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Are the traditional parties in Wales underestimating Reform UK?

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By-election wins, surging polls and a reshaped Senedd system fuel Reform’s rapid rise

REFORM UK is no longer a fringe force in Welsh politics. With polling surges, a local by-election victory, and a favourable new voting system set to reshape the Senedd in 2026, the party is rapidly gaining traction—and some believe traditional parties are failing to grasp the scale of its momentum.

On the rise: Reform in Wales

A May 2025 YouGov/ITV Wales poll placed Reform UK second in Wales with 25% of the projected vote—just behind Plaid Cymru on 30%, and well ahead of Labour on 18%. That number is a stark decline: Labour won a 36% regional vote in 2021, making its current standing half of its previous share.

Disillusionment among Labour voters is evident. Only 40% of those who backed Labour in the 2024 UK general election currently intend to do so for the next Senedd election, with substantial numbers shifting to Plaid Cymru (24%), Liberal Democrats (8%), Reform UK (5%), and Greens (4%).

Local Shifts and Breakthroughs

Michelle Beer has been elected as Carmarthenshire’s first Reform councillor (Image: Reform)

On May 29, Reform achieved a breakthrough when Michelle Beer won the Lliedi ward by-election in Llanelli—becoming the party’s first elected councillor in Carmarthenshire. In a ward long seen as Labour territory, the win signalled a dramatic shift.

Reform volunteers preparing election materials in Carmarthenshire (Image: Facebook)

That momentum continued days earlier in Pembrokeshire, when Scott Thorley, a former Reform candidate, was co-opted onto Haverfordwest Town Council. His appointment ignited local opposition from campaigners concerned about Reform’s stance on the Anti-racist Wales Action Plan (AWAP).

The AWAP Dispute and Political Fallout

Scott Thorley’s co-option onto Haverfordwest Town Council has sparked a petition (Image: Supplied)

Reform UK has openly opposed the AWAP, criticising its focus on identity-based policies, such as increased grants for ethnic minority student teachers and cultural accommodation in public spaces. Critics say these measures undermine meritocracy and divide communities.

After Thorley’s co-option, political graffiti at Withybush Retail Park—featuring slogans like “VOTE REFORM” and “GOD SAVE US”—only intensified debate. Thorley swiftly condemned the graffiti, calling it “vandalism, plain and simple,” and defended the party’s intentions.

“As I have been invited to help on the anti‑racist action plan … I’m really confused by their comments. … Politics is about talking and helping people. … stop acting like stroppy teenagers.”
— Scott Thorley, Town Councillor, speaking to The Pembrokeshire Herald

Leadership turbulence and image strategy
Reform has also faced internal turbulence. Chairman Zia Yusuf, a practising Muslim, resigned on June 5, citing exhaustion and policy disagreements—particularly over a proposed burka ban—but reversed that decision just two days later. He returned to lead a new strategy unit focused on governance, fundraising, and outreach. His continued presence is seen as key to diversifying Reform’s image and countering claims of intolerance.

Farage, culture wars, and language policy

Nigel Farage: Wants to scrap Welsh Language targets and identity-based policymaking

At the helm, Nigel Farage has declared Wales a top priority, urging voters to back ‘real change’. He promised to scrap policies such as the 20mph default speed limit, the “Nation of Sanctuary” scheme, and the Welsh Government’s goal of one million Welsh speakers by 2050—labelled by Reform as cultural overreach.

While Farage offered limited detail on his opposition to the Welsh-language target, his position aligns with a broader opposition to identity-based policymaking.

Even Plaid warns: “Reform could win”

The growing momentum behind Reform UK has not gone unnoticed by its political opponents. Speaking at the party’s Spring conference in Llandudno, Plaid Cymru’s Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts warned party members that Reform could become the largest party in the Senedd if they are not taken seriously.

“If we—Plaid Cymru—do not provide solutions to Labour’s failings, there is something worse waiting in the wings to take their place,” she said.

“If we do not take this threat seriously, they could become the biggest party in the Senedd—our national parliament. If that happens, it would be a disaster for Wales. This must galvanise us.”

