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Politics

First Welsh poll of year shows ‘Boris Bounce’

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PROFESSOR Roger Awan Scully writes: As the UK stands on the verge of leaving the European Union, voters are currently rewarding the man who has led them to this point, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His Conservative Party is at historic levels of support in Wales, and potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election. There are the key messages to emerge from the first Welsh Political Barometer poll of 2020, the first since the general election.
Our new poll, as is typically the case, asked about voting intentions for both Westminster and the National Assembly. For the first time, though, and in light of the recent legislation that has given 16 and 17-year-olds the right to vote in devolved elections in Wales, our sample included a representative number from that age group; they are not included in the vote intention estimates for a general election discussed below, but they are included in the estimates for the Assembly.

First, Westminster. After the strong Conservative performance in December and the further boost they have had in post-election polls conducted across Britain, it is no surprise to see the Tories doing well in our latest poll. Here are the numbers (with changes on our last pre-election Barometer poll, conducted in early December, in brackets):

Conservatives: 41% (+4)
Labour: 36% (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-2)
Greens: 2% (+1)
Others: 1 (no change)

These are historically good figures for the Conservatives in Wales. Their 41 percent support equals the highest rating they have obtained in general election voting intention this century. Labour, by contrast, see their support slip since the general election. Plaid Cymru will be reasonably pleased with a modest rise in their support; all other parties, however, are at very low levels of support.

What might such support levels for the parties mean in terms of parliamentary seats? Using the standard method, of projecting the swings since the last general election indicated by this poll uniformly across Wales, gives us the following outcome in terms of seats (with projected changes from the December result in brackets):

Labour: 18 (-4)
Conservatives: 18 (+4)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)

In short, this poll projects the Conservative to retain all six seats that they gained from Labour at the general election, and on top of that to gain four more ones: Alyn and Deeside, Gower, Newport East and Newport West. All other seats are projected to be won by the party that was victorious in December.

But it is not only changes at Westminster that are suggested by our new poll.

As well as Westminster, we also asked once again about voting intentions for both the constituency and the regional ballots in a devolved election. Here are the figures for the constituency ballot (with shifts in support since our December Barometer poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 35% (+4)
Labour: 33% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Brexit Party: 4% (-3)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Others: 1% (no change)

These numbers (which include figures for 16 and 17-year-old voters, something that marginally reduces the Conservative lead) show that the current post-election boost to Conservative fortunes is not just confined to Westminster. The 35 percent support reported for the Conservatives is actually their highest ever reported vote intention for the constituency vote in an Assembly election. If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election our new Barometer poll projects the Tories to gain eight constituency seats from Labour: these are (in order of current marginality) the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Newport West, and Delyn). There are no other projected constituency seat changes.

For the regional list vote, the new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes since our December poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 32% (+4)
Labour: 32% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Greens: 3% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-4)
Others: 5% (+1)

These regional vote figures once more have the Welsh Conservatives equalling their best-ever showing, from early May 2017. Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once more assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
Regions:

North Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
These figures therefore generate the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:
Labour: 24 seats (19 constituency, 5 regional)
Conservatives: 22 seats (14 constituency, 8 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituencies, 7 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)

Since the inaugural election to the National Assembly in 1999, Labour has always much been the largest party in the chamber. Our new poll indicates that, around fifteen months from the next devolved election in Wales, we are currently on course for a rather different type of politics in what will soon to be known as Senedd Cymru/the Welsh Parliament.
Overall, our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll suggests that these are good times in which to be a Welsh Conservative. Indeed, those times have never been better: on all three vote intention measures, the party is equalling or exceeding the best ratings they have ever scored before. But if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted. Last May the Welsh Tories scored only 6.5 percent of the vote in the European elections; now they are buoyant. Within another few months, who knows where things will be?

Business

Computer gaming lounge plans for Tenby cinema submitted

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FORMAL plans to turn Tenby’s former Poundland and Royal Playhouse cinema to a retro computer gaming lounge have been submitted to the national park.

Following a takeover by investment firm Gordon Brothers, Poundland shut 57 stores earlier this year, including Tenby’s branch on White Lion Street.

In an application to Pembrokeshire Coast National Park, Matthew Mileson of Newport-based MB Games Ltd, seeks permission for a change of use of the former Gatehouse (Playhouse) Cinema, most recently used as a Poundland store to a retro gaming lounge.

This follows a recently submitted application for a ‘CONTINUE? Retro Gaming Lounge’ sign on the front of the former cinema, ahead of the wider scheme for a retro gaming facility at the former cinema site, which has a Grade-II-listed front façade.

A supporting statement for the change of use scheme through agent Asbri Planning Ltd says: “The proposed retro gaming lounge will be inviting to all ages, including families, groups and individuals with no age restriction. The applicant has several similar premises across other parts of the UK and operates under a successful business model.

“This includes a fee being payable to enter the premises which thereby grants access to unlimited game time to all consoles/arcade machines. There will be no slot or coin-based reward games, so the proposal would not be considered/classed as gambling. The site will provide snacks and drinks (including alcohol) which will be canned/bottled drinks.

“The sale of such drinks would be ancillary to the overall function of the premises, and a separate alcohol licence will be submitted, accordingly.”

It adds: “The development would provide a much-welcomed addition to White Lion Rd which will improve the vitality and viability of the immediate area by promoting greater levels of footfall within the area and introduce greater variety to the shopping frontage at this location.”

