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Politics

First Welsh poll of year shows ‘Boris Bounce’

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PROFESSOR Roger Awan Scully writes: As the UK stands on the verge of leaving the European Union, voters are currently rewarding the man who has led them to this point, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His Conservative Party is at historic levels of support in Wales, and potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election. There are the key messages to emerge from the first Welsh Political Barometer poll of 2020, the first since the general election.
Our new poll, as is typically the case, asked about voting intentions for both Westminster and the National Assembly. For the first time, though, and in light of the recent legislation that has given 16 and 17-year-olds the right to vote in devolved elections in Wales, our sample included a representative number from that age group; they are not included in the vote intention estimates for a general election discussed below, but they are included in the estimates for the Assembly.

First, Westminster. After the strong Conservative performance in December and the further boost they have had in post-election polls conducted across Britain, it is no surprise to see the Tories doing well in our latest poll. Here are the numbers (with changes on our last pre-election Barometer poll, conducted in early December, in brackets):

Conservatives: 41% (+4)
Labour: 36% (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-2)
Greens: 2% (+1)
Others: 1 (no change)

These are historically good figures for the Conservatives in Wales. Their 41 percent support equals the highest rating they have obtained in general election voting intention this century. Labour, by contrast, see their support slip since the general election. Plaid Cymru will be reasonably pleased with a modest rise in their support; all other parties, however, are at very low levels of support.

What might such support levels for the parties mean in terms of parliamentary seats? Using the standard method, of projecting the swings since the last general election indicated by this poll uniformly across Wales, gives us the following outcome in terms of seats (with projected changes from the December result in brackets):

Labour: 18 (-4)
Conservatives: 18 (+4)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)

In short, this poll projects the Conservative to retain all six seats that they gained from Labour at the general election, and on top of that to gain four more ones: Alyn and Deeside, Gower, Newport East and Newport West. All other seats are projected to be won by the party that was victorious in December.

But it is not only changes at Westminster that are suggested by our new poll.

As well as Westminster, we also asked once again about voting intentions for both the constituency and the regional ballots in a devolved election. Here are the figures for the constituency ballot (with shifts in support since our December Barometer poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 35% (+4)
Labour: 33% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Brexit Party: 4% (-3)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Others: 1% (no change)

These numbers (which include figures for 16 and 17-year-old voters, something that marginally reduces the Conservative lead) show that the current post-election boost to Conservative fortunes is not just confined to Westminster. The 35 percent support reported for the Conservatives is actually their highest ever reported vote intention for the constituency vote in an Assembly election. If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election our new Barometer poll projects the Tories to gain eight constituency seats from Labour: these are (in order of current marginality) the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Newport West, and Delyn). There are no other projected constituency seat changes.

For the regional list vote, the new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes since our December poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 32% (+4)
Labour: 32% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Greens: 3% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-4)
Others: 5% (+1)

These regional vote figures once more have the Welsh Conservatives equalling their best-ever showing, from early May 2017. Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once more assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
Regions:

North Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
These figures therefore generate the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:
Labour: 24 seats (19 constituency, 5 regional)
Conservatives: 22 seats (14 constituency, 8 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituencies, 7 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)

Since the inaugural election to the National Assembly in 1999, Labour has always much been the largest party in the chamber. Our new poll indicates that, around fifteen months from the next devolved election in Wales, we are currently on course for a rather different type of politics in what will soon to be known as Senedd Cymru/the Welsh Parliament.
Overall, our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll suggests that these are good times in which to be a Welsh Conservative. Indeed, those times have never been better: on all three vote intention measures, the party is equalling or exceeding the best ratings they have ever scored before. But if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted. Last May the Welsh Tories scored only 6.5 percent of the vote in the European elections; now they are buoyant. Within another few months, who knows where things will be?

News

Trump’s tariffs threaten Welsh exports as luxury carmakers face uncertain future

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Aston Martin and TVR among firms at risk from new US automotive import tax

WELSH exporters have been dealt a major blow after former US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs on UK goods, including a 25% tariff on all automotive imports into the United States, sparking concern across Wales’ high-value manufacturing sector.

