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Why experts think Trump’s win will be blow to UK economy and your wallet

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DONALD TRUMP’S return to the US presidency casts an uncertain shadow over the UK, potentially leading to economic shocks that could burden British households with higher costs, lower growth, and less job security. His policy unpredictability and “America First” doctrine spell challenges for UK businesses, while his strong-willed approach to trade and foreign policy could drive a wedge between the two countries.

TRADE TENSIONS COULD COST UK EXPORTERS

Trump’s protectionist stance has reignited concerns about tariffs, which could cut deep into the UK economy. The US is Britain’s largest export market, receiving around 25% of all UK-manufactured exports. Proposed tariffs of up to 10% on imports to the US would affect major British exporters such as Rolls Royce and BAE Systems, impacting an estimated £56 billion in trade. If enacted, such tariffs could push costs higher, threatening thousands of jobs in sectors dependent on American demand.

A STRAINED UK-US RELATIONSHIP

While Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy have made diplomatic overtures to Trump, attending dinners and working closely with Trump’s allies, challenges in the relationship remain evident. Starmer’s reserved style contrasts with Trump’s brash manner, raising questions about how compatible their leadership styles are. This uncertainty, highlighted by one diplomat’s remark that Trump “doesn’t give a stuff” about UK relations, suggests a bumpy road ahead.

Diplomats have tirelessly built relationships with Trump’s inner circle, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump’s likely national security adviser, Elbridge Colby. However, Trump’s mercurial nature, marked by unpredictable social media outbursts and contentious negotiations, may test these connections. As Lammy put it, relations with Trump are likely to be “bumpy, noisy, and transactional.”

ECONOMIC FALLOUT AND SLOWER GROWTH

The potential for UK economic slowdown under Trump’s policies is profound. Economists from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict UK growth will be halved if Trump enforces his proposed tariffs. Without tariffs, the UK could expect moderate growth of around 1.2% next year; however, this figure could drop as low as 0.4% should the trade restrictions come into force. Coupled with rising inflation, this could lead to diminished purchasing power for households already grappling with a cost-of-living crisis.

CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND JOB THREATS

Trump’s victory has already weakened the pound, with the GBP/USD exchange rate falling sharply as results came in. Investors are wary of increased tariffs and Trump’s isolationist policies, both of which could stoke currency volatility and strain the UK economy. A weakened pound also drives up the cost of imports, which affects consumers directly through higher prices for everyday goods.

The potential loss of thousands of jobs in sectors heavily reliant on US trade adds to the bleak outlook. Automotive manufacturing, for instance, could be heavily impacted by Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on imported cars. Companies like Jaguar Land Rover, whose Land Rover Defender was one of the UK’s top exports to the US, may face cutbacks if tariffs make exports uncompetitive.

UNCERTAIN INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT

The UK’s global-facing stock market may also suffer. Companies in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250, which derive significant profits from international operations, could experience volatility as Trump’s policies introduce uncertainty into transatlantic trade. Such uncertainty could lead investors to shy away from the UK market, diminishing capital inflows and further affecting economic growth.

SHIFTS IN GLOBAL PRIORITIES

Beyond economic pressures, Trump’s foreign policy outlook could exacerbate the UK’s security challenges. Trump’s “America First” rhetoric and emphasis on Asia over Europe may leave European allies, including the UK, less confident about US support for initiatives like defending Ukraine. While the UK has publicly aligned with Trump’s view that Europe should shoulder more of its defense costs, there are fears that a US pivot to Asia could weaken the cohesion of NATO and reduce military backing for Europe.

Lammy has attempted to foster an understanding of Trump’s instincts, acknowledging his focus on American interests and recognition of Asia’s growing influence. However, as the UK looks toward cooperation on issues like Ukraine, this alignment may prove insufficient in securing the support needed to address shared security concerns.

BRITISH FAMILIES TO SHOULDER THE COST

For British families, the impact of a Trump presidency could hit close to home. With increased tariffs potentially driving up inflation by 3-4%, the Bank of England may feel compelled to raise interest rates by as much as 2-3% in response. For households already feeling the pinch from rising prices, this could lead to higher mortgage costs, increased borrowing rates, and a tougher job market, further squeezing living standards.

Though the UK government has prepared for Trump’s return, the effectiveness of these plans remains to be seen. As Britain braces for another unpredictable chapter with Trump at the helm, citizens may face a “bumpy, noisy, and transactional” relationship that could reshape the economy, impacting everything from job security to the prices at the supermarket.

Business

Independent brewers join call for business rates relief as pub closures feared

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INDEPENDENT brewers have joined growing calls for urgent, pub-specific relief on Business Rates amid fears that community pubs across west Wales and beyond could be forced to close.

The Society of Independent Brewers and Associates (SIBA) has warned that changes announced in the Autumn Budget will see pub costs rise sharply over the next three years, with the average pub facing a 76% increase in Business Rates. By comparison, large warehouse-style premises operated by online and technology giants are expected to see increases of around 16%.

The issue will be discussed at a meeting taking place on Monday in Saundersfoot, where local publicans, small brewers and business representatives are due to come together to examine the impact of rising Business Rates and escalating operating costs. The meeting is expected to focus on the future sustainability of community pubs, particularly in coastal and rural areas where they often act as vital social hubs as well as key local employers.

Independent breweries are particularly exposed, SIBA says, as the vast majority of their beer is sold through local community pubs. Many small breweries also operate their own pubs or taprooms, meaning they are hit twice by rising rates. Some independent brewers have reported rateable value increases of up to 300%, creating new costs they say will be extremely difficult to absorb.

New industry research published on Thursday (Dec 12) suggests that introducing a pub-specific Business Rates relief of 30% from April 1, 2026 could protect around 15,000 jobs currently under threat in the pubs sector and help prevent widespread closures.

