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Welsh Labour dominance under threat in closest Senedd race in 25 years

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New electoral system and rising support for Reform could reshape political landscape in 2026

WELSH Labour’s long-standing dominance in Cardiff Bay could come to an end at the 2026 Senedd Election, with the latest projections showing the party only narrowly ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Plaid Cymru in what is set to be the tightest race in a generation.

Cavendish, one of the UK’s leading public affairs and communications consultancies, today (Thursday, April 10) launched its new Senedd Seat Projector, revealing dramatic shifts in public support and the likelihood of a multi-party government.

Using polling data and modelling based on the new proportional voting system and enlarged Senedd, Cavendish forecasts that Labour may secure 28 seats—just one ahead of Reform on 27, with Plaid Cymru close behind on 24.

Under the reformed system, 96 members will be elected across 16 new constituencies, with each electing six MSs. The changes are expected to significantly alter how campaigns are run and how votes are converted into seats.

Coalition government likely

Cathy Owens, Director at Cavendish, said a coalition government appears almost certain.

“Our Senedd Seat Projector sets out a stark reality for Welsh Labour,” she said. “It shows a coalition between Labour and Plaid Cymru as the most likely outcome, potentially with joint First Ministers.

“Otherwise, a combination of the Conservatives, Reform, and Plaid Cymru would be needed to secure a majority—a scenario that seems politically unlikely.”

Cavendish says the data reflects a “seismic” shift in Welsh politics. For the past 25 years, Welsh Labour has polled consistently between 35% and 40%. But over the last year, support for Labour has dropped significantly, with Reform now regularly polling at similar levels.

The polling picture

Cavendish compiled projections from leading pollsters over the last 12 months. While Labour consistently leads, the margin is often razor-thin. A sample of projections includes:

Survation (April 2025):

  • Labour: 28 seats (27%)
  • Reform: 27 seats (24%)
  • Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (24%)
  • Conservatives: 15 seats (15%)
  • Lib Dems: 2 seats (5%)
  • Greens: 0

Beaufort (December 2024):

  • Labour: 28 seats (27%)
  • Reform: 28 seats (24%)
  • Plaid Cymru: 20 seats (18%)
  • Conservatives: 17 seats (17%)
  • Lib Dems: 2 seats (6%)
  • Greens: 1

YouGov (December 2024):

  • Labour: 25 seats (23%)
  • Reform: 25 seats (24%)
  • Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (24%)
  • Conservatives: 19 seats (19%)
  • Lib Dems: 2 seats (5%)
  • Greens: 1

Redfield & Wilton (June 2024):

  • Labour: 38 seats (36%)
  • Reform: 11 seats (11%)
  • Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (22%)
  • Conservatives: 20 seats (18%)
  • Lib Dems: 2 seats (6%)
  • Greens: 1

The variation highlights the volatility of Welsh politics under the new system, with small shifts in support having a significant impact on seat distribution.

Campaigns will need to adapt

Cathy Owens added: “The new system rewards efficient, geographically spread support. Parties will need to rethink their campaign strategies completely.

“There will be six types of marginal seats, and organisations that want to influence manifesto pledges will need to engage far more strategically than before.”

Cavendish says the Senedd Seat Projector offers a unique insight into the upcoming election and will be an essential tool for journalists, analysts, campaigners and the public.

The tool is now live on the Cavendish website, along with a full report on Senedd reform.

Cavendish will also host a LinkedIn Live event featuring Cathy Owens and fellow director Nerys Evans, in conversation with journalist Will Hayward, to discuss the findings and what they mean for the future of Welsh politics.

Crime

Former police officer accused of making sexual remarks to women while on duty

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Court hears allegations of inappropriate behaviour during official police visits

A FORMER police officer has appeared in court accused of making sexually inappropriate remarks to women he encountered while on duty.

Luke Silver, aged 34, is alleged to have abused his position as a police officer by making unwanted and explicit comments to two women during the course of official police business.