The announcement, made on April 2, also includes a 10% baseline tariff on all UK imports into the US, taking effect from April 5. These new charges come on top of previously announced 25% tariffs on steel, aluminium and automotive parts, with only a limited number of product exemptions such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

The United States is Wales’ second largest export market, accounting for 13.5% of total goods exports. In 2024, Welsh goods trade with the US was valued at £6.4bn, with £2.2bn in exports and £4.2bn in imports. Of the 3,188 Welsh firms that exported goods globally in 2024, over a third (33.4%) exported to the US.

While Welsh exports span sectors from steel to technology, some of the hardest-hit businesses could be those involved in high-end automotive manufacturing—a sector that Wales has been nurturing in recent years.

Luxury carmakers in the firing line

Aston Martin’s factory in St Athan, Vale of Glamorgan, opened in 2020 to manufacture the DBX luxury SUV, has been a flagship project for Welsh industry. With many of these vehicles aimed at wealthy international buyers, particularly in the US, a 25% tariff could significantly hinder their competitiveness abroad.

Similarly, TVR’s long-awaited revival, with plans to produce its new Griffith sports car in Ebbw Vale, is expected to rely heavily on overseas sales, including to American car enthusiasts. Any additional import taxes on these cars could make them prohibitively expensive in the US market—potentially delaying investment and job creation in the Welsh factory.

Both brands represent the premium end of British automotive design and were supported by the Welsh Government as part of a strategy to attract advanced manufacturing jobs.

Welsh Government: “Far-reaching impacts”

Reacting to the announcement, Rebecca Evans MS, Cabinet Secretary for Economy, Energy and Planning, expressed “deep concern” about the likely effects of the tariffs.

“Whilst it is a small relief to see that the tariffs applied to UK imports are lower than those imposed on the EU, a 10% tariff represents a significant rise for most products,” she said.

“These changes will affect almost all of our businesses that export to the US.”

Evans said the Welsh Government remains in close contact with Westminster and is working with business and industry leaders to assess the fallout. Support will be available through existing business support programmes, and regular updates will be provided as the full impact becomes clearer.

Could there be an upside for UK consumers?

Amid the gloom, some experts suggest UK consumers might see short-term benefits, especially in the used car market.

Aidan Rushby, CEO of car finance company Carmoola, said the tariffs could create a glut of nearly-new and unsold stock that ends up staying in the UK.

“If British manufacturers struggle to sell into the US, we could see more cars redirected to the domestic market, which may mean better deals for UK consumers,” he said.

“An economic wobble caused by global trade tensions could also push used car prices lower as demand softens. That’s good news for buyers, but for current car owners, it could mean faster depreciation.”

Rushby added that it’s more important than ever for buyers to stay informed and work with responsible lenders.

Renewable energy sector raises alarm

It’s not just manufacturing that could suffer. Jane Cooper, Deputy Chief Executive of RenewableUK, warned that the broader fallout from tariffs and trade disputes could stifle green innovation and investment.

“These tariffs, combined with the US Government’s recent moves to halt offshore wind development, will mean UK and American companies will miss out on opportunities to trade, invest and collaborate in clean technology,” she said.

While trade in renewable goods between the UK and US is limited, Cooper said many UK-based manufacturers operate across Europe, and the disruption to supply chains could be significant.

Business leaders urged to prepare

The Institute of Directors (IoD) North Wales hosted a key event last week in Bangor, where industry experts briefed Welsh businesses on how best to navigate the evolving trade landscape.

David Roberts, Chair of North Wales IoD, said: “From global trade concerns such as Trump’s tariffs, to local investment opportunities in Flintshire and Wrexham, it’s vital that Welsh firms stay informed and resilient.”

Despite reassurances, there are no current plans for the UK to retaliate. The UK Government is seeking a negotiated solution with the US and has opened a consultation to assess the impact on British businesses.

For now, Welsh exporters—and especially those in automotive and high-tech sectors—face a turbulent road ahead.

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News

Unison calls for fair funding as NI hike leaves Wales short by £65m

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WALES could be left facing a funding shortfall of up to £65 million due to the way its budget is calculated, trade union UNISON warned on Thursday (Apr 3).

