News

Senedd election 2026: Poll points to historic Welsh Labour slump

Published

3 months ago

April 15, 2026

Plaid Cymru projected to emerge as largest party, with Reform UK close behind as Labour risks falling to third place

A MAJOR new opinion poll has sent fresh tremors through Welsh politics, suggesting Welsh Labour could lose its grip on Cardiff Bay for the first time since devolution began in 1999.

The survey, carried out by JL Partners for The Telegraph, projects Plaid Cymru as the largest party in the next Senedd, with Reform UK in second and Labour pushed into third. According to the poll, Plaid is on 28.8% of the vote and projected to win 33 seats, Reform UK is on 24.8% and 29 seats, while Labour trails on 15.9% and 17 seats.

If that result were repeated on polling day, it would mark one of the biggest political upheavals in modern Welsh political history. Labour has led every Welsh administration since the Assembly was created in 1999, but this poll suggests that dominance may now be under serious threat.

The election on May 7 will itself be a landmark one. For the first time, the Senedd will have 96 members rather than 60, with Wales divided into 16 larger constituencies, each electing six Members of the Senedd under the new proportional closed-list system. Voters will cast a single vote for a party or independent candidate, replacing the previous system.

Under the JL Partners projection, Labour is forecast to lead in only one of the new super-constituencies: Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. Elsewhere, the battle for first place is expected to be dominated by Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

For west Wales, that will be watched especially closely. Pembrokeshire is now split between the new Preseli Sir Benfro and Ceredigion Penfro constituencies, meaning local voters will be part of two much larger electoral contests than before. Under the reformed system, party performance across a wider area will carry much greater weight.

The projected national vote shares in the poll are:

Plaid Cymru: 28.8%
Reform UK: 24.8%
Labour: 15.9%
Conservatives: 12.3%
Greens: 9.2%
Liberal Democrats: 5.6%
Others: 3.5%

The findings broadly follow the direction of another recent MRP poll, which also placed Plaid Cymru in first place, Reform UK second and Labour third, although with different seat estimates. Taken together, the polling suggests a growing appetite for change among Welsh voters.

Even so, the picture remains fluid. With no party anywhere near the 49 seats needed for a majority in the new 96-member Senedd, any administration formed after May 7 is likely to depend on coalition talks or some form of agreement between parties.

James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, described the Welsh findings as potentially seismic, warning they would represent a political earthquake if borne out on election day.

For Pembrokeshire voters, the implications are significant. The coming weeks are likely to see fierce debate over farming, rural transport, NHS waiting times, the 20mph policy, energy costs, education and the value-for-money argument surrounding the larger Senedd. Those issues are already shaping campaign messages across west Wales.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has presented his party as ready to lead the next Welsh Government, while Labour under First Minister Eluned Morgan faces what may be its most difficult Senedd campaign in a generation. Reform UK, meanwhile, is seeking to turn growing discontent with the political establishment into a major breakthrough.

Polls are snapshots rather than forecasts, and much can still change before voters go to the ballot box. But with the campaign entering its closing weeks, this latest survey suggests Wales may be heading towards the most dramatic Senedd election since devolution began.

News

Record 34 candidates to contest Clacton by-election triggered by Farage

Published

11 hours ago

July 17, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Nigel Farage will face an extraordinary field of 33 opponents when voters in Clacton return to the polls next month

A RECORD 34 candidates have been confirmed for the Clacton parliamentary by-election, which will take place on Thursday, August 13.

The contest was triggered after Mr Farage resigned as the constituency’s MP before announcing that he would stand again for Reform UK.

He said the election would allow local voters to judge his conduct following intense scrutiny of his financial backing and two inquiries by Parliament’s standards commissioner.

Mr Farage has denied wrongdoing and maintains that gifts and other support he received were personal and did not need to be registered under parliamentary rules. He has described the by-election as a contest between the public and the political establishment.

Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are among the larger parties that have declined to field candidates.

Their absence has left political satirist Count Binface and Reclaim Party leader Laurence Fox among the best-known names challenging Mr Farage.

The ballot paper will also feature three candidates from the Official Monster Raving Loony Party, several representatives of smaller political parties and a large number of independents.

Tendring District Council confirmed the final list after nominations closed on Friday.

The council said the field of 34 is believed to be the largest ever assembled for a UK parliamentary election.

The previous record is understood to have been 26 candidates at the Haltemprice and Howden by-election in July 2008. That election was called after Conservative MP David Davis resigned and stood again to campaign over civil liberties.