Saville Roberts accused Reform of thriving on division and warned that the party would seek to privatise the NHS, strip away workers’ rights, and undermine Welsh identity and the language.

Pushback from Welsh leaders

Welsh Labour’s First Minister Mark Drakeford condemned the proposal to remove the language goal, asserting that the Welsh language “belongs to us all” and should be defended from external political interference. Plaid Cymru MS Llŷr Gruffydd dismissed Farage’s claims as “empty soundbites” and accused him of “railing against Welsh culture and identity” to advance his own agenda.

Labour’s collapse in its historical heartlands is resonating at the grassroots. The Barn Cymru poll confirms their support is now the lowest since devolution began, under 20%. Meanwhile, local expressions of discontent are growing, with public services—especially in rural and post-industrial areas—seen as deteriorating, boosting calls for change.

A once-unshakeable Labour dominance is cracking. With Plaid Cymru and Reform UK capitalising on voter fatigue, policy stumbles, and identity politics backlash, Wales is entering a new era of volatility. As the Senedd moves to proportional representation, the question isn’t whether Reform will take seats, but whether Labour has already ceded too much ground.

Community

Coastal footpath between Coppet Hall and Wiseman’s Bridge reopens

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Popular route restored after months of safety work following landslides

THE COASTAL footpath between Coppet Hall and Wiseman’s Bridge has officially reopened—just in time for the warm weather and summer visitors.

The scenic route, which is a favourite among walkers and cyclists, had been closed for several months due to a series of landslides that made the path unsafe. Pembrokeshire County Council confirmed on Wednesday (June 19) that the stretch has now reopened following major safety repairs.

The council praised the efforts of its teams and contractors who “worked tirelessly” to make the route safe again. Temporary fencing, slope stabilisation and other remedial work has been completed to ensure the safety of all users.

A spokesperson for the local authority said: “Thanks to everyone for their patience while the important safety work was carried out over the last few months. And a big thank you to the council teams and contractors who’ve worked so hard to get the path open again.”

The reopening has been welcomed by residents, local businesses and tourism operators in the area, who rely on the popular path for footfall during the holiday season.

A full press release and site photographs are expected in due course.

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Community

Landfill row escalates as campaigners urge NRW to reject Withyhedge permit expansion

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Fears over asbestos, pollution and criminal case against landfill owner spark calls for action

A PEMBROKESHIRE campaigner has submitted a formal objection to Natural Resources Wales (NRW) over a proposed expansion of the Withyhedge landfill site, warning that allowing more waste to be dumped would be “a danger to public health.”

Colin Barnett, a resident of Spittal and a leading member of the ‘Stop the Stink’ campaign, wrote to NRW’s permitting consultations team on Wednesday (June 19), urging them to reject a permit variation application submitted by Resources Management UK Ltd (RML).

The company is seeking to increase the volume of “waste soil” allowed at the controversial site in Rudbaxton, near Haverfordwest — a proposal that has provoked fierce backlash from local residents who say they have suffered over 18 months of ongoing odour and air pollution.

Withyhedge PR site visit in April 2025 (Image: Supplied)

Criminal proceedings pending

In his letter, Mr Barnett points to the criminal proceedings currently pending against RML’s owner, David Neal, who is due in court in September on alleged environmental offences.

He states: “It is highly inappropriate for NRW to consider any permit variation while serious legal proceedings are pending… Doing so risks further undermining public confidence in environmental regulation and due process.”

Mr Barnett says this is not the first time the company has faced prosecution for environmental breaches, calling into question their fitness to operate and expand such a facility.

‘18 months of pollution with no enforcement’

Local residents living near the landfill site have repeatedly complained about noxious gases and foul odours, with some families forced to stay indoors or keep windows shut. NRW has acknowledged receiving complaints and confirmed it is conducting an ongoing investigation.

But campaigners say little action has been taken.

“There has been no criminal enforcement action or meaningful consequences for the operator, despite the scale and duration of the pollution,” Mr Barnett claims. “Allowing increased waste volumes under these circumstances would significantly increase the risk of further environmental harm.”