The union says a rise in employer national insurance contributions, set to take effect on Sunday (Apr 6), will see the UK Treasury cover the additional costs for public services in England—but not in Wales.

UNISON is calling on the UK government to “play fair” by reviewing how money is allocated to the devolved nations. It says the Barnett formula—used to distribute public funds—fails to account for the larger size of the public sector in Wales, leaving essential services exposed.

Jess Turner, UNISON Cymru/Wales secretary, said: “Our plea to the UK government is to treat Wales fairly. If public services in England are to be fully covered for the national insurance increase, then those in Wales must be too. That additional cash can only come from Westminster.

“The Treasury is effectively penalising Wales because of the comparatively larger size of its public service workforce.”

According to the union, the shortfall will place even more strain on services already under pressure after years of underfunding.

“Fifteen years of squeezing budgets has placed public services under intolerable strain,” said Ms Turner. “A shortfall of tens of millions of pounds will harm the quality of vital services and heap further pressure on the Welsh workforce, who are already being asked to do more with less.

“More broadly, it’s clear the way Wales is funded within the UK needs to be reviewed.”

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Health

Welsh public want NHS, cost of living and infrastructure prioritised

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Report highlights top concerns and calls for long-term vision

THE WELSH public want the government to prioritise improvements to the NHS, tackle the cost of living, and invest in infrastructure, according to Deloitte’s latest State of the State report.

The 2025 report, published in partnership with the independent think tank Reform, reflects the views of both public sector leaders and the people who use public services.

For the third consecutive year, the state of the NHS and the cost of living were the most pressing concerns for people in Wales, with both issues cited by 75% of those surveyed. Social care for the elderly and vulnerable adults followed, mentioned by 48%.

Jobs and the economy (47%) and affordable housing (43%) were also high on the public’s list of priorities. One of the most notable increases was in concern about infrastructure—roads, railways and broadband—with 42% calling for improvements, a rise of six percentage points on last year.

When asked about the biggest drivers of future growth, respondents in Wales chose improving the nation’s health (45%), boosting education and skills (44%), and increased investment in infrastructure (39%).

Despite these priorities, most people were pessimistic about the outlook. Some 75% expected the NHS to stay the same or get worse, while 74% said the same about infrastructure.

Council chief executives interviewed for the report stressed that government infrastructure spending would be key to future growth. Other public sector leaders highlighted progress in Welsh transport, crediting a clear vision and strong partnership working for recent successes.

The biggest challenge facing public services, according to respondents, was a lack of funding, with 66% citing it as a concern. A further 55% expressed fears about a loss of trust in public services.

While trust in the Welsh Government remains higher than in the UK, Scottish or Northern Irish governments, the public remain sceptical about delivery. Some 63% said they had low trust in its ability to deliver major projects on time and on budget, while 61% doubted it could deliver outcomes people want.

On the question of taxation, Welsh public opinion was divided. Some 31% supported higher taxes and public spending, while 37% preferred lower taxes and reduced spending. Nearly half (47%) said they expected higher taxes and spending regardless of their preference.

Deloitte’s interviews with senior public sector leaders revealed ambitious long-term goals, including frictionless digital interaction with government services, improved collaboration between agencies, place-based planning for integrated transport and healthcare, and a shift toward long-term, commercially aware decision-making.

Dave Tansley, Deloitte’s senior partner for the South West and Wales, said: “The State of the State 2025 report shows the Welsh public remain concerned about the cost of living and the NHS. But our survey also found heightened interest in infrastructure, more so than in other parts of the UK, suggesting the public recognises the importance of connectivity to economic growth.”

He added: “Infrastructure investment supports jobs, housing, roads and rail—but more importantly, it provides the platform for long-term economic resilience. With public finances under pressure and the 2026 Senedd election approaching, the next administration faces difficult choices and the chance to deliver transformational change.”

Ian Howse, Deloitte’s senior partner for Wales, said: “Public sector leaders want bold reform—services that are joined-up, citizen-focused and tech-driven. While the Welsh Government is addressing immediate pressures, our research points to the need for a long-term vision. Leaders report growing urgency to deliver ahead of the next election, especially on economic growth, which is a positive sign for the future.”

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