economists from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict UK growth will be halved if Trump enforces his proposed tariffs. Without tariffs, the UK could expect moderate growth of around 1.2% next year; however, this figure could drop as low as 0.4% should the trade restrictions come into force. Coupled with rising inflation, this could lead to diminished purchasing power for households already grappling with a cost-of-living crisis.
CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND JOB THREATS
Trump’s victory has already weakened the pound, with the GBP/USD exchange rate falling sharply as results came in. Investors are wary of increased tariffs and Trump’s isolationist policies, both of which could stoke currency volatility and strain the UK economy. A weakened pound also drives up the cost of imports, which affects consumers directly through higher prices for everyday goods.
The potential loss of thousands of jobs in sectors heavily reliant on US trade adds to the bleak outlook. Automotive manufacturing, for instance, could be heavily impacted by Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on imported cars. Companies like Jaguar Land Rover, whose Land Rover Defender was one of the UK’s top exports to the US, may face cutbacks if tariffs make exports uncompetitive.
UNCERTAIN INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
The UK’s global-facing stock market may also suffer. Companies in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250, which derive significant profits from international operations, could experience volatility as Trump’s policies introduce uncertainty into transatlantic trade. Such uncertainty could lead investors to shy away from the UK market, diminishing capital inflows and further affecting economic growth.
SHIFTS IN GLOBAL PRIORITIES
Beyond economic pressures, Trump’s foreign policy outlook could exacerbate the UK’s security challenges. Trump’s “America First” rhetoric and emphasis on Asia over Europe may leave European allies, including the UK, less confident about US support for initiatives like defending Ukraine. While the UK has publicly aligned with Trump’s view that Europe should shoulder more of its defense costs, there are fears that a US pivot to Asia could weaken the cohesion of NATO and reduce military backing for Europe.
Lammy has attempted to foster an understanding of Trump’s instincts, acknowledging his focus on American interests and recognition of Asia’s growing influence. However, as the UK looks toward cooperation on issues like Ukraine, this alignment may prove insufficient in securing the support needed to address shared security concerns.
BRITISH FAMILIES TO SHOULDER THE COST
For British families, the impact of a Trump presidency could hit close to home. With increased tariffs potentially driving up inflation by 3-4%, the Bank of England may feel compelled to raise interest rates by as much as 2-3% in response. For households already feeling the pinch from rising prices, this could lead to higher mortgage costs, increased borrowing rates, and a tougher job market, further squeezing living standards.
Though the UK government has prepared for Trump’s return, the effectiveness of these plans remains to be seen. As Britain braces for another unpredictable chapter with Trump at the helm, citizens may face a “bumpy, noisy, and transactional” relationship that could reshape the economy, impacting everything from job security to the prices at the supermarket.
Business
Senedd approves £116m transitional relief for business rates
BUSINESSES facing sharp hikes in tax bills after the 2026 revaluation will see increases phased in over two years after the Senedd backed a new transitional relief scheme.
Senedd Members unanimously approved regulations to help businesses which face significant rises in non-domestic rates bills after a revaluation taking effect in April 2026.
The Welsh Government estimates the transitional relief will support 25,000 ratepayers at a cost of £77m in 2026/27 and £39m in 2027/28. The partial relief covers 67% of the increase in the first year and 34% in the second.
Mark Drakeford, Wales’ finance secretary, stressed the £116m scheme comes on top of permanent rate reliefs which are currently worth £250m a year. He said ratepayers for two-thirds of properties will pay no bill at all or receive some level of relief.
The former First Minister told the Senedd: “In providing this transitional relief scheme, we are closely replicating the scheme of relief we provided following the 2023 revaluation – supporting all areas of the tax base in a consistent and straightforward manner.”
The Conservatives’ Sam Rowlands expressed his party’s support for the transitional relief scheme which will help ratepayers facing sharp increases after the 2026 revaluation.

He said: “We are grateful that the Welsh Government has at least brought forward a scheme that will soften the immediate impact for thousands of Welsh businesses.
“We also understand that if these regulations are not approved or supported… this relief scheme will not be in existence. Many businesses across Wales would face steep increases with no protection at all and that is certainly not an outcome we would want.”
But the shadow finance secretary warned businesses up and down Wales are worried about the increase in rates that they are liable to pay.
Advocating scrapping rates for all small businesses in Wales, Mr Rowlands said: “We’ve heard first-hand from many of those in the hospitality and leisure sector, some of whom are facing increases of over 100% in the tax rates they are expected to pay.”
Responding as the Senedd signed off on the scheme on December 16, Prof Drakeford said the Welsh Government had to wait for the UK budget to know if funding was available. As a result of the time constraints, the regulations were not subject to formal consultation.
Prof Drakeford agreed with Mr Rowlands that voting against the regulations would not improve support, only eliminate the transitional relief package before the Senedd.

