News
Labour faces wipeout in Wales as Plaid Cymru and Reform surge
Polls suggest Plaid and Reform could end a century of dominance
WALES could be about to experience a once-in-a-century political shift, with Labour facing the prospect of being pushed into third place at next year’s Senedd election.
For more than 100 years Labour has been the dominant force in Welsh politics. Even during the Conservative landslides of the 1980s and 1990s, Wales remained red. In the first Senedd election in 1999, Labour emerged as the largest party and has governed in Cardiff Bay ever since.
That era of dominance may now be drawing to a close.
Polls point to seismic change
Recent surveys suggest Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are neck-and-neck to become the largest group in the Senedd after May 2026. Labour, meanwhile, is slipping behind.
The figures echo results from the 2024 general election, where Reform surged across large parts of Wales, particularly in the south and along the north-east corridor, and Plaid made steady gains in traditional heartlands.
Political observers say that if these trends continue, Labour could face its worst result in Welsh history — a “wipeout” on a scale no one in the party has experienced before.
Pressure on Eluned Morgan

First Minister Eluned Morgan has been under increasing strain. Her decision to turn down an invitation to a royal banquet for Donald Trump sparked headlines she did not need, while Health Secretary Jeremy Miles’ shock decision not to contest his seat in 2026 has fuelled speculation about fractures inside her cabinet.
Morgan insists she has the right team and continues to focus on “delivery”, particularly on cutting NHS waiting times. But critics say that after 26 years in power, Labour has run out of steam. Long waiting lists, a housing crisis, and weak economic growth are all likely to feature heavily in the campaign.
One Labour source told Herald.Wales: “We know this will be the toughest election we’ve ever faced. But the Senedd was built on Labour values, and we won’t give up on them now.”
Plaid and Reform sense opportunity
Plaid Cymru believes its consistent base in Welsh-speaking areas and strong local government record gives it a platform to win. Party strategists say Plaid can position itself as a party of “Welsh solutions” at a time when voters are weary of London politics.
Reform UK, meanwhile, is riding a wave of momentum from the general election. Its pitch is blunt: an end to what it calls “failing Labour rule” and a promise to focus on cost of living pressures, energy bills and migration.
Both parties are presenting themselves as the real alternative to Labour — and both know only one can emerge on top.
Caerphilly by-election the first test
Before the main event in May, Labour faces a significant test at the Caerphilly by-election on 23 October.
The confirmed candidates are Gareth Potter (Conservatives), Anthony Cook (Gwlad), Richard Tunnicliffe (Labour), Lindsay Whittle (Plaid Cymru), Llŷr Powell (Reform UK) and Steve Aicheler (Liberal Democrats).
Traditionally a safe Labour seat, Caerphilly is now considered wide open. A defeat there would send shockwaves through Labour ranks and set the tone for the campaign ahead.
A historic turning point?
The possibility of Labour losing its dominant position in Wales would represent a historic break with the past. In 1922, Ramsay MacDonald’s Labour Party won its first general election seats in Wales. Since then, the party has been at the heart of Welsh political life, shaping the nation’s institutions and policies.
To be relegated to third place would not just be a political setback but a symbolic collapse of Labour’s century-long dominance.
Challenges for all parties
Labour is not alone in facing difficulties. The Conservatives, hammered at the 2024 general election, have yet to recover. The Liberal Democrats remain marginal in Wales despite occasional local breakthroughs. Smaller parties like Gwlad and the Greens will hope to take advantage of the new Senedd voting system but remain long shots.
For Plaid and Reform, the challenge is proving they are ready to govern. Plaid must convince voters it is more than a protest vote for Welsh identity. Reform must show it can turn national anger into practical policies for Wales.
The road to May 2026
Between now and election day, voters will have a series of opportunities to take stock — from the Caerphilly by-election in October to the UK Budget in November, which may or may not deliver extra cash for Welsh public services.
For Eluned Morgan and Welsh Labour, the months ahead will be about survival. For Plaid and Reform, it is about seizing the moment.
Whatever happens, the 2026 Senedd election is shaping up to be the most unpredictable and consequential contest in modern Welsh political history.
Community
Specialist team searches River Teifi in ongoing hunt for missing man
A SPECIALIST search team has carried out a renewed and highly technical search of the River Teifi in Cardigan as efforts continue to find a man who was last seen entering the water earlier this month.
The operation was undertaken on Wednesday (Jan 28) by Specialist Group International (SGI), following a request from the family of Kurtis Brook.
Kurtis was witnessed entering the River Teifi on Saturday (Jan 4). Despite extensive searches involving multiple agencies and voluntary rescue organisations since then, he has not been located.

