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Why experts think Trump’s win will be blow to UK economy and your wallet

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DONALD TRUMP’S return to the US presidency casts an uncertain shadow over the UK, potentially leading to economic shocks that could burden British households with higher costs, lower growth, and less job security. His policy unpredictability and “America First” doctrine spell challenges for UK businesses, while his strong-willed approach to trade and foreign policy could drive a wedge between the two countries.

TRADE TENSIONS COULD COST UK EXPORTERS

Trump’s protectionist stance has reignited concerns about tariffs, which could cut deep into the UK economy. The US is Britain’s largest export market, receiving around 25% of all UK-manufactured exports. Proposed tariffs of up to 10% on imports to the US would affect major British exporters such as Rolls Royce and BAE Systems, impacting an estimated £56 billion in trade. If enacted, such tariffs could push costs higher, threatening thousands of jobs in sectors dependent on American demand.

A STRAINED UK-US RELATIONSHIP

While Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy have made diplomatic overtures to Trump, attending dinners and working closely with Trump’s allies, challenges in the relationship remain evident. Starmer’s reserved style contrasts with Trump’s brash manner, raising questions about how compatible their leadership styles are. This uncertainty, highlighted by one diplomat’s remark that Trump “doesn’t give a stuff” about UK relations, suggests a bumpy road ahead.

Diplomats have tirelessly built relationships with Trump’s inner circle, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump’s likely national security adviser, Elbridge Colby. However, Trump’s mercurial nature, marked by unpredictable social media outbursts and contentious negotiations, may test these connections. As Lammy put it, relations with Trump are likely to be “bumpy, noisy, and transactional.”

ECONOMIC FALLOUT AND SLOWER GROWTH

The potential for UK economic slowdown under Trump’s policies is profound. Economists from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict UK growth will be halved if Trump enforces his proposed tariffs. Without tariffs, the UK could expect moderate growth of around 1.2% next year; however, this figure could drop as low as 0.4% should the trade restrictions come into force. Coupled with rising inflation, this could lead to diminished purchasing power for households already grappling with a cost-of-living crisis.

CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND JOB THREATS

Trump’s victory has already weakened the pound, with the GBP/USD exchange rate falling sharply as results came in. Investors are wary of increased tariffs and Trump’s isolationist policies, both of which could stoke currency volatility and strain the UK economy. A weakened pound also drives up the cost of imports, which affects consumers directly through higher prices for everyday goods.

The potential loss of thousands of jobs in sectors heavily reliant on US trade adds to the bleak outlook. Automotive manufacturing, for instance, could be heavily impacted by Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on imported cars. Companies like Jaguar Land Rover, whose Land Rover Defender was one of the UK’s top exports to the US, may face cutbacks if tariffs make exports uncompetitive.

UNCERTAIN INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT

The UK’s global-facing stock market may also suffer. Companies in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250, which derive significant profits from international operations, could experience volatility as Trump’s policies introduce uncertainty into transatlantic trade. Such uncertainty could lead investors to shy away from the UK market, diminishing capital inflows and further affecting economic growth.

SHIFTS IN GLOBAL PRIORITIES

Beyond economic pressures, Trump’s foreign policy outlook could exacerbate the UK’s security challenges. Trump’s “America First” rhetoric and emphasis on Asia over Europe may leave European allies, including the UK, less confident about US support for initiatives like defending Ukraine. While the UK has publicly aligned with Trump’s view that Europe should shoulder more of its defense costs, there are fears that a US pivot to Asia could weaken the cohesion of NATO and reduce military backing for Europe.

Lammy has attempted to foster an understanding of Trump’s instincts, acknowledging his focus on American interests and recognition of Asia’s growing influence. However, as the UK looks toward cooperation on issues like Ukraine, this alignment may prove insufficient in securing the support needed to address shared security concerns.

BRITISH FAMILIES TO SHOULDER THE COST

For British families, the impact of a Trump presidency could hit close to home. With increased tariffs potentially driving up inflation by 3-4%, the Bank of England may feel compelled to raise interest rates by as much as 2-3% in response. For households already feeling the pinch from rising prices, this could lead to higher mortgage costs, increased borrowing rates, and a tougher job market, further squeezing living standards.

Though the UK government has prepared for Trump’s return, the effectiveness of these plans remains to be seen. As Britain braces for another unpredictable chapter with Trump at the helm, citizens may face a “bumpy, noisy, and transactional” relationship that could reshape the economy, impacting everything from job security to the prices at the supermarket.

 

Business

New showroom for car dealership approved by county planners

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PLANS for a new showroom for a Pembrokeshire car dealership which has recently acquired a new Isuzu vehicle franchise, have been given the go-ahead.

In an application to Pembrokeshire County Council, Gareth Hughes Motors of 25 Burton Road, Sardis, through agent Hayston Developments & Planning Ltd, sought permission to replace a temporary canopy with fixed permanent mini-showroom.

A supporting statement said: “Gareth Hughes Motors is a family run enterprise, established in 1982. In order for the business to respond to the latest technological advancements, especially those related to the transition to hybrid and electric vehicles, additional space and different resources will be required.

“Approval of this application will assist in the delivery of these required resources, associated staff training and recruitment for the servicing of electric vehicles will also lead to the retention and provision of skilled employment.”

It says the extension will be designed to allow sufficient space to display Isuzu vehicles, an additional motor franchise recently acquired by the dealership, with no changes proposed to the existing access from the C3007 as the mini-showroom would take place to the rear of the site and replace an existing canopy structure.

