Politics
First Welsh poll of year shows ‘Boris Bounce’
PROFESSOR Roger Awan Scully writes: As the UK stands on the verge of leaving the European Union, voters are currently rewarding the man who has led them to this point, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His Conservative Party is at historic levels of support in Wales, and potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election. There are the key messages to emerge from the first Welsh Political Barometer poll of 2020, the first since the general election.
Our new poll, as is typically the case, asked about voting intentions for both Westminster and the National Assembly. For the first time, though, and in light of the recent legislation that has given 16 and 17-year-olds the right to vote in devolved elections in Wales, our sample included a representative number from that age group; they are not included in the vote intention estimates for a general election discussed below, but they are included in the estimates for the Assembly.
First, Westminster. After the strong Conservative performance in December and the further boost they have had in post-election polls conducted across Britain, it is no surprise to see the Tories doing well in our latest poll. Here are the numbers (with changes on our last pre-election Barometer poll, conducted in early December, in brackets):
Conservatives: 41% (+4)
Labour: 36% (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-2)
Greens: 2% (+1)
Others: 1 (no change)
These are historically good figures for the Conservatives in Wales. Their 41 percent support equals the highest rating they have obtained in general election voting intention this century. Labour, by contrast, see their support slip since the general election. Plaid Cymru will be reasonably pleased with a modest rise in their support; all other parties, however, are at very low levels of support.
What might such support levels for the parties mean in terms of parliamentary seats? Using the standard method, of projecting the swings since the last general election indicated by this poll uniformly across Wales, gives us the following outcome in terms of seats (with projected changes from the December result in brackets):
Labour: 18 (-4)
Conservatives: 18 (+4)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)
In short, this poll projects the Conservative to retain all six seats that they gained from Labour at the general election, and on top of that to gain four more ones: Alyn and Deeside, Gower, Newport East and Newport West. All other seats are projected to be won by the party that was victorious in December.
But it is not only changes at Westminster that are suggested by our new poll.
As well as Westminster, we also asked once again about voting intentions for both the constituency and the regional ballots in a devolved election. Here are the figures for the constituency ballot (with shifts in support since our December Barometer poll once again in brackets):
Conservatives: 35% (+4)
Labour: 33% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Brexit Party: 4% (-3)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Others: 1% (no change)
These numbers (which include figures for 16 and 17-year-old voters, something that marginally reduces the Conservative lead) show that the current post-election boost to Conservative fortunes is not just confined to Westminster. The 35 percent support reported for the Conservatives is actually their highest ever reported vote intention for the constituency vote in an Assembly election. If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election our new Barometer poll projects the Tories to gain eight constituency seats from Labour: these are (in order of current marginality) the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Newport West, and Delyn). There are no other projected constituency seat changes.
For the regional list vote, the new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes since our December poll once again in brackets):
Conservatives: 32% (+4)
Labour: 32% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Greens: 3% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-4)
Others: 5% (+1)
These regional vote figures once more have the Welsh Conservatives equalling their best-ever showing, from early May 2017. Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once more assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
Regions:
North Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
These figures therefore generate the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:
Labour: 24 seats (19 constituency, 5 regional)
Conservatives: 22 seats (14 constituency, 8 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituencies, 7 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)
Since the inaugural election to the National Assembly in 1999, Labour has always much been the largest party in the chamber. Our new poll indicates that, around fifteen months from the next devolved election in Wales, we are currently on course for a rather different type of politics in what will soon to be known as Senedd Cymru/the Welsh Parliament.
Overall, our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll suggests that these are good times in which to be a Welsh Conservative. Indeed, those times have never been better: on all three vote intention measures, the party is equalling or exceeding the best ratings they have ever scored before. But if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted. Last May the Welsh Tories scored only 6.5 percent of the vote in the European elections; now they are buoyant. Within another few months, who knows where things will be?
Politics
Alarm over Wales’ domestic violence ‘epidemic’
DOMESTIC violence against women and girls is the scourge of Wales and a national emergency, Senedd Members warned.
Mabon ap Gwynfor said Welsh police reported more than 45,000 cases of domestic abuse in 2022/23 and almost 10,000 sexual offences the previous year, with many more unrecorded.
Leading a Senedd debate, the Plaid Cymru politician challenged a tendency to believe rural Wales is an exception, with domestic abuse “limited” to urban areas only.
“The evidence shows otherwise,” he said. “Rates of domestic abuse in north Wales are higher than those in the city of London.
“North Wales even faces the same level of sexual crimes as Greater Manchester, which has a population five times the size.”
Mr ap Gwynfor added: “I am afraid the election of President Trump in the US is going to make things much worse as he makes misogynistic attitudes acceptable again.”
