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UKIP surge in opinion polls

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Neil Hamilton: Thought to be a mid and west regional Assembly candidate

Neil Hamilton: Thought to be a mid and west regional Assembly candidate

IN SPITE of a troubled Assembly election campaign, the failure of the National Executive to ratify any candidates as we move within three months of the elections and the resignation of a UKIP councillor in protest over the parachuting in of prominent UKIP members onto the regional lists, the party has increased their projected vote share to 18% according to a recent poll.

If this was replicated on voting day, it would lead to UKIP gaining nine regional Assembly seats – including two in mid and west Wales.

Support for Labour has slipped to 31%, which is around 10% lower than in the run-up to the 2011 elections, where the party gained 30 seats and formed a minority government.

The party is currently predicted to win 27 seats, of which two are regional, leaving them four seats short of a majority. However, support for both Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Conservatives appears to be unchanged, beyond the 1% margin of error, meaning that the parties look likely to win 10 and 12 seats respectively. This would mean that, if these figures were reflected on voting day, it would take a coalition of Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives, and UKIP to gain a working majority.

YouGov shows consistently higher levels of support for UKIP than other polls. At the last election it showed significantly higher shares of the vote for both Labour and UKIP than were actually returned in the election poll. However, surveys suggest that UKIP voters and Plaid Cymru voters are more likely to vote that Conservative, Liberal Democrat, and Labour voters.

It is unlikely that Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives would work in a coalition together. Leanne Wood, Adam Price and Helen Mary Jones – all of whom advised against the ‘rainbow coalition’ in 2007, are likely to be elected to the Assembly.

While the Welsh Conservatives have not yet announced their intentions regarding EU membership, leader Andrew RT Davies has said that there need to be an open discussion about the subject. This, allied with remarks he made at the Conservative Party conference last year in which he asked for England to ‘take Mark Reckless back’ would seem to indicate that a Conservative UKIP coalition would be unlikely.

Plaid Cymru are ideologically opposed to UKIP on several key points including EU membership. In addition, the party lost seats following a coalition with Labour. It is hard to see how a coalition with the Conservatives and UKIP would not cost them far more, especially as the party is the only one in Wales to call itself socialist.

A return to the 2007 One Wales coalition between Plaid Cymru and Labour has been predicted by some pundits. However, some campaigners during the 2015 General Election claimed that overt support given to Ed Milliband’s Labour government cost the party dearly on the doorstep. Andrew RT Davies has already begun to make political capital out of this, casting his party as the only alternative to a Welsh Labour-led administration.

It is hard to understand why UKIP has delayed in announcing candidates, when at least two south west Wales branches held local hustings before Christmas. UKIP are highly unlikely to win any constituency seats in the area, and the suspicion remains that, with the probable exception of Neil Hamilton in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, local party members will stand for the constituencies, while the more winnable regional seats will be contested by more high-profile candidates, such as Mr Reckless and UKIP press officer Alexandra Phillips.

The Herald asked UKIP for a statement regarding its candidates over two weeks ago. That request, addressed to Alexandra Philips as UKIP Wales’ Press Officer, was not favoured with either an acknowledgement or response,

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Fewer road casualties recorded in first year of Wales’ 20mph speed limit

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THE FIRST year of Wales’ controversial 20mph speed limit saw around 100 fewer people killed or seriously injured on roads previously subject to 30mph restrictions, according to government figures.

New data on road casualties was cautiously welcomed by the Welsh Government, while former transport minister Lee Waters, who led the policy, described it as “the most successful road safety intervention in modern times.”

Statistics indicate that road casualties on 20mph and 30mph roads fell by 26% compared to the previous year, with ten fewer fatalities recorded. The period from July to September 2024 saw the lowest number of casualties on these roads since records began in 1979.

Policy controversy and review

The default speed limit on most urban roads was lowered from 30mph to 20mph on 17 September 2023, with certain exemptions in place. Introduced under former First Minister Mark Drakeford, the policy has been one of the most divisive initiatives since Welsh devolution, with nearly half a million people signing a petition demanding its repeal.

Public backlash prompted a review, and councils are now considering whether some roads should revert to 30mph. The Welsh Government has also commissioned a five-year study assessing the economic costs and benefits of the scheme, with findings expected in 2029.

Cautious optimism over casualty reduction

Government officials have urged caution in directly linking casualty reductions to the 20mph limit, noting that road collisions have been steadily declining over the past decade. The Welsh Government’s chief statistician has stated that at least three years of data are needed for a meaningful analysis of the policy’s long-term impact.

Figures released on Wednesday show that between July and September 2024, 410 road casualties were recorded on 20mph and 30mph roads. These included three fatalities, 90 serious injuries, and 317 minor injuries—a 35% reduction compared to the same period in 2023 and the lowest figures on record.

