News
Plaid and Reform neck and neck as polls close in Caerphilly by-election
Historic valleys seat could fall after more than a century of Labour dominance
POLLS have closed in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, with sources from both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK suggesting the result could go down to the wire.
The by-election was triggered by the sudden death of Labour MS Hefin David in August. He was first elected in 2016 and was well-known in Cardiff Bay for his outspoken contributions and his work as one of the Senedd’s commissioners.
Counting began on Thursday night at Caerphilly Leisure Centre, where officials confirmed that turnout figures would be announced before midnight.
Plaid and Reform confident
Party figures from both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK told The Herald they believe the race is “too close to call”, with one hinting that a recount could be possible if margins prove tight.
Plaid’s candidate Lindsay Whittle, a former Caerphilly council leader, has been campaigning heavily on local services and cost-of-living pressures, while Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell has focused on immigration and opposition to Cardiff Bay’s 20 mph speed limit policy.
Both parties brought in their national leaders for final rallies this week — Rhun ap Iorwerth for Plaid and Nigel Faragefor Reform UK — underlining the national significance of the vote.
Labour faces uphill struggle
Labour’s candidate Richard Tunnicliffe thanked voters for their support, saying the campaign had been “tough for a variety of reasons.” Welsh Labour insiders privately admit the party expects to finish third, a dramatic reversal in a constituency it has dominated since the early twentieth century.
One Labour source described the contest as “a defeat for Starmerism, not for Eluned Morgan,” arguing that the First Minister remains personally popular on the doorstep despite frustration with the UK party leadership.
Wider implications
A loss in Caerphilly would leave Welsh Labour with 29 of the Senedd’s 60 seats, forcing it to rely on at least two opposition members to pass future budgets.
Politically, the result will be viewed as a key test of the mood across the South Wales Valleys ahead of the 2026 Senedd Election, with polls showing Plaid and Reform gaining ground among voters disillusioned with both main parties.
The count will continue into the early hours of Friday morning, with a result expected around 2:00 am.
Business
Independent brewers join call for business rates relief as pub closures feared
INDEPENDENT brewers have joined growing calls for urgent, pub-specific relief on Business Rates amid fears that community pubs across west Wales and beyond could be forced to close.
The Society of Independent Brewers and Associates (SIBA) has warned that changes announced in the Autumn Budget will see pub costs rise sharply over the next three years, with the average pub facing a 76% increase in Business Rates. By comparison, large warehouse-style premises operated by online and technology giants are expected to see increases of around 16%.
The issue will be discussed at a meeting taking place on Monday in Saundersfoot, where local publicans, small brewers and business representatives are due to come together to examine the impact of rising Business Rates and escalating operating costs. The meeting is expected to focus on the future sustainability of community pubs, particularly in coastal and rural areas where they often act as vital social hubs as well as key local employers.
Independent breweries are particularly exposed, SIBA says, as the vast majority of their beer is sold through local community pubs. Many small breweries also operate their own pubs or taprooms, meaning they are hit twice by rising rates. Some independent brewers have reported rateable value increases of up to 300%, creating new costs they say will be extremely difficult to absorb.
New industry research published on Thursday (Dec 12) suggests that introducing a pub-specific Business Rates relief of 30% from April 1, 2026 could protect around 15,000 jobs currently under threat in the pubs sector and help prevent widespread closures.
The call for action follows an open letter sent last week by SIBA’s board, expressing deep concern at the impact of the Budget’s Business Rates decisions on the hospitality sector.
Andy Slee, Chief Executive of SIBA, said: “The last orders bell is ringing very loudly in our community pubs after the shock changes to Business Rates in the Budget.
“Publicans and brewers feel badly let down by a system that still isn’t fairly addressing the imbalance between big global tech companies and small business owners.
“We were promised proper reform of Business Rates in the Labour manifesto last year and a rebalancing of the tax regime, but this has not been delivered. Pubs therefore need urgent help to address the planned increase in costs through a pub-specific relief, followed by full and meaningful reform.”
Those attending Monday’s meeting in Saundersfoot are expected to consider how local voices can feed into the national debate and press for urgent action to protect community pubs across Pembrokeshire.

Community
Annual charity carol service raises funds for good causes
MID and West Wales Fire and Rescue Service held its annual Charity Carol Service on Wednesday (Dec 10) at Ebeneser Baptist Chapel in Crymych.
The event brought together members of the local community alongside Fire Service staff for an evening of carols, readings and festive refreshments, marking the Christmas season in a warm and inclusive atmosphere.
This year’s service supported two important charities — the Fire Fighters Charity and Cancer Research Wales — with all proceeds going directly towards their ongoing work.
A total of £597 was raised on the night, which will be shared equally between the two charities.
The Service thanked the congregation at Ebeneser Baptist Chapel for hosting the event, as well as everyone who gave their time, support and generosity to make the evening such a success.

Local Government
Call for Return of Salt Tip in North Pembrokeshire to Improve Winter Road Safety
A PROPOSAL for the reinstatement of a salt tip in North Pembrokeshire to improve road safety during snowy and icy conditions has been put forward by local councillor Huw Murphy.
At the December meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council, Cllr Murphy called for a review of the council’s current weather strategy, highlighting the need for an auxiliary salt tip in the north of the county. His motion, which was supported by senior councillors, aims to address the challenges faced by motorists during severe winter weather.
Cllr Murphy’s motion emphasized the importance of having a reserve salt tip available to ensure primary routes remain clear and accessible during snow and ice conditions. This would allow emergency services to respond to calls, key workers to reach their workplaces, and essential vehicles like HGVs to access farms for activities such as milk collection.
Historically, a salt tip was located near Crymych, which proved invaluable for gritting roads, particularly the A478 between Crymych and Cardigan, and between Crymych and Clunderwen. These roads, often treacherous during snowy weather, have caused difficulties for HGVs, coaches, and school buses in the past.
The proposal stresses that a new salt tip in Pembrokeshire would allow for quicker and more regular gritting, making roads safer for all users, especially during the harshest winter conditions. Cllr Murphy also highlighted that recent heavy snowfall exposed weaknesses in the current gritting strategy, particularly in the northeast of Pembrokeshire and the Preseli Mountains, which are most prone to severe weather.
The motion also called for prompt gritting and the deployment of snow ploughs on key routes, including the A478, A487, B4332, and B4329, which are vital for the local communities in the northeast and Preseli areas.
The county council’s Cabinet will now consider Cllr Murphy’s motion for further review.
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