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Labour faces wipeout in Wales as Plaid Cymru and Reform surge

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Polls suggest Plaid and Reform could end a century of dominance

WALES could be about to experience a once-in-a-century political shift, with Labour facing the prospect of being pushed into third place at next year’s Senedd election.

For more than 100 years Labour has been the dominant force in Welsh politics. Even during the Conservative landslides of the 1980s and 1990s, Wales remained red. In the first Senedd election in 1999, Labour emerged as the largest party and has governed in Cardiff Bay ever since.

That era of dominance may now be drawing to a close.

Polls point to seismic change

Recent surveys suggest Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are neck-and-neck to become the largest group in the Senedd after May 2026. Labour, meanwhile, is slipping behind.

The figures echo results from the 2024 general election, where Reform surged across large parts of Wales, particularly in the south and along the north-east corridor, and Plaid made steady gains in traditional heartlands.

Political observers say that if these trends continue, Labour could face its worst result in Welsh history — a “wipeout” on a scale no one in the party has experienced before.

Pressure on Eluned Morgan

First Minister Eluned Morgan has been under increasing strain. Her decision to turn down an invitation to a royal banquet for Donald Trump sparked headlines she did not need, while Health Secretary Jeremy Miles’ shock decision not to contest his seat in 2026 has fuelled speculation about fractures inside her cabinet.

Morgan insists she has the right team and continues to focus on “delivery”, particularly on cutting NHS waiting times. But critics say that after 26 years in power, Labour has run out of steam. Long waiting lists, a housing crisis, and weak economic growth are all likely to feature heavily in the campaign.

One Labour source told Herald.Wales: “We know this will be the toughest election we’ve ever faced. But the Senedd was built on Labour values, and we won’t give up on them now.”

Plaid and Reform sense opportunity

Plaid Cymru believes its consistent base in Welsh-speaking areas and strong local government record gives it a platform to win. Party strategists say Plaid can position itself as a party of “Welsh solutions” at a time when voters are weary of London politics.

Reform UK, meanwhile, is riding a wave of momentum from the general election. Its pitch is blunt: an end to what it calls “failing Labour rule” and a promise to focus on cost of living pressures, energy bills and migration.

Both parties are presenting themselves as the real alternative to Labour — and both know only one can emerge on top.

Caerphilly by-election the first test

Before the main event in May, Labour faces a significant test at the Caerphilly by-election on 23 October.

The confirmed candidates are Gareth Potter (Conservatives), Anthony Cook (Gwlad), Richard Tunnicliffe (Labour), Lindsay Whittle (Plaid Cymru), Llŷr Powell (Reform UK) and Steve Aicheler (Liberal Democrats).

Traditionally a safe Labour seat, Caerphilly is now considered wide open. A defeat there would send shockwaves through Labour ranks and set the tone for the campaign ahead.

A historic turning point?

The possibility of Labour losing its dominant position in Wales would represent a historic break with the past. In 1922, Ramsay MacDonald’s Labour Party won its first general election seats in Wales. Since then, the party has been at the heart of Welsh political life, shaping the nation’s institutions and policies.

To be relegated to third place would not just be a political setback but a symbolic collapse of Labour’s century-long dominance.

Challenges for all parties

Labour is not alone in facing difficulties. The Conservatives, hammered at the 2024 general election, have yet to recover. The Liberal Democrats remain marginal in Wales despite occasional local breakthroughs. Smaller parties like Gwlad and the Greens will hope to take advantage of the new Senedd voting system but remain long shots.

For Plaid and Reform, the challenge is proving they are ready to govern. Plaid must convince voters it is more than a protest vote for Welsh identity. Reform must show it can turn national anger into practical policies for Wales.

The road to May 2026

Between now and election day, voters will have a series of opportunities to take stock — from the Caerphilly by-election in October to the UK Budget in November, which may or may not deliver extra cash for Welsh public services.

For Eluned Morgan and Welsh Labour, the months ahead will be about survival. For Plaid and Reform, it is about seizing the moment.

Whatever happens, the 2026 Senedd election is shaping up to be the most unpredictable and consequential contest in modern Welsh political history.

 

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Lib Dems say new EU deal could help Pembrokeshire businesses and boost defence ties

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Party calls for UK to rejoin Single Market as Brexit anniversary approaches

THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS have called for Britain to rebuild closer links with Europe, saying a return to the Single Market and Customs Union could help businesses, exporters and major energy projects in Pembrokeshire.

The party says its proposed “Growth and Defence Partnership” with the European Union would cut trade barriers, strengthen national security and help repair what it describes as the economic damage caused by Brexit.

The announcement comes ahead of the tenth anniversary of the 2016 referendum, which saw the UK vote to leave the EU.

For Pembrokeshire, the debate has particular relevance. The county’s economy is closely tied to agriculture, food production, tourism, ports, energy and international trade. Businesses exporting goods into Europe have faced additional paperwork and costs since Brexit, while major projects around Milford Haven, the Celtic Freeport and offshore wind are expected to depend heavily on international investment and cooperation.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey is expected to use a speech to the European Movement to call for immediate talks with the EU on a new deal.

The party wants the UK to join the Single Market through the European Economic Area, alongside countries such as Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. It is also calling for a new customs union with the EU.

