Politics
First Welsh poll of year shows ‘Boris Bounce’
PROFESSOR Roger Awan Scully writes: As the UK stands on the verge of leaving the European Union, voters are currently rewarding the man who has led them to this point, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His Conservative Party is at historic levels of support in Wales, and potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election. There are the key messages to emerge from the first Welsh Political Barometer poll of 2020, the first since the general election.
Our new poll, as is typically the case, asked about voting intentions for both Westminster and the National Assembly. For the first time, though, and in light of the recent legislation that has given 16 and 17-year-olds the right to vote in devolved elections in Wales, our sample included a representative number from that age group; they are not included in the vote intention estimates for a general election discussed below, but they are included in the estimates for the Assembly.
First, Westminster. After the strong Conservative performance in December and the further boost they have had in post-election polls conducted across Britain, it is no surprise to see the Tories doing well in our latest poll. Here are the numbers (with changes on our last pre-election Barometer poll, conducted in early December, in brackets):
Conservatives: 41% (+4)
Labour: 36% (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-2)
Greens: 2% (+1)
Others: 1 (no change)
These are historically good figures for the Conservatives in Wales. Their 41 percent support equals the highest rating they have obtained in general election voting intention this century. Labour, by contrast, see their support slip since the general election. Plaid Cymru will be reasonably pleased with a modest rise in their support; all other parties, however, are at very low levels of support.
What might such support levels for the parties mean in terms of parliamentary seats? Using the standard method, of projecting the swings since the last general election indicated by this poll uniformly across Wales, gives us the following outcome in terms of seats (with projected changes from the December result in brackets):
Labour: 18 (-4)
Conservatives: 18 (+4)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)
In short, this poll projects the Conservative to retain all six seats that they gained from Labour at the general election, and on top of that to gain four more ones: Alyn and Deeside, Gower, Newport East and Newport West. All other seats are projected to be won by the party that was victorious in December.
But it is not only changes at Westminster that are suggested by our new poll.
As well as Westminster, we also asked once again about voting intentions for both the constituency and the regional ballots in a devolved election. Here are the figures for the constituency ballot (with shifts in support since our December Barometer poll once again in brackets):
Conservatives: 35% (+4)
Labour: 33% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Brexit Party: 4% (-3)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Others: 1% (no change)
These numbers (which include figures for 16 and 17-year-old voters, something that marginally reduces the Conservative lead) show that the current post-election boost to Conservative fortunes is not just confined to Westminster. The 35 percent support reported for the Conservatives is actually their highest ever reported vote intention for the constituency vote in an Assembly election. If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election our new Barometer poll projects the Tories to gain eight constituency seats from Labour: these are (in order of current marginality) the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Newport West, and Delyn). There are no other projected constituency seat changes.
For the regional list vote, the new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes since our December poll once again in brackets):
Conservatives: 32% (+4)
Labour: 32% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Greens: 3% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-4)
Others: 5% (+1)
These regional vote figures once more have the Welsh Conservatives equalling their best-ever showing, from early May 2017. Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once more assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
Regions:
North Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
These figures therefore generate the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:
Labour: 24 seats (19 constituency, 5 regional)
Conservatives: 22 seats (14 constituency, 8 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituencies, 7 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)
Since the inaugural election to the National Assembly in 1999, Labour has always much been the largest party in the chamber. Our new poll indicates that, around fifteen months from the next devolved election in Wales, we are currently on course for a rather different type of politics in what will soon to be known as Senedd Cymru/the Welsh Parliament.
Overall, our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll suggests that these are good times in which to be a Welsh Conservative. Indeed, those times have never been better: on all three vote intention measures, the party is equalling or exceeding the best ratings they have ever scored before. But if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted. Last May the Welsh Tories scored only 6.5 percent of the vote in the European elections; now they are buoyant. Within another few months, who knows where things will be?
News
County Hall lights up to mark Holocaust Memorial Day
COUNTY HALL in Haverfordwest will be lit in purple on Monday January 27 to mark Holocaust Memorial Day.
This year Holocaust Memorial Day marks the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz-Birkenau, and remembers the six million Jews murdered during the Holocaust and those killed in genocides that followed.
The theme of this year’s commemoration is ‘For a Better Future’ and focuses on what everyone can do to create a better future.