SGI confirmed that a seven-person specialist team conducted a coordinated search along the river, working downstream to the mouth of the Teifi estuary. The operation involved the deployment of high-frequency side-scan sonar, equipment capable of detecting objects beneath the water’s surface even in low-visibility conditions.
However, the team said conditions on the river remain exceptionally challenging. Recent storms, prolonged high river levels, floodwater and tidal influence have significantly altered the river environment since the initial incident.

In a statement, SGI said the search area contained “significant debris, obstructions and strainers,” describing flood and tidal river searches as among the most complex and hazardous situations faced by rescue specialists.
The Herald understands that the River Teifi has experienced repeated high-flow events in recent weeks, complicating earlier search efforts and increasing risks for those operating on the water.
SGI added that while no breakthrough was made during the latest operation, their thoughts remain firmly with Kurtis’s family and loved ones, and they acknowledged the continued dedication shown by his friends and relatives throughout the search.
Emergency services and specialist teams have been involved in repeated searches since the incident, with the operation scaling back and resuming at various points as conditions allowed.
Anyone with information relevant to the disappearance is urged to contact Dyfed-Powys Police.
News
Welsh Government support to help keep families together
MORE than £800,000 is being provided to help parents going through child protection processes, ensuring their voices are heard and they feel supported every step of the way.
Speaking at the Parent Advocacy Network (PAN) Cymru Conference in Port Talbot, Minister for Children and Social Care Dawn Bowden confirmed £133,600 of the funding will be provided to roll out its popular Parent Café model to more areas.
The cafés offer parent-led peer support spaces, helping families build confidence and resilience.
Research shows parental advocacy reduces the number of children entering care, improves relationships between parents and social workers, and gives parents greater confidence in engaging with services.
The £800,408 total investment includes continued funding for professional advocacy providers National Youth Advocacy Service (NYAS), Tros Gynnal Plant (TGP) Cymru and Mental Health Matters, alongside the investment in PAN Cymru’s peer-led approach.
Parental Advocacy is embedded in the Welsh Government’s Programme for Government, which includes a clear commitment to prevent families breaking up by funding advocacy services for parents whose children are involved in child protection processes.
A new National Framework for Parental Advocacy will be developed to ensure consistent support across Wales.
Minister for Children and Social Care, Dawn Bowden said: “We all want to improve outcomes for children and families across Wales.
“PAN Cymru has achieved remarkable progress in transforming how families experience and engage with children’s social services in Wales.
“When I visited a Parent Café last summer, I heard parents describe finding renewed purpose and improved wellbeing. The power of peer support can be life-changing and that was clear to see.
“This funding will help more families across Wales access this crucial support, helping to keep children safely with their families wherever possible.”
Advisory Project Manager at PAN Cymru, Fiona MacLeod said: “‘This funding marks a significant moment for PAN Cymru and for families across Wales.
“It recognises the power of parent led, professionally supported collaboration to strengthen families and communities and ensure families are genuinely heard with compassion and fairness.”
Business
Councillor condemns closure of Haverfordwest Santander branch
A PEMBROKESHIRE councillor has spoken out after learning that the Santander branch in Haverfordwest is set to close later this year, warning the decision will have a serious impact on local residents, families and businesses.
The bank’s Bridge Street branch is due to close on Monday (May 5) as part of a wider UK restructuring programme.
Councillor Thomas Baden Tudor said he was “lost for words” and urged the bank to reconsider, describing the closure as devastating for customers who rely on face-to-face services.
Santander says the decision is driven by declining footfall, with more customers banking online, and that services will remain available via digital platforms and Post Office counters.
However, the announcement follows a steady erosion of high-street banking in Pembrokeshire. The Herald recently reported that Haverfordwest’s former Halifax branch is set to reopen as a nail salon.
In what appears to be a serious failure of planning, there is now not a single bank branch left anywhere in south Pembrokeshire. Towns including Tenby, Pembroke and Pembroke Dock are all without face-to-face banking facilities.
North Pembrokeshire has also been affected, with Fishguard and St Davids now lacking bank branches.
Pembrokeshire is understood to be left with just four bank branches in total — Nationwide in Milford Haven, and HSBC, NatWest and Lloyds Bank in Haverfordwest.
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