The Liberal Democrats say this would remove many of the barriers currently faced by businesses trading with Europe.

Welsh Liberal Democrat Westminster spokesperson David Chadwick MP said Wales had been badly affected by Brexit.

He said: “Wales was one of the hardest hit parts of the UK by the failed Brexit experiment that was masterminded by the likes of Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson.

“We shouldn’t have to live with the bad deal they’ve lumped us with. People deserve far better than that.

“That’s why we are calling for a bold new deal with Europe to boost growth, create jobs and keep our country safe.”

The party is also calling for closer defence cooperation with European allies, including a new European Security Council and greater joint procurement.

Sir Ed is expected to argue that the threat from Vladimir Putin’s Russia, together with uncertainty over American foreign policy under Donald Trump, makes closer UK-European defence cooperation essential.

The proposals are likely to reopen political arguments over Brexit. Labour has so far ruled out rejoining the Single Market or Customs Union, while the Conservatives and Reform UK remain opposed to reversing Brexit.

But the Liberal Democrats say the economic case for closer European ties is now impossible to ignore.

For Pembrokeshire, the question is not only ideological. Farmers, food producers, hauliers, tourism businesses, port operators and energy companies all depend on smooth trading links, investment confidence and international cooperation.

Ten years after the referendum, the party says Britain must stop treating closer European cooperation as a taboo and start focusing on what would help communities, businesses and public services.

 

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Entertainment

Saundersfoot film to premiere where it was made

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A PEMBROKESHIRE-made feature film is to receive its big-screen premiere next month in the very harbour where much of it was shot.

Near and Distant Things, written and directed by Saundersfoot filmmaker Emily Batty, will be shown outdoors at Saundersfoot Harbour on Saturday, July 18, as part of the Torch Theatre’s Sunset Cinema series.

The drama, filmed in summer 2025, tells the story of a grieving fisherman trying to support his daughter after she returns home, while experiencing dreamlike visions of his late wife.

The film makes strong use of the Saundersfoot landscape, with scenes filmed at the harbour, The Royal Oak pub, Monkstone Point and other familiar local locations.

Emily, 22, who grew up in Saundersfoot and recently graduated from the University of Oxford with a geography degree, has described the project as “a love letter to home”.

She said: “Watching a film set in Saundersfoot, with recognisable faces and locations on screen, in the heart of the harbour itself where we filmed many scenes, feels incredibly full-circle.

The crew pause for a team-photo (Pic: Rachell Lambert Photography)

“I can’t wait to share that experience with people.”

The film was made with the support of a small team and a largely local cast and crew.

Emily said the production had only been possible because of the “incredible amount of local support” received during filming.

She also praised composer and sound designer Zach Worthington, whose work helped shape the atmosphere of the film.

She said: “The score and soundtrack feel so entangled with the landscape of home.

“It’s a little bit folk, a little bit Celtic, and rather emotional.”

Emily, who has written and directed the film under the name Emily Florence, said some of the ideas behind the film had been with her for several years.

Saundersfoot Harbour was used as a filming location and will now host the premiere (Pic: Rachell Lambert Photography)

She said: “Some of the images within the film have been in my head since I was 18.”

She added that Pembrokeshire remains a major source of inspiration for her future work.

“I have a couple of screenplays in the works – I never stop writing – and I’m looking to get agented,” she said.

“I’m excited to continue to tell stories, in whatever capacity that may be.

“I can say that Pembrokeshire is still my muse, and I don’t think I’m done telling stories about home.”

The outdoor screening will take place on the harbour decking, with gates opening at 6:00pm and the film beginning at 7:00pm.

The film is rated PG, but includes themes of bereavement, mental health, domestic abuse and references to suicide which some viewers may find upsetting.

Emily said she hoped the premiere would be a moment of shared pride for the village.

She said: “So many people helped bring this film to life.

“There’s something very special about sharing a story set in Saundersfoot, surrounded by the landscape that inspired it.”

Tickets are available through the Torch Theatre website, with advance booking recommended.

 

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Welsh Government consults on new protections for leaseholders

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LEASEHOLDERS in Wales could be protected from unfair building safety costs under new Welsh Government proposals.

A consultation has been launched on the first steps to implement the Building Safety (Wales) Act 2026, which was passed unanimously by the Senedd.

The proposals are aimed at residents living in multi-occupied buildings and focus on who should pay when safety defects need to be put right.

The consultation covers three main areas: limiting the costs that can be passed on to leaseholders for remediation work, creating a tribunal-based system for remediation orders and remediation contribution orders, and setting out how the height of regulated buildings should be calculated.

The Welsh Government says the aim is to ensure residents are not left paying for building safety failures they did not cause.

Cabinet Minister for Local Government, Housing and Planning, Siân Gwenllian said: “No leaseholder in Wales should pay for building safety failures they did not cause, and those failures should be rectified as soon as possible.

“This consultation is a crucial step in making sure the Building Safety (Wales) Act 2026 delivers real protection for the people it was designed to serve.

“As we mark the ninth anniversary of the Grenfell Tower tragedy, we have a duty to turn this legislation into lasting change — and this Welsh Government is determined to work with partners to make that happen as quickly as possible.”

The consultation is open to residents, leaseholders, building owners and other interested parties.

It closes on September 7, 2026.

 

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