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Plaid Cymru projected to lead Senedd as Labour faces historic collapse

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Final poll suggests Welsh politics could be on the brink of a major realignment

PLAID CYMRU is on course to become the largest party in the Senedd, according to the final YouGov MRP projection for ITV Cymru Wales before polling day.

The model suggests Labour’s century-long dominance of Welsh elections could be coming to an end, with Plaid projected to win 43 seats in the newly expanded 96-member Senedd.

Reform UK is forecast to finish second on 34 seats, while Labour is projected to fall to just 12.

The poll, based on responses from more than 4,600 adults between April 25 and May 4, puts Plaid Cymru on 33% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 29%. Labour is on 12%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 8% and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

Labour facing major losses

The projection points to a dramatic collapse in Labour support across Wales.

YouGov’s central estimate would represent a notional loss of 32 seats for Labour compared with the 2021 result under the new electoral system.

It would also be Labour’s worst result at any major Welsh election since 1906.

The model suggests Labour may fail to top the poll in any of the 16 new Senedd constituencies, and could return no members at all in four of them.

In west Wales, Labour’s support is projected to have fallen into single figures in some areas.

First Minister Eluned Morgan, who leads Labour’s list in Ceredigion Penfro, could also be at risk if the projection proves accurate.

Reform surge

Reform UK is projected to make major gains, rising from just 1% of the vote in 2021 to 29% in the final pre-election model.

The party’s support appears to be spread widely across Wales, though it is weaker in Cardiff and strongest in parts of the south Wales valleys.

One of the most striking projections is in Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr, which includes the Merthyr Tydfil area where Keir Hardie was elected as Wales’s first Labour MP in 1900.

There, YouGov’s central estimate puts Reform UK narrowly ahead on 34%, Plaid Cymru on 33%, and Labour on 14%.

Smaller parties

The Conservatives are projected to win just four seats, which would be their weakest devolved election result.

That would leave them one short of the five members needed to form an official political group in the Senedd.

The Greens are forecast to enter the Senedd for the first time, winning two seats in Cardiff.

The Liberal Democrats are projected to win one seat in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, keeping Jane Dodds in the Senedd.

No majority expected

No party is projected to win the 49 seats needed for an outright majority.

YouGov’s modelling suggests Plaid Cymru would be best placed to lead the next Welsh Government, but would probably need support from another party.

Plaid and Labour together reach a majority in most of the model’s simulations, while a Plaid-Green arrangement does so far less often.

A Reform-Conservative majority appears unlikely in the projection.

Under the new D’Hondt voting system, small movements in vote share could still make a significant difference, particularly for the final seats in each constituency.

Polling stations open tomorrow, Thursday, May 7.

 

Health

New NHS regional body raises questions over future hospital services in Pembrokeshire

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Health bosses promise better joined-up care — but patients will want assurances over Withybush and travel distances

PEMBROKESHIRE patients are likely to be asking what a major NHS shake-up means for the future of hospital services closer to home after a new regional health body formally took over planning across south west Wales.

Health chiefs this week confirmed that regional working has formally transferred from ARCH (A Regional Collaboration for Health) to the South West Wales Regional Joint Committee (RJC), bringing together Hywel Dda and Swansea Bay university health boards under a new leadership structure.

The move is being presented by NHS leaders as a way to improve coordination, reduce waiting times and strengthen specialist healthcare across the region.

Key programmes expected to continue under the new body include cancer care, stroke services, vascular treatment, orthopaedics, pathology and eye care.

But for many in Pembrokeshire, the announcement may trigger familiar concerns about whether “regional working” could eventually mean more services being delivered further east, requiring patients to travel longer distances to Carmarthen or Swansea.

Withybush Hospital remains fiercely valued by local communities, and previous changes to hospital services have often sparked strong public reaction.

For patients in more rural parts of Pembrokeshire — including St Davids, Fishguard, Newport, Crymych and Tenby — access to healthcare can already involve journeys of 40 to 60 miles or more for appointments and treatment.

While health officials insist the new structure is about improving care and making better use of expertise across the region, questions are likely to be asked locally over how Pembrokeshire’s voice will be represented in decisions affecting frontline services.

Among the issues patients may want clarified are whether services currently provided at Withybush could be affected, how travel difficulties for rural communities will be considered, and whether the new regional approach will improve care locally or lead to greater centralisation.

The Regional Joint Committee replaces ARCH, which since 2015 brought together Swansea Bay University Health Board, Hywel Dda University Health Board and Swansea University to support healthcare innovation and service planning.

Health leaders say the new committee will continue to support research, technology and partnership working, while involving patients and communities in shaping services.

But in here Pembrokeshire, many will this plan weaken Withybush, not strengthen it.

 

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Crime

Man used vulnerable victim’s bank card at Milford Haven Tesco

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A 41-YEAR-OLD man has been given a suspended prison sentence after using a vulnerable man’s bank card at Tesco Extra in Milford Haven.

Mark Anthony Hambrook, of Keeston, admitted fraud by false representation when he appeared before magistrates.

The court heard that Hambrook dishonestly used the card on April 29, 2025, spending £220.

Magistrates said the offence crossed the custody threshold because it involved a breach of trust, a vulnerable victim, and was committed while Hambrook was on post-sentence supervision.

He was sentenced to 16 weeks in prison, suspended for 12 months.

Hambrook was also ordered to pay £220 compensation, together with a £154 surcharge and £85 costs.

 

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Local Government

Aberystwyth mayoral appointment reversed after councillor controversy

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Town council cancels mayor-making ceremony as incumbent asked to remain in post

ABERYSTWYTH TOWN COUNCIL has dramatically reversed its decision over who will serve as mayor for the coming year, following controversy surrounding councillor Dylan Lewis-Rowlands.

At an extraordinary meeting held on Tuesday evening, councillors agreed that current mayor Cllr Emlyn Jones should remain in post for a second term, replacing an earlier decision that had seen Cllr Lewis-Rowlands selected for the role.

The council confirmed Cllr Jones will formally continue as Mayor of Aberystwyth from Monday (May 18).

In a statement, the authority said: “Following an extraordinary meeting of the Council, Cllr Emlyn Jones has been appointed as Mayor elect for the 2026/27 municipal year and is due to be appointed as Mayor of Aberystwyth, commencing his second term of office from Monday 18 May 2026.

“In light of these circumstances, the council has decided that the Mayor Making Ceremony scheduled to take place on Friday 15 May will no longer go ahead.”

The reversal follows recent media reports concerning historic messages sent by Cllr Lewis-Rowlands to a teenage student, which prompted criticism and renewed scrutiny over his suitability for ceremonial office.

The messages, first reported by local media, were said to contain sexually suggestive content. The matter reportedly led to internal disciplinary action by the Labour Party, which issued a formal warning after reviewing complaints.

Public concern over the appointment had grown in recent weeks, with a protest reportedly planned ahead of the mayor-making ceremony. Those plans are understood to have been withdrawn following the council’s decision to retain the existing mayor.

Cllr Lewis-Rowlands has previously apologised for the messages, describing them as “stupid and embarrassing” and saying he regretted the upset caused.

He has maintained that multiple complaints and investigations into the matter were either dismissed or not upheld, with one formal warning issued by the Labour Party relating to a specific allegation.

The move leaves Cllr Emlyn Jones set to continue in office while questions remain over how the original mayoral appointment was allowed to proceed in the first place.

The controversy has also renewed debate over the standards expected of civic leaders in Aberystwyth, particularly in ceremonial roles such as mayor, where office holders are expected to act as ambassadors for the town and represent the wider community.

 

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