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Farming

Confidence drops as markets stay volatile

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British farming has faced massive challenges in 2015: Meurig Raymond

British farming has faced massive challenges in 2015: Meurig Raymond

INCREASED volatility and falling commodity prices across the sectors have seen farmers’ confidence drop to lower levels than last year, a new survey by the NFU has revealed. Confidence, specifically in the arable and dairy sectors, has declined significantly from 12 months ago, but farmers across the industry have told NFU that the three-year forecast is much more positive. As part of our sixth annual confidence survey, members told the NFU that they expected negative impacts on their businesses in the coming year relating to regulation and legislation (69%); CAP reform (51%); output prices (56%) and input prices (46%). Output prices are the second most important factor affecting confidence, as members have seen their margins squeezed as a result of the fall in farmgate prices greater than the reduction in their costs of production.
The survey also shows that in the last two years twice as many farmers have seen their profits declining, with 49% of respondents now reporting declining profits (42% last year). Some 7% think their business may not survive – the highest figure in any year so far. Those figures were even more worrying in the dairy sector, where almost 20% of dairy respondents declared that their business may not survive, a rise from 3% in 2014. NFU President Meurig Raymond said: “This year has seen British farming face massive challenges, not least of all falling farmgate prices, particularly within the dairy and arable sectors. “Given the levels of volatility we have seen across the industry it is no surprise that we have seen farmer confidence in the negative.
It shows very clearly that we are absolutely correct to urge Defra and RPA to make every effort to speed delivery of BPS payments and that we press processors and retailers for a fairer return for the highquality food that farmers supply. “Regulation remains the key blocker for our members’ confidence. This gives a clear message that government must to do all that it can to ease regulatory pressure. Confidence is critical because it influences investment and production intentions. If we want our farms to compete in an increasingly global market place and make the most of emerging export opportunities, we need government action rather than rhetoric when it comes to reducing red tape. This is why NFU is calling for action in 2016 to reduce the frequency of farm inspections and improve their coordination.
“Our research has shown that looking forward, farmers have a generally optimistic outlook on their medium-term prospects. The government has a golden opportunity, in its 25-year Food and Farming Strategy, to map the course for a more confident and profitable industry. The NFU urges government, retailers and the public to back British farming to ensure this optimism is not misplaced.” More farmers said they want to invest in diversification, training and energy efficiency in the three years to come. Those intentions are backed by the higher levels of borrowing in agriculture registered for the first nine months of the year.
The volatility of markets was a key part of evidence given by the NFU to House of Lords committee on December 16. The NFU has given evidence to a group of Peers on how agricultural price volatility impacts farm businesses. Head of food and farming Phil Bicknell appeared before the House of Lords Energy and Environment Sub- Committee as part of its enquiry into market prices and wider resilience among farmers. It follows a similar enquiry being held by MPs on the House of Commons Efra Select Committee into farmgate prices.
With volatility characterising most agricultural markets, and the associated pressures on cash flow, profitability and long term business planning, the committee heard about the challenges of price volatility faced by NFU members. Mr Bicknell emphasised that sustained price volatility risks the viability of farm businesses, leads to reduced investment levels, and is a challenge for the whole food supply chain rather than just a farming issue.
He said: “Volatility is an ever increasing characteristic of agricultural markets, particularly as we’ve seen farm policy back away from market management and control to less marketdistorting policy tools. “Farming is a very resilient industry. Our industry is made up of farmers who are past masters at dealing with anything that’s thrown at them – whether that’s periods of low prices or the recent devastating floods that hit farming communities in Northern England. “But it’s important that we’re an industry that thrives rather than just survives and is geared up for future food production. A boom and bust cycle of prices benefits can be damaging in the long run.”

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Farming

Welsh Conservatives warn climate plans could mean fewer livestock on Welsh farms

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THE WELSH CONSERVATIVES have challenged the Welsh Government over climate change policies they say could lead to reductions in livestock numbers across Wales, raising concerns about the future of Welsh farming.

The row follows the Welsh Government’s decision, alongside Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats, to support the UK Climate Change Committee’s Fourth Carbon Budget, which sets out the pathway towards Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

The Carbon Budget, produced by the independent Climate Change Committee (CCC), states that meeting Net Zero targets will require a reduction in agricultural emissions, including changes to land use and, in some scenarios, a reduction in livestock numbers.

During questioning in the Senedd, the Welsh Conservatives pressed the Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Climate Change and Rural Affairs on whether the Welsh Government supports reducing livestock numbers as part of its climate strategy.

Speaking after the exchange, Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs, Samuel Kurtz MS, said the Welsh Government could not distance itself from the implications of the policy it had backed.

Mr Kurtz said: “By voting in favour of these climate change regulations, Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats have signed up to the UK Climate Change Committee’s call to cut livestock numbers in Wales, and they cannot dodge that reality.

“The Deputy First Minister’s smoke-and-mirrors answers only confirm what farmers already fear: that Labour, along with their budget bedfellows in Plaid and the Lib Dems, are prepared to sacrifice Welsh agriculture in pursuit of climate targets.”

He added that the issue came at a time of growing pressure on the farming sector, pointing to uncertainty over the proposed Sustainable Farming Scheme, the ongoing failure to eradicate bovine TB, nitrogen pollution regulations under the Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (NVZs), and proposed changes to inheritance tax rules affecting family farms.

The Welsh Government has repeatedly said it does not have a target to forcibly reduce livestock numbers and has argued that future emissions reductions will come through a combination of improved farming practices, environmental land management, and changes in land use agreed with farmers.

Ministers have also said the Sustainable Farming Scheme, which is due to replace the Basic Payment Scheme, is intended to reward farmers for food production alongside environmental outcomes, rather than remove land from agriculture.