Earlier in Tuesday’s Senedd proceedings, former Tory group leader Paul Davies warned Welsh businesses have already been hit with some of the highest business rates in the UK.
He said: “The latest business rates revaluation has meant that some businesses are now facing rises of several hundred per cent compared with previous assessments…
“Whilst I appreciate that a transitional relief scheme will help some businesses manage these changes, the reality is that for many businesses it’s not enough and some businesses will be forced into a position where they will have to close.”
Business
Pembrokeshire industrial jobs ‘could be at risk’ as parties clash over investment
TRADE unions have warned that hundreds of industrial jobs in Pembrokeshire could be at risk without stronger long-term support for Welsh manufacturing, as political parties set out competing approaches ahead of the Senedd elections.
TUC Cymru says its analysis suggests 939 industrial jobs in Pembrokeshire could be vulnerable if investment in clean industrial upgrades were withdrawn, warning that policies proposed by Reform UK, and to a lesser extent the Conservatives, pose the greatest risk to industrial employment.
The warning comes as the union body launched its “Save Welsh Industry – No More Site Closures!” campaign at events in Deeside and Swansea, calling on all political parties to commit to a five-point plan to protect and future-proof Welsh industry.
According to TUC Cymru, jobs at risk locally include 434 in automotive supply chains, 183 in rubber and plastics and 75 in glass manufacturing. The union body says these sectors rely on continued investment to remain competitive and avoid offshoring.
TUC Cymru said its modelling focused on industries most exposed to closure or relocation if industrial modernisation and decarbonisation are not delivered. It argues that without sustained public and private investment, Welsh manufacturing faces further decline.
A GMB member working at Valero in Pembrokeshire said: “It’s clear Nigel Farage has no clear plan. I can see this industry collapsing under his policies. We need support, not division. His way will lead to job losses across the board and the lights will go out.”
The union body stressed that all parties need to strengthen their industrial policies, but claimed Reform UK’s stated opposition to net zero-related investment would place the largest number of jobs at risk across Wales, estimating that almost 40,000 industrial jobs nationally could be affected. Conservative policies were also criticised, though the TUC said the likelihood of job losses under the Conservatives was lower.
Labour has rejected claims that Welsh industry is being neglected, pointing to recent investment announcements made at the Wales Investment Summit, where more than £16bn worth of projects were highlighted as being in the pipeline across Wales.
Ministers said the summit demonstrated growing investor confidence, with projects linked to clean energy, advanced manufacturing, ports, digital infrastructure and battery storage, and thousands of jobs expected as schemes move from planning into delivery.
Labour has argued that public investment is being used to unlock private sector funding, particularly in industrial regions, and says modernising industry is essential to keeping Welsh manufacturing competitive while protecting long-term employment.
At UK level, the party has also highlighted its National Wealth Fund and GB Energy commitments, which it says will support domestic supply chains, reduce long-term energy costs for industry and help secure both existing and future jobs.
Opposition parties and some business groups have questioned whether all announced projects will translate into permanent employment, arguing that greater clarity is needed on timescales and delivery.
Reform UK has argued that scrapping net zero policies would cut public spending and reduce costs for households and businesses, while the Conservatives have pledged to roll back climate-related targets and reduce regulation on industry.
Unions dispute those claims, warning that higher electricity prices and a lack of investment would make Welsh industry less competitive internationally.
TUC Cymru President Tom Hoyles said Welsh industry needed urgent action from all parties to survive and thrive in the 21st century, warning that policies which sought to turn back the clock could put thousands of Welsh jobs at risk.
With industrial areas including Flintshire, Neath Port Talbot and Carmarthenshire also identified as facing significant pressures, the future of Welsh manufacturing is expected to remain a key political issue in the run-up to the Senedd elections.
Business
New digital toolkit aims to future-proof rural Welsh businesses in AI search era
A NEW digital toolkit developed in Ceredigion is being hailed as a potential game-changer for small businesses in rural Wales, as artificial intelligence reshapes how customers discover local services online.
Created by Antur Cymru Enterprise, the SMART Busnes programme is giving Welsh SMEs an early foothold in Answer Engine Optimisation (AEO) – a rapidly emerging discipline focused on how businesses appear within AI-generated search responses.
As AI-driven tools increasingly replace traditional search results with instant, conversational answers, SMART Busnes – supported by the UK Shared Prosperity Fund – has launched one of the first practical AEO toolkits available in Wales.
The initiative is being led by Digital Business Advisor Lynne Rees and centres on a new insight framework known as Agentic AEO. The approach is designed to help rural and micro-businesses remain visible online as search engines and AI platforms prioritise structured, easily interpreted information over conventional keyword-based webpages.

Kevin Harrington, Project Manager for SMART Busnes, said the shift represents a fundamental change in how businesses need to think about their online presence.
“AI search is here to stay, and our Agentic AEO insight series isn’t a tweak – it’s a reset,” he said.
“It’s about helping Welsh SMEs show up wherever customers search: on Google, on social media, and increasingly within AI-generated answers. This gives rural businesses access to the kind of digital advantage that large brands often pay thousands of pounds for.”
Traditional search engine optimisation is already being overtaken by AI-led systems such as Google’s Search Generative Experience and tools like ChatGPT, which provide direct responses rather than lists of links.
For small businesses, this presents a growing risk. If online content is not structured in a way AI tools can understand, businesses may fall below the point where potential customers ever see them.
Agentic AEO focuses on improving clarity, structure and user intent across websites, social media platforms and Google Business Profiles. By presenting information in formats AI systems can easily process, businesses can improve both visibility and credibility within automated responses.
The SMART Busnes AEO Insight Series provides practical support, including step-by-step guidance on restructuring webpages, examples of effective layouts, and tailored AI prompts to help business owners produce optimised content quickly and affordably. Even modest changes – such as a website review, targeted content update or short advisory session – can influence how a business appears in search results over the coming year.

Antur Cymru chief executive Bronwen Raine said the programme was designed to help businesses adapt to long-term change.
“SMART Busnes was created to support small businesses through change, not simply to chase trends,” she said.
“The Agentic AEO insight series shows how Shared Prosperity Fund investment is driving genuine innovation, building confidence, skills and sustainability across local economies.”
With many SEO providers in Wales still focused on older techniques, SMART Busnes is positioning Ceredigion and the wider Mid and West Wales region at the forefront of AEO adoption.
By translating emerging digital theory into accessible, practical support, the programme aims to strengthen resilience among rural enterprises and ensure they remain visible, trusted and competitive in an AI-led future.
More information about SMART Busnes and the support offered by Antur Cymru Enterprise is available via the organisation’s website.
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