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Politics

First Welsh poll of year shows ‘Boris Bounce’

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PROFESSOR Roger Awan Scully writes: As the UK stands on the verge of leaving the European Union, voters are currently rewarding the man who has led them to this point, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His Conservative Party is at historic levels of support in Wales, and potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election. There are the key messages to emerge from the first Welsh Political Barometer poll of 2020, the first since the general election.
Our new poll, as is typically the case, asked about voting intentions for both Westminster and the National Assembly. For the first time, though, and in light of the recent legislation that has given 16 and 17-year-olds the right to vote in devolved elections in Wales, our sample included a representative number from that age group; they are not included in the vote intention estimates for a general election discussed below, but they are included in the estimates for the Assembly.

First, Westminster. After the strong Conservative performance in December and the further boost they have had in post-election polls conducted across Britain, it is no surprise to see the Tories doing well in our latest poll. Here are the numbers (with changes on our last pre-election Barometer poll, conducted in early December, in brackets):

Conservatives: 41% (+4)
Labour: 36% (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-2)
Greens: 2% (+1)
Others: 1 (no change)

These are historically good figures for the Conservatives in Wales. Their 41 percent support equals the highest rating they have obtained in general election voting intention this century. Labour, by contrast, see their support slip since the general election. Plaid Cymru will be reasonably pleased with a modest rise in their support; all other parties, however, are at very low levels of support.

What might such support levels for the parties mean in terms of parliamentary seats? Using the standard method, of projecting the swings since the last general election indicated by this poll uniformly across Wales, gives us the following outcome in terms of seats (with projected changes from the December result in brackets):

Labour: 18 (-4)
Conservatives: 18 (+4)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)

In short, this poll projects the Conservative to retain all six seats that they gained from Labour at the general election, and on top of that to gain four more ones: Alyn and Deeside, Gower, Newport East and Newport West. All other seats are projected to be won by the party that was victorious in December.

But it is not only changes at Westminster that are suggested by our new poll.

As well as Westminster, we also asked once again about voting intentions for both the constituency and the regional ballots in a devolved election. Here are the figures for the constituency ballot (with shifts in support since our December Barometer poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 35% (+4)
Labour: 33% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Brexit Party: 4% (-3)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Others: 1% (no change)

These numbers (which include figures for 16 and 17-year-old voters, something that marginally reduces the Conservative lead) show that the current post-election boost to Conservative fortunes is not just confined to Westminster. The 35 percent support reported for the Conservatives is actually their highest ever reported vote intention for the constituency vote in an Assembly election. If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election our new Barometer poll projects the Tories to gain eight constituency seats from Labour: these are (in order of current marginality) the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Newport West, and Delyn). There are no other projected constituency seat changes.

For the regional list vote, the new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes since our December poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 32% (+4)
Labour: 32% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Greens: 3% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-4)
Others: 5% (+1)

These regional vote figures once more have the Welsh Conservatives equalling their best-ever showing, from early May 2017. Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once more assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
Regions:

North Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
These figures therefore generate the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:
Labour: 24 seats (19 constituency, 5 regional)
Conservatives: 22 seats (14 constituency, 8 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituencies, 7 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)

Since the inaugural election to the National Assembly in 1999, Labour has always much been the largest party in the chamber. Our new poll indicates that, around fifteen months from the next devolved election in Wales, we are currently on course for a rather different type of politics in what will soon to be known as Senedd Cymru/the Welsh Parliament.
Overall, our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll suggests that these are good times in which to be a Welsh Conservative. Indeed, those times have never been better: on all three vote intention measures, the party is equalling or exceeding the best ratings they have ever scored before. But if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted. Last May the Welsh Tories scored only 6.5 percent of the vote in the European elections; now they are buoyant. Within another few months, who knows where things will be?

News

Welsh Lib Dems call for expansion of free childcare across Wales

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THE WELSH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS have pledged to make childcare a central pillar of their platform ahead of the 2026 Senedd elections, with a bold new commitment to offer 30 hours of free childcare per week for all children aged nine months to four years old.

During a visit to Meithrinfa Y Pelican nursery in Cardiff on Thursday (Apr 4), party leader Jane Dodds MS set out the plans ahead of the party’s Spring Conference. She said tackling high childcare costs was essential not only to ease the cost-of-living crisis for families, but also to support the Welsh economy.

“The extortionate cost of childcare is one of the biggest challenges families face,” Dodds said. “It’s not only impacting child poverty rates, but it’s also dragging down our economy and preventing parents – especially women – from pursuing the careers they want.”

Dodds highlighted the party’s recent success in securing £30 million through budget negotiations to expand the Flying Start programme. This funding will provide childcare for all two-year-olds in Wales and increase the hourly rate to support providers. However, she said this was just the beginning.

“If we are in a position to shape government policy after the next election, we will go much further,” she added.

During the visit, nursery staff outlined the challenges facing childcare providers, including rising National Insurance contributions, increased energy and water bills, and general inflation. Many nurseries have had to raise their fees simply to maintain minimum staffing levels.

Dodds emphasised that a vote for the Welsh Liberal Democrats next year would be a vote to reduce childcare costs, help families through the cost-of-living crisis, and stimulate the Welsh economy.

