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Are the traditional parties in Wales underestimating Reform UK?

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By-election wins, surging polls and a reshaped Senedd system fuel Reform’s rapid rise

REFORM UK is no longer a fringe force in Welsh politics. With polling surges, a local by-election victory, and a favourable new voting system set to reshape the Senedd in 2026, the party is rapidly gaining traction—and some believe traditional parties are failing to grasp the scale of its momentum.

On the rise: Reform in Wales

A May 2025 YouGov/ITV Wales poll placed Reform UK second in Wales with 25% of the projected vote—just behind Plaid Cymru on 30%, and well ahead of Labour on 18%. That number is a stark decline: Labour won a 36% regional vote in 2021, making its current standing half of its previous share.

Disillusionment among Labour voters is evident. Only 40% of those who backed Labour in the 2024 UK general election currently intend to do so for the next Senedd election, with substantial numbers shifting to Plaid Cymru (24%), Liberal Democrats (8%), Reform UK (5%), and Greens (4%).

Local Shifts and Breakthroughs

Michelle Beer has been elected as Carmarthenshire’s first Reform councillor (Image: Reform)

On May 29, Reform achieved a breakthrough when Michelle Beer won the Lliedi ward by-election in Llanelli—becoming the party’s first elected councillor in Carmarthenshire. In a ward long seen as Labour territory, the win signalled a dramatic shift.

Reform volunteers preparing election materials in Carmarthenshire (Image: Facebook)

That momentum continued days earlier in Pembrokeshire, when Scott Thorley, a former Reform candidate, was co-opted onto Haverfordwest Town Council. His appointment ignited local opposition from campaigners concerned about Reform’s stance on the Anti-racist Wales Action Plan (AWAP).

The AWAP Dispute and Political Fallout

Scott Thorley’s co-option onto Haverfordwest Town Council has sparked a petition (Image: Supplied)

Reform UK has openly opposed the AWAP, criticising its focus on identity-based policies, such as increased grants for ethnic minority student teachers and cultural accommodation in public spaces. Critics say these measures undermine meritocracy and divide communities.

After Thorley’s co-option, political graffiti at Withybush Retail Park—featuring slogans like “VOTE REFORM” and “GOD SAVE US”—only intensified debate. Thorley swiftly condemned the graffiti, calling it “vandalism, plain and simple,” and defended the party’s intentions.

“As I have been invited to help on the anti‑racist action plan … I’m really confused by their comments. … Politics is about talking and helping people. … stop acting like stroppy teenagers.”
— Scott Thorley, Town Councillor, speaking to The Pembrokeshire Herald

Leadership turbulence and image strategy
Reform has also faced internal turbulence. Chairman Zia Yusuf, a practising Muslim, resigned on June 5, citing exhaustion and policy disagreements—particularly over a proposed burka ban—but reversed that decision just two days later. He returned to lead a new strategy unit focused on governance, fundraising, and outreach. His continued presence is seen as key to diversifying Reform’s image and countering claims of intolerance.

Farage, culture wars, and language policy

Nigel Farage: Wants to scrap Welsh Language targets and identity-based policymaking

At the helm, Nigel Farage has declared Wales a top priority, urging voters to back ‘real change’. He promised to scrap policies such as the 20mph default speed limit, the “Nation of Sanctuary” scheme, and the Welsh Government’s goal of one million Welsh speakers by 2050—labelled by Reform as cultural overreach.

While Farage offered limited detail on his opposition to the Welsh-language target, his position aligns with a broader opposition to identity-based policymaking.

Even Plaid warns: “Reform could win”

The growing momentum behind Reform UK has not gone unnoticed by its political opponents. Speaking at the party’s Spring conference in Llandudno, Plaid Cymru’s Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts warned party members that Reform could become the largest party in the Senedd if they are not taken seriously.

“If we—Plaid Cymru—do not provide solutions to Labour’s failings, there is something worse waiting in the wings to take their place,” she said.

“If we do not take this threat seriously, they could become the biggest party in the Senedd—our national parliament. If that happens, it would be a disaster for Wales. This must galvanise us.”

