Politics
First Welsh poll of year shows ‘Boris Bounce’
PROFESSOR Roger Awan Scully writes: As the UK stands on the verge of leaving the European Union, voters are currently rewarding the man who has led them to this point, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His Conservative Party is at historic levels of support in Wales, and potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election. There are the key messages to emerge from the first Welsh Political Barometer poll of 2020, the first since the general election.
Our new poll, as is typically the case, asked about voting intentions for both Westminster and the National Assembly. For the first time, though, and in light of the recent legislation that has given 16 and 17-year-olds the right to vote in devolved elections in Wales, our sample included a representative number from that age group; they are not included in the vote intention estimates for a general election discussed below, but they are included in the estimates for the Assembly.
First, Westminster. After the strong Conservative performance in December and the further boost they have had in post-election polls conducted across Britain, it is no surprise to see the Tories doing well in our latest poll. Here are the numbers (with changes on our last pre-election Barometer poll, conducted in early December, in brackets):
Conservatives: 41% (+4)
Labour: 36% (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-2)
Greens: 2% (+1)
Others: 1 (no change)
These are historically good figures for the Conservatives in Wales. Their 41 percent support equals the highest rating they have obtained in general election voting intention this century. Labour, by contrast, see their support slip since the general election. Plaid Cymru will be reasonably pleased with a modest rise in their support; all other parties, however, are at very low levels of support.
What might such support levels for the parties mean in terms of parliamentary seats? Using the standard method, of projecting the swings since the last general election indicated by this poll uniformly across Wales, gives us the following outcome in terms of seats (with projected changes from the December result in brackets):
Labour: 18 (-4)
Conservatives: 18 (+4)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)
In short, this poll projects the Conservative to retain all six seats that they gained from Labour at the general election, and on top of that to gain four more ones: Alyn and Deeside, Gower, Newport East and Newport West. All other seats are projected to be won by the party that was victorious in December.
But it is not only changes at Westminster that are suggested by our new poll.
As well as Westminster, we also asked once again about voting intentions for both the constituency and the regional ballots in a devolved election. Here are the figures for the constituency ballot (with shifts in support since our December Barometer poll once again in brackets):
Conservatives: 35% (+4)
Labour: 33% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Brexit Party: 4% (-3)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Others: 1% (no change)
These numbers (which include figures for 16 and 17-year-old voters, something that marginally reduces the Conservative lead) show that the current post-election boost to Conservative fortunes is not just confined to Westminster. The 35 percent support reported for the Conservatives is actually their highest ever reported vote intention for the constituency vote in an Assembly election. If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election our new Barometer poll projects the Tories to gain eight constituency seats from Labour: these are (in order of current marginality) the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Newport West, and Delyn). There are no other projected constituency seat changes.
For the regional list vote, the new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes since our December poll once again in brackets):
Conservatives: 32% (+4)
Labour: 32% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Greens: 3% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-4)
Others: 5% (+1)
These regional vote figures once more have the Welsh Conservatives equalling their best-ever showing, from early May 2017. Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once more assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
Regions:
North Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
These figures therefore generate the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:
Labour: 24 seats (19 constituency, 5 regional)
Conservatives: 22 seats (14 constituency, 8 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituencies, 7 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)
Since the inaugural election to the National Assembly in 1999, Labour has always much been the largest party in the chamber. Our new poll indicates that, around fifteen months from the next devolved election in Wales, we are currently on course for a rather different type of politics in what will soon to be known as Senedd Cymru/the Welsh Parliament.
Overall, our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll suggests that these are good times in which to be a Welsh Conservative. Indeed, those times have never been better: on all three vote intention measures, the party is equalling or exceeding the best ratings they have ever scored before. But if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted. Last May the Welsh Tories scored only 6.5 percent of the vote in the European elections; now they are buoyant. Within another few months, who knows where things will be?
Community
Pembrokeshire town 4G phone mast plans withdrawn
PLANS for a replacement 20-metre-high 4G phone mast tower in north Pembrokeshire, which the local town council says would have “an unacceptable adverse impact” on the national park’s beauty have been withdrawn.
In an application before Pembrokeshire Coast National Park, Cellnex, through agent Telent, sought permission to replace an existing 10m high mast with a new 20m 4G tower with three Vodafone antennae and nine mast head amplifiers, and associated works, on land at Dwr-y-Felin Farm, Fford Bedd Morris, Newport.
The application for a 4G mobile base station for the mobile network operator(s) (MNOs) Vodafone Ltd in conjunction with Cornerstone. The application site is owned / operated by Cellnex UK, a radio site infrastructure provider.
A supporting statement accompanying the application said: “The proposed antenna height of 20m is essential to provide new 4G coverage and replacement 2G and 3G service provision to the surrounding area. 4G radio signals are more sensitive to physical obstructions than older technologies.
