Business

Why experts think Trump’s win will be blow to UK economy and your wallet

Published

1 year ago

November 6, 2024

DONALD TRUMP’S return to the US presidency casts an uncertain shadow over the UK, potentially leading to economic shocks that could burden British households with higher costs, lower growth, and less job security. His policy unpredictability and “America First” doctrine spell challenges for UK businesses, while his strong-willed approach to trade and foreign policy could drive a wedge between the two countries.

TRADE TENSIONS COULD COST UK EXPORTERS

Trump’s protectionist stance has reignited concerns about tariffs, which could cut deep into the UK economy. The US is Britain’s largest export market, receiving around 25% of all UK-manufactured exports. Proposed tariffs of up to 10% on imports to the US would affect major British exporters such as Rolls Royce and BAE Systems, impacting an estimated £56 billion in trade. If enacted, such tariffs could push costs higher, threatening thousands of jobs in sectors dependent on American demand.

A STRAINED UK-US RELATIONSHIP

While Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy have made diplomatic overtures to Trump, attending dinners and working closely with Trump’s allies, challenges in the relationship remain evident. Starmer’s reserved style contrasts with Trump’s brash manner, raising questions about how compatible their leadership styles are. This uncertainty, highlighted by one diplomat’s remark that Trump “doesn’t give a stuff” about UK relations, suggests a bumpy road ahead.

Diplomats have tirelessly built relationships with Trump’s inner circle, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump’s likely national security adviser, Elbridge Colby. However, Trump’s mercurial nature, marked by unpredictable social media outbursts and contentious negotiations, may test these connections. As Lammy put it, relations with Trump are likely to be “bumpy, noisy, and transactional.”

ECONOMIC FALLOUT AND SLOWER GROWTH

The potential for UK economic slowdown under Trump’s policies is profound. Economists from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict UK growth will be halved if Trump enforces his proposed tariffs. Without tariffs, the UK could expect moderate growth of around 1.2% next year; however, this figure could drop as low as 0.4% should the trade restrictions come into force. Coupled with rising inflation, this could lead to diminished purchasing power for households already grappling with a cost-of-living crisis.

CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND JOB THREATS

Trump’s victory has already weakened the pound, with the GBP/USD exchange rate falling sharply as results came in. Investors are wary of increased tariffs and Trump’s isolationist policies, both of which could stoke currency volatility and strain the UK economy. A weakened pound also drives up the cost of imports, which affects consumers directly through higher prices for everyday goods.

The potential loss of thousands of jobs in sectors heavily reliant on US trade adds to the bleak outlook. Automotive manufacturing, for instance, could be heavily impacted by Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on imported cars. Companies like Jaguar Land Rover, whose Land Rover Defender was one of the UK’s top exports to the US, may face cutbacks if tariffs make exports uncompetitive.

UNCERTAIN INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT

The UK’s global-facing stock market may also suffer. Companies in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250, which derive significant profits from international operations, could experience volatility as Trump’s policies introduce uncertainty into transatlantic trade. Such uncertainty could lead investors to shy away from the UK market, diminishing capital inflows and further affecting economic growth.

SHIFTS IN GLOBAL PRIORITIES

Beyond economic pressures, Trump’s foreign policy outlook could exacerbate the UK’s security challenges. Trump’s “America First” rhetoric and emphasis on Asia over Europe may leave European allies, including the UK, less confident about US support for initiatives like defending Ukraine. While the UK has publicly aligned with Trump’s view that Europe should shoulder more of its defense costs, there are fears that a US pivot to Asia could weaken the cohesion of NATO and reduce military backing for Europe.

Lammy has attempted to foster an understanding of Trump’s instincts, acknowledging his focus on American interests and recognition of Asia’s growing influence. However, as the UK looks toward cooperation on issues like Ukraine, this alignment may prove insufficient in securing the support needed to address shared security concerns.

BRITISH FAMILIES TO SHOULDER THE COST

For British families, the impact of a Trump presidency could hit close to home. With increased tariffs potentially driving up inflation by 3-4%, the Bank of England may feel compelled to raise interest rates by as much as 2-3% in response. For households already feeling the pinch from rising prices, this could lead to higher mortgage costs, increased borrowing rates, and a tougher job market, further squeezing living standards.

Though the UK government has prepared for Trump’s return, the effectiveness of these plans remains to be seen. As Britain braces for another unpredictable chapter with Trump at the helm, citizens may face a “bumpy, noisy, and transactional” relationship that could reshape the economy, impacting everything from job security to the prices at the supermarket.

Business

First wind turbine components arrive as LNG project moves ahead

Published

10 hours ago

December 4, 2025

Tom Sinclair

THE FIRST ship carrying major components for Dragon LNG’s new onshore wind turbines docked at Pembroke Port last week, marking the start of physical deliveries for the multi-million-pound renewable energy project.

The Maltese-registered general cargo vessel Peak Bergen berthed at Pembroke Dock on Wednesday 26^th November, bringing tower sections and other heavy components for the three Enercon turbines that will eventually stand on land adjacent to the existing gas terminal at Waterston.

A second vessel, the Irish-flagged Wilson Flex IV, has arrived in Pembroke Port today (Thursday) carrying the giant rotor blades.

The deliveries follow a successful trial convoy on 25 November, when police-escorted low-loader trailers carried dummy loads along the planned route from the port through Pembroke, past Waterloo roundabout and up the A477 to the Dragon LNG site.

Dragon LNG’s Community and Social Performance Officer, Lynette Round, confirmed the latest movements in emails to the Herald.

“The Peak Bergen arrived last week with the first components,” she said. “We are expecting another delivery tomorrow (Thursday) onboard the Wilson Flex IV. This will be blades and is currently showing an ETA of approximately 03:30.”