It added: “The environmental impacts from the proposal are minimal as the replacement structure takes place on a concreted/bitumac surface which is currently used for the parking of cars. In addition, the design and use of materials complements that of the current showroom and repair shop and by the addition of a bird and bat box on the south-east of the proposed extension.

“The proposed new mini-showroom will accommodate a maximum of two vehicles and would take place to the rear/side of the site and would be constructed in materials which complement those of the existing showroom and service bays.

“Although Gareth Hughes Motors is located within a group of residential properties it is considered that there will be no significant negative impacts on those neighbouring properties because of their distance from the application site, the orientation of the buildings.

“The securing of an additional franchise at this Sardis site will both help secure the future of the existing staff and create opportunities for additional employment in the motor trade.”

The application was conditionally approved by county planners.

 

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Business

The Cheesecake Guy Ltd plans withdrawn following community council objections

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PLANS for what could have been the third store in the country for Welsh cheesecake business The Cheesecake Guy Ltd at Saundersfoot’s Coal Building interpretation centre have been withdrawn.

In an application to Pembrokeshire Coast National Park, Craig Taylor of Merthyr Tydfil-based The Cheesecake Guy Ltd sought a change of use of part of Saundersfoot’s Cambrian Terrace Coal Building interpretation centre to create a small retail unit.

On its website, The Cheesecake Guy says of its business and products: “Established in 2019, The Cheesecake Guy is all about delivering indulgent, handcrafted cheesecake desserts with a twist. While we offer a range of sweet treats, our specialty — and customer favourite — is the signature cheesecake jar.

“Made with quality ingredients and packed with rich, creamy layers, our jars are the perfect dessert for any occasion. Whether you’re treating yourself or sharing with others, The Cheesecake Guy brings a spoonful of happiness to every bite.”

While no supporting statement was published for the Saundersfoot proposal, the application said the scheme, if approved, would employ two full-time members of staff, operating 10am-6pm Mon-Sat, and 10-5 on Sundays and bank holidays.

Of the scheme itself it said it would involve “retail sales of pre-prepared desserts and merchandise,” adding there will be “no on-site manufacturing or heavy processing,” with “equipment limited to display fridges and freezers”.

If approved, the Saundersfoot site would have been the third outlet for The Cheesecake Guy, with sites in Merthyr, and, more recently, Newport Market.

For its Newport site, The Cheesecake Guy says: “We specialise in creating a wide variety of cheesecake desserts that cater to all tastes. Our menu features popular favourites that have won the hearts of many, alongside exciting new creations designed to keep your taste buds satisfied.

“Whether you’re a classic cheesecake lover or an adventurous foodie, we promise a cheesecake experience like no other. Each cheesecake is made with the utmost care, ensuring a rich, creamy texture and a burst of flavour in every slice (or jar!).”

Since the application was submitted, Saundersfoot Community Council objected “on the basis that the harbour is diluting the original intention of this area, which was designed to be an educational section of the development”.

The application is now, as of June 19, marked as withdrawn.

 

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Business

Amended Fishguard children’s home scheme approved

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AN AMENDED scheme for a children’s care home on the edge of Fishguard has been approved after a previous call was refused.

In an application to Pembrokeshire County Council, Martin Leahy of Ty Caredig Ltd sought a certificate of lawfulness permission for the use of a dwellinghouse to a residential care home for up to two children at Bryn Delyn, Y Fraich, Fishguard.

Last November, a similar call to allow Bryn Delyn to be used as a children’s home, which raised fears from local objectors the scheme was being ‘rubber stamped’ by the council, was refused.

In that application to the council, Cardiff-based Ty Caredig Ltd sought permission for a Certificate of Lawfulness on the basis the use was not materially different from the property’s existing lawful use.

Residents had accused the council of “pushing through a highly controversial children’s home application behind closed doors”.

A supporting statement for that scheme, with many redacted parts, said the four-bed property had a lawful use as a dwelling house; saying the use as a care home did not require planning permission through a change of use.

However, planners said the use of the dwelling as a care home “would represent a material change of use requiring the benefit of planning permission”.

Since then, amendment to the scheme, for a lawful change of use was submitted, a supporting statement saying Ty Caredig Ltd operates homes throughout Wales that provide specialist care for children, the latest scheme “seeks formal confirmation that the proposed use of Bryn Delyn as a children’s care home for up to two children (plus care staff) would not require planning permission”.

Fishguard Town Council objected, on the grounds of highway safety and parking issues.

It also raised points of “apparent discrepancies between the planning application and the information available on the website,” but stressed it did support provision of suitable accommodation for vulnerable young people and children “with the correct infrastructure in place”.

Local county councillor Cllr Par Davies has said the scheme has her “full support,” as did the certificate call, adding: “Rumours abound regarding this application with objections concerning the usage of the property as a care home for young people. The application states that only two young people would be cared for in the property.

“This type of property is needed as we often talk as councillors for the need for Pembrokeshire children in care to remain in Pembrokeshire instead of the alternative of moving them to other areas in the country and this application fulfils that need.”

The application was approved by planners, the approval stating “Based on the information submitted and on the balance of probability it is considered that the use of the property as a residential care home for up to two children would not result in a material change of use from the lawful use of the property as a dwellinghouse and as a result a certificate of lawfulness for a proposed use should be granted.”

 

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