Farming
Confidence drops as markets stay volatile
INCREASED volatility and falling commodity prices across the sectors have seen farmers’ confidence drop to lower levels than last year, a new survey by the NFU has revealed. Confidence, specifically in the arable and dairy sectors, has declined significantly from 12 months ago, but farmers across the industry have told NFU that the three-year forecast is much more positive. As part of our sixth annual confidence survey, members told the NFU that they expected negative impacts on their businesses in the coming year relating to regulation and legislation (69%); CAP reform (51%); output prices (56%) and input prices (46%). Output prices are the second most important factor affecting confidence, as members have seen their margins squeezed as a result of the fall in farmgate prices greater than the reduction in their costs of production.
The survey also shows that in the last two years twice as many farmers have seen their profits declining, with 49% of respondents now reporting declining profits (42% last year). Some 7% think their business may not survive – the highest figure in any year so far. Those figures were even more worrying in the dairy sector, where almost 20% of dairy respondents declared that their business may not survive, a rise from 3% in 2014. NFU President Meurig Raymond said: “This year has seen British farming face massive challenges, not least of all falling farmgate prices, particularly within the dairy and arable sectors. “Given the levels of volatility we have seen across the industry it is no surprise that we have seen farmer confidence in the negative.
It shows very clearly that we are absolutely correct to urge Defra and RPA to make every effort to speed delivery of BPS payments and that we press processors and retailers for a fairer return for the highquality food that farmers supply. “Regulation remains the key blocker for our members’ confidence. This gives a clear message that government must to do all that it can to ease regulatory pressure. Confidence is critical because it influences investment and production intentions. If we want our farms to compete in an increasingly global market place and make the most of emerging export opportunities, we need government action rather than rhetoric when it comes to reducing red tape. This is why NFU is calling for action in 2016 to reduce the frequency of farm inspections and improve their coordination.
“Our research has shown that looking forward, farmers have a generally optimistic outlook on their medium-term prospects. The government has a golden opportunity, in its 25-year Food and Farming Strategy, to map the course for a more confident and profitable industry. The NFU urges government, retailers and the public to back British farming to ensure this optimism is not misplaced.” More farmers said they want to invest in diversification, training and energy efficiency in the three years to come. Those intentions are backed by the higher levels of borrowing in agriculture registered for the first nine months of the year.
The volatility of markets was a key part of evidence given by the NFU to House of Lords committee on December 16. The NFU has given evidence to a group of Peers on how agricultural price volatility impacts farm businesses. Head of food and farming Phil Bicknell appeared before the House of Lords Energy and Environment Sub- Committee as part of its enquiry into market prices and wider resilience among farmers. It follows a similar enquiry being held by MPs on the House of Commons Efra Select Committee into farmgate prices.
With volatility characterising most agricultural markets, and the associated pressures on cash flow, profitability and long term business planning, the committee heard about the challenges of price volatility faced by NFU members. Mr Bicknell emphasised that sustained price volatility risks the viability of farm businesses, leads to reduced investment levels, and is a challenge for the whole food supply chain rather than just a farming issue.
He said: “Volatility is an ever increasing characteristic of agricultural markets, particularly as we’ve seen farm policy back away from market management and control to less marketdistorting policy tools. “Farming is a very resilient industry. Our industry is made up of farmers who are past masters at dealing with anything that’s thrown at them – whether that’s periods of low prices or the recent devastating floods that hit farming communities in Northern England. “But it’s important that we’re an industry that thrives rather than just survives and is geared up for future food production. A boom and bust cycle of prices benefits can be damaging in the long run.”
Farming
Judicial review granted for hundreds of farmers and landowners in Wales
OVER three hundred Welsh farmers and landowners have been granted the right to legally challenge Green GEN Cymru’s ‘unlawful behaviour’ at the High Court.
The collective filed a judicial review application on behalf of the community groups, Justice for Wales and CPRW, on four separate grounds, including claims that the energy company has acted unlawfully and with disregard for biosecurity and the environment, while trying to gain access to private land to conduct surveys for three major overhead pylon routes.
The proposal will see the energy infrastructure and pylons spanning 200 km across Powys, Ceredigion, Carmarthen, and Montgomeryshire in Wales and across the Welsh border into Shropshire, in the West Midlands of England.

Mrs Justice Jefford granted permission on four grounds – including abuse of power and procedural impropriety – during the three-and-a-half-hour hearing at Cardiff Civil Justice Centre on Tuesday, January 20.
A two-day hearing is expected to take place in April 2026, date to be confirmed.
The judge also accepted an undertaking from Green GEN Cymru that it would not enter land using s.172 powers – the right given to acquiring authorities to enter land to conduct surveys or valuations under the Housing and Planning Act 2016 – until an urgent interim relief application hearing can be held.
Natalie Barstow, founder of Justice for Wales, said: “This is a moment of vindication. For months, we have been left feeling unsafe in our own homes and stripped of our power as farmers and landowners.
“This is not a protest against renewable energy; this is about standing up for what is right. Our right to dignity and to have a voice, and for the future of our land, wildlife, and livelihoods.
