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Why experts think Trump’s win will be blow to UK economy and your wallet

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DONALD TRUMP’S return to the US presidency casts an uncertain shadow over the UK, potentially leading to economic shocks that could burden British households with higher costs, lower growth, and less job security. His policy unpredictability and “America First” doctrine spell challenges for UK businesses, while his strong-willed approach to trade and foreign policy could drive a wedge between the two countries.

TRADE TENSIONS COULD COST UK EXPORTERS

Trump’s protectionist stance has reignited concerns about tariffs, which could cut deep into the UK economy. The US is Britain’s largest export market, receiving around 25% of all UK-manufactured exports. Proposed tariffs of up to 10% on imports to the US would affect major British exporters such as Rolls Royce and BAE Systems, impacting an estimated £56 billion in trade. If enacted, such tariffs could push costs higher, threatening thousands of jobs in sectors dependent on American demand.

A STRAINED UK-US RELATIONSHIP

While Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy have made diplomatic overtures to Trump, attending dinners and working closely with Trump’s allies, challenges in the relationship remain evident. Starmer’s reserved style contrasts with Trump’s brash manner, raising questions about how compatible their leadership styles are. This uncertainty, highlighted by one diplomat’s remark that Trump “doesn’t give a stuff” about UK relations, suggests a bumpy road ahead.

Diplomats have tirelessly built relationships with Trump’s inner circle, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump’s likely national security adviser, Elbridge Colby. However, Trump’s mercurial nature, marked by unpredictable social media outbursts and contentious negotiations, may test these connections. As Lammy put it, relations with Trump are likely to be “bumpy, noisy, and transactional.”

ECONOMIC FALLOUT AND SLOWER GROWTH

The potential for UK economic slowdown under Trump’s policies is profound. Economists from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict UK growth will be halved if Trump enforces his proposed tariffs. Without tariffs, the UK could expect moderate growth of around 1.2% next year; however, this figure could drop as low as 0.4% should the trade restrictions come into force. Coupled with rising inflation, this could lead to diminished purchasing power for households already grappling with a cost-of-living crisis.

CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND JOB THREATS

Trump’s victory has already weakened the pound, with the GBP/USD exchange rate falling sharply as results came in. Investors are wary of increased tariffs and Trump’s isolationist policies, both of which could stoke currency volatility and strain the UK economy. A weakened pound also drives up the cost of imports, which affects consumers directly through higher prices for everyday goods.

The potential loss of thousands of jobs in sectors heavily reliant on US trade adds to the bleak outlook. Automotive manufacturing, for instance, could be heavily impacted by Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on imported cars. Companies like Jaguar Land Rover, whose Land Rover Defender was one of the UK’s top exports to the US, may face cutbacks if tariffs make exports uncompetitive.

UNCERTAIN INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT

The UK’s global-facing stock market may also suffer. Companies in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250, which derive significant profits from international operations, could experience volatility as Trump’s policies introduce uncertainty into transatlantic trade. Such uncertainty could lead investors to shy away from the UK market, diminishing capital inflows and further affecting economic growth.

SHIFTS IN GLOBAL PRIORITIES

Beyond economic pressures, Trump’s foreign policy outlook could exacerbate the UK’s security challenges. Trump’s “America First” rhetoric and emphasis on Asia over Europe may leave European allies, including the UK, less confident about US support for initiatives like defending Ukraine. While the UK has publicly aligned with Trump’s view that Europe should shoulder more of its defense costs, there are fears that a US pivot to Asia could weaken the cohesion of NATO and reduce military backing for Europe.

Lammy has attempted to foster an understanding of Trump’s instincts, acknowledging his focus on American interests and recognition of Asia’s growing influence. However, as the UK looks toward cooperation on issues like Ukraine, this alignment may prove insufficient in securing the support needed to address shared security concerns.

