Business
Why experts think Trump’s win will be blow to UK economy and your wallet
DONALD TRUMP’S return to the US presidency casts an uncertain shadow over the UK, potentially leading to economic shocks that could burden British households with higher costs, lower growth, and less job security. His policy unpredictability and “America First” doctrine spell challenges for UK businesses, while his strong-willed approach to trade and foreign policy could drive a wedge between the two countries.
TRADE TENSIONS COULD COST UK EXPORTERS
Trump’s protectionist stance has reignited concerns about tariffs, which could cut deep into the UK economy. The US is Britain’s largest export market, receiving around 25% of all UK-manufactured exports. Proposed tariffs of up to 10% on imports to the US would affect major British exporters such as Rolls Royce and BAE Systems, impacting an estimated £56 billion in trade. If enacted, such tariffs could push costs higher, threatening thousands of jobs in sectors dependent on American demand.
A STRAINED UK-US RELATIONSHIP
While Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy have made diplomatic overtures to Trump, attending dinners and working closely with Trump’s allies, challenges in the relationship remain evident. Starmer’s reserved style contrasts with Trump’s brash manner, raising questions about how compatible their leadership styles are. This uncertainty, highlighted by one diplomat’s remark that Trump “doesn’t give a stuff” about UK relations, suggests a bumpy road ahead.
Diplomats have tirelessly built relationships with Trump’s inner circle, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump’s likely national security adviser, Elbridge Colby. However, Trump’s mercurial nature, marked by unpredictable social media outbursts and contentious negotiations, may test these connections. As Lammy put it, relations with Trump are likely to be “bumpy, noisy, and transactional.”
ECONOMIC FALLOUT AND SLOWER GROWTH
The potential for UK economic slowdown under Trump’s policies is profound. Economists from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict UK growth will be halved if Trump enforces his proposed tariffs. Without tariffs, the UK could expect moderate growth of around 1.2% next year; however, this figure could drop as low as 0.4% should the trade restrictions come into force. Coupled with rising inflation, this could lead to diminished purchasing power for households already grappling with a cost-of-living crisis.
CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND JOB THREATS
Trump’s victory has already weakened the pound, with the GBP/USD exchange rate falling sharply as results came in. Investors are wary of increased tariffs and Trump’s isolationist policies, both of which could stoke currency volatility and strain the UK economy. A weakened pound also drives up the cost of imports, which affects consumers directly through higher prices for everyday goods.
The potential loss of thousands of jobs in sectors heavily reliant on US trade adds to the bleak outlook. Automotive manufacturing, for instance, could be heavily impacted by Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on imported cars. Companies like Jaguar Land Rover, whose Land Rover Defender was one of the UK’s top exports to the US, may face cutbacks if tariffs make exports uncompetitive.
UNCERTAIN INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
The UK’s global-facing stock market may also suffer. Companies in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250, which derive significant profits from international operations, could experience volatility as Trump’s policies introduce uncertainty into transatlantic trade. Such uncertainty could lead investors to shy away from the UK market, diminishing capital inflows and further affecting economic growth.
SHIFTS IN GLOBAL PRIORITIES
Beyond economic pressures, Trump’s foreign policy outlook could exacerbate the UK’s security challenges. Trump’s “America First” rhetoric and emphasis on Asia over Europe may leave European allies, including the UK, less confident about US support for initiatives like defending Ukraine. While the UK has publicly aligned with Trump’s view that Europe should shoulder more of its defense costs, there are fears that a US pivot to Asia could weaken the cohesion of NATO and reduce military backing for Europe.
Lammy has attempted to foster an understanding of Trump’s instincts, acknowledging his focus on American interests and recognition of Asia’s growing influence. However, as the UK looks toward cooperation on issues like Ukraine, this alignment may prove insufficient in securing the support needed to address shared security concerns.
BRITISH FAMILIES TO SHOULDER THE COST
For British families, the impact of a Trump presidency could hit close to home. With increased tariffs potentially driving up inflation by 3-4%, the Bank of England may feel compelled to raise interest rates by as much as 2-3% in response. For households already feeling the pinch from rising prices, this could lead to higher mortgage costs, increased borrowing rates, and a tougher job market, further squeezing living standards.