He said victims wait a year for support in Cardiff or Merthyr but four months in Swansea, asking: “How can we justify someone’s trauma being dependent on a postcode lottery?”
He told the Senedd that 16 children per 1,000 in north Wales are being seen by sexual assault referral centres compared with a rate of 2.9 per 1,000 in London.
Mr ap Gwynfor said the NSPCC found one in five children have experienced domestic violence, with Childline Cardiff holding 4,000 counselling sessions in the past year.
Calling for urgent devolution, he warned that prosecution statistics suggest sexual violence has effectively been legalised, with victims let down and public trust eroded.
Labour’s Joyce Watson said a vigil will be held outside the Senedd on November 25 to mark White Ribbon Day, the international day for ending violence against women and children.
Ms Watson highlighted her party’s pledge to halve violence against women and girls over the next decade, calling for funding from Westminster to further the aim in Wales.
She told the Senedd: “It is a national threat and it is an epidemic. There’s no getting away from that. It’s deep-rooted, it’s wide-reaching.”
Sioned Williams raised the NSPCC’s calls for sustainable long-term funding for specialist support for children and young people who are survivors of domestic violence.
Her Plaid Cymru colleague Luke Fletcher warned of the “corrosive” effect of social media, calling for a crackdown on misogynistic content targeted at young men.
Responding to the debate on November 13, Jane Hutt pointed to progress made in tackling violence against women and girls but she recognised “so much more needs to be done”.
Ms Hutt, who is Wales’ social justice secretary, highlighted horrifying statistics from July showing that two million women in the UK are victims of male violence every year.
She described domestic violence as a national emergency, with one woman killed by a man every three days and the number of recorded offences up 37% in the past five years.
She hailed the 20th anniversary of the Live Fear Free helpline, a free 24/7 service run by Welsh Women’s Aid and funded by the Welsh Government.
Ms Hutt said she raised evidence of failures in the justice system with Jess Phillips during a meeting with the UK minister
Politics
Senedd debates Eluned Morgan’s first 100 days as First Minister
SENEDD members debated Eluned Morgan’s record following her first 100 days, with the First Minister rejecting claims she has failed to stand up for Wales.
Andrew RT Davies led a Conservative debate on the eve of November 14, which marks Eluned Morgan’s hundredth day in office.
He accused the First Minister of letting the country down, pointing to the withdrawal of the universal winter fuel allowance for pensioners and warnings of 4,000 premature deaths.
The leader of the opposition also criticised Labour’s decision to raise national insurance contributions for employers, with unemployment in Wales at 5.3% and rising.
Mr Davies said 4,000 patients have been added to NHS waiting lists since the First Minister took office in August, with a total of 614,000 people now waiting for treatment.
He told the Senedd: “That is a damning indictment of government failure here …. That is not standing up for patients here in Wales, it’s not standing up for clinicians, and it’s not standing up, importantly, for the workforce.”
Rhun ap Iorwerth said Baroness Morgan’s first 100 days have shown little evidence of a change in direction from the Welsh Government.
The Plaid Cymru leader said: “By any objective measure, nothing has fundamentally changed in those 100 days.”
He said Baroness Morgan has no plan to grow the economy nor tackle a crisis in the NHS.
Mr ap Iorwerth accused the First Minister of failing to make the case for replacing the Barnett formula, devolving the Crown Estate, and compensating Wales for HS2 spending.
He said: “I’m afraid that what we’ve seen is Labour in Welsh Government, under the new First Minister, shifting into the mode of defending their masters at Westminster….
“A fundamental difference between Plaid Cymru and Labour is that we will never let Westminster diktat hamper our ambitions for Wales.”
Labour’s Hefin David was unconvinced by the 100-day measure of success, which was coined by former US President Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930s.
He said: “It worked for him; I’m not sure it’s going to work so much across modern politics, which moves so quickly and so differently.”
He suggested the next Senedd election in 18 months will be a much better yardstick.
The Caerphilly Senedd Member pointed out that Wales’ first female First Minister, from Ely, Cardiff, one of the poorest parts of the UK, succeeded against the odds.
Describing Baroness Morgan as a “listening First Minister”, Dr David joked: “She’s the only First Minister who gives me a cwtch every time I see her. I can see Mark Drakeford getting a little worried there. I’m not expecting anything, finance minister.
“But I do think it demonstrates the warmth of Eluned Morgan.”
Responding to the debate, Eluned Morgan reeled off a list of achievements including £28m to cut waiting times, £13m on better end of life care and a new north Wales medical school.