“Every child deserves the best possible start in life, no matter their background,” she said.

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News

Neyland councillor threatens legal action under Equalities Act

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NEYLAND TOWN COUNCIL is once again under scrutiny following a strongly worded letter from Councillor David Devauden, who has accused the Town Clerk of discrimination and threatened multiple legal actions.

Councillor: David Devauden

In an email sent to fellow councillors and members of the public on Tuesday (Apr 1), Cllr Devauden alleges breaches of the Equalities Act 2010, as well as libel and harassment, in connection with ongoing disputes within the council.

Claims of discrimination and legal threats

The email alleges that the Town Clerk, Libby Matthews, has engaged in what Cllr Devauden describes as “the illegal practice of discrimination” against himself and fellow councillors Brian Rothero and Steve Thomas. He claims the Clerk has refused to respond to correspondence and has shown bias in favour of certain councillors.

“This is called OPENNESS, something we, as a Council, were proud to proclaim but failed to act on,” he wrote.

Drawing on his past experience as a part-time paralegal, Cllr Devauden stated he specialised in libel and discrimination law and accused the Clerk of misandry and malicious communications. He claims the complaints against him lacked evidence and were nothing more than “a misandristic rant.”

Ultimatum to Clerk

Cllr Devauden issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Libby Matthews, demanding her resignation “with no compensation and no benefits.” He warned that if she did not comply, he would pursue a case under the Equalities Act 2010 and other legislation.

“If you resign immediately then I will cease taking legal action against the Council,” he stated, though he added he could not guarantee the same for civil proceedings relating to social media posts alleging sexual harassment and excessive email communications.

He also warned of intended complaints to police under the Malicious Communications Act 1988 and the Protection from Harassment Act 1997, and stated his intention to pursue a libel case under the Human Rights Act 1998 if the allegations made against him are not substantiated with evidence.

Tensions continue to mount

The letter follows weeks of controversy surrounding the council, including the co-option of the Clerk’s mother to the council, accusations of secrecy, and increasing public dissatisfaction with council leadership.

As of now, the Town Clerk has not publicly responded to the letter.

Upcoming tribunal

The Pembrokeshire Herald has found that Cllr David Devauden is due to face a tribunal under reference APW/005/2024-025/CT, brought by the Adjudication Panel for Wales.

The hearing relates to alleged breaches of paragraphs 4(b), 4(c), 6(1)(a), 6(1)(d), and 6(2) of the Code of Conduct, which outline the following responsibilities:

  • 4(b): Councillors must show respect and consideration for others.
  • 4(c): Councillors must not use bullying behaviour or harass any person.
  • 6(1)(a): Councillors must not conduct themselves in a manner likely to bring their office or authority into disrepute.
  • 6(1)(d): Councillors must not disclose confidential information contrary to legal or policy obligations.
  • 6(2): Councillors must not make vexatious, malicious or frivolous complaints against others.

The relevant authority is Neyland Town Council. Further details about the hearing are expected to be released in due course.

More referrals expected

A source close to the council has indicated that further referrals to the Adjudication Panel for Wales may be forthcoming, although this has not yet appeared on the public tribunal list.

Former councillor Andrew Lye also stated he has made a police complaint regarding what he describes as bullying by Cllr Devauden. He has expressed frustration over a lack of response from Dyfed-Powys Police and is considering referring the force to the Ombudsman over their handling of the complaint.

The Pembrokeshire Herald will continue to monitor developments and report on the outcome of any legal action or council response.

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News

Cost of living crisis hitting older people hard, warns Commissioner

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NEW data from the Older People’s Commissioner for Wales has revealed growing concern among older people across the country about the rising cost of living, with many being forced to cut back on essentials such as heating and food.

The findings come as household bills are set to rise again this week, sparking fears that older people will be pushed into further hardship, with serious risks to their health and well-being.

Polling carried out on behalf of the Commissioner shows that 90% of older people in Wales are now concerned about energy prices — a rise of nearly 20% compared to last year. Concerns over food prices have also grown, with 82% saying they are worried — up 14% on last year’s figures.

The survey also revealed that 70% of older people have reduced spending on heating their homes, and 60% have cut back on food.

Older People’s Commissioner for Wales, Rhian Bowen-Davies, said the figures paint a bleak picture.

“These findings highlight that there are significant concerns about the cost of living amongst older people across Wales, and that many feel they have no option but to cut back on essentials such as energy or food in order to pay their bills,” she said.

“It’s important to remember what this means in reality – that older people are unable to afford to heat their homes properly or may find themselves going hungry, which both put people’s health at risk.”

She added: “With prices for many things set to rise again this week, these concerns are likely to increase, and people may be forced to cut back even further, creating greater financial pressures, as well as stress and anxiety, which also impacts upon well-being.”

The Commissioner also warned that the loss of the Winter Fuel Payment has worsened the situation, removing a vital source of support for many older people.

“These issues make it more likely that older people will find themselves in vulnerable situations and in need of care and support, which not only have a significant impact on individuals, but also add avoidable costs and pressures to already stretched public services.

“It is vital that the governments in Westminster and Cardiff Bay recognise this and take action to provide support to protect older people from harm.”

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