Though the UK government has prepared for Trump’s return, the effectiveness of these plans remains to be seen. As Britain braces for another unpredictable chapter with Trump at the helm, citizens may face a “bumpy, noisy, and transactional” relationship that could reshape the economy, impacting everything from job security to the prices at the supermarket.
Business
Rising living costs are increasing credit card usage
The recent cost of living crisis has affected millions of people across the UK, with 46 million people reporting that their cost of living has increased since November 2021. Costs are continuously on the rise, and unfortunately many people are struggling to pay bills on time, or at all, and afford basic necessities like food, clothes, and heating.
In order to get by, more and more people are using alternative methods to make ends meet. This includes buy now, pay later schemes, relying on credit cards, or taking out personal loans. Whilst this can work for some in the short term, it has the possibility of leading to long term implications like debt and a bad credit rating.
Increased reliance on credit cards
When used responsibly, credit cards can be a great tool for spreading costs and could help with building a better credit score. However, the pressures of inflation has led to a significant growth in credit card usage, with a 0.8% rise in total credit card spending year-on-year in the UK.
More people are having to use credit cards to get by on a day-to-day basis which is leaving some people in debt. In fact, outstanding credit card debt reached £70.1 billion – an increase of 7.02% in the year to April 2024.
Once you’re in debt it can be incredibly difficult to get out of it. You need to have enough income to cover your living costs and day-to-day expenses as well as your debt in order to start reducing it. Unfortunately, the inflated living costs are making it even more difficult for people to break the cycle of debt, and are leading to poor credit scores.
How a bad credit score can affect you
Carrying a lot of debt or failing to make payments on time could affect your credit rating. This, in turn, can lead to several complications regarding some financial products or your ability to rent.
You are less likely to be accepted for mortgages and loans
Bad credit makes you look less appealing to mainstream lenders, who will be less likely to offer you a loan or accept a mortgage application as they view you as high risk. Similarly, a landlord or estate agent may be unlikely to consider a rent application for the same reason.
Qualifying for a credit card may be difficult
Like with loans, lenders will check for debt and a low credit rating. If your credit score is poor and you have a significant amount of debt, it’s much more likely that your credit card application will be refused.
Getting car finance can be tricky
Getting car finance is another difficulty when you have bad credit. Lenders will be much less inclined to offer you car finance if you have higher risk factors such as debt and a history of missed payments.
Fortunately, there are still ways to finance a car with bad credit. It’s important to note that whilst it is possible to get car finance even with a bad credit score, you do need to be sensible about it. Always do your research around which car would be suitable for you and what will match your budget.
You might face larger interest rates
If you do get accepted for a loan, mortgage, or credit card whilst you have bad credit, it’s not unusual for your repayments to be much higher than that of someone with a good credit rating. Lenders do this as a way to better protect themselves since the risks they are taking are higher when someone has a poor credit history.
Your car insurance premiums could be higher
A bad credit score could lead to higher auto insurance premiums. Whilst it’s unlikely you’ll ever be rejected for insurance based on your credit score, it is likely you will have less available options and the premiums on offer could be much more costly.
Financial products can still be beneficial
When used correctly, credit cards, loans, and other financial products can be advantageous in helping you make larger purchases such as cars or houses. However, it’s important to note that whilst they can be a good tool for spreading costs, it’s essential to conduct thorough research when considering a financial product as you are responsible for your own credit.
Business
New development in Haverfordwest showcased to Welsh Government
MEMBERS of the Welsh Government and Pembrokeshire County Council toured Augustus Grange, a new housing development in Haverfordwest created by Lovell in partnership with housing association Pobl Group.
The development, located off St David’s Road, will provide 115 two and three-bedroom homes, including 36 homes for open market sale and 79 affordable homes. Of these, 37 will be available through Shared Ownership, and 42 will be for affordable rent.
The Welsh Government has contributed more than £8.6 million through its Social Housing Grant to fund the affordable rent homes, addressing a significant demand for accessible housing options in the area.
A collaborative vision
During the visit, Cabinet Secretary for Housing and Local Government, Jayne Bryant MS, praised the project’s contribution to increasing housing availability.
