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Welsh Labour whips MSs to oppose Welsh Government policy

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WELSH politics is a looking-glass world. There is a Labour Government in Cardiff Bay held in such contempt by Welsh constituency Labour MPs that its policies are dismissed as “for the birds”. Even bearing that in mind, Wednesday, March 12, was a day in the Senedd that went from the bizarre to the surreal.

GETTING WALES A FAIR SHARE

Plaid called a debate on transport funding. Their motion called on the Welsh Government to confirm its position that Wales should receive the resultant consequentials in line with figures quoted by current UK Government Ministers when in opposition. It also asked for the Welsh Government to write to the UK Secretary of State for Transport to ask for the full consequentials to be made available to Wales.

The “consequentials” referred to are the £4.2bn that the Labour Government in Wales and Labour MPs and ministers in Westminster called for from the Conservative government. The Conservative government under David Cameron designated HS2 an England and Wales project despite the fact that not one centimetre of track or one cubic metre of concrete would be in Wales. Scotland received funding as a result of the project’s cost. Wales did not.

The pursuit of funding for Wales as a result of HS2 is uncontroversial in the Welsh Parliament. EVERY party, including the Conservatives, have consistently called for the funding to come to Wales for years. It is Welsh Government policy.

In those circumstances, Plaid’s motion calling for the Welsh Government to stand by its policy and write to the Secretary of State for Transport should have been uncontroversial. All those Labour MSs who spent years talking about how the Tories had robbed Wales of funding on a transparent ruse would surely line up to demand that their Labour comrades do likewise.

THE WORLD OF UNREASON

Alas, on Wednesday, March 12, things took a turn so surreal that a visitor from a country taking the first steps towards democracy might well have turned around after watching what unfolded and begged for the return of a repressive dictatorship in their nation.

Instead, Labour Minister Jane Hutt filed an amendment to Plaid Cymru’s motion that deleted any reference to HS2 funding and instead thanked Westminster for not nuking Cardiff. That last might be an exaggeration, but not much of one.

As the debate unfolded, our fictional visitor from a foreign land would’ve been forgiven if they’d spent a long time looking for the hidden camera and the gotcha reveal.

Labour MS after Labour MS stood up and pilloried the last Conservative government for failing to fund transport infrastructure in Wales adequately. Labour after Labour MS stood up and praised their Labour counterparts in Westminster for notionally increasing funding for transport infrastructure in Wales. All those Labour MSs conspicuously failed to support the Welsh government’s policy that Wales should get full consequential funding from HS2. Of course, they’d all like to have it, but now there is a Labour government at the other end of the M4, it doesn’t matter to them. Or, if it does, those speaking from the Labour benches in the debate are hypocrites whose previous call for funding was grandstanding duplicity.

We had the bizarre experience of watching Welsh Labour MSs barracking Welsh Conservative MSs during the latter’s speeches, calling for nothing more than the Welsh Labour government to follow its policy. And also to write a formal letter to the Labour Westminster government repeating its previous calls for equitable treatment.

As virtually all Labour MSs represent constituencies within the South Wales Metro area, a project already well underway and scheduled for completion relatively soon, it came as no surprise that they mentioned that project. Somehow, none of them mentioned that Westminster’s funding for it via funding to Cardiff Bay long predated July 4, 2024.

Outside South Wales, they were not much interested.

There wasn’t as much as lip service to rural Wales’s transport needs. Instead, Labour MSs mentioned “a pipeline of projects”, most of which are not advanced beyond the blue-sky-thinking stage.

DODDS’ DOWNBEAT CONTRIBUTION SHINES

Jane Dodds: Highlighting shortfall in rail enhancement investment in Wales

Plaid’s contributions were not much better. Instead of a laser focus on HS2 funding, their motion gave Labour members a chance to chip away at comparatively small beer in financial terms. “Who needs £4.2bn when we’ve been told we’ll get £34m for Labour constituencies?”

Two factors hamstrung the Conservatives’ contributions. First, none of their best performers spoke in the debate. Second, the last Conservative government not only ignored their calls over HS2 funding but also made unfunded pledges for rail infrastructure in Wales.

It took the Welsh Parliament’s sole Liberal Democrat to point out the fatuousness of Labour MSs’ posturing conduct and the Welsh government’s abuse of the amendment system.

Jane Dodds said: “This is really quite depressing for two reasons. One is that those two parties just want to tear chunks out of each other for not doing what the other one thinks they should be doing. And the second reason—and I am very frustrated with the Welsh Government—is the ‘delete all’ that you’ve put on the motion.