Over the full 12 months from October 2023 to September 2024, road casualties on these roads were 28% lower than the previous year.

Political reaction

Current Transport Secretary Ken Skates said the trend was “encouraging” and reiterated that the full effects of the policy would take time to assess.

“We know there is a way to go, and we’ve always said it will take a number of years to see the full impact of the policy,” he said. “But to see the figures for this quarter at their lowest level is positive.”

Former minister Lee Waters, now a Labour backbencher, told Herald.Wales: “We can now say with confidence that in its first year, the speed limit reduction represents the most successful road safety intervention in modern times.”

However, the policy has divided opinion both within the Labour Party and among the wider public. First Minister Eluned Morgan has acknowledged that there were issues with its implementation.

The Welsh Conservatives remain critical of the rollout. Shadow Transport Secretary Peter Fox said: “While we welcome any decrease in road casualties, these figures don’t tell the whole story. Our concern remains the way the 20mph speed limit has been implemented.

“The Welsh Labour Government’s default approach has created confusion and frustration for drivers. Their current review must address these implementation issues and ensure a more sensible and effective approach.”

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Boundary Commission publishes final recommendations for Pembrokeshire

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THE DEMOCRACY and Boundary Commission Cymru has published its Final Recommendations for the future community arrangements for Pembrokeshire.

The recommendations follow two periods of public engagement, which saw many representations made on Pembrokeshire’s community arrangements.

These include the number of community and town councils, their boundaries, and the number of councillors within each community.

The overriding aim of the review was to ensure effective and convenient local government. 

Part of this is to ensure that representation on town and community councils is, as far as is practicable, similar across all councils in Pembrokeshire.

The Final Recommendations Report contains all of the Commission’s recommendations for Pembrokeshire.  Where it has made changes to the existing arrangements a description of the change, the representations received, the reasons for change and a map of the recommendations are contained in the report.

The Final Recommendations Report has been submitted to Welsh Government Ministers, and it is now for Welsh Government to decide how to proceed. Usually they will make an Order.

Any changes included in the Order will come into effect at the next Local Government elections in 2027.

County Councillor Neil Prior, Cabinet Member for Communities, Corporate Improvement, and the Well-being of Future Generations said:

“We would like to thank the Commission for the thorough and balanced work undertaken throughout the review.  We would also like to thank the organisations and individuals who took the time to make representations during both periods of consultation.

“As the Welsh Government take the next steps, changes will be implemented in 2027 for the next round of local elections.”

The Pembrokeshire Community Review’s final recommendations propose specific changes to community boundaries and electoral arrangements to better reflect local identities and improve governance. Key proposed changes include:

  • Amalgamation of Communities: The communities of Ambleston and Spittal are recommended to merge into a single community named “Spittal,” comprising two wards: Ambleston and Spittal.
  • Boundary Adjustments: Several communities, including Clydau, Crymych, Eglwyswrw, and Boncath, are proposed to have boundary modifications to better align with local identities and improve electoral parity.
  • Community Ward Changes: In the community of Fishguard and Goodwick, it’s recommended to replace the existing Fishguard North East and Fishguard North West wards with a single “Fishguard” ward, and to rename the Goodwick ward to “Goodwick and Harbour.”
  • Councillor Representation: Adjustments in the number of councillors are proposed for various communities to ensure fair representation. For instance, the new Spittal community would have a total of 12 councillors, with 5 representing the Ambleston ward and 7 representing the Spittal ward.

These recommendations aim to ensure effective and convenient local governance, reflecting the evolving needs and identities of Pembrokeshire’s communities.

The Final Recommendations can be found on the Commission’s website: https://www.dbcc.gov.wales/reviews/01-25/pembrokeshire-community-review-final-recommendations

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Kurtz challenges Welsh Government on skilled jobs

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SAMUEL KURTZ, Member of the Senedd for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, has pressed First Minister Eluned Morgan on how the Welsh Government plans to meet the skilled employment demands of emerging industries and technologies.

Speaking in the Senedd, Kurtz emphasised Pembrokeshire’s strong industrial heritage and the continued importance of the hydrocarbon sector, including Valero oil refinery and RWE power station. He highlighted new opportunities arising from the Celtic Freeport and potential investment in Floating Off-Shore Wind, which could bring renewed prosperity to the region.

Following the plenary session, Kurtz said: “Pembrokeshire is home to a diverse mix of established and emerging industries, and it is vital that our workforce has the flexibility to transition into the jobs of the future.

“Businesses understand their needs better than anyone, so the Welsh Government must engage directly with the industries that will be creating these opportunities.

“It is unacceptable that the Welsh Labour Government has yet to present a clear plan to support workers in traditional industries should they wish to reskill. Their slow response is damaging investment, harming businesses, and failing those whose future careers depend on decisive action.”

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