News

Large Council Tax hikes while councils hold £2 billion in reserves

Published

1 year ago

February 26, 2025

Calls for Reform in Welsh Government Funding Formula

RESIDENTS across Wales are facing an average 7.36% increase in Council Tax for the 2025-26 financial year, despite councils holding more than £2 billion in usable reserves. The proposed hikes come amid concerns that the Welsh Labour Government’s Local Government Funding Formula is outdated, leading to significant disparities in funding between councils.

While councils argue that reserves are necessary for financial stability and future investment, critics say the current system places an unfair burden on taxpayers and fails to ensure efficient spending. Some councils are sitting on reserves exceeding £200 million, while others struggle to meet budget demands, raising questions about fairness and transparency in the funding model.

Funding formula concerns
The Welsh Local Government Funding Formula is under scrutiny, with critics highlighting that it still relies on population data from the 1990s. There are also concerns about uneven funding allocations, with some councils receiving significantly more per capita than their neighbours.

For example, Newport City Council receives £600 more per head than Monmouthshire County Council, despite both serving similar areas. Additionally, the funding formula assumes that the cost to a council of an 84-year-old resident is just £7.34, while an 85-year-old resident is assumed to cost over £2,243—a discrepancy that critics argue defies logic.

Welsh Conservative debate in the Senedd
The Welsh Conservatives are set to bring forward a debate in the Senedd next week, urging the Welsh Government to commission an independent review of the funding formula and work with councils to use reserves to ease the burden on taxpayers. The party is also calling for local referendums for any council proposing a tax rise above 5%.

Speaking ahead of the debate, Laura Anne Jones MS, Welsh Conservative Shadow Secretary for Housing and Local Government, said: “Under the Welsh Labour Government, the Local Government Funding Formula is broken. It cannot be right that people in Wales face a 7% hike in their Council Tax while councils sit on over £2 billion in reserves.

In the Senedd next week, we will be calling on the Welsh Labour Government to fix this system by commissioning an independent review and ensuring Council Tax is kept as low as possible.”

The debate motion
The motion to be debated next week includes the following points:

Recognising the essential role of councils in delivering public services and the funding challenges they face.
Noting that Welsh councils hold over £2 billion in reserves.
Expressing regret that the proposed Council Tax rise in Wales is 7.36% for 2025-26.
Calling on the Welsh Government to:
Review the Local Government Funding Formula to ensure fairer distribution of funding.
Encourage councils to use reserves to minimise Council Tax increases.
Introduce referendums for any Council Tax rise above 5%.
Reduce bureaucracy and increase efficiency in local government.
Promote cross-council collaboration to cut costs and improve services.
Foster a business-like approach to spending taxpayer money, reducing waste and unnecessary projects.

Council Perspective

Many local authorities defend their financial reserves, arguing that they are needed for unexpected costs, future investments, and financial stability. Some councils state that rising costs, particularly in social care and education, leave them little choice but to raise Council Tax.

A Welsh Government spokesperson previously stated that funding allocations are based on need and that councils are free to use reserves at their discretion. They argue that long-term financial planning is crucial, especially in times of economic uncertainty.

As the debate unfolds, the challenge remains striking a balance—ensuring councils have the funding they need while protecting residents from excessive tax increases.

News

Parties make final push as Wales prepares to vote in historic Senedd election

Published

10 hours ago

May 6, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Campaign leaders criss-cross country in last-minute battle for crucial votes

WALES heads to the polls tomorrow (Thursday, May 7) after a frenetic final day of campaigning that saw party leaders, candidates and activists make one last push to win over undecided voters in what is being described as the most unpredictable Senedd election in modern Welsh history.

With polling stations due to open at 7:00am, parties spent Wednesday targeting key battleground constituencies across the country, including the new Ceredigion Penfro seat, amid growing expectations of a fragmented Senedd and a dramatic shake-up in Welsh politics.

The election is the first to be held under Wales’ new expanded Senedd system, with 96 Members of the Senedd being elected across 16 large constituencies using a proportional closed-list voting system.

Reform UK appeared to finish the campaign with significant momentum following a major rally on Tuesday attended by party leader Nigel Farage. The event drew large crowds and considerable online attention as Reform attempted to convert strong polling figures into seats in Cardiff Bay for the first time.

Farage used the rally to attack both Labour and Plaid Cymru, while positioning Reform as the party of “change” for disillusioned voters. Reform campaigners have focused heavily on immigration, cost of living pressures and opposition to what they describe as “wasteful government spending.”

