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Labour faces wipeout in Wales as Plaid Cymru and Reform surge

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Polls suggest Plaid and Reform could end a century of dominance

WALES could be about to experience a once-in-a-century political shift, with Labour facing the prospect of being pushed into third place at next year’s Senedd election.

For more than 100 years Labour has been the dominant force in Welsh politics. Even during the Conservative landslides of the 1980s and 1990s, Wales remained red. In the first Senedd election in 1999, Labour emerged as the largest party and has governed in Cardiff Bay ever since.

That era of dominance may now be drawing to a close.

Polls point to seismic change

Recent surveys suggest Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are neck-and-neck to become the largest group in the Senedd after May 2026. Labour, meanwhile, is slipping behind.

The figures echo results from the 2024 general election, where Reform surged across large parts of Wales, particularly in the south and along the north-east corridor, and Plaid made steady gains in traditional heartlands.

Political observers say that if these trends continue, Labour could face its worst result in Welsh history — a “wipeout” on a scale no one in the party has experienced before.

Pressure on Eluned Morgan

First Minister Eluned Morgan has been under increasing strain. Her decision to turn down an invitation to a royal banquet for Donald Trump sparked headlines she did not need, while Health Secretary Jeremy Miles’ shock decision not to contest his seat in 2026 has fuelled speculation about fractures inside her cabinet.

Morgan insists she has the right team and continues to focus on “delivery”, particularly on cutting NHS waiting times. But critics say that after 26 years in power, Labour has run out of steam. Long waiting lists, a housing crisis, and weak economic growth are all likely to feature heavily in the campaign.

One Labour source told Herald.Wales: “We know this will be the toughest election we’ve ever faced. But the Senedd was built on Labour values, and we won’t give up on them now.”

Plaid and Reform sense opportunity

Plaid Cymru believes its consistent base in Welsh-speaking areas and strong local government record gives it a platform to win. Party strategists say Plaid can position itself as a party of “Welsh solutions” at a time when voters are weary of London politics.

Reform UK, meanwhile, is riding a wave of momentum from the general election. Its pitch is blunt: an end to what it calls “failing Labour rule” and a promise to focus on cost of living pressures, energy bills and migration.

Both parties are presenting themselves as the real alternative to Labour — and both know only one can emerge on top.

Caerphilly by-election the first test

Before the main event in May, Labour faces a significant test at the Caerphilly by-election on 23 October.

The confirmed candidates are Gareth Potter (Conservatives), Anthony Cook (Gwlad), Richard Tunnicliffe (Labour), Lindsay Whittle (Plaid Cymru), Llŷr Powell (Reform UK) and Steve Aicheler (Liberal Democrats).

Traditionally a safe Labour seat, Caerphilly is now considered wide open. A defeat there would send shockwaves through Labour ranks and set the tone for the campaign ahead.

A historic turning point?

The possibility of Labour losing its dominant position in Wales would represent a historic break with the past. In 1922, Ramsay MacDonald’s Labour Party won its first general election seats in Wales. Since then, the party has been at the heart of Welsh political life, shaping the nation’s institutions and policies.

To be relegated to third place would not just be a political setback but a symbolic collapse of Labour’s century-long dominance.

Challenges for all parties

Labour is not alone in facing difficulties. The Conservatives, hammered at the 2024 general election, have yet to recover. The Liberal Democrats remain marginal in Wales despite occasional local breakthroughs. Smaller parties like Gwlad and the Greens will hope to take advantage of the new Senedd voting system but remain long shots.

For Plaid and Reform, the challenge is proving they are ready to govern. Plaid must convince voters it is more than a protest vote for Welsh identity. Reform must show it can turn national anger into practical policies for Wales.

The road to May 2026

Between now and election day, voters will have a series of opportunities to take stock — from the Caerphilly by-election in October to the UK Budget in November, which may or may not deliver extra cash for Welsh public services.

For Eluned Morgan and Welsh Labour, the months ahead will be about survival. For Plaid and Reform, it is about seizing the moment.

Whatever happens, the 2026 Senedd election is shaping up to be the most unpredictable and consequential contest in modern Welsh political history.

Crime

Swansea man dies weeks after release from troubled HMP Parc: Investigation launched

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A SWANSEA man has died just weeks after being released from HMP Parc, the Bridgend prison now at the centre of a national crisis over inmate deaths and post-release failures.

Darren Thomas, aged 52, died on 13 November 2025 — less than a month after leaving custody. The Prisons and Probation Ombudsman (PPO) has confirmed an independent investigation into his death, which is currently listed as “in progress”.

Born on 9 April 1973, Mr Thomas had been under post-release supervision following a period at HMP/YOI Parc, the G4S-run prison that recorded seventeen deaths in custody in 2024 — the highest in the UK.