He adds that the public has lost faith in NRW’s ability to regulate the site, and described the agency’s approach as a “silo system” which allows compliance issues to be assessed in isolation, rather than as part of a broader pattern of misconduct.

Questions over asbestos and contaminated soil

The site is one of only two landfill sites in Wales currently licensed to dispose of asbestos — a fact Mr Barnett says is under-communicated to the public. He warns that NRW’s failure to stop other pollution may mean it cannot be trusted to manage the risks associated with asbestos fibres or contaminated soil.

He also raises concern over the term “waste soil,” saying it is too vague and potentially misleading. “Waste soil can include material contaminated with heavy metals and chemicals,” he says. “It has not been properly explained to the public what is really being dumped at Withyhedge.”

Planning before permitting?

In a further twist, Mr Barnett questions why NRW is consulting on the permit variation before Pembrokeshire County Council has made a planning decision to allow the site’s height — and therefore its capacity — to be increased.

“Are there backroom agreements already in place?” he asks. “Or is it an expectation within NRW that Pembrokeshire County Council will pass anything that is needed to get the permit variation through?”

He accuses NRW of “prioritising a company with a criminal history above the wellbeing of the public” and suggests this could be seen as misconduct in public office.

Campaign gathers support

The ‘Stop the Stink’ campaign now has more than 2,500 members, and pressure is mounting on NRW to either reject the application outright or delay any decision until after the legal case against David Neal concludes.

In closing, Mr Barnett proposes a compromise — reducing the existing waste tonnage rather than increasing it — and calls for an independent audit of the site before any changes are approved.

The Herald has contacted Natural Resources Wales and Pembrokeshire County Council for comment.

Photo caption: Protest sign near Withyhedge Landfill Site, part of the growing public campaign (Pic: Herald)

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Business

Celtic Holiday Parks in administration as buyer sought

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Family-run firm continues trading as usual during process

CELTIC HOLIDAY PARKS, one of Pembrokeshire’s best-known tourism businesses, has entered administration.

The award-winning company, which operates three luxury holiday parks in the south of the county, continues to trade as normal while administrators seek a buyer for the business and its assets.

Three parks still open

The firm runs Noble Court Holiday Park in Narberth, Meadow House Holiday Park in Amroth, and Croft Country Park near Reynalton. All three remain open, with staff retained and bookings unaffected.

Guests and owners are being assured that holidays will go ahead as planned, and caravan and lodge owners will continue to have access to their properties unless told otherwise.

High Court appointment

The administration was formalised on 27 May 2025 by the High Court’s Business and Property Court under case number 000020 of 2025.

Alistair Wardell and Richard J Lewis of Grant Thornton UK LLP were appointed as joint administrators. Their office is based at 3 Callaghan Square, Cardiff, and they can be contacted via Cardiff on 029 2023 5591 or Bristol on 0117 305 7600.

Significant investment in recent years

The family-run company was founded in 2003 and has been led since its inception by managing director Huw Pendleton. Over the years, more than £6 million has been invested across the group’s three sites.

The parks offer a range of holiday options including static caravans, glamping pods, and luxury lodges with hot tubs. Additional facilities include an indoor pool, gym, restaurant and landscaped grounds at Meadow House, as well as direct access to the Pembrokeshire Coast Path.

In 2020, Celtic Holiday Parks secured a six-figure loan from HSBC as part of the UK Government’s Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS). The money was used to build 54 additional holiday homes.

Recognised for excellence

In 2022, Mr Pendleton received an award for his outstanding contribution to the UK tourism industry. The company has also received accolades such as ‘Best Caravan and Camping Park in Pembrokeshire’ and ‘Luxury Accommodation Provider of the Year – South Wales’.

Buyer invited

The Herald understands the administrators are currently in talks with interested parties and invites serious enquiries from potential buyers.

Anyone wishing to express an interest in purchasing the business or its assets is advised to contact the joint administrators without delay.

PHOTO CAPTION:

Photos: Luxury lodges and views from Meadow House (Images: Celtic Holiday Parks)

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