Cardiff Crown Court heard that Silver attended one woman’s home following an incident involving her partner and took an initial statement. However, the woman told the court that Silver later returned to her address on several further occasions, during which the conversation allegedly became personal and sexual in nature.

She said the officer asked intrusive questions about her sex life and made comments about her appearance, which she found unsettling. In messages sent to a friend at the time, the woman described his behaviour as “inappropriate”, “strange” and “creepy”.

The court was told she later said she felt uncomfortable during the visits, claiming Silver behaved in an overly relaxed manner while speaking to her and made remarks that were entirely unrelated to the police matter he had attended for.

A second woman has also made allegations that Silver asked her sexually explicit questions and made comments about her body while acting in his capacity as a police officer.

Silver, formerly of Gwent Police and now living in Lamphey, Pembrokeshire, denies three counts of improper use of police powers or privileges. The alleged offences are said to have taken place in 2021.

The trial is continuing at Cardiff Crown Court.

(Image: WNS)

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Crime

Bail revoked for teenager charged with rape following Sands Nightclub allegation

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A TEENAGER charged with rape following an alleged incident at a Saundersfoot nightclub has been remanded into custody after bail was revoked at Swansea Crown Court.

Joshua Probert, aged eighteen, is accused of raping a woman at Sands Nightclub in the seaside village during the early hours of Sunday (Dec 14).

The complainant is entitled to lifelong anonymity and no details that could identify her can be reported.

Probert was initially granted bail by Llanelli Magistrates’ Court on Wednesday. However, on Thursday afternoon (Dec 18) the Crown Prosecution Service applied for a special hearing at Swansea Crown Court, arguing that the earlier bail decision had been made without all relevant information being available.

The hearing was presided over by Paul Thomas KC. After considering new material put before the court, the judge ruled that there was a risk of reoffending.

There was also discussion that the defendant was at risk in the community due to alleged threatening phone calls against him.

Bail was therefore revoked and Probert was remanded into custody.

The defendant appeared in court supported by members of his family, including his mother, stepfather and father.

Much of the detail discussed during the hearing cannot be reported for legal reasons.

Probert is due to return to court in four weeks’ time as proceedings continue.

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News

Welsh Government outlines new rights for homeowners facing estate management charges

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HOMEOWNERS living on privately managed estates in Wales are set to gain new legal protections under changes being introduced as part of the Leasehold and Freehold Reform Act 2024, the Welsh Government has said.

In a written statement published on Thursday (Dec 18), the Cabinet Secretary for Housing and Local Government, Jayne Bryant MS, provided an update on how the legislation will be implemented in Wales, with a particular focus on estate management charges paid by freehold homeowners.

Until now, homeowners on privately managed estates have often faced unclear or high bills for maintenance and services, with limited ability to obtain information or challenge costs. Once fully implemented, Part 5 of the Act is intended to address those concerns.

New powers for homeowners

Under the reforms, homeowners will be given the right to challenge the reasonableness of estate management charges for the first time. Estate managers will also be required to provide clearer information about the services being paid for through those charges.

In cases where estate management has failed, homeowners will be able to apply to a tribunal for a substitute manager to be appointed. The Act will also require estate managers to publish details of any administration charges in advance, where payment is expected.

Jayne Bryant said the changes would bring “significant new rights and protections” for homeowners affected by estate management fees.

Welsh and UK consultations

Responsibility for introducing the necessary secondary legislation is shared between the Welsh and UK Governments. While many of the powers rest with UK Ministers, Welsh Ministers are responsible for rules relating to the publication of administration charges in Wales.

The Welsh Government has confirmed it is working alongside UK counterparts to ensure both consultations are launched at the same time, allowing homeowners and stakeholders to consider the full set of proposals together.

Homeowners are being encouraged to respond to both the Welsh Government consultation on administration charges and the UK Government consultation on the wider estate management regime.

The consultations are now open and form part of the process to bring the new protections into force.

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