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Are the traditional parties in Wales underestimating Reform UK?

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By-election wins, surging polls and a reshaped Senedd system fuel Reform’s rapid rise

REFORM UK is no longer a fringe force in Welsh politics. With polling surges, a local by-election victory, and a favourable new voting system set to reshape the Senedd in 2026, the party is rapidly gaining traction—and some believe traditional parties are failing to grasp the scale of its momentum.

On the rise: Reform in Wales

A May 2025 YouGov/ITV Wales poll placed Reform UK second in Wales with 25% of the projected vote—just behind Plaid Cymru on 30%, and well ahead of Labour on 18%. That number is a stark decline: Labour won a 36% regional vote in 2021, making its current standing half of its previous share.

Disillusionment among Labour voters is evident. Only 40% of those who backed Labour in the 2024 UK general election currently intend to do so for the next Senedd election, with substantial numbers shifting to Plaid Cymru (24%), Liberal Democrats (8%), Reform UK (5%), and Greens (4%).

Local Shifts and Breakthroughs

Michelle Beer has been elected as Carmarthenshire’s first Reform councillor (Image: Reform)

On May 29, Reform achieved a breakthrough when Michelle Beer won the Lliedi ward by-election in Llanelli—becoming the party’s first elected councillor in Carmarthenshire. In a ward long seen as Labour territory, the win signalled a dramatic shift.

Reform volunteers preparing election materials in Carmarthenshire (Image: Facebook)

That momentum continued days earlier in Pembrokeshire, when Scott Thorley, a former Reform candidate, was co-opted onto Haverfordwest Town Council. His appointment ignited local opposition from campaigners concerned about Reform’s stance on the Anti-racist Wales Action Plan (AWAP).

The AWAP Dispute and Political Fallout

Scott Thorley’s co-option onto Haverfordwest Town Council has sparked a petition (Image: Supplied)

Reform UK has openly opposed the AWAP, criticising its focus on identity-based policies, such as increased grants for ethnic minority student teachers and cultural accommodation in public spaces. Critics say these measures undermine meritocracy and divide communities.

After Thorley’s co-option, political graffiti at Withybush Retail Park—featuring slogans like “VOTE REFORM” and “GOD SAVE US”—only intensified debate. Thorley swiftly condemned the graffiti, calling it “vandalism, plain and simple,” and defended the party’s intentions.

“As I have been invited to help on the anti‑racist action plan … I’m really confused by their comments. … Politics is about talking and helping people. … stop acting like stroppy teenagers.”
— Scott Thorley, Town Councillor, speaking to The Pembrokeshire Herald

Leadership turbulence and image strategy
Reform has also faced internal turbulence. Chairman Zia Yusuf, a practising Muslim, resigned on June 5, citing exhaustion and policy disagreements—particularly over a proposed burka ban—but reversed that decision just two days later. He returned to lead a new strategy unit focused on governance, fundraising, and outreach. His continued presence is seen as key to diversifying Reform’s image and countering claims of intolerance.

Farage, culture wars, and language policy

Nigel Farage: Wants to scrap Welsh Language targets and identity-based policymaking

At the helm, Nigel Farage has declared Wales a top priority, urging voters to back ‘real change’. He promised to scrap policies such as the 20mph default speed limit, the “Nation of Sanctuary” scheme, and the Welsh Government’s goal of one million Welsh speakers by 2050—labelled by Reform as cultural overreach.

While Farage offered limited detail on his opposition to the Welsh-language target, his position aligns with a broader opposition to identity-based policymaking.

Even Plaid warns: “Reform could win”

The growing momentum behind Reform UK has not gone unnoticed by its political opponents. Speaking at the party’s Spring conference in Llandudno, Plaid Cymru’s Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts warned party members that Reform could become the largest party in the Senedd if they are not taken seriously.

“If we—Plaid Cymru—do not provide solutions to Labour’s failings, there is something worse waiting in the wings to take their place,” she said.