“This is because the higher the frequency band the greater the reduction in signal strength, increasing the likelihood of dropped calls and reduced data rates for internet browsing,” adding: “Generally, the higher the signal frequency the more it will be impacted by clutter. It is for this reason that there is the height of 20m is required.”
It went on to say it “should be noted that a radio base station within this location has already been considered acceptable and has become an established feature within the area and the proposed upgrade albeit different in design to support the latest equipment will not be of substantial or detrimental harm to the national park, conservation area or heritage assets”.
Newport Town Council had objected to the application, saying: “The proposed development (if approved in its current form) will have an unacceptable adverse impact on the qualities and special landscape and seascape character of the National Park and also on the special qualities of natural beauty and tranquillity.”
The application has now been withdrawn.
Charity
Flats for veterans to be built at VC Gallery, Pembroke Dock
A CALL to build flats for armed forces veterans on a former Pembrokeshire school yard/playing field next to veterans’ charity the VC Gallery has been approved by county planners.
In an application before Pembrokeshire County Council, veterans’ charity The VC Gallery sought permission for eight flats in two blocks of two-storey buildings, including wheelchair accessible flats, for Armed Forces veterans on land to the east of the former St Marys Catholic School site, Britannia Road, Pembroke Dock.
The former school, which closed in 2019, is currently used as the VC Gallery, itself an expansion of veterans’ charity the VC Gallery’s home in Haverfordwest, set up by Barry John MBE.
Documentation, through agent Pembroke Design Limited included a supporting statement by Barry John MBE, which it says “explains the issues that veterans face after leaving the services, the need for dedicated housing provision, the support that VC Gallery’s staff and volunteers provide and the gaps in current provision which the proposed development will help address”.
It added: “Although the development will provide and encourage independent living for its tenants, essential physical and mental support will be provided by the staff and volunteers in the VC Gallery as required, in accordance with individual veterans’ needs. Many will need a high level of support and the close proximity of the flats to the facilities and people on hand in the adjacent VC Gallery is therefore critical to the proposal’s purpose.”
Mr John’s statement said: “We want to create a unique offer to Armed Forces veterans in Pembrokeshire by offering up not just quality accommodation in a gated and safe environment but to also have a bespoke peer mentoring service.”
He added: “Working alongside our stakeholders The Armed Forces Covenant Fund Trust and the OVA (Office of Veterans Affairs) we have secured a grant to draw up plans and to look at how the secured land at the VC Gallery Pembroke Dock can be turned into a bespoke housing solution for Armed Forces Veterans.
“We have Service level agreements with the local authority for specifically supporting tenancy in veterans which will also extend to giving vital counselling services. Our work with the health board and provision for peer mentorship also gives us great grounding for effective help on a practical level for the veterans’ village but we will need a more designated package around the housing we provide to include both mental health and also maintenance (something we don’t have at present).”
His statement finished: “We think the need is great, we have the land, we have the skills for care and the ambition to help. It would be a project above all social housing enterprises, and we want to make a go of it.”
Politics
Call to stop councillors being employed by MPs and MSs
A CALL to stop senior Pembrokeshire county councillors being employed by MPs or Senedd members is to come under greater scrutiny at a special council committee.
In a Notice of Motion submitted to the December meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council, Independent Group leader Cllr Huw Murphy said: “While it is acceptable for Cabinet members to hold other employments, no serving county councillor should hold a Cabinet position within Pembrokeshire County Council (PCC) while simultaneously being employed by a sitting Member of Parliament (MP) or Member of the Senedd (MS).
“Cabinet members hold executive responsibilities, and such dual roles risk potential conflicts of interest, particularly if Cabinet decisions conflict with the policies of their employer, often a political party. This concern is heightened in a council where most members are Independents.”
Cllr Murphy’s notice of motion was heard at the December meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council where it was agreed the matter be referred to a future constitutional review committee.
In the registration of interests for the eight members of Leader Cllr Jon Harvey’s Cabinet, only Cllr Joshua Beynon, deputy leader of the Labour Group and Cabinet Member for Corporate Finance and Efficiencies, lists a politician as an employer, in his case newly-elected Mid and South Pembrokeshire MP Henry Tufnell.
Responding to the notice of motion, Cllr Beynon has previously said: “This motion, which appears to target my unique position as a Cabinet Member for Finance and part-time parliamentary employee, raises serious questions about its fairness, legality, and intent.
“At its core, this is a politically motivated motion that seeks to undermine the principles of fairness and freedom. It attempts to dictate lawful employment choices of councillors, disregarding the importance of balancing public service with individual rights. Such an approach risks creating a chilling effect, discouraging capable individuals from serving in public office in the future.”
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