The £14.3 million project, approved by Welsh Ministers last year, will see three turbines with a combined capacity of up to 13.5 MW erected on company-owned land next to the LNG terminal. Once operational – expected in late 2026 – they will generate enough electricity to power the entire site, significantly reducing its carbon footprint.

The Weather conditions were favourable for the arrival of the Wilson Flex IV, which was tracking south of the Smalls at midnight.

The abnormal-load convoys carrying the components from the port to Waterston are expected to begin early next year, subject to final police and highway approvals.

A community benefit fund linked to the project will provide for residents in nearby Waterston, Llanstadwell and Neyland.

Further updates will be issued by Dragon LNG as the Port of Milford Haven as the delivery programme continues.

Photo: Martin Cavaney

Business

Cardiff Airport announces special Air France flights for Six Nations

Published

14 hours ago

December 4, 2025

Tom Sinclair

Direct services to Paris-Charles de Gaulle launched to cater for Welsh supporters, French fans and couples planning a Valentine’s getaway

CARDIFF AIRPORT and Air France have unveiled a series of special direct flights between Cardiff (CWL) and Paris-Charles de Gaulle (CDG) scheduled for February 2026.

Timed to coincide with two major dates — the Wales v France Six Nations clash on Saturday 15 February and Valentine’s weekend — the flights are designed to offer supporters and holidaymakers an easy link between the two capitals.

For travelling French rugby fans, the services provide a straightforward route into Wales ahead of match day at the Principality Stadium, when Cardiff will once again be transformed by the colour, noise and passion that accompanies one of the tournament’s most eagerly awaited fixtures.

For Welsh passengers, the additional flights offer a seamless escape to Paris for Valentine’s Day, as well as opportunities for short breaks and onward travel via Air France’s wider global network.

Cardiff Airport CEO Jon Bridge said: “We’re thrilled to offer direct flights to such a vibrant and exciting city for Valentine’s weekend. Cardiff Airport is expanding its reach and giving customers fantastic travel options. We’ve listened to passenger demand and are delighted to make this opportunity possible. There is more to come from Cardiff.”

Tickets are already on sale via the Air France website and through travel agents.

Special flight schedule

Paris (CDG) → Cardiff (CWL):

13 February 2026: AF4148 departs 17:00 (arrives 17:30)
14 February 2026: AF4148 departs 14:00 (arrives 14:30)
15 February 2026: AF4148 departs 08:00 (arrives 08:30)
15 February 2026: AF4150 departs 19:40 (arrives 20:10)
16 February 2026: AF4148 departs 08:00 (arrives 08:30)
16 February 2026: AF4150 departs 16:30 (arrives 17:00)

Cardiff (CWL) → Paris (CDG):

13 February 2026: AF4149 departs 18:20 (arrives 20:50)
14 February 2026: AF4149 departs 15:20 (arrives 17:50)
15 February 2026: AF4149 departs 09:20 (arrives 11:50)
15 February 2026: AF4151 departs 21:00 (arrives 23:30)
16 February 2026: AF4149 departs 09:20 (arrives 11:50)
16 February 2026: AF4151 departs 17:50 (arrives 20:20)

Business

Cwm Deri Vineyard Martletwy holiday lets plans deferred

Published

22 hours ago

December 4, 2025

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

CALLS to convert a former vineyard restaurant in rural Pembrokeshire which had been recommended for refusal has been given a breathing space by planners.

In an application recommended for refusal at the December meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council’s planning committee, Barry Cadogan sought permission for a farm diversification and expansion of an existing holiday operation through the conversion of the redundant former Cwm Deri vineyard production base and restaurant to three holiday lets at Oaklea, Martletwy.

It was recommended for refusal on the grounds of the open countryside location being contrary to planning policy and there was no evidence submitted that the application would not increase foul flows and that nutrient neutrality in the Pembrokeshire Marine SAC would be achieved within this catchment.

An officer report said that, while the scheme was suggested as a form of farm diversification, no detail had been provided in the form of a business case.

Speaking at the meeting, agent Andrew Vaughan-Harries of Hayston Developments & Planning Ltd, after the committee had enjoyed a seasonal break for mince pies, said of the recommendation for refusal: “I’m a bit grumpy over this one; the client has done everything right, he has talked with the authority and it’s not in retrospect but has had a negative report from your officers.”

He said the former Cwm Deri vineyard had been a very successful business, with a shop and a restaurant catering for ‘100 covers’ before it closed two three years ago when the original owner relocated to Carmarthenshire.

He said Mr Cadogan then bought the site, farming over 36 acres and running a small campsite of 20 spaces, but didn’t wish to run a café or a wine shop; arguing the “beautiful kitchen” and facilities would easily convert to holiday let use.

He said a “common sense approach” showed a septic tank that could cope with a restaurant of “100 covers” could cope with three holiday lets, describing the nitrates issue as “a red herring”.

He suggested a deferral for further information to be provided by the applicant, adding: “This is a big, missed opportunity if we just kick this out today, there’s a building sitting there not creating any jobs.”

On the ‘open countryside’ argument, he said that while many viewed Martletwy as “a little bit in the sticks” there was already permission for the campsite, and the restaurant, and the Bluestone holiday park and the Wild Lakes water park were roughly a mile or so away.

He said converting the former restaurant would “be an asset to bring it over to tourism,” adding: “We don’t all want to stay in Tenby or the Ty Hotel in Milford Haven.”

While Cllr Nick Neuman felt the nutrients issue could be overcome, Cllr Michael Williams warned the application was “clearly outside policy,” recommending it be refused.

A counter-proposal, by Cllr Tony Wilcox, called for a site visit before any decision was made, the application returning to a future committee; members voting seven to three in favour of that.