She said £7.7m has been invested in a specialist burns and plastic surgery centre at Swansea’s Morriston Hospital, serving ten million people from Aberystwyth to Oxford.
Baroness Morgan lauded a “landmark” £1bn investment in the redevelopment of Shotton Mill, Deeside, protecting 137 jobs and creating 220 more.
She claimed the Labour Welsh and UK Governments also secured a better deal for Tata steelworkers, accusing the Tories of failing to budget for a £80m transition fund.
“This is a lengthy list,” she said. “But it could be longer and it will be longer as we continue to deliver…. The first 100 days demonstrates how Welsh Labour is delivering real investment, real jobs, real support for communities – not promises and pledges but delivery.
“I am so proud of everything this government has already delivered since I became First Minister and I’m optimistic about what we can achieve as we move forward.”
Education
Disabled children ‘denied rights to education’
DISABLED children and young people in Wales are being fundamentally let down and denied their right to education, Senedd Members warned.
Buffy Williams, who chairs the children’s committee, led a debate after an inquiry found many disabled children do not have equal access to education and childcare.
The Labour politician raised concerns about the Welsh Government rejecting six of the 32 recommendations emerging from the committee’s 239-page report.
She welcomed recognition that more must be done to uphold children’s rights to education.
But, addressing Welsh ministers, Ms Williams warned: “We do not feel that your response commits to a step change in the pace and scale of the action required to do so.
“Our committee, like the online advisory group, worries that maybe you are not giving these issues the priority they deserve.”
She told the Senedd that families’ distressing experiences left an imprint, with the committee hearing some children are thinking about and attempting suicide due to a lack of support.
Ms Williams said parents, carers and young people on the advisory group believe ministers’ formal response to the report fails to recognise the seriousness of the issues families face.
She warned the Welsh Government appears to have “resigned” itself to a substantial shortfall in inclusive childcare for disabled and neurodivergent children.
Criticising ministers’ decision to rebuff calls for mandatory training on disability for all school staff, she stressed the importance of understanding and meeting children’s needs.
Ms Williams, who represents Rhondda, said the Welsh Government’s response appears to delegate responsibility for equity in childcare and education to councils.
She asked: “What more will it take for the Welsh Government to step in, to give local authorities the support they so clearly need?”
Gareth Davies said support for disabled children is patchy across Wales, with schools lacking funding, staff and expertise to deliver inclusive education.
Mr Davies, the Conservatives’ shadow mental health minister, warned that disabled children disproportionately experience bullying in school as he called for greater safeguards.
Plaid Cymru’s Heledd Fychan described the committee’s inquiry as heartbreaking, with failings having a devastating impact on families.
She told the debating chamber or Siambr that children as young as five or six have been traumatised and failed by the education system.
Carolyn Thomas, a Labour backbencher who chairs the petitions committee, stated the Senedd has received five petitions on Wales’ additional learning needs (ALN) reforms.
“The sheer number of petitions and signatures highlights the strength of feeling,” she said.
South Wales East Laura Anne Jones warned ALN support is one of the most pressing issues facing families, with lower-level needs “falling under the radar”.
She said it is disgraceful that so many teachers and assistants still lack basic neurodiversity training, which leads to disabled children’s behaviour being wrongly labelled disruptive.
Calling for urgent action, the Conservative criticised ministers for failing to accept “crucial” recommendations, saying: “Inclusive education is not a luxury, it is a right.”
Hefin David, whose daughter is autistic, sought to place the debate in historical context as he drew on his own family’s experiences.
He said: “In the 1970s and ’80s, my daughter would have been in an institution for most of her early life, she would have spent the whole time there.”
The Caerphilly Senedd Member recognised that progress is sometimes not fast enough but he emphasised that young people are being treated better today than ever before.
Dr David, who is stepping down from the children’s committee, said: “To take too much of a downbeat note on these things is to devalue the experience of those who suffered.”
The Labour politician described the 32 recommendations as “too many”, warning this is problematic in terms of setting people up to fail with resources spread so thin.
Responding to the debate on November 12, Lynne Neagle apologised to families for their experiences which she said made for distressing and sobering reading.
Wales’ education secretary said: “I am truly sorry … and I say on behalf of the [Welsh] Government that it is not good enough.”
Ms Neagle, whose first job after university was working with parents of disabled children, recognised that families too often feel the need to fight for support.
“It affected me deeply,” she told the Senedd. “And I want to acknowledge that not enough has changed for enough families – we can and we must do better.”
She said: “Rights on their own are not enough, they must be translated into action…. I know too many children and families have been waiting too long for their rights to become action.
“Like them, I am impatient for change. As a government, we will not stop until we get it right for all children and young people in Wales.”
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