“If we do not take this threat seriously, they could become the biggest party in the Senedd—our national parliament. If that happens, it would be a disaster for Wales. This must galvanise us.”

Saville Roberts accused Reform of thriving on division and warned that the party would seek to privatise the NHS, strip away workers’ rights, and undermine Welsh identity and the language.

Pushback from Welsh leaders

Welsh Labour’s First Minister Mark Drakeford condemned the proposal to remove the language goal, asserting that the Welsh language “belongs to us all” and should be defended from external political interference. Plaid Cymru MS Llŷr Gruffydd dismissed Farage’s claims as “empty soundbites” and accused him of “railing against Welsh culture and identity” to advance his own agenda.

Labour’s collapse in its historical heartlands is resonating at the grassroots. The Barn Cymru poll confirms their support is now the lowest since devolution began, under 20%. Meanwhile, local expressions of discontent are growing, with public services—especially in rural and post-industrial areas—seen as deteriorating, boosting calls for change.

A once-unshakeable Labour dominance is cracking. With Plaid Cymru and Reform UK capitalising on voter fatigue, policy stumbles, and identity politics backlash, Wales is entering a new era of volatility. As the Senedd moves to proportional representation, the question isn’t whether Reform will take seats, but whether Labour has already ceded too much ground.

 

Local Government

Poverty summit highlights support efforts across Pembrokeshire

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A SUMMIT bringing together key organisations from across Pembrokeshire has highlighted both the scale of local poverty and the work underway to support vulnerable communities.

Around 100 representatives attended Pembrokeshire County Council’s third Tackling Poverty Summit on Thursday (Mar 13), including local authority officers, third sector groups, and national bodies such as the Bevan Foundation.

The event aimed to shine a light on the key challenges facing the county, while strengthening collaboration and identifying practical ways to deliver support where it is most needed.

Left to right: James White, Sinead Henehan, Gemma Baker, Steffan Evans, Sarah Hughes, Geraldine Murphy, Sophie Buckley.

Focus on collaboration

A strong theme throughout the day was the importance of joined-up working. Discussions around issues such as food poverty and the ‘Words to Action’ project highlighted how better alignment of services and resources can deliver more effective and sustainable support.

Dr Steffan Evans, Chief Executive of the Bevan Foundation, delivered the keynote address, providing national context on poverty in Wales alongside detailed insight into local data. He outlined where targeted action could have the greatest long-term impact in building a more prosperous county.

Workshops, facilitated by Sophie Buckley of PAVS, also marked the start of a review of the county’s Tackling Poverty Strategy. First published in 2023, the strategy is now being reassessed to ensure it reflects current challenges.

Attendees were invited to reflect on progress made to date while also identifying gaps and proposing new ideas to strengthen future action.

Targeted support delivering results

The summit also highlighted practical initiatives already making a difference. In particular, the LIFT (Low Income Family Tracker) pilot has helped identify households missing out on financial support.

Over the past six months, the scheme has generated more than £300,000 in additional income for local families by connecting them with benefits and assistance they were entitled to but not receiving.

Organisers said the results demonstrate the value of a proactive, targeted approach to income maximisation.

Leaders stress ongoing challenge

Cllr Marc Tierney, the council’s anti-poverty champion and Cabinet Member for Young People, Communities and the Wellbeing of Future Generations, said: “What we learned at the summit is that the causes of poverty are complex and remain a challenge, particularly for young people and their families.

“The solutions are complex too and must involve all levels of government doing all they can to support those most in need.

“Pembrokeshire has made tackling poverty a priority, working with the third sector to focus our efforts on where we can make a real difference locally. That work continues, with a strengthened resolve to respond to the experiences of local people and shape what we do next.”

James White, Head of Engagement, Performance and Community, added: “This was Pembrokeshire’s third annual summit, and it is clearly becoming a firm fixture in the calendar.