This includes speaking up against Holocaust and genocide denial, challenging prejudice and encouraging others to learn about the Holocaust and more recent genocides.
Pembrokeshire County Council Leader, Cllr Jon Harvey, said: “This year’s Holocaust Memorial Day is particularly poignant as we remember the moments that Auschwitz-Birkenau was liberated and the horrors of the Holocaust revealed to the world.
“We all have an opportunity to take action for a better future. A better future where people are not suffering prejudice or persecution because of their faith, ethnicity or other characteristic.”
Council Presiding Member, Cllr Simon Hancock added: “On Holocaust Memorial Day, we remember the Jewish victims of the Holocaust and all the others who suffered under Nazi persecution and the genocides that have followed.
“As we honour their memories, we also pledge to fight prejudice, discrimination, and antisemitism in society today.”
You can see more information on Holocaust Memorial Day at: https://hmd.org.uk/
News
Pembrokeshire cottage extension expected to be refused
PLANS adapt an outbuilding at a north Pembrokeshire cottage, which has had two previous extensions, to provide additional space for visiting family members are expected to be refused.
In an application recommended for refusal at Pembrokeshire Coast National Park’s development management committee meeting of January 29, Mr and Mrs Lewis seek permission for the park to allow habitable rooms in a consented building, along with a link to the existing dwelling at Lleine, near Moylegrove.
A supporting statemen through agent Harries Planning Design Management says: “This planning application follows a previously submitted planning application for extension to the dwelling and the rebuilding of existing outbuildings.
“It also follows a pre-application advice enquiry for an extension and to allow habitable rooms in the outbuilding and a refusal for an application of a similar nature. Following the refusal, we met with officers at the [national park] offices in Pembroke Dock to discuss a way forward for this proposal given the reason is to enable relatives to stay with the family. We therefore have followed the advice of the officers and provided amended plans following their response.”
An officer report for planners says Lleine, on a minor coastal road linking Newport and Moylegrove, is a traditional single-storey cottage that has been extended on two occasions previously.
It adds: “This application seeks consent to allow habitable rooms in an outbuilding which previously gained planning permission, together with the erection of a link to the existing dwelling. The current application follows the refusal [of a previous application], which also sought consent to allow habitable rooms in the previously consented building, and the construction of a link to the main dwelling.
“It was considered by officers that the proposal represented an over-development of the original dwelling by introducing additional accommodation and built form over and above that which was granted.”
It says that while the revised proposal is smaller, “it is still considered that the further additional built form would be an over-development of the existing dwelling, which already been extended extensively”.
The application has been brought to committee consideration rather than decided by officers at the request of the local councillor.
News
Pembrokeshire Coast Path walkers campsite plans submitted
A CALL to approve a new campsite close to a Neolithic burial chamber for Pembrokeshire coastal path walkers, at which building works have started without permission, has been made to county planners.
In an application to Pembrokeshire County Council, Raffale Colella is seeking partly-retrospective permission for a proposed 12-pitch campsite at Tir Fynhad, New Hill, Goodwick.
The application is partly-retrospective as part of a concrete and timber facilities building for the site, near the chambered tomb of Garn Wen, a scheduled ancient monument on land owned by the applicant, has already been built.
A supporting statement through Johnston Planning Ltd says the applicant “seeks to establish a high-quality, all-season facility which will cater primarily for walkers on the Pembrokeshire coastal Path who currently lack any meaningful accommodation of this nature in the locality”.
It adds: “The scheme proposes some 12 individual camping pitches set on a north-south axis on the site divided by an access track running the length of the facility with the proposed welfare building set midway along the eastern side of the site.
“In this instance the proposal relates to the establishment of new camp site on the periphery of a recognised settlement. The proposal will fulfil a recognised need for low impact and financially competitive tourist accommodation along the Pembrokeshire Coast National Park which is amplified somewhat by the recent restriction of temporary camp sites under the ‘28 day rule’ in the nearby Pembrokeshire Coast National Park (and the anticipated introduction of a similar measure within the plan area).
“The provision of temporary visitor accommodation in this location will lead to increased spend in the settlement of Goodwick helping to underpin the service function of that town and having general indirect benefits in terms of social and economic sustainability.
“Ecologically the development proposes significant enhancement measures in terms of planting that will have clear positive impacts in terms of habitat creation and foraging habitat for a range of inset and animal species.”
The application will be considered by county planners at a later date.
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