Polls suggest Plaid and Reform could end a century of dominance

WALES could be about to experience a once-in-a-century political shift, with Labour facing the prospect of being pushed into third place at next year’s Senedd election.

For more than 100 years Labour has been the dominant force in Welsh politics. Even during the Conservative landslides of the 1980s and 1990s, Wales remained red. In the first Senedd election in 1999, Labour emerged as the largest party and has governed in Cardiff Bay ever since.

That era of dominance may now be drawing to a close.

Polls point to seismic change

Recent surveys suggest Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are neck-and-neck to become the largest group in the Senedd after May 2026. Labour, meanwhile, is slipping behind.

The figures echo results from the 2024 general election, where Reform surged across large parts of Wales, particularly in the south and along the north-east corridor, and Plaid made steady gains in traditional heartlands.

Political observers say that if these trends continue, Labour could face its worst result in Welsh history — a “wipeout” on a scale no one in the party has experienced before.

Pressure on Eluned Morgan

First Minister Eluned Morgan has been under increasing strain. Her decision to turn down an invitation to a royal banquet for Donald Trump sparked headlines she did not need, while Health Secretary Jeremy Miles’ shock decision not to contest his seat in 2026 has fuelled speculation about fractures inside her cabinet.

Morgan insists she has the right team and continues to focus on “delivery”, particularly on cutting NHS waiting times. But critics say that after 26 years in power, Labour has run out of steam. Long waiting lists, a housing crisis, and weak economic growth are all likely to feature heavily in the campaign.

One Labour source told Herald.Wales: “We know this will be the toughest election we’ve ever faced. But the Senedd was built on Labour values, and we won’t give up on them now.”

Plaid and Reform sense opportunity

Plaid Cymru believes its consistent base in Welsh-speaking areas and strong local government record gives it a platform to win. Party strategists say Plaid can position itself as a party of “Welsh solutions” at a time when voters are weary of London politics.

Reform UK, meanwhile, is riding a wave of momentum from the general election. Its pitch is blunt: an end to what it calls “failing Labour rule” and a promise to focus on cost of living pressures, energy bills and migration.

Both parties are presenting themselves as the real alternative to Labour — and both know only one can emerge on top.

Caerphilly by-election the first test

Before the main event in May, Labour faces a significant test at the Caerphilly by-election on 23 October.

The confirmed candidates are Gareth Potter (Conservatives), Anthony Cook (Gwlad), Richard Tunnicliffe (Labour), Lindsay Whittle (Plaid Cymru), Llŷr Powell (Reform UK) and Steve Aicheler (Liberal Democrats).

Traditionally a safe Labour seat, Caerphilly is now considered wide open. A defeat there would send shockwaves through Labour ranks and set the tone for the campaign ahead.

A historic turning point?

The possibility of Labour losing its dominant position in Wales would represent a historic break with the past. In 1922, Ramsay MacDonald’s Labour Party won its first general election seats in Wales. Since then, the party has been at the heart of Welsh political life, shaping the nation’s institutions and policies.

To be relegated to third place would not just be a political setback but a symbolic collapse of Labour’s century-long dominance.

Challenges for all parties

Labour is not alone in facing difficulties. The Conservatives, hammered at the 2024 general election, have yet to recover. The Liberal Democrats remain marginal in Wales despite occasional local breakthroughs. Smaller parties like Gwlad and the Greens will hope to take advantage of the new Senedd voting system but remain long shots.

For Plaid and Reform, the challenge is proving they are ready to govern. Plaid must convince voters it is more than a protest vote for Welsh identity. Reform must show it can turn national anger into practical policies for Wales.

The road to May 2026

Between now and election day, voters will have a series of opportunities to take stock — from the Caerphilly by-election in October to the UK Budget in November, which may or may not deliver extra cash for Welsh public services.

For Eluned Morgan and Welsh Labour, the months ahead will be about survival. For Plaid and Reform, it is about seizing the moment.

Whatever happens, the 2026 Senedd election is shaping up to be the most unpredictable and consequential contest in modern Welsh political history.