BRITISH FAMILIES TO SHOULDER THE COST

For British families, the impact of a Trump presidency could hit close to home. With increased tariffs potentially driving up inflation by 3-4%, the Bank of England may feel compelled to raise interest rates by as much as 2-3% in response. For households already feeling the pinch from rising prices, this could lead to higher mortgage costs, increased borrowing rates, and a tougher job market, further squeezing living standards.

Though the UK government has prepared for Trump’s return, the effectiveness of these plans remains to be seen. As Britain braces for another unpredictable chapter with Trump at the helm, citizens may face a “bumpy, noisy, and transactional” relationship that could reshape the economy, impacting everything from job security to the prices at the supermarket.

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Tourist attractions to close in protest over tourism tax

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WELSH tourist attractions will shut their doors for a day this week in protest against the Welsh Government’s proposed tourism tax. The Welsh Association of Visitor Attractions (WAVA), which represents over 100 major sites across the country, has announced a coordinated closure on Tuesday, December 10, following an emergency meeting.

Protest against tourism tax plans

The protest targets a proposed visitor levy that could be introduced in 2027. Under the plan, hotel, B&B, and self-catering guests would face a nightly charge of £1.25, with hostels and campsites paying a reduced rate of 75p. Local councils would have the option to implement the tax in their areas.

WAVA has warned the tax could severely damage the tourism sector. The group cited government-commissioned research suggesting the levy could lead to a £40 million loss in revenue and cost over 700 jobs in the industry, even with an estimated 1.6% drop in visitor numbers. Many industry leaders fear the actual impact could be far worse.

Industry leaders voice concerns

Anglesey Sea Zoo described the proposed tax as “one more blow” to an already struggling sector. “Welsh tourism hasn’t recovered since Covid,” she said. “People will go to England rather than pay a tax to holiday in Wales. This tax risks killing tourism.”

The Zoo’s management criticized rising operational costs such as minimum wage increases and VAT rates, which she compared unfavorably to European tourism markets. “Tourism tax works in Europe because they pay 8% VAT, not 20% like us,” she added.

Other WAVA members expressed similar concerns. One attraction owner estimated they would need an additional £25,000 annually to cover wage and national insurance increases. The sector has also reported a 23% drop in overnight visitors last year, with 60% of attractions experiencing fewer visitors than in 2023.

Calls for government action

In a statement, WAVA said: “Welsh tourism is the slowest to recover from Covid compared to other UK regions. All leading experts in Welsh tourism had advised the Welsh Government not to go ahead with a tourism tax.”

Tourism operators hope the closures will send a powerful message to policymakers, highlighting the challenges facing the industry and the potential consequences of the proposed levy.

Highlighting industry struggles

Tuesday’s closures aim to draw attention to the financial and operational pressures facing Welsh attractions. Rising costs, declining visitor numbers, and post-pandemic struggles have left the industry vulnerable, with leaders urging the Welsh Government to rethink the tourism tax and engage more closely with stakeholders.

Experts support the levy

Linda Osti, Senior Lecturer in Tourism Management at Bangor University, said: “The introduction of a visitor levy is a significant step forward for Wales. Drawing on our research, it’s clear that when implemented thoughtfully, such levies can not only enhance the visitor experience but also address some of the environmental and social challenges posed by tourism. Hypothecating the funds for tourism-related projects is particularly important, ensuring that both locals and tourists see tangible benefits.”

Rhys ap Gwilym, Senior Lecturer in Economics at Bangor University, added: “Opponents often argue that a levy could discourage visitors, but our findings suggest otherwise. In many destinations worldwide, tourism taxes have actually contributed to a more sustainable and attractive tourism offering. By carefully considering local nuances, such as including day visitors or tailoring rates seasonally, Wales has a chance to lead the way in innovative tourism management.”

Both experts emphasized the importance of collaboration and flexibility in the levy’s design. They noted that empowering local authorities to manage revenues effectively could ensure the funds are used strategically. “A well-monitored and adaptable levy could act as a model for other regions,” said Dr. Osti. “Regular evaluations will be essential to refine the system and maintain its effectiveness over time.”

