News
Welsh Labour dominance under threat in closest Senedd race in 25 years
New electoral system and rising support for Reform could reshape political landscape in 2026
WELSH Labour’s long-standing dominance in Cardiff Bay could come to an end at the 2026 Senedd Election, with the latest projections showing the party only narrowly ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Plaid Cymru in what is set to be the tightest race in a generation.
Cavendish, one of the UK’s leading public affairs and communications consultancies, today (Thursday, April 10) launched its new Senedd Seat Projector, revealing dramatic shifts in public support and the likelihood of a multi-party government.
Using polling data and modelling based on the new proportional voting system and enlarged Senedd, Cavendish forecasts that Labour may secure 28 seats—just one ahead of Reform on 27, with Plaid Cymru close behind on 24.
Under the reformed system, 96 members will be elected across 16 new constituencies, with each electing six MSs. The changes are expected to significantly alter how campaigns are run and how votes are converted into seats.
Coalition government likely
Cathy Owens, Director at Cavendish, said a coalition government appears almost certain.
“Our Senedd Seat Projector sets out a stark reality for Welsh Labour,” she said. “It shows a coalition between Labour and Plaid Cymru as the most likely outcome, potentially with joint First Ministers.
“Otherwise, a combination of the Conservatives, Reform, and Plaid Cymru would be needed to secure a majority—a scenario that seems politically unlikely.”
Cavendish says the data reflects a “seismic” shift in Welsh politics. For the past 25 years, Welsh Labour has polled consistently between 35% and 40%. But over the last year, support for Labour has dropped significantly, with Reform now regularly polling at similar levels.
The polling picture
Cavendish compiled projections from leading pollsters over the last 12 months. While Labour consistently leads, the margin is often razor-thin. A sample of projections includes:
Survation (April 2025):
- Labour: 28 seats (27%)
- Reform: 27 seats (24%)
- Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (24%)
- Conservatives: 15 seats (15%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (5%)
- Greens: 0
Beaufort (December 2024):
- Labour: 28 seats (27%)
- Reform: 28 seats (24%)
- Plaid Cymru: 20 seats (18%)
- Conservatives: 17 seats (17%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (6%)
- Greens: 1
YouGov (December 2024):
- Labour: 25 seats (23%)
- Reform: 25 seats (24%)
- Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (24%)
- Conservatives: 19 seats (19%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (5%)
- Greens: 1
Redfield & Wilton (June 2024):
- Labour: 38 seats (36%)
- Reform: 11 seats (11%)
- Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (22%)
- Conservatives: 20 seats (18%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (6%)
- Greens: 1
The variation highlights the volatility of Welsh politics under the new system, with small shifts in support having a significant impact on seat distribution.
Campaigns will need to adapt
Cathy Owens added: “The new system rewards efficient, geographically spread support. Parties will need to rethink their campaign strategies completely.
“There will be six types of marginal seats, and organisations that want to influence manifesto pledges will need to engage far more strategically than before.”
Cavendish says the Senedd Seat Projector offers a unique insight into the upcoming election and will be an essential tool for journalists, analysts, campaigners and the public.
The tool is now live on the Cavendish website, along with a full report on Senedd reform.
Cavendish will also host a LinkedIn Live event featuring Cathy Owens and fellow director Nerys Evans, in conversation with journalist Will Hayward, to discuss the findings and what they mean for the future of Welsh politics.
Crime
Emergency bags rolled out to support domestic abuse victims across Dyfed-Powys
Thirty packs provide immediate help for families fleeing dangerous situations
A NEW initiative aimed at supporting victims of domestic abuse has seen thirty emergency bags distributed for use across the Dyfed-Powys Police area.
The bags, which contain essential items including toiletries, non-perishable snacks and emergency supplies, are designed to offer immediate practical support to individuals and families forced to flee abusive situations, often with little or nothing.
The scheme forms part of the Police and Crime Commissioner’s wider commitment to improving outcomes for victims and is being delivered in partnership with Dyfed-Powys Police and Dal i Godi, the commissioned Independent Domestic Violence Adviser (IDVA) service.
Dal i Godi provides specialist support to victims at high risk of serious harm, including safety planning and advocacy through the criminal justice process.
Police and Crime Commissioner Dafydd Llywelyn said the initiative was already proving its value.
“This is an incredible initiative that I’m proud to support,” he said. “It provides meaningful help to those experiencing trauma and reflects our ongoing work to put victims first.
“Within just a few days of the bags being distributed to the Dal i Godi service, one was given to a victim fleeing a domestic abuse situation, along with a children’s pack to support their young family. That shows just how essential this support can be and how quickly it can make a difference.”
Detective Chief Inspector Llyr Williams, from the Dyfed-Powys Police Vulnerability Hub, said the emergency bags could provide a vital lifeline at critical moments.
“These emergency bags offer support at some of the most difficult moments in a person’s life,” he said.
“The contents provide immediate comfort, dignity and practical help for those leaving their homes in crisis. While simple, they represent an important first step towards safety and recovery.
“We are proud to be working with partners across the Dyfed-Powys area to ensure this support reaches people when they need it most.”
Anyone experiencing domestic abuse, or concerned about someone else, is encouraged to seek help. In an emergency, call 999.
Domestic abuse can also be reported online via Dyfed-Powys Police.
Support services available include Victim Support Dyfed-Powys, which offers free and confidential help to anyone affected by crime, whether or not it has been reported, and Dal i Godi, which provides specialist IDVA support for high-risk victims.