Full list of Clacton candidates

The candidates standing on August 13 are:

Joseph 77, Independent
Adham Alkhatip, The Forward Party
Count Binface, Count Binface Party
Nick The Incredible Flying Brick, Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Tony Cane, Independent
Woke Trump Carrzee, Independent
William Stuart James Clouston, Social Democratic Party
Rees Cowne, Independent
Glenn Charles Cummings, Independent
Martin Davies, Freedom Alliance – Real People, Real Alternative!
Andy Erlam, Independent
Nigel Farage, Reform UK
Attieh Fard, Independent
Laurence Fox, The Reclaim Party
Tony Francis, Independent
Robin Green, Independent
Abi Hookway, Independent
Howling Laud Hope, Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Stephen Richard Ingram, Independent
Amy Morris, Independent
Derrick Norbert Morris, Independent
Michael Noel O’Keeffe, Independent
Martyn OBrien, Independent
Nick Pelas, Independent
Ketankumar Pipaliya, UK VOICE safer and stronger UK
Daniel Pocock, Independent
James Ransley, Consensus Party Candidate
Gerry Smith, Independent
Kai Stephens, British Democrats
John Stevens, Rejoin EU
Baron Von Thunderclap, Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Pamela Walford, Independent
Marcus White, Everyone is God Party
Marc Wilkinson, Independent

Almost 80,000 people are eligible to vote across the constituency’s 51 polling stations.

Residents who are not already registered must apply by July 28. The deadline for postal vote applications is 5pm on July 29, while applications for proxy votes and free Voter Authority Certificates must be submitted by 5pm on August 5.

Mr Farage first won Clacton for Reform UK at the 2024 general election, receiving 21,225 votes and securing a majority of 8,405 over the Conservatives.

The seat has officially been vacant since July 8 following his resignation.

Charity

Forever 11 water safety programme reaches nearly 2,000 Pembrokeshire pupils

Published

11 hours ago

July 17, 2026

Rieve Nesbitt-Marr

A CHARITY established in memory of 11-year-old Zac Thompson is helping almost 2,000 Pembrokeshire schoolchildren learn potentially life-saving skills in and around the water.

Forever 11 was founded following Zac’s death in 2022, when he was swept into the sea.

The charity began delivering water safety programmes in 2023, initially working with one school. It now supports pupils at 13 primary schools across Pembrokeshire, with around 2,000 children expected to take part in its sessions this year.

Forever 11 chair Carli Newell said the charity believes water safety should be treated as an essential life skill for children growing up in a coastal county.

She said: “Every child in Pembrokeshire deserves the right to have water safety sessions.

“Especially where we live, it should be as important as being able to read.”

Working alongside organisations including PaddleWest, Activity Pembrokeshire and Windswept Wales, the charity provides practical kayaking, paddleboarding and sea kayaking sessions.

Pupils are also taught important safety advice, including the RNLI’s Float to Live guidance, while some children have the opportunity to gain nationally recognised Paddle Safe and Swim Safe qualifications.

The programme was originally aimed at pupils in Years 5 and 6, but it has since been extended to children in Years 3 and 4.

The charity hopes that introducing younger pupils to the water will help them build confidence and develop essential skills before reaching the age group most at risk of accidental drowning.

Forever 11 trustee Lucy Garett said national drowning figures are reviewed each year to help shape the programme.

She said: “The trends are all the same every year.

“It’s mostly children aged between 10 and 19 who are at risk of accidental drowning.

“We want children to have at least one or two sessions in the water before they reach that higher risk group.”

The sessions are offered to schools free of charge, with the costs covered through fundraising and public donations.

This means children can participate regardless of their family’s financial circumstances.

Forever 11 estimates that it has delivered more than 10,000 hours of water safety education since its work began.

Ms Garett said the response from schools, parents and pupils had been extremely positive.

She added: “Some parents have told us their child had been completely scared of going in the water, but afterwards they said it was one of the best days they’d ever had at school.”

The charity now hopes to work with more watersports providers, allowing the scheme to reach additional schools throughout Pembrokeshire.

Its long-term ambition is for every primary school pupil in the county to finish school with the knowledge and confidence needed to stay safe around the water.

The charity said: “We want every primary-aged child to know what to do to keep themselves and others safe in and around the water.”

Forever 11 will continue raising awareness and funds at Pembroke Regatta on Saturday, July 25, followed by its annual Forever 11 Fun Day on Sunday, July 26.

News

Three kayakers rescued after getting into difficulty near Skomer

Published

12 hours ago

July 17, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Coastguard teams and two RNLI lifeboats were called after the group was pushed south while attempting to pass through Jack Sound

THREE kayakers were rescued after getting into difficulty while returning from Skomer Island through Jack Sound.

Watchkeepers at NCI Wooltack Point had been monitoring the group as they attempted to make the crossing, but the kayakers were pushed south and eventually disappeared from view from the station.

One watchkeeper continued searching from the lookout while another went outside to try to locate them. The kayakers were eventually spotted from the cliff-top path in a nearby bay, where it was confirmed that they required assistance.

HM Coastguard was alerted and both Angle RNLI lifeboat and Little and Broad Haven RNLI lifeboat were tasked to the incident.

The rescue was successfully completed, with NCI Wooltack Point praising the teamwork between Pembrokeshire’s search and rescue agencies.

The kayakers later made a donation to the station in recognition of the assistance they had received.

Photo: NCI Wooltack Point watchkeeper Charles