“The discussions will help inform the refresh of our poverty strategy later this year. Key themes included income maximisation, early intervention, support for families, and making services easier to access.

“Thank you to everyone who attended and to those working year-round to tackle poverty in Pembrokeshire.”

 

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Health

RCN Wales appoints Nicola Williams as Executive Director

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NICOLA WILLIAMS will take up the role in April, bringing more than three decades of experience in nursing and senior leadership.

The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) has announced the appointment of Nicola Williams as its new Executive Director for Wales.

She joins the organisation from Velindre University NHS Trust, where she currently serves as Executive Director for Nursing, Allied Health Professionals and Health Care Scientists. With 38 years of experience in nursing and more than six years at executive board level, she is widely recognised across NHS Wales for her work in improving patient outcomes.

A highly experienced strategic leader, Williams has worked across a wide range of clinical and organisational settings. She has led major transformation programmes, strengthened national clinical leadership networks and championed innovation and evidence-based improvements in care. Her work has contributed to changes adopted across Wales and has been recognised with national awards.

Speaking about her appointment, Nicola Williams said: “I feel privileged to be appointed as Executive Director of RCN Wales. I’m a proud nurse, passionate about patient safety and improving care standards.

“Delivering the best care is only possible when nursing staff are supported to work in safe, inclusive environments. I will stand alongside members and their patients.

“Nursing staff are the backbone of health and care. I am determined to support our members across Wales, wherever they work, to meet the challenges ahead and shape the future of our profession.

“I look forward to meeting members across Wales and ensuring our work is informed by their experiences and expertise.”

In her new role, Williams will lead the RCN’s work in Wales and provide strategic leadership across key priority areas spanning the UK.

She succeeds Helen Whyley, who has held the position since February 2019 and will move into a new role as Director of Service Innovation at the RCN.

 

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MS urges residents to have their say on Withyhedge landfill consultation

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SENEDD Member Paul Davies is urging residents across Pembrokeshire to have their say as a public consultation continues on proposals relating to the Withyhedge landfill site near Haverfordwest.

Natural Resources Wales (NRW) has launched a consultation on a proposed permit variation submitted by Resources Management UK Ltd, the operator of the site. If approved, the changes could allow the landfill to accept additional waste.

The consultation gives residents and stakeholders the opportunity to submit their views before NRW makes a final decision. It will remain open until Thursday (Mar 26).

The proposed changes include revised final restoration levels, updates to the management and monitoring of groundwater, surface water and leachate, and the addition of 50,000 tonnes of waste soils per year for restoration work under a new waste recovery activity. The application also seeks to consolidate and modernise the existing permit, including a review of current improvement and pre-operational conditions.

The Preseli Pembrokeshire MS said it was vital that local people take the opportunity to share their concerns and experiences as part of the consultation process.

Mr Davies has previously raised concerns about the environmental performance of the site, noting that the operator was ranked the worst performing permitted installation in Wales in both 2023 and 2024.

He has also written to the Welsh Government expressing concern about the proposal, arguing that Pembrokeshire must not become a dumping ground for waste.

To ensure residents living closest to the landfill are aware of the consultation, Mr Davies is writing directly to households in surrounding communities, encouraging them to take part before the deadline.

Mr Davies said: “This consultation is an important opportunity for residents to make their views known about the future of the Withyhedge landfill site.

“There have been ongoing concerns about the site’s environmental performance and its impact on local communities, and it’s vital that Natural Resources Wales hears directly from the people who live in the area.

“I have made clear to the Welsh Government that I believe the site should be looking towards closure rather than expansion, and that Pembrokeshire must not become a dumping ground for waste.

“I would strongly encourage residents to take part in the consultation and submit their views before the deadline.”

Residents can submit their views directly to Natural Resources Wales before the consultation closes on Thursday (Mar 26). NRW will consider all responses before making a final decision on whether the permit variation should be approved.

 

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