Saville Roberts accused Reform of thriving on division and warned that the party would seek to privatise the NHS, strip away workers’ rights, and undermine Welsh identity and the language.

Pushback from Welsh leaders

Welsh Labour’s First Minister Mark Drakeford condemned the proposal to remove the language goal, asserting that the Welsh language “belongs to us all” and should be defended from external political interference. Plaid Cymru MS Llŷr Gruffydd dismissed Farage’s claims as “empty soundbites” and accused him of “railing against Welsh culture and identity” to advance his own agenda.

Labour’s collapse in its historical heartlands is resonating at the grassroots. The Barn Cymru poll confirms their support is now the lowest since devolution began, under 20%. Meanwhile, local expressions of discontent are growing, with public services—especially in rural and post-industrial areas—seen as deteriorating, boosting calls for change.

A once-unshakeable Labour dominance is cracking. With Plaid Cymru and Reform UK capitalising on voter fatigue, policy stumbles, and identity politics backlash, Wales is entering a new era of volatility. As the Senedd moves to proportional representation, the question isn’t whether Reform will take seats, but whether Labour has already ceded too much ground.

Farming

Basic Payment Scheme 2025 balance paid to 95% of Welsh farmers

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Final year of BPS as transition to Sustainable Farming Scheme begins

The WELSH Government says more than ninety-five per cent of farm businesses have now received their full or balance payment under the final year of the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS), ahead of the introduction of the new Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS) in 2026.

Announcing the update on Friday (Dec 12), Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Climate Change and Rural Affairs, Huw Irranca-Davies, confirmed that over 15,400 Welsh farm businesses have been paid £68.7m. This comes on top of the £160m issued in BPS advance payments since 14 October.

Final round of BPS payments

The Basic Payment Scheme, which has been the backbone of farm support in Wales for a decade, provides direct income support to help farmers plan and manage their businesses. BPS 2025 marks the last year in which full BPS payments will be made before the scheme begins to be phased out.

The Cabinet Secretary said officials would “continue to process the outstanding BPS 2025 claims as soon as possible,” adding that all but the most complex cases should be completed by 30 June 2026.

Payments issued today represent the main balance due to farmers following earlier advances, giving many businesses the cash flow they need during the quieter winter period—traditionally a challenging time in the agricultural calendar.

Shift to Sustainable Farming Scheme in 2026

From 1 January 2026, the Welsh Government will begin rolling out the Sustainable Farming Scheme, a major reform to how agricultural support is delivered. The SFS will reward farmers for environmental outcomes such as habitat management, carbon reduction and biodiversity improvements, alongside continued food production.

The government has argued that the new scheme is essential to meeting Wales’ climate and nature targets while ensuring long-term resilience in the sector. However, the transition has been closely watched by farming unions, who have raised concerns about the administrative burden, income stability, and the speed at which BPS is being phased out.

Mr Irranca-Davies reaffirmed the government’s stance, saying: “This government is steadfastly committed to supporting Welsh farmers to sustainably produce quality food. This is demonstrated today in our payment of the BPS 2025 balance payments and will continue throughout the transition period.”

Sector reaction

Farming unions are expected to scrutinise the detail of today’s announcement, particularly around remaining unpaid cases. Last year, late payments led to frustration in parts of the sector, with unions calling for greater certainty as the industry faces rising input costs, supply chain pressures and continued market volatility.

The move to the SFS remains one of the most significant agricultural policy changes in Wales since devolution. Ministers insist the shift is designed to support both food production and environmental stewardship, while critics warn the transition must not undermine farm viability—especially for family-run livestock farms that dominate rural areas such as Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire.

What happens next

Farmers still awaiting their BPS 2025 balance will continue to be processed “as soon as possible”, the Welsh Government said. Officials will also publish updated guidance on the Sustainable Farming Scheme ahead of its launch.

The coming year will therefore become a pivotal moment for Welsh agriculture, as the long-standing BPS framework—which provided over £200m annually to Welsh farmers—makes way for a new results-based model that will shape the industry for decades to come.