“Delivering more homes is a key priority for this government, and it’s fantastic to support Lovell and Pobl’s vision for Augustus Grange,” she said. “This investment will provide high-quality, affordable housing for individuals and families in Haverfordwest.”
Pembrokeshire County Council’s Leader, Cllr Jon Harvey, and Cabinet Member for Housing, Cllr Michelle Bateman, also attended alongside other officials, including Gaynor Toft, Head of Housing, and David Meyrick, Housing Strategy and Affordable Housing Manager.
Cllr Bateman highlighted the importance of the development: “Increasing affordable housing is a key priority, and it’s fantastic to see a mix of open market, affordable, and social rent homes being developed in our county town.”
Progress on display
Lovell and Pobl showcased the site, including the sales office and a newly launched Lambourne-style show home. The Augustus Grange development is Lovell’s first project in West Wales and represents a key part of its growth strategy.
“We are incredibly proud of Augustus Grange,” said James Duffett, Lovell’s Regional Managing Director. “This project demonstrates our team’s achievements, combining the best of our partnerships and sales expertise to create a development people will be proud to call home.”
Designed for community
Claire Tristham, Director of Development at Pobl Group, underscored the collaborative effort behind the project.
“This development secures much-needed housing for the community, designed to meet high sustainability standards, ensuring affordability in both rent and heating costs,” she said.
The site’s proximity to Haverfordwest’s rich history and natural beauty further enhances its appeal. Future residents will enjoy access to the Pembrokeshire Coast National Park, Haverfordwest Castle, and excellent shopping and commuter links.
To learn more about Augustus Grange, visit www.lovell.co.uk or call 01437 468 024. Sales offices are open Thursday to Monday, 10:00am to 5:00pm.
Business
Fresh bid for new ‘staycation’ dog kennels in Pembrokeshire
A FOURTH call for a south Pembrokeshire dog boarding and day care centre, refused on multiple occasions and dismissed on appeal has been submitted to planners.
Michelle Bramwell, of Little Langdon, near Kilgetty, had submitted re-sited plans for a commercial dog boarding and day care centre at Little Langdon following the previously-refused applications and appeal.
A supporting statement by agent Hayston Developments & Planning Ltd said: “The application involves the erection of a single boarding kennels building providing a total of 12 kennels together with various ancillary facilities, with upgrading of the existing vehicular access together with parking, landscaping and biodiversity enhancements.
“The application follows on from three previous applications for a similar form of development, which were refused by the council with the more recent application also having been dismissed at appeal in October 2023.
“This planning practice has been brought in to seek a solution for the development of the site. Having reviewed the previous applications and the appeal decision, the scheme has been reviewed with a materially different proposal now being presented for consideration by the council. The revisions made are significant and have significantly reduced the impact of the development with additional planting and provision of a hedgebank.
“This revised submission provides additional information which demonstrates that such a location is justified and that with the economic and social benefits highlighted and would align with the thrust of TAN 6 which encourages business developments within the countryside.
“Whilst it is acknowledged this revised proposal would still have some impact upon the countryside, it is contended that those impacts have been minimised such that it would be compatible with the capacity and character of the countryside in which it is located.”
It says that, while dismissing the appeal, “the Inspector concluded that such a business in this location could be acceptable in principle, the Inspector expressed concerns over the scale, siting and visual impact of the proposed development and how possible outdoor noise disturbance from associated activities could be satisfactorily controlled, such as through mitigation measures”.
It concludes: “In our view, the changes made are such to in effect to represent a materially different scheme from that which was before the Inspector in 2023. Further, certain aspects of the proposal, including its layout and operation, have been clarified by the applicant.”
The agent, in previous applications has said: “One of the key benefits of such a proposal, as fully acknowledged by the appeal Inspector, was that with the proximity of several local visitor attractions it would provide a useful service to their customers, amongst other clients.
“As part of the appeal application, it was contended that with staycation on the rise and the increase in pet ownership, boarding kennels and day care services are in demand.
“The proposal would allow tourists to visit, knowing their dogs can board within a reasonable distance of their holiday accommodation. It would allow tourists to visit nearby attractions which quite often have no-pets policies, such as Oakwood, Manor Wildlife Park, the Dinosaur Park, Heatherton and Folly Farm.”
The latest proposal will be considered by county planners at a later date.
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