His last known legal appearance was at Swansea Crown Court in October 2024, where he stood trial accused of making a threatening phone call and two counts of criminal damage. During the hearing, reported by The Pembrokeshire Herald at the time, the court heard he made threats during a heated call on 5 October 2023.

Mr Thomas denied the allegations but was found guilty on all counts. He was sentenced to a custodial term, which led to his imprisonment at HMP Parc.

Parc: A prison in breakdown

HMP Parc has faced sustained criticism throughout 2024 and 2025. A damning unannounced inspection in January found:

  • Severe self-harm incidents up 190%
  • Violence against staff up 109%
  • Synthetic drugs “easily accessible” across wings
  • Overcrowding at 108% capacity

In the first three months of 2024 alone, ten men died at Parc — part of a wider cluster of twenty PPO-investigated deaths since 2022. Six occurred within three weeks, all linked to synthetic drug use.

Leaked staff messages in 2025 exposed a culture of indifference, including one officer writing: “Let’s push him to go tomorrow so we can drop him.”

Six G4S employees have been arrested since 2023 in connection with alleged assaults and misconduct.

The danger after release

Deaths shortly after release from custody are a growing national concern. Ministry of Justice data shows 620 people died while under community supervision in 2024–2025, with 62 deaths occurring within 14 days of release.

Short sentences — common at Parc — leave little time for effective rehabilitation or release planning. Homelessness, loss of drug tolerance and untreated mental-health conditions create a high-risk environment for those newly released.

The PPO investigates all such deaths to determine whether prisons or probation failed in their duties. Reports often take 6–12 months and can lead to recommendations.

A system at breaking point

The crisis at Parc reflects wider failures across UK prisons and probation. A July 2025 House of Lords report described the service as “not fit for purpose”. More than 500 people die in custody annually, with campaigners warning that private prisons such as Parc prioritise cost-cutting over care.

The PPO investigation into the death of Darren Thomas continues.

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Crime

Woman stabbed partner in Haverfordwest before handing herself in

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A WOMAN who stabbed her partner during a drug-fuelled episode walked straight into Haverfordwest Police Station and told officers what she had done, Swansea Crown Court has heard.

Amy Woolston, 22, of Dartmouth Street in Milford Haven, arrived at the station at around 8:00pm on June 13 and said: “I stabbed my ex-partner earlier… he’s alright and he let me walk off,” prosecutor Tom Scapens told the court.

The pair had taken acid together earlier in the day, and Woolston claimed she believed she could feel “stab marks in her back” before the incident.

Police find victim with four wounds

Officers went to the victim’s home to check on him. He was not there at first, but returned shortly afterwards. He appeared sober and told police: “Just a couple of things,” before pointing to injuries on his back.

He had three stab or puncture wounds to his back and another to his bicep.

The victim said that when he arrived home from the shop, Woolston was acting “a bit shifty”. After asking if she was alright, she grabbed something from the windowsill — described as either a knife or a shard of glass — and stabbed him.

He told officers he had “had worse from her before”, did not support a prosecution, and refused to go to hospital.

Defendant has long history of violence

Woolston pleaded guilty to unlawful wounding. The court heard she had amassed 20 previous convictions from 10 court appearances, including assaults, battery, and offences against emergency workers.

Defending, Dyfed Thomas said Woolston had longstanding mental health problems and had been off medication prescribed for paranoid schizophrenia at the time.
“She’s had a difficult upbringing,” he added, saying she was remorseful and now compliant with treatment.

Woolston was jailed for 12 months, but the court heard she has already served the equivalent time on remand and will be released imminently on a 12-month licence.

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News

BBC apologises to Herald’s editor for inaccurate story

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THE BBC has issued a formal apology and amended a six-year-old article written by BBC Wales Business Correspondent Huw Thomas after its Executive Complaints Unit ruled that the original headline and wording gave an “incorrect impression” that Herald editor Tom Sinclair was personally liable for tens of thousands of pounds in debt.

The 2019 report, originally headlined “Herald newspaper editor Tom Sinclair has £70,000 debts”, has now been changed.

The ECU found: “The wording of the article and its headline could have led readers to form the incorrect impression that the debt was Mr Sinclair’s personal responsibility… In that respect the article failed to meet the BBC’s standards of due accuracy.”

Mr Sinclair said: “I’m grateful to the ECU for the apology and for correcting the personal-liability impression that caused real harm for six years. However, the article still links the debts to ‘the group which publishes The Herald’ when in fact they related to printing companies that were dissolved two years before the Herald was founded in 2013. I have asked the BBC to add that final clarification so the record is completely accurate.”

A formal apology and correction of this kind from the BBC is extremely rare, especially for a story more than six years old. 

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