“I challenge every single one of you here just to reread what the motion calls for. With the greatest of respect to my Labour colleagues, let’s remind ourselves. Do tell me what you disagree with here.

“It ‘calls on the Welsh Government to provide updated figures on the shortfall in rail enhancement investment in Wales’. What’s wrong with that? 

“Secondly [it asks the Welsh Government to] ‘confirm its position that HS2 should be redesignated as an England-only project and that Wales should receive the resultant consequentials in line with figures quoted by current UK Government Ministers when in opposition’.

“What’s wrong with that? 

“And thirdly: ‘write to the UK Secretary of State for Transport to ask for the full consequentials to be made available to Wales and reversal of low levels of enhancement spending.’

“That is the focus and the ask of this debate. We all accept that services could be better elsewhere, in ‘where I live’ or whatever, but it’s not about that. I feel these Wednesday afternoon debates are really the opposition parties putting down a motion and the Welsh Government saying ‘delete all’, and it feels like on this occasion just for the point of doing it.”

Her reward for a thoughtful intervention was another interruption from Alun Davies MS. This time, Mr Davies pointed out Ms Dodds’s Liberal Democrat colleague was transport minister in the coalition when HS2 was designated for England and Wales.

As whataboutery goes, it’s hard to beat. It is for Mr Davies to explain how what a Liberal Democrat MP did a dozen or more years ago was relevant to the terms of Wednesday’s debate and why the promises made by Labour in Westminster while it was in opposition no longer bind it. Perhaps Labour MPs in Westminster are as hypocritical and as guilty of grandstanding as their Cardiff Bay counterparts.

SKATES SPEECH BEYOND PARODY

One thing neither Alun Davies nor any other Labour MS addressed was the substance of what Jane Dodds said. They couldn’t explain what they opposed in the motion or elucidate any points of disagreement. Labour filed their “delete all” amendment and opposed the motion not because they opposed it or disagreed with it but because they’d been told to oppose it and disagree with it.

Transport Minister Ken Skates’s response to the debate was so risible that he ended up talking about Plaid’s policy on Welsh independence instead of the motion before the Chamber. Mr Skates fatuously stated that it was a good job Wales wasn’t independent because then there’d be no question of funding from Westminster, let alone HS2 funding.

At that point, our foreign visitor was on the plane back to their homeland, plotting to burn down polling stations before the disease spread.

Heledd Fychan, for Plaid, tried in vain to get the Transport Minister to stick to the motion’s point. It proved beyond Mr Skates. She may as well have tried nailing jelly to a wall.

As Labour members unanimously voted against doing something that reflects Welsh government policy, all that was missing was a Terry Gilliam animation and the closing credits to Eluned Morgan’s Flying Circus.

This is how devolution ends, not with a bang but to the strains of The Liberty Bell March.

 

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Parties make final push as Wales prepares to vote in historic Senedd election

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Campaign leaders criss-cross country in last-minute battle for crucial votes

WALES heads to the polls tomorrow (Thursday, May 7) after a frenetic final day of campaigning that saw party leaders, candidates and activists make one last push to win over undecided voters in what is being described as the most unpredictable Senedd election in modern Welsh history.

With polling stations due to open at 7:00am, parties spent Wednesday targeting key battleground constituencies across the country, including the new Ceredigion Penfro seat, amid growing expectations of a fragmented Senedd and a dramatic shake-up in Welsh politics.

The election is the first to be held under Wales’ new expanded Senedd system, with 96 Members of the Senedd being elected across 16 large constituencies using a proportional closed-list voting system.

Reform UK appeared to finish the campaign with significant momentum following a major rally on Tuesday attended by party leader Nigel Farage. The event drew large crowds and considerable online attention as Reform attempted to convert strong polling figures into seats in Cardiff Bay for the first time.

Farage used the rally to attack both Labour and Plaid Cymru, while positioning Reform as the party of “change” for disillusioned voters. Reform campaigners have focused heavily on immigration, cost of living pressures and opposition to what they describe as “wasteful government spending.”

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth spent the final day presenting his party as the main alternative to both Labour and Reform UK, insisting Plaid could “build a fairer Wales” while warning against what he described as “divisive politics.”

Labour figures, including First Minister Eluned Morgan and deputy leader Huw Irranca-Davies, urged voters not to “take risks” with public services, arguing only Welsh Labour could protect the NHS and local councils during a period of economic uncertainty.

Labour activists were heavily focused on turnout operations in traditional strongholds, amid polling suggesting the party could lose ground after decades as the dominant force in Welsh politics.