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth spent the final day presenting his party as the main alternative to both Labour and Reform UK, insisting Plaid could “build a fairer Wales” while warning against what he described as “divisive politics.”

Labour figures, including First Minister Eluned Morgan and deputy leader Huw Irranca-Davies, urged voters not to “take risks” with public services, arguing only Welsh Labour could protect the NHS and local councils during a period of economic uncertainty.

Labour activists were heavily focused on turnout operations in traditional strongholds, amid polling suggesting the party could lose ground after decades as the dominant force in Welsh politics.

The Conservatives attempted to rally core voters with warnings about both Labour and Reform, while also focusing on farming, the rural economy and healthcare waiting lists.

In west Wales, Conservative candidates Paul Davies and Sam Kurtz spent the day meeting voters and carrying out final campaign visits across Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion, arguing their experience and local knowledge would be important under the new electoral system.

The Liberal Democrats and Green Party also maintained visible campaigns in several areas, hoping tactical voting and the proportional voting system could help them secure representation.

Across Wales, campaign teams handed out leaflets outside transport hubs, supermarkets and town centres, while social media campaigning intensified throughout the day.

Political analysts believe turnout could prove decisive, particularly because the new voting system means relatively small shifts in support could determine the allocation of the fifth and sixth seats in many constituencies.

The campaign has been dominated by debates over the NHS, farming, the economy, transport, tourism and the rising cost of living, alongside concerns about the future direction of Welsh devolution.

Polling stations open across Wales from 7:00am until 10:00pm on Thursday, with counting due to begin on Friday morning.

The Herald will provide live election coverage online throughout polling day and count day, including updates from count centres, candidate interviews and reaction as results emerge from across west Wales and the rest of the country.

News

Plaid Cymru projected to lead Senedd as Labour faces historic collapse

Published

10 hours ago

May 6, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Final poll suggests Welsh politics could be on the brink of a major realignment

PLAID CYMRU is on course to become the largest party in the Senedd, according to the final YouGov MRP projection for ITV Cymru Wales before polling day.

The model suggests Labour’s century-long dominance of Welsh elections could be coming to an end, with Plaid projected to win 43 seats in the newly expanded 96-member Senedd.

Reform UK is forecast to finish second on 34 seats, while Labour is projected to fall to just 12.

The poll, based on responses from more than 4,600 adults between April 25 and May 4, puts Plaid Cymru on 33% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 29%. Labour is on 12%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 8% and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

Labour facing major losses

The projection points to a dramatic collapse in Labour support across Wales.

YouGov’s central estimate would represent a notional loss of 32 seats for Labour compared with the 2021 result under the new electoral system.

It would also be Labour’s worst result at any major Welsh election since 1906.

The model suggests Labour may fail to top the poll in any of the 16 new Senedd constituencies, and could return no members at all in four of them.

In west Wales, Labour’s support is projected to have fallen into single figures in some areas.

First Minister Eluned Morgan, who leads Labour’s list in Ceredigion Penfro, could also be at risk if the projection proves accurate.

Reform surge

Reform UK is projected to make major gains, rising from just 1% of the vote in 2021 to 29% in the final pre-election model.

The party’s support appears to be spread widely across Wales, though it is weaker in Cardiff and strongest in parts of the south Wales valleys.

One of the most striking projections is in Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr, which includes the Merthyr Tydfil area where Keir Hardie was elected as Wales’s first Labour MP in 1900.

There, YouGov’s central estimate puts Reform UK narrowly ahead on 34%, Plaid Cymru on 33%, and Labour on 14%.

Smaller parties

The Conservatives are projected to win just four seats, which would be their weakest devolved election result.

That would leave them one short of the five members needed to form an official political group in the Senedd.

The Greens are forecast to enter the Senedd for the first time, winning two seats in Cardiff.

The Liberal Democrats are projected to win one seat in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, keeping Jane Dodds in the Senedd.

No majority expected

No party is projected to win the 49 seats needed for an outright majority.

YouGov’s modelling suggests Plaid Cymru would be best placed to lead the next Welsh Government, but would probably need support from another party.

Plaid and Labour together reach a majority in most of the model’s simulations, while a Plaid-Green arrangement does so far less often.

A Reform-Conservative majority appears unlikely in the projection.

Under the new D’Hondt voting system, small movements in vote share could still make a significant difference, particularly for the final seats in each constituency.

Polling stations open tomorrow, Thursday, May 7.