Dr. ap Gwilym concluded: “This levy is not just a tax; it’s an investment in Wales’s future as a sustainable and competitive destination. By learning from global best practices and addressing local challenges, we can ensure long-term benefits for communities and the economy alike.”

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People in Wales ‘most honest’ on financial applications

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JUST 7% of people in Wales would consider providing false information to secure a preferential rate on financial products, according to new data from global information and insights company TransUnion. This is significantly below the UK average of 19%.

Despite ongoing cost-of-living pressures, which see almost half of UK households (43%) struggling to keep up with inflation, Wales emerges as the most trustworthy part of the UK in this area. Northern Ireland (41%) and London (36%) top the list of regions where residents are most likely to consider providing inaccurate information for better financial deals.

Welsh honesty stands out

James Robinson, Managing Director of Consumer Interactive at TransUnion in the UK, praised the findings:
“It is heartening to see that most people stay honest when applying for financial products, despite experiencing continued strain on their finances – and that should be commended. It’s also worth noting that not everyone who says they would provide false information actually follows through. However, even a small minority of consumers doing so can cause significant challenges for financial providers and risks for the individuals involved.”

Legal ways to secure better deals

While Wales leads in financial honesty, the research highlights that some misrepresentation persists. For instance, 10% of respondents in Wales find it acceptable to use a different email address to access new customer deals, while 9% see no issue with being named as a driver on a vehicle they don’t use.

Robinson emphasized that even seemingly minor falsifications can be considered fraud, carrying severe legal and financial consequences. Instead of resorting to dishonesty, consumers are encouraged to explore legal alternatives. TransUnion suggests practical steps such as shopping around for deals, accessing pre-approved offers, or using credit monitoring tools to improve financial standing.

Credit monitoring proves effective

The research revealed that 87% of people in Wales who used a credit monitoring service found it helpful. Benefits included identifying steps to improve credit scores (38%), gaining a better understanding of credit mechanics (34%), and recognizing eligibility for specific loans or rates (16%). These measures reduce the temptation to falsify information.

Top tips for better financial deals

TransUnion offers the following advice for securing better financial terms without resorting to dishonesty:

  1. Check your credit score regularly
    Monitoring your credit score can help you identify simple ways to improve it, such as registering to vote or setting up Direct Debits for minimum repayments.
  2. Look for pre-approved offers
    These deals are tailored to your credit profile, increasing the likelihood of approval and saving time.
  3. Consider credit unions
    Credit unions often provide competitive rates and ethical alternatives for borrowing.
  4. Refinance or negotiate existing deals
    Use credit monitoring tools to identify opportunities to lower rates on loans or credit cards.
  5. Stay vigilant against fraud
    Regularly check your credit profile to catch suspicious activity and protect your financial health.

Wales sets the standard

While challenges remain, the honesty displayed by most Welsh residents serves as a benchmark for the rest of the UK. By adopting legal strategies to secure better deals, consumers can safeguard their financial well-being while maintaining integrity.

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Welsh Government rejects Council’s tourism tax plea

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THE WELSH GOVERNMENT has rejected a request from Pembrokeshire County Council to reconsider its 182-night rule on holiday letting.

In a letter to the local authority from Wales’s Finance Secretary, Mark Drakeford, the Welsh Government said it would not reconsider its approach until it had two years’ data on its effects.

The Labour government introduced the 182-night rule to target property owners who casually rent properties and pay neither the increased Council Tax premium on second homes nor Small Business Rates. By encouraging owners to release properties onto the for-sale market, the government wants to increase the availability of homes in Wales’s holiday hotspots. It’s a blunt tool, and there have been predictable but unforeseen consequences (at least by the Welsh Government). The rule’s introduction has reduced the number of properties upon which owners pay either the enhanced rate of Council Tax for second homes or pay business rates.