It proposes opening hours of 10-10, Sunday to Thursday, and to 11pm on Fridays and Saturdays.

The application, and the related signage scheme, will be considered by park planners at a later date.

Prior to being a Poundland, the site was the Royal Playhouse, which had its final curtain in early 2011 after running for nearly a century.

The cinema had been doing poor business after the opening of a multiplex in Carmarthen; in late 2010 the opening night of the-then latest Harry Potter blockbuster only attracted an audience of 12 people.

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Business

Cosheston Garden Centre expansion approved by planners

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PLANS to upgrade a garden centre on the main road to Pembroke Dock have been given the go-ahead.

In an application to Pembrokeshire County Council, submitted through agent Hayston Developments & Planning Ltd, Mr and Mrs Wainwright sought permission for upgrade of a garden centre with a relocated garden centre sales area, additional parking and the creation of ornamental pond and wildlife enhancement area (partly in retrospect) at Cosheston Garden Centre, Slade Cross, Cosheston.

The application was a resubmission of a previously refused scheme, with the retrospective aspects of the works starting in late 2023.

The site has a long planning history, and started life as a market garden and turkey farm in the 1980s, and then a number of applications for new development.

A supporting statement says the previously-refused application included setting aside a significant part of the proposed new building for general retail sales as a linked farm shop and local food store/deli in addition to a coffee bar.

It was refused on the grounds of “the proposal was deemed to be contrary to retail policies and the likely impact of that use on the vitality and viability of nearby centres,” the statement said, adding: “Secondly, in noting that vehicular access was off the A 477 (T) the Welsh Government raised an objection on the grounds that insufficient transport information had been submitted in respect of traffic generation and highway safety.”

It said the new scheme seeks to address those issues; the development largely the same with the proposed new garden centre building now only proposed to accommodate a relocated garden centre display sales area rather than a new retail sales area with other goods, but retaining a small ancillary coffee bar area.

“Additional information, in the form of an independent and comprehensive Transport Statement, has now been submitted to address the objection raised by the Welsh Government in respect of highway safety,” the statement said.

It conceded: “It is acknowledged that both the creation of the ornamental pond and ‘overspill’ parking area do not have the benefit of planning permission and therefore these aspects of the application are ‘in retrospect’ and seeks their retention.”

It finished: “Essentially, this proposal seeks to upgrade existing facilities and offer to the general public. It includes the ‘relocation’ of a previously existing retail display area which had been ‘lost’ to the ornamental pond/amenity area and to provide this use within the proposed new building and moves away from the previously proposed ‘farm shop’ idea which we thought had merit.

“This revised proposal therefore involves an ‘upgrading’ rather than an ‘expansion’ of the existing garden centre use.”

An officer report recommending approval said that, while the scheme would still be in the countryside rather than within a settlement boundary, the range of goods sold would be “typical of the type of goods sold in a garden centre and which could be sold elsewhere within the garden centre itself,” adding: “Unlike the recent planning application refused permission it is not intended to sell delicatessen goods, dried food, fruit and vegetables, pet products and gifts.”

It added that a transport statement provided had been reviewed by the Welsh Government, which did not object on highway grounds subject to conditions on any decision notice relating to visibility splays and parking facilities.

The application was conditionally approved.

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Business

Tenby Poundland site could become retro gaming lounge

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TENBY’S former Poundland and Royal Playhouse cinema could become a retro computer gaming lounge, plans submitted to the national park hope.

Following a takeover by investment firm Gordon Brothers, Poundland shut 57 stores earlier this year, including Tenby.

Prior to being a Poundland, the site was the Royal Playhouse, which had its final curtain in early 2011 after running for nearly a century.

The cinema had been doing poor business after the opening of a multiplex in Carmarthen; in late 2010 the opening night of the-then latest Harry Potter blockbuster only attracted an audience of 12 people.

In an application to Pembrokeshire Coast National Park, Matthew Mileson of Newport-based MB Games Ltd, seeks permission for a ‘CONTINUE? Retro Gaming Lounge’ sign on the front of the former Gatehouse (Playhouse) Cinema, White Lion Street, most recently used as a Poundland store.

The signage plans form part of a wider scheme for a retro gaming facility at the former cinema site, which has a Grade-II-listed front facade, a supporting statement through agent Asbri Planning Ltd says.

“The subject site is located within the settlement of Tenby along White Lion St. The site was formerly the Gatehouse Cinema and currently operates as a Poundland discount store, which closed on October 18.”

It adds: “This application forms part of a wider scheme for the change of use to the former Gatehouse Cinema. Advertisement consent is sought for a non-illuminated aluminium composite folded panel that will be bolted onto the front façade of the proposed building, in replacement of the existing signage (Poundland).”

It stresses: “It is considered that the proposed advertisement will not have a detrimental impact on the quality of the environment, along with being within a proportionate scale of the building. It is considered that the proposed signage will reflect site function.

“Furthermore, due to the sympathetic scale and design of the sign itself, it is considered that the proposal will not result in any adverse visual amenity impacts.

“The proposal is reduced in sized compared to the existing Poundland advertisement. The sign will not be illuminated. Given the above it is considered that such proportionate signate in association with the proposed retro gaming lounge is acceptable and does not adversely affect visual amenity.”

An application for a retro gaming lounge by MB Games Ltd was recently given the go-ahead in Swansea.

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