LABOUR has insisted the Senedd election remains “wide open” despite polling suggesting Plaid Cymru could emerge as the largest party after Thursday’s vote.

Deputy First Minister and Welsh Labour deputy leader Huw Irranca-Davies said the latest figures were “disappointing” for Labour, but argued that the result could still be decided by narrow margins in several constituencies.

Speaking on ITV Wales’ Sharp End programme, Mr Irranca-Davies rejected suggestions that the campaign had become a straight contest between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

He said: “The polling that we’ve had tonight would be disappointing for Labour, you can’t take away from it.

“But what it also shows is there are really narrow margins, particularly for that fifth and sixth seat, and that is where a lot of parties can make a difference, so it’s not a two-horse race.”

The comments came after a new ITV Cymru Wales poll placed Plaid Cymru on 33% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 29%.

Under MRP modelling for the new 96-seat Senedd system, Plaid Cymru was projected to win 43 seats, with Reform UK on 34.

Labour was forecast to fall to 12 seats, with the Conservatives on four, the Greens on two, and the Liberal Democrats on one.

The figures would leave Plaid Cymru short of an overall majority, but potentially in the strongest position to form a government.

Analysts have warned, however, that small shifts in vote share could have a major effect on the final seat totals, particularly under the new six-member constituency system.

Plaid Cymru’s Heledd Fychan said the polling showed that the race was between Plaid and Reform in many parts of Wales.

She warned that Reform could still emerge as the largest party if anti-Reform voters did not back Plaid Cymru.

Reform UK’s James Evans questioned whether the poll reflected what the party was hearing from voters during the campaign.

He said Reform was seeing strong support on the doorstep from people opposed to Labour, Plaid Cymru and potential coalition arrangements after the election.

The Welsh Conservatives also argued that they could still play an important role in a divided Senedd.

Tom Giffard said: “If you vote Conservative and you are a Conservative, you’ll get Conservative representation.

“No party’s going to win a majority.”

The Green Party, polling at 8%, could win two seats under the projection.

Green representative Philip Davies said small increases in support could make the difference in closely contested areas, particularly for the final seats in each constituency.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats, polling at 6%, are projected to return leader Jane Dodds, although party representative Tim Sly said the campaign had been focused on target seats where the party believed it could outperform polling expectations.

Voters across Wales go to the polls on Thursday (May 7).

INDEPENDENT Senedd candidate Paul Haywood-Dowson has contacted Dyfed-Powys Police alleging that his election campaign was deliberately disrupted less than 24 hours before polling day.

In an email sent on Wednesday afternoon (May 6) to the force’s Electoral Fraud and Malpractice Single Point of Contact (SPOC), Mr Haywood-Dowson claimed a marketing contractor had taken possession of 4,000 election leaflets and then stopped responding to communications.

Mr Haywood-Dowson, who is standing in the Ceredigion Penfro constituency, alleged the actions amounted to “criminal sabotage of election material” under Section 115 of the Representation of the People Act 1983.

He wrote: “I am formally reporting a criminal interference in the election occurring right now.”

The candidate claimed a Liverpool-based contractor had collected the leaflets and accepted £252 in payment before allegedly failing to deliver or return them.

Mr Haywood-Dowson stated: “By taking physical possession of my flyers and refusing to deliver or return them 24 hours before the poll, he has used a ‘fraudulent device or contrivance’ to prevent the free exercise of the franchise by my potential voters.”

He further alleged: “This is not a delivery delay. It is Theft by Deception.”

The email requested a crime reference number and asked police to contact the contractor “immediately” to secure the return of the campaign material.

The Herald has contacted Dyfed-Powys Police and the contractor, who we are not naming at this stage, for comment.

REFORM UK leader Nigel Farage has been criticised after a campaign advert urging people to vote in the “London elections” appeared in a Welsh newspaper read by voters in Powys.

Critics say advert shows Reform’s campaign is focused on London, not Wales

The two-page party political advert was published in the Powys County Times on Friday (May 1), just days before voters in Wales go to the polls in the Senedd election on Thursday (May 7).

The advert included a letter from Mr Farage in which he attacked London Mayor Sadiq Khan and claimed the capital had become “lawless” and “unrecognisable” under Labour.

But the message appeared to have been aimed at London voters, not those in Powys.

In the letter, Mr Farage wrote: “If you want to get rid of Keir Starmer and change the direction of this country, there is one way to do it: Vote Reform in the London elections on May 7th.”

He added: “London needs Reform. It is one of the world’s great capitals. Yet these days Sadiq Khan’s London often feels lawless and unrecognisable to Londoners who can no longer afford to live in their own city.”

The advert has since been seized on by rival parties, who say it raises questions about Reform UK’s focus on Wales during the Senedd campaign.

A Welsh Labour source said: “For Wales, see London. Reform UK’s focus isn’t on Wales, it’s on getting Farage into Number 10.

“They don’t even care enough to place the right advert in the right country. It’s all about promoting Farage as their front man and fooling voters into thinking they’ve got more than slogans.”

Voters in Wales will elect Members of the Senedd on Thursday, while a number of local council and mayoral elections are also taking place in England.

In London, all 32 boroughs are holding elections, with more than 1,800 councillors due to be elected.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats also criticised the advert.

Glyn Preston, the party’s lead candidate for Gwynedd Maldwyn, said: “Reform can’t even get the right election on their own leaflets. It says everything about how little they understand or care about Wales or Powys, and raises serious questions about their ability to run the country.

“While they’re busy talking about Sadiq Khan and London, the Liberal Democrats are focused on the issues that actually matter to people here in Powys — long NHS waiting times, rural communities, and securing a fair deal on investment from Cardiff Bay.

“Powys deserves representatives who are rooted in the communities they serve, who know and understand local challenges, not yes-men taking their lead from Nigel Farage in London in his latest quest for power.”

Reform UK has been running newspaper adverts across Wales in the run-up to the Senedd election.

The party has been polling strongly, with surveys suggesting it could make major gains under the new voting system.

Reform UK has not yet commented publicly on why a London-focused advert appeared in a Powys newspaper.