The call for action follows an open letter sent last week by SIBA’s board, expressing deep concern at the impact of the Budget’s Business Rates decisions on the hospitality sector.

Andy Slee, Chief Executive of SIBA, said: “The last orders bell is ringing very loudly in our community pubs after the shock changes to Business Rates in the Budget.

“Publicans and brewers feel badly let down by a system that still isn’t fairly addressing the imbalance between big global tech companies and small business owners.

“We were promised proper reform of Business Rates in the Labour manifesto last year and a rebalancing of the tax regime, but this has not been delivered. Pubs therefore need urgent help to address the planned increase in costs through a pub-specific relief, followed by full and meaningful reform.”

Those attending Monday’s meeting in Saundersfoot are expected to consider how local voices can feed into the national debate and press for urgent action to protect community pubs across Pembrokeshire.

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Business

Cosheston Garden Centre expansion approved by planners

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PLANS to upgrade a garden centre on the main road to Pembroke Dock have been given the go-ahead.

In an application to Pembrokeshire County Council, submitted through agent Hayston Developments & Planning Ltd, Mr and Mrs Wainwright sought permission for upgrade of a garden centre with a relocated garden centre sales area, additional parking and the creation of ornamental pond and wildlife enhancement area (partly in retrospect) at Cosheston Garden Centre, Slade Cross, Cosheston.

The application was a resubmission of a previously refused scheme, with the retrospective aspects of the works starting in late 2023.

The site has a long planning history, and started life as a market garden and turkey farm in the 1980s, and then a number of applications for new development.

A supporting statement says the previously-refused application included setting aside a significant part of the proposed new building for general retail sales as a linked farm shop and local food store/deli in addition to a coffee bar.

It was refused on the grounds of “the proposal was deemed to be contrary to retail policies and the likely impact of that use on the vitality and viability of nearby centres,” the statement said, adding: “Secondly, in noting that vehicular access was off the A 477 (T) the Welsh Government raised an objection on the grounds that insufficient transport information had been submitted in respect of traffic generation and highway safety.”

It said the new scheme seeks to address those issues; the development largely the same with the proposed new garden centre building now only proposed to accommodate a relocated garden centre display sales area rather than a new retail sales area with other goods, but retaining a small ancillary coffee bar area.

“Additional information, in the form of an independent and comprehensive Transport Statement, has now been submitted to address the objection raised by the Welsh Government in respect of highway safety,” the statement said.

It conceded: “It is acknowledged that both the creation of the ornamental pond and ‘overspill’ parking area do not have the benefit of planning permission and therefore these aspects of the application are ‘in retrospect’ and seeks their retention.”

It finished: “Essentially, this proposal seeks to upgrade existing facilities and offer to the general public. It includes the ‘relocation’ of a previously existing retail display area which had been ‘lost’ to the ornamental pond/amenity area and to provide this use within the proposed new building and moves away from the previously proposed ‘farm shop’ idea which we thought had merit.

“This revised proposal therefore involves an ‘upgrading’ rather than an ‘expansion’ of the existing garden centre use.”

An officer report recommending approval said that, while the scheme would still be in the countryside rather than within a settlement boundary, the range of goods sold would be “typical of the type of goods sold in a garden centre and which could be sold elsewhere within the garden centre itself,” adding: “Unlike the recent planning application refused permission it is not intended to sell delicatessen goods, dried food, fruit and vegetables, pet products and gifts.”

It added that a transport statement provided had been reviewed by the Welsh Government, which did not object on highway grounds subject to conditions on any decision notice relating to visibility splays and parking facilities.

The application was conditionally approved.

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Business

Tenby Poundland site could become retro gaming lounge

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TENBY’S former Poundland and Royal Playhouse cinema could become a retro computer gaming lounge, plans submitted to the national park hope.

Following a takeover by investment firm Gordon Brothers, Poundland shut 57 stores earlier this year, including Tenby.

Prior to being a Poundland, the site was the Royal Playhouse, which had its final curtain in early 2011 after running for nearly a century.

The cinema had been doing poor business after the opening of a multiplex in Carmarthen; in late 2010 the opening night of the-then latest Harry Potter blockbuster only attracted an audience of 12 people.

In an application to Pembrokeshire Coast National Park, Matthew Mileson of Newport-based MB Games Ltd, seeks permission for a ‘CONTINUE? Retro Gaming Lounge’ sign on the front of the former Gatehouse (Playhouse) Cinema, White Lion Street, most recently used as a Poundland store.

The signage plans form part of a wider scheme for a retro gaming facility at the former cinema site, which has a Grade-II-listed front facade, a supporting statement through agent Asbri Planning Ltd says.

“The subject site is located within the settlement of Tenby along White Lion St. The site was formerly the Gatehouse Cinema and currently operates as a Poundland discount store, which closed on October 18.”

It adds: “This application forms part of a wider scheme for the change of use to the former Gatehouse Cinema. Advertisement consent is sought for a non-illuminated aluminium composite folded panel that will be bolted onto the front façade of the proposed building, in replacement of the existing signage (Poundland).”

It stresses: “It is considered that the proposed advertisement will not have a detrimental impact on the quality of the environment, along with being within a proportionate scale of the building. It is considered that the proposed signage will reflect site function.

“Furthermore, due to the sympathetic scale and design of the sign itself, it is considered that the proposal will not result in any adverse visual amenity impacts.

“The proposal is reduced in sized compared to the existing Poundland advertisement. The sign will not be illuminated. Given the above it is considered that such proportionate signate in association with the proposed retro gaming lounge is acceptable and does not adversely affect visual amenity.”

An application for a retro gaming lounge by MB Games Ltd was recently given the go-ahead in Swansea.

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