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Improved train timetable launches across Wales

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Extra services, later trains and boosted Sunday routes as £800m rail investment takes effect

An improved train timetable has come into force across Wales today (Sunday, 14 December), with Transport for Wales (TfW) introducing more frequent services, stronger connections and additional late-night trains on key routes.

The winter timetable update brings one of the most substantial uplifts in recent years on the Wales and Borders network, forming part of the Welsh Government’s ongoing £800 million investment in brand-new rolling stock and reliability improvements.

More trains and later journeys

Among the upgrades, passengers will see:

  • A new hourly additional service between Chester and Wrexham, effectively doubling the frequency on one of the region’s busiest commuter corridors.
  • An extra train in each direction every day on the Heart of Wales line between Swansea and Shrewsbury.
  • Three later last trains from Cardiff to Treherbert, Aberdare and Merthyr Tydfil, supporting shift workers and the night-time economy.
  • A new hourly Sunday service on the Coryton line in Cardiff.

Cabinet Secretary for Transport and North Wales, Ken Skates, said improved connectivity was “absolutely vital” for economic growth and passenger confidence.

“These changes will make a real difference to customers, who will benefit from more services and greater connectivity,” he said. “This has been made possible by our £800m investment in brand-new trains for the Wales and Borders network.

“We will see the doubling of trains between Wrexham and Chester and a later service from the capital to valley communities. In South Wales, people will continue to benefit from simpler, fairer fares through TfW’s Pay As You Go service, and its forthcoming introduction in North Wales will help even more passengers access easy, transparent pricing.”

Full details of the updated timetable are available at: tfw.wales/service-status/timetables

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Wrecked guard boat still under watch off north Pembrokeshire coast

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Tidal changes monitored after dramatic early-morning rescue

A GUARD VESSEL that ran aground off the north Pembrokeshire coast in the early hours of Thursday morning (Dec 11) remains under close observation as tides continue to shift.

The Resolute, a 24-metre guard boat understood to be working for an offshore wind project off the Irish coast, had been sheltering in worsening weather when she was pushed onto rocks near Aber Hywel, Dinas, shortly after 3:25am.

Four crew members were onboard when the vessel grounded in rough seas and a strong southerly wind.

Major rescue effort launched

The crew issued an emergency alert, prompting a full multi-agency response.
A coastguard rescue helicopter, both Fishguard RNLI lifeboats, and coastguard teams from Fishguard and St Davids were sent to the scene.

Turbulent air made a winch rescue impossible and Fishguard’s all-weather lifeboat was unable to get close due to cliffs and submerged hazards. The inshore lifeboat was instead deployed to attempt a transfer in extremely challenging conditions.

During the evacuation, the third crew member descending to the vessel’s life raft slipped, fell into the water and was swept away. Speaking afterwards, RNLI crew member Cedwyn Rogers said the team immediately switched into “hyper-focused” mode as training took over.

Despite the casualty drifting, helm Warren Bean — a volunteer with more than 30 years’ RNLI experience — manoeuvred the lifeboat alongside, allowing crew to haul the man to safety. The remaining crew member was then retrieved, and all four were taken aboard the all-weather lifeboat and brought ashore to Fishguard.

All rescue units were later stood down.

Vessel still stranded and taking on water

The Herald understands that the Resolute remained aground on the rocks yesterday and was taking on water. The crew were later assisted back onboard by a local fisherman to assess damage on behalf of the vessel’s operators.

Management representatives from Ireland were due to arrive to draw up a recovery plan, including arrangements to remove fuel to prevent any potential environmental impact.

Further inspections have been taking place today as the team evaluates the next steps.

Coastguard statement

A spokesperson for HM Coastguard said: “At 3.28am on Thursday morning, HM Coastguard was made aware of a vessel with four persons onboard aground on rocks at Fishguard, Pembrokeshire. RNLI lifeboats and coastguard rescue teams from Fishguard and St Davids were sent to the scene. The four people aboard were rescued by lifeboat, and the helicopter was stood down. The vessel, which is still aground, is being monitored as tidal conditions change.”

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