The UK Climate Change Committee, which advises governments across the UK, has stressed that its pathways are based on modelling rather than fixed quotas, and that devolved governments have flexibility in how targets are met.

However, farming unions and rural groups in Wales have warned that policies focused on emissions reduction risk undermining the viability of livestock farming, particularly in upland and marginal areas where alternatives to grazing are limited.

The debate highlights the growing tension between climate targets and food production in Wales, with livestock farming remaining a central part of the rural economy and Welsh cultural identity.

As discussions continue over the final shape of the Sustainable Farming Scheme and Wales’ long-term climate plans, pressure is mounting on the Welsh Government to reassure farmers that climate policy will not come at the expense of the sector’s survival.

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Farming

FUW Insurance Services appoints Paul Jameson as non-executive director

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Experienced insurance and risk specialist joins board as long-serving director retires

FUW INSURANCE SERVICS LTD, Wales’ leading specialist agricultural insurance broker, has announced the appointment of Dr Paul Jameson as a non-executive director.

Dr Jameson brings extensive experience in insurance and risk management, having worked as an actuary and senior executive within subsidiaries of major global insurers including Allianz, Munich Re, Legal & General and Wakam. He has held chief risk officer roles since 2020.

During his career, Dr Jameson has led multidisciplinary teams spanning actuarial services, risk management, compliance, audit, legal and marketing approvals, giving him broad experience in both strategic oversight and operational governance.

Speaking following his appointment, Dr Jameson, who lives in Colwyn Bay, North Wales, said he was looking forward to supporting the farming sector in Wales.

He said: “I am delighted to join FUW Insurance Services and would like to thank Ann, Guto and the rest of the team for their warm welcome.

“I have been impressed by the passion and commitment of the board to the farming community, and by its ambition to grow and diversify the insurance business. I am keen to support the farming profession and help ensure the continued success of the sector in Wales, particularly during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

“I hope my experience in the insurance sector will help the business build on its successes and continue to grow, especially as it explores new commercial opportunities and innovative avenues for expansion.”

Ann Beynon OBE, chair of the FUW Insurance Services board, said Dr Jameson’s expertise would be a significant asset to the organisation.

She said: “We are delighted to welcome Dr Paul Jameson to the board. His depth of experience in insurance and his understanding of risk management will be invaluable as we continue to develop and diversify our services.

“Paul’s insight and strategic perspective will help us navigate a changing insurance market, identify new opportunities for innovation and growth, and strengthen the services we provide to our customers.”

Dr Jameson’s appointment follows the retirement of Ken Isherwood, who has stepped down from the board after more than a decade of service.

Paying tribute, Ann Beynon said: “Ken’s integrity, wisdom and deep knowledge of the insurance industry have underpinned much of our success.

“It has been a privilege to work alongside him, and we wish him every happiness in his well-earned retirement.”

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Community

Badger Trust launches manifesto ahead of 2026 Senedd elections

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THE BADGER TRUST has published a new Cymru Badger Manifesto calling on candidates standing in the 2026 Senedd elections to commit to a science-led approach to bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and to maintain Wales’ current policy of not culling badgers.

The manifesto, released on Wednesday (Dec 10) as part of the charity’s Badgers Belong Here / Mae Moch Daear yn Perthyn Yma campaign, sets out the organisation’s position on badger protection, wildlife crime and bTB control, and urges politicians to reject calls for the reintroduction of culling in Wales.

Badger Trust argues that political decisions taken during the next Senedd term will be critical to the future of badgers, which it describes as culturally and ecologically significant to Wales. The charity says badgers have been present in Wales for more than 250,000 years and remain part of Welsh folklore, place names and rural identity.

Five key commitments

The manifesto outlines five commitments the charity is asking Senedd candidates to support, including defending what it describes as science-led policy on bTB, challenging misinformation in public debate, strengthening enforcement against wildlife crime, recognising badgers as part of Welsh heritage, and supporting local volunteer badger groups.

According to Badger Trust, 140 incidents of badger-related wildlife crime have been recorded in Wales since 2020, which it says highlights the need for improved reporting and enforcement.

The charity also points to the work of six active badger groups across Wales, which it says assist with rescuing injured animals, monitoring setts, recording road casualties and supporting local authorities.

bTB policy in Wales and England

Wales has not carried out widespread badger culling as part of its bTB control strategy, instead focusing on cattle testing, biosecurity measures and herd management.

Badger Trust claims that new herd incidents of bTB in Wales fell by more than 40% between 2010 and 2024, which it attributes to cattle-based controls rather than wildlife intervention.

The charity contrasts this with England, where it says almost 250,000 badgers have been culled over the past decade as part of bTB control programmes. It argues that bTB rates in England remain higher than in Wales and that the evidence does not show culling alone to be responsible for reductions in disease.

Disputed claims over culling

The manifesto challenges the frequently cited claim that badger culling in England led to a 56% reduction in bTB in cattle. Badger Trust says this figure has been misinterpreted and that studies cited in support of culling also involved additional measures such as enhanced cattle testing and biosecurity.

The charity points to statements from researchers and official correspondence which, it says, indicate that reductions in bTB cannot be attributed solely to culling.

Supporters of culling, including some farming groups, continue to argue that wildlife control should remain an option as part of a wider disease management strategy, particularly in areas with persistent infection. The Welsh Government has previously said it keeps its bTB policy under review in line with emerging evidence.

Call to candidates

Nigel Palmer, CEO of Badger Trust, said Wales demonstrated that bTB could be tackled without killing wildlife.

He said: “Wales is a world-leading example of how to address bovine TB through evidence-based policy. The progress made here shows that culling is not necessary, and we urge Senedd candidates to stand by the science.”

The manifesto is available in both Welsh and English and will be circulated to political parties and candidates ahead of the 2026 election.

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