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Labour faces wipeout in Wales as Plaid Cymru and Reform surge

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Polls suggest Plaid and Reform could end a century of dominance

WALES could be about to experience a once-in-a-century political shift, with Labour facing the prospect of being pushed into third place at next year’s Senedd election.

For more than 100 years Labour has been the dominant force in Welsh politics. Even during the Conservative landslides of the 1980s and 1990s, Wales remained red. In the first Senedd election in 1999, Labour emerged as the largest party and has governed in Cardiff Bay ever since.

That era of dominance may now be drawing to a close.

Polls point to seismic change

Recent surveys suggest Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are neck-and-neck to become the largest group in the Senedd after May 2026. Labour, meanwhile, is slipping behind.

The figures echo results from the 2024 general election, where Reform surged across large parts of Wales, particularly in the south and along the north-east corridor, and Plaid made steady gains in traditional heartlands.

Political observers say that if these trends continue, Labour could face its worst result in Welsh history — a “wipeout” on a scale no one in the party has experienced before.

Pressure on Eluned Morgan

First Minister Eluned Morgan has been under increasing strain. Her decision to turn down an invitation to a royal banquet for Donald Trump sparked headlines she did not need, while Health Secretary Jeremy Miles’ shock decision not to contest his seat in 2026 has fuelled speculation about fractures inside her cabinet.

Morgan insists she has the right team and continues to focus on “delivery”, particularly on cutting NHS waiting times. But critics say that after 26 years in power, Labour has run out of steam. Long waiting lists, a housing crisis, and weak economic growth are all likely to feature heavily in the campaign.

One Labour source told Herald.Wales: “We know this will be the toughest election we’ve ever faced. But the Senedd was built on Labour values, and we won’t give up on them now.”

Plaid and Reform sense opportunity

Plaid Cymru believes its consistent base in Welsh-speaking areas and strong local government record gives it a platform to win. Party strategists say Plaid can position itself as a party of “Welsh solutions” at a time when voters are weary of London politics.

Reform UK, meanwhile, is riding a wave of momentum from the general election. Its pitch is blunt: an end to what it calls “failing Labour rule” and a promise to focus on cost of living pressures, energy bills and migration.

Both parties are presenting themselves as the real alternative to Labour — and both know only one can emerge on top.

Caerphilly by-election the first test

Before the main event in May, Labour faces a significant test at the Caerphilly by-election on 23 October.

The confirmed candidates are Gareth Potter (Conservatives), Anthony Cook (Gwlad), Richard Tunnicliffe (Labour), Lindsay Whittle (Plaid Cymru), Llŷr Powell (Reform UK) and Steve Aicheler (Liberal Democrats).

Traditionally a safe Labour seat, Caerphilly is now considered wide open. A defeat there would send shockwaves through Labour ranks and set the tone for the campaign ahead.

A historic turning point?

The possibility of Labour losing its dominant position in Wales would represent a historic break with the past. In 1922, Ramsay MacDonald’s Labour Party won its first general election seats in Wales. Since then, the party has been at the heart of Welsh political life, shaping the nation’s institutions and policies.

To be relegated to third place would not just be a political setback but a symbolic collapse of Labour’s century-long dominance.

Challenges for all parties

Labour is not alone in facing difficulties. The Conservatives, hammered at the 2024 general election, have yet to recover. The Liberal Democrats remain marginal in Wales despite occasional local breakthroughs. Smaller parties like Gwlad and the Greens will hope to take advantage of the new Senedd voting system but remain long shots.

For Plaid and Reform, the challenge is proving they are ready to govern. Plaid must convince voters it is more than a protest vote for Welsh identity. Reform must show it can turn national anger into practical policies for Wales.

The road to May 2026

Between now and election day, voters will have a series of opportunities to take stock — from the Caerphilly by-election in October to the UK Budget in November, which may or may not deliver extra cash for Welsh public services.

For Eluned Morgan and Welsh Labour, the months ahead will be about survival. For Plaid and Reform, it is about seizing the moment.

Whatever happens, the 2026 Senedd election is shaping up to be the most unpredictable and consequential contest in modern Welsh political history.

Farming

Basic Payment Scheme 2025 balance paid to 95% of Welsh farmers

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Final year of BPS as transition to Sustainable Farming Scheme begins

The WELSH Government says more than ninety-five per cent of farm businesses have now received their full or balance payment under the final year of the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS), ahead of the introduction of the new Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS) in 2026.

Announcing the update on Friday (Dec 12), Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Climate Change and Rural Affairs, Huw Irranca-Davies, confirmed that over 15,400 Welsh farm businesses have been paid £68.7m. This comes on top of the £160m issued in BPS advance payments since 14 October.

Final round of BPS payments

The Basic Payment Scheme, which has been the backbone of farm support in Wales for a decade, provides direct income support to help farmers plan and manage their businesses. BPS 2025 marks the last year in which full BPS payments will be made before the scheme begins to be phased out.

The Cabinet Secretary said officials would “continue to process the outstanding BPS 2025 claims as soon as possible,” adding that all but the most complex cases should be completed by 30 June 2026.

Payments issued today represent the main balance due to farmers following earlier advances, giving many businesses the cash flow they need during the quieter winter period—traditionally a challenging time in the agricultural calendar.

Shift to Sustainable Farming Scheme in 2026

From 1 January 2026, the Welsh Government will begin rolling out the Sustainable Farming Scheme, a major reform to how agricultural support is delivered. The SFS will reward farmers for environmental outcomes such as habitat management, carbon reduction and biodiversity improvements, alongside continued food production.