A LETTER TO MARK

On October 17, Pembrokeshire’s county councillors instructed the Council leader to write to the Welsh Government asking for a reduction in the 182-night rule.

Although councillors agreed an increase in the previous threshold was welcome, many felt the letting target was too high for many viable businesses.

The letter to the Welsh Government said: “Whilst 182 days is certainly achievable in some of our main tourist towns such as Tenby, Saundersfoot, and Newport, it was very difficult to achieve this in other parts of the county, particularly away from the sea.”

The letter said the rule is having a detrimental effect on Pembrokeshire’s vital tourism industry.

Council Leader Jon Harvey’s letter also said: “We do not wish to implement any local policy decisions that would conflict with Welsh Government, and, as such, I am formally writing to you to ask the Welsh Government to consider reducing the 182 days let threshold for self-catering properties to qualify for Non-Domestic Rates.”

DRAKEFORD SAYS “NO”

In a reply from Mark Drakeford, which was circulated to all Council members, the Welsh Government refused to reconsider its position ahead of the next tourism season.

Mr Drakeford said: “The primary aims of our changes to local taxes are to ensure property owners are making a fair contribution and to maximise the use of property to the benefit of local communities. This could include benefits arising from increased occupancy for short-term letting or the release of some properties for sale or rent as permanent homes for local people.

“As a consequence of the changes, self-catering properties are classed as non-domestic only if they are being used for business purposes for the majority of the year. This provides a clearer demonstration that the properties concerned are being let regularly and are making a substantial contribution to the local economy.”

Mr Drakeford claimed that information from businesses engaged in holiday letting showed the Welsh Government’s approach was having the effects Cardiff Bay desired. That seems contrary to data provided by the Wales Tourism Alliance and the figures produced for Pembrokeshire County Council’s budget.

Confirming the Welsh Government has no plans to reconsider its position, Mark Drakeford said: “We understand that there may be a period of adjustment, as some property owners consider their options and determine how to respond. It will be important to allow time for the changes to embed before drawing any firm conclusions.

“The initial impact on the number of self-catering properties classified as non-domestic will be known after April 2025, when two years will have elapsed since the changes took effect. This is when the Valuation Office Agency is expected to have completed a full round of routine compliance checks.”

Claiming that reconsidering the position would cause “uncertainty” in the private letting sector, Mr Drakeford wrote: “There are no plans to undertake a formal review in the short-term, nor in isolation from the broader package of measures within our three-pronged approach to tackling the impact that large numbers of second homes and holiday lets can have on communities and the Welsh language.”

That’s not only a “no”, it’s a “no” with knobs on.

YOU ALREADY HAVE ALL THE TOOLS YOU NEED

Mark Drakeford doubled down on his “no” by claiming Pembrokeshire County Council already had all the tools it needed to address the problems caused by the tourism tax.

He said: “We have extended the exceptions to council tax premiums to include properties with a planning condition which specifies that the property may only be used as a holiday let or prevents its permanent occupation as a person’s sole or main residence. We have also provided

guidance for local authorities on the use of discretion to tailor their arrangements to reflect local circumstances.”

Quite how designating a property for a holiday let allows its release onto the local housing market where homes for local families are in short supply is unaddressed.

The Finance Secretary continues: “Where a self-catering property does not meet the letting criteria and is not subject to a planning condition, the Welsh Government has provided local authorities with as much discretion as possible to consider the approach to take for the benefit of your communities.

“We consider our local taxation regime will help local authorities to incentivise the right balance between capacity within the self-catering tourism sector, and [its[ economic benefits and supporting viable communities of local residents to live and work in these areas.”

If, as Mark Drakeford claims, Pembrokeshire County Council has all the powers and options it needs to address the issue, there will, no doubt, be a flood of information coming from the Council’s Cabinet Member for Finance, Joshua Beynon, to show members precisely where the rabbit that should be in the hat is hidden.

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