TODAY the Six Nations reaches its climax – it’s Super Saturday, Wales and England prepare for a clash in Cardiff that could have significant implications—both for England’s title hopes and for Wales’ battle to avoid the Wooden Spoon.

Match Details

• Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
• Date: Saturday, 15 March
• Kick-off: 16:45 GMT
• Coverage: Watch live on BBC One and BBC iPlayer; listen live on BBC Radio 5 Live, BBC Radio Wales, BBC Radio Cymru & BBC Sounds; text commentary and highlights on BBC Sport website and app.

England’s Title Aspirations

Steve Borthwick’s men remain in contention for their first Six Nations title since 2020, but their fate is not entirely in their own hands. Victory over Wales is essential, but they must also rely on Scotland to upset France in Paris—a scenario that, given Les Bleus’ dominance against Ireland, seems a tall order. Still, even if the title eludes them, England will be keen to finish strongly and avoid a slip-up against a struggling Welsh side.

England have faced criticism for their performances in the tournament, yet they have managed to put themselves in a position to challenge for silverware. Their forward dominance and defensive resilience have been key, but question marks remain over their attacking game. A convincing win in Cardiff would not only bolster their standings but also send a message ahead of future international campaigns.

Wales’ Fight to Avoid the Wooden Spoon

Wales find themselves in an unfamiliar and uncomfortable position. A 16-Test losing streak, including defeats to Ireland and Scotland in this tournament, has left them rooted to the bottom of the table. While performances have improved under interim attack coach Matt Sherratt, Wales have yet to turn competitiveness into results.

There have been glimpses of promise, particularly in the fightback against Scotland, where Wales came close to pulling off an unlikely comeback. However, their inability to sustain pressure for the full 80 minutes remains a concern. A victory over England would be a morale-boosting triumph and a statement that Welsh rugby is on the path to recovery.

Team News

Wales: Sherratt has made two changes, with Joe Roberts making his professional debut on the wing in place of the injured Tom Rogers, while Aaron Wainwright replaces Tommy Reffell in the back row.

• Starting XV: Murray; Roberts, Llewellyn, B Thomas, Mee; Anscombe, T Williams; N Smith, Dee, John; Rowlands, Jenkins; Wainwright, Morgan (capt), Faletau.
• Replacements: D Lake, G Thomas, K Assiratti, T Williams, Reffell, R Williams, J Evans, Tompkins.

England: Borthwick has made multiple changes, including Marcus Smith’s return at full-back and Tommy Freeman’s shift to centre. Ben Curry starts in the back row, and Luke Cowan-Dickie takes over at hooker.

• Starting XV: Smith; Roebuck, Freeman, Dingwall, Daly; F Smith, Mitchell; Genge, Cowan-Dickie, Stuart; Itoje (capt), Chessum; T Curry, B Curry, Earl.
• Replacements: George, Baxter, Heyes, Cunningham-South, Pollock, Willis, Van Poortvliet, Ford.

Where the Game Will Be Won

England’s defensive structure will be tested by Wales’ improved attacking shape, with the hosts looking to move the ball quickly and expose weaknesses. The selection of Tommy Freeman at outside centre for England is a bold call, and Wales will likely target him defensively.

The visitors’ back row—featuring Ben Earl and the Curry twins—will be instrumental in slowing Welsh ball at the breakdown. Meanwhile, England’s set-piece superiority could give them a crucial platform, particularly at scrum time, where Wales have struggled.

For Wales, the return of Taulupe Faletau and the inclusion of Aaron Wainwright in the back row could provide the dynamism needed to challenge England’s forwards. However, they must find a way to generate front-foot ball, as their lack of dominant ball carriers has hindered their ability to break down defences.

Key Battles to Watch

One of the standout head-to-head contests will be between number eights Faletau and Earl. Faletau reminded everyone of his class against Scotland, and his ability to carry, tackle, and influence the breakdown will be crucial for Wales. Earl, meanwhile, has been one of England’s most consistent performers over the past two years, and another standout display could cement his place in the British and Irish Lions conversation.

Elsewhere, the duel between Wales’ Gareth Anscombe and England’s George Ford at fly-half will be pivotal in dictating the tempo. Both are experienced playmakers capable of controlling a game with their kicking and tactical awareness. The aerial battle will also be a major factor, with England likely to test Wales’ back three under the high ball.

Match Facts

• England have won nine of the last 11 Six Nations meetings between these sides, including the last three in a row.
• Wales have lost 10 straight matches in the Six Nations.
• Saturday marks 525 days since Wales’ last victory, against Georgia at the Rugby World Cup in October 2023.
• England have the highest dominant carry (39%), tackle evasion (27%), and gainline success (65%) rates in this Six Nations.
• Maro Itoje is just two turnovers away from surpassing Brian O’Driscoll’s all-time Six Nations record of 53 turnovers won.
• Tommy Freeman could become only the second player after France’s Philippe Bernat-Salles (2001) to score in all five rounds of a single Six Nations.

Prediction

Despite Wales’ improvements, England’s superior set-piece, defensive organisation, and breakdown work give them the edge. While the Principality Stadium crowd will be in full voice, Borthwick’s side should have enough to secure victory—though it may not be the free-flowing performance England fans crave.

Final score prediction: England by 10.