The government has argued that the new scheme is essential to meeting Wales’ climate and nature targets while ensuring long-term resilience in the sector. However, the transition has been closely watched by farming unions, who have raised concerns about the administrative burden, income stability, and the speed at which BPS is being phased out.

Mr Irranca-Davies reaffirmed the government’s stance, saying: “This government is steadfastly committed to supporting Welsh farmers to sustainably produce quality food. This is demonstrated today in our payment of the BPS 2025 balance payments and will continue throughout the transition period.”

Sector reaction

Farming unions are expected to scrutinise the detail of today’s announcement, particularly around remaining unpaid cases. Last year, late payments led to frustration in parts of the sector, with unions calling for greater certainty as the industry faces rising input costs, supply chain pressures and continued market volatility.

The move to the SFS remains one of the most significant agricultural policy changes in Wales since devolution. Ministers insist the shift is designed to support both food production and environmental stewardship, while critics warn the transition must not undermine farm viability—especially for family-run livestock farms that dominate rural areas such as Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire.

What happens next

Farmers still awaiting their BPS 2025 balance will continue to be processed “as soon as possible”, the Welsh Government said. Officials will also publish updated guidance on the Sustainable Farming Scheme ahead of its launch.

The coming year will therefore become a pivotal moment for Welsh agriculture, as the long-standing BPS framework—which provided over £200m annually to Welsh farmers—makes way for a new results-based model that will shape the industry for decades to come.

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Improved train timetable launches across Wales

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Extra services, later trains and boosted Sunday routes as £800m rail investment takes effect

An improved train timetable has come into force across Wales today (Sunday, 14 December), with Transport for Wales (TfW) introducing more frequent services, stronger connections and additional late-night trains on key routes.

The winter timetable update brings one of the most substantial uplifts in recent years on the Wales and Borders network, forming part of the Welsh Government’s ongoing £800 million investment in brand-new rolling stock and reliability improvements.

More trains and later journeys

Among the upgrades, passengers will see:

  • A new hourly additional service between Chester and Wrexham, effectively doubling the frequency on one of the region’s busiest commuter corridors.
  • An extra train in each direction every day on the Heart of Wales line between Swansea and Shrewsbury.
  • Three later last trains from Cardiff to Treherbert, Aberdare and Merthyr Tydfil, supporting shift workers and the night-time economy.
  • A new hourly Sunday service on the Coryton line in Cardiff.

Cabinet Secretary for Transport and North Wales, Ken Skates, said improved connectivity was “absolutely vital” for economic growth and passenger confidence.

“These changes will make a real difference to customers, who will benefit from more services and greater connectivity,” he said. “This has been made possible by our £800m investment in brand-new trains for the Wales and Borders network.

“We will see the doubling of trains between Wrexham and Chester and a later service from the capital to valley communities. In South Wales, people will continue to benefit from simpler, fairer fares through TfW’s Pay As You Go service, and its forthcoming introduction in North Wales will help even more passengers access easy, transparent pricing.”

Full details of the updated timetable are available at: tfw.wales/service-status/timetables

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Wrecked guard boat still under watch off north Pembrokeshire coast

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Tidal changes monitored after dramatic early-morning rescue

A GUARD VESSEL that ran aground off the north Pembrokeshire coast in the early hours of Thursday morning (Dec 11) remains under close observation as tides continue to shift.

The Resolute, a 24-metre guard boat understood to be working for an offshore wind project off the Irish coast, had been sheltering in worsening weather when she was pushed onto rocks near Aber Hywel, Dinas, shortly after 3:25am.

Four crew members were onboard when the vessel grounded in rough seas and a strong southerly wind.

Major rescue effort launched

The crew issued an emergency alert, prompting a full multi-agency response.
A coastguard rescue helicopter, both Fishguard RNLI lifeboats, and coastguard teams from Fishguard and St Davids were sent to the scene.

Turbulent air made a winch rescue impossible and Fishguard’s all-weather lifeboat was unable to get close due to cliffs and submerged hazards. The inshore lifeboat was instead deployed to attempt a transfer in extremely challenging conditions.

During the evacuation, the third crew member descending to the vessel’s life raft slipped, fell into the water and was swept away. Speaking afterwards, RNLI crew member Cedwyn Rogers said the team immediately switched into “hyper-focused” mode as training took over.

Despite the casualty drifting, helm Warren Bean — a volunteer with more than 30 years’ RNLI experience — manoeuvred the lifeboat alongside, allowing crew to haul the man to safety. The remaining crew member was then retrieved, and all four were taken aboard the all-weather lifeboat and brought ashore to Fishguard.

All rescue units were later stood down.

Vessel still stranded and taking on water

The Herald understands that the Resolute remained aground on the rocks yesterday and was taking on water. The crew were later assisted back onboard by a local fisherman to assess damage on behalf of the vessel’s operators.

Management representatives from Ireland were due to arrive to draw up a recovery plan, including arrangements to remove fuel to prevent any potential environmental impact.

Further inspections have been taking place today as the team evaluates the next steps.

Coastguard statement

A spokesperson for HM Coastguard said: “At 3.28am on Thursday morning, HM Coastguard was made aware of a vessel with four persons onboard aground on rocks at Fishguard, Pembrokeshire. RNLI lifeboats and coastguard rescue teams from Fishguard and St Davids were sent to the scene. The four people aboard were rescued by lifeboat, and the helicopter was stood down. The vessel, which is still aground, is being monitored as tidal conditions change.”

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