“Since we began this battle, hundreds of other farmers and landowners across Wales have come forward with similar stories, and we’ve been supported by many generous donations to fund the legal challenge. We knew we weren’t alone in our concerns, but the response demonstrates it is a far wider issue than we initially feared, and why it is so important that Green GEN’s conduct and protocols are properly scrutinised.
“We said we will not be bullied into submission, and this judgment is just the first foot forward in our fight for justice.”
Mary Smith, a lawyer at New South Law, the law firm representing the impacted communities, said: “Holding acquiring authority status does not entitle a company to disregard the limits of its statutory powers or the rights of the people affected.
“The Court’s decision confirms that Green GEN Cymru must be held to the same legal standards as any other public body when exercising intrusive powers over private land. This case is about restoring fairness, accountability, and respect for the communities whose livelihoods and environments are at stake.”
Farming
New rules to make Welsh lamb pricing clearer set to begin next week
Mandatory carcass grading and price reporting will be required in slaughterhouses from Wednesday, January 28
WELSH sheep farmers are set to see new rules introduced next week aimed at making the lamb market fairer and more transparent.
From Wednesday (Jan 28), slaughterhouses in Wales will be required to classify sheep carcasses and report prices using a standardised system. The Welsh Government says the move will improve consistency in grading, make price information easier to compare, and help build confidence for farmers selling stock.

Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies announced the change during the Farmers’ Union of Wales (FUW) Farmhouse Breakfast event at the Norwegian Church in Cardiff.
He said the measures would support the industry by ensuring a consistent methodology for classifying carcasses in slaughterhouses, promoting transparency, fairness and productivity within the sheep market.
“Our iconic Welsh lamb is celebrated around the world for its outstanding quality and high production standards,” he said. “These measures will implement a consistent methodology for classifying sheep carcasses in slaughterhouses, promoting transparency, fairness, and increased productivity within the sheep market.”
The regulations bring the sheep sector into line with rules already used for beef and pork.
Hybu Cig Cymru – Meat Promotion Wales chief executive José Peralta said the changes would allow for greater data capture and analysis and improve transparency within the supply chain.
He said: “The new regulations, which now align with a similar position for cattle and pigs, will allow for greater data capture and analysis to be undertaken and support increased transparency within the sector. As a sector we must seek all opportunities for greater transparency within the supply chain to ensure that choices can be made from an informed position.”
The Welsh Government says the new approach is part of a wider UK framework, with similar arrangements already operating elsewhere.
During his address, the Deputy First Minister also pointed to further changes expected in 2026, including the planned introduction of the Sustainable Farming Scheme, which the Welsh Government describes as a new partnership between the people of Wales and farmers.
The scheme is intended to support the sustainable production of food while also responding to the climate and nature emergency.
The Welsh Government has also confirmed its commitment to financial support during the transition, with up to £238 million committed to the Universal layer and the legacy Basic Payment Scheme in 2026.
Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies said: “I would like to reiterate the Welsh Government’s commitment to supporting Welsh family farms, not just in the short term but also in the long run. Our goal is to prioritise stability for the farming industry, ensuring to balance this with sustainability at its very core.”
He added that supporting farmers through the change would be a priority, with consistent advice and support offered across the sector.
Building fairness within the agricultural supply chain remains a key Welsh Government priority, which it says is also integral to food security.
Farming
Natural Resources Wales urges farmers to follow safe slurry spreading rules
NRW is reminding farmers across Wales to take key steps to prevent pollution as the organic manure spreading season re-opens.
During the autumn and winter “closed periods”, restrictions were in place to stop slurry and other high-nitrogen manures being spread, helping reduce the risk of agricultural pollution.
Grassland spreading can resume from Thursday (Jan 16), with spreading on tillage land re-opening on Friday (Jan 31). However, NRW said a number of controls under the Control of Agricultural Pollution Regulations (CoAPR) will remain in force until the end of February.
Those restrictions include limits on application rates — no more than 30m³ of slurry per hectare, or eight tonnes of poultry manure, in a single application — with at least three weeks required between applications.
Before spreading organic manure, producers must also carry out field inspections to assess weather and soil conditions, slope, ground cover and proximity to watercourses, to help reduce the risk of runoff.
Farm businesses are expected to plan and record all applications in their Nitrogen Management Plan to ensure nutrients match soil and crop need and remain within nitrogen limits.
Spreading is prohibited on waterlogged, flooded, snow-covered or frozen ground — including soil that has been frozen for more than 12 hours in the previous 24 hours.
NRW said its teams will continue to support farmers while monitoring compliance.
Simon Griffiths, team leader of NRW’s Agricultural Pollution Inspection Team, said: “As the closed periods come to an end, we want to remind farmers, tenants, landlords and contractors of the restrictions which remain in place until the end of February.
“This means anyone considering spreading organic manure needs to ensure the conditions are suitable before work starts.
“NRW is committed to protecting the environment and any instances of pollution will be investigated and appropriate enforcement action taken.”
NRW is urging farmers and members of the public to report pollution incidents immediately via its online “report it” form or by calling 0300 065 3000.
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