The Live Fear Free Helpline offers 24-hour support for those experiencing domestic abuse or sexual violence across Wales.
If you or someone you know is a victim of domestic abuse, please consider reporting it. If you are in danger or need support right away, please call 999.
You can report domestic abuse through the online crime reporting service here: Report domestic abuse | Dyfed-Powys Police.
Support is also available via the below support services:
Victim Support Dyfed-Powys
Free, independent support for anyone affected by crime in the Dyfed-Powys area, whether or not it has been reported to the police.
0300 123 2996
Dal i Godi (IDVA Service)
Specialist support for victims of domestic abuse at high risk, offering safety planning, emotional support, and advocacy with agencies such as police and courts.
01267 221194
Live Fear Free Helpline
24/7 support for anyone experiencing domestic abuse or sexual violence.
0808 80 10 800 | Text 07860 077333
News
Welsh-language school praised for ‘happy, proud and friendly community’
Estyn highlights strong leadership, positive attitudes and a clear curriculum vision at Ysgol Bro Preseli
A WELSH-medium all-age school in Crymych has been praised by inspectors for fostering a “happy, proud and friendly community,” according to a recent Estyn report.
Inspectors said pupils at Ysgol Bro Preseli show pride in their local area, thrive both academically and socially, and are well prepared for the next stages of their learning.
The school currently has 932 pupils on roll, including 118 in the sixth form, and has operated as an all-age school since 2022.
Estyn found that most pupils demonstrate extremely positive attitudes to learning, treat staff with respect, and listen carefully to the contributions of their peers.
The report also notes that, in almost all cases, teachers show strong subject knowledge. Inspectors highlighted the close and supportive relationships staff build with pupils, alongside the creation of a safe learning environment where pupils are not afraid to make mistakes.
It states: “As a result of a clear strategic direction and detailed planning, teachers provide beneficial practical activities that allow pupils to develop purposeful oracy, reading and writing skills in language sessions and across the other areas of learning and experience.”
Inspectors also praised the school’s clear curriculum vision, rooted in its motto Gwreiddiau a Gorwelion (Roots and Horizons).
“Leaders and teachers provide a coherent curriculum and learning experiences that bridge the primary and secondary sectors effectively,” the report said. “Staff plan stimulating activities and experiences for pupils to learn and deepen their understanding within the areas of learning and experience. This contributes positively to the sense of belonging that permeates the whole curriculum of Ysgol Bro Preseli.”
Headteacher Rhonwen Morris said the report was a reflection of the collective effort across the school community.
“As a successful all-age Welsh-medium school, we are delighted that the report recognises our commitment to excellence and the unique identity that makes Ysgol Bro Preseli so special,” she said.
“Since becoming an all-age school in 2022, our cohesive leadership team and governing body have focused on building a strong foundation based on our values of Welsh ethos, kindness, community and responsibility.
“The report highlights the excellent strategic work of staff at all levels, which is a testament to the shared dedication and vision that drives our school forward.
“It is gratifying that the report reflects what we continuously aim to achieve day in and day out. This achievement belongs to our entire community — staff, pupils, parents and governors — and together we will continue to build on this success and provide the very best education for every pupil.”
Charity
Welsh opticians raise £1,600 for people experiencing homelessness
SPECSAVERS Pembroke Dock has helped raise £1,600 to support people experiencing homelessness this winter, with all funds going to The Wallich’s winter appeal.
Thirteen stores from North, South and West Wales donated £1 for every customer feedback form completed during November to help The Wallich, Wales’ largest homelessness and rough sleeping charity, continue its vital work.
Supporting more than 8,000 people experiencing or at risk of homelessness across the nation each year, The Wallich runs around 100 diverse projects across 20 local authorities to provide hope, support and solutions to end homelessness.
Funds raised by Specsavers will go directly to the Wallich’s Flexible Assistance Fund, which provides small but vital emergency grants. The grants support people at crucial turning points, helping cover essential costs such as phone credit, rent or food shops.
This initiative is a continuation of Specsavers’ wider homelessness programme, which sees over a hundred Specsavers stores and Home Visits services hold out-of-hours or pop-up clinics and invite people affected by forms of homelessness to use their services for free.
Specsavers’ North Wales regional relationship manager, Martin Lawrence, who helped organise the fundraiser, says: ‘We’re really proud to be supporting The Wallich’s winter appeal at a time when support is needed most.
‘Homelessness affects people in every community and as locally owned and run businesses, Specsavers stores are committed to raising awareness of the issue and supporting people through their toughest moments.
‘We’re excited to build on the success of this fundraiser and strengthen our partnership with The Wallich in the new year.’
Louisa Turner, head of fundraising at The Wallich, adds: ‘Winter can be an incredibly difficult time for people experiencing homelessness and this support from Specsavers will make a real difference.
‘The funds raised will help provide emergency grants at critical moments – whether that’s putting food on the table, helping someone stay connected with their loved ones or preventing someone from losing a safe place to live.
‘This kind of support creates vital turning points and helps people move towards a safer, more secure future.’
Specsavers works year-round with homelessness charities including Crisis, Vision Care and The Big Issue, to improve access to healthcare and advocate for policy change – ensuring people experiencing homelessness can receive free eye tests, glasses and hearing checks.
To find out more about Specsavers or to book an appointment at your local store, visit: https://www.specsavers.co.uk/stores.
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