The Conservatives attempted to rally core voters with warnings about both Labour and Reform, while also focusing on farming, the rural economy and healthcare waiting lists.

In west Wales, Conservative candidates Paul Davies and Sam Kurtz spent the day meeting voters and carrying out final campaign visits across Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion, arguing their experience and local knowledge would be important under the new electoral system.

The Liberal Democrats and Green Party also maintained visible campaigns in several areas, hoping tactical voting and the proportional voting system could help them secure representation.

Across Wales, campaign teams handed out leaflets outside transport hubs, supermarkets and town centres, while social media campaigning intensified throughout the day.

Political analysts believe turnout could prove decisive, particularly because the new voting system means relatively small shifts in support could determine the allocation of the fifth and sixth seats in many constituencies.

The campaign has been dominated by debates over the NHS, farming, the economy, transport, tourism and the rising cost of living, alongside concerns about the future direction of Welsh devolution.

Polling stations open across Wales from 7:00am until 10:00pm on Thursday, with counting due to begin on Friday morning.

The Herald will provide live election coverage online throughout polling day and count day, including updates from count centres, candidate interviews and reaction as results emerge from across west Wales and the rest of the country.

 

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Plaid Cymru projected to lead Senedd as Labour faces historic collapse

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Final poll suggests Welsh politics could be on the brink of a major realignment

PLAID CYMRU is on course to become the largest party in the Senedd, according to the final YouGov MRP projection for ITV Cymru Wales before polling day.

The model suggests Labour’s century-long dominance of Welsh elections could be coming to an end, with Plaid projected to win 43 seats in the newly expanded 96-member Senedd.

Reform UK is forecast to finish second on 34 seats, while Labour is projected to fall to just 12.

The poll, based on responses from more than 4,600 adults between April 25 and May 4, puts Plaid Cymru on 33% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 29%. Labour is on 12%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 8% and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

Labour facing major losses

The projection points to a dramatic collapse in Labour support across Wales.

YouGov’s central estimate would represent a notional loss of 32 seats for Labour compared with the 2021 result under the new electoral system.

It would also be Labour’s worst result at any major Welsh election since 1906.

The model suggests Labour may fail to top the poll in any of the 16 new Senedd constituencies, and could return no members at all in four of them.

In west Wales, Labour’s support is projected to have fallen into single figures in some areas.

First Minister Eluned Morgan, who leads Labour’s list in Ceredigion Penfro, could also be at risk if the projection proves accurate.

Reform surge

Reform UK is projected to make major gains, rising from just 1% of the vote in 2021 to 29% in the final pre-election model.

The party’s support appears to be spread widely across Wales, though it is weaker in Cardiff and strongest in parts of the south Wales valleys.

One of the most striking projections is in Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr, which includes the Merthyr Tydfil area where Keir Hardie was elected as Wales’s first Labour MP in 1900.

There, YouGov’s central estimate puts Reform UK narrowly ahead on 34%, Plaid Cymru on 33%, and Labour on 14%.

Smaller parties

The Conservatives are projected to win just four seats, which would be their weakest devolved election result.

That would leave them one short of the five members needed to form an official political group in the Senedd.

The Greens are forecast to enter the Senedd for the first time, winning two seats in Cardiff.

The Liberal Democrats are projected to win one seat in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, keeping Jane Dodds in the Senedd.

No majority expected

No party is projected to win the 49 seats needed for an outright majority.

YouGov’s modelling suggests Plaid Cymru would be best placed to lead the next Welsh Government, but would probably need support from another party.

Plaid and Labour together reach a majority in most of the model’s simulations, while a Plaid-Green arrangement does so far less often.

A Reform-Conservative majority appears unlikely in the projection.

Under the new D’Hondt voting system, small movements in vote share could still make a significant difference, particularly for the final seats in each constituency.

Polling stations open tomorrow, Thursday, May 7.

 

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Fatal crash appeal after driver dies on A44 near Aberystwyth

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POLICE are appealing for witnesses after a driver died in a crash on the A44.

Dyfed-Powys Police said the collision happened at around 6:10pm on Tuesday (May 5) on the A44 between Capel Bangor and Goginan, near Aberystwyth

The crash involved a single vehicle, a white Volkswagen Golf, which was travelling eastbound towards Goginan when it left the carriageway.

Sadly, the driver died at the scene. Their next of kin have been informed and are being supported by specialist officers.

Police confirmed there were no other passengers in the vehicle.

Officers are now asking anyone who witnessed the collision, or who may have dashcam footage from the area at the time, to come forward.

Anyone with information is asked to contact Dyfed-Powys Police online, by emailing [email protected], or by calling 101.

 

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