New electoral system and rising support for Reform could reshape political landscape in 2026

WELSH Labour’s long-standing dominance in Cardiff Bay could come to an end at the 2026 Senedd Election, with the latest projections showing the party only narrowly ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Plaid Cymru in what is set to be the tightest race in a generation.

Cavendish, one of the UK’s leading public affairs and communications consultancies, today (Thursday, April 10) launched its new Senedd Seat Projector, revealing dramatic shifts in public support and the likelihood of a multi-party government.

Using polling data and modelling based on the new proportional voting system and enlarged Senedd, Cavendish forecasts that Labour may secure 28 seats—just one ahead of Reform on 27, with Plaid Cymru close behind on 24.

Under the reformed system, 96 members will be elected across 16 new constituencies, with each electing six MSs. The changes are expected to significantly alter how campaigns are run and how votes are converted into seats.

Coalition government likely

Cathy Owens, Director at Cavendish, said a coalition government appears almost certain.

“Our Senedd Seat Projector sets out a stark reality for Welsh Labour,” she said. “It shows a coalition between Labour and Plaid Cymru as the most likely outcome, potentially with joint First Ministers.

“Otherwise, a combination of the Conservatives, Reform, and Plaid Cymru would be needed to secure a majority—a scenario that seems politically unlikely.”

Cavendish says the data reflects a “seismic” shift in Welsh politics. For the past 25 years, Welsh Labour has polled consistently between 35% and 40%. But over the last year, support for Labour has dropped significantly, with Reform now regularly polling at similar levels.

The polling picture

Cavendish compiled projections from leading pollsters over the last 12 months. While Labour consistently leads, the margin is often razor-thin. A sample of projections includes:

Survation (April 2025):

• Labour: 28 seats (27%)
• Reform: 27 seats (24%)
• Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (24%)
• Conservatives: 15 seats (15%)
• Lib Dems: 2 seats (5%)
• Greens: 0

Beaufort (December 2024):

• Labour: 28 seats (27%)
• Reform: 28 seats (24%)
• Plaid Cymru: 20 seats (18%)
• Conservatives: 17 seats (17%)
• Lib Dems: 2 seats (6%)
• Greens: 1

YouGov (December 2024):

• Labour: 25 seats (23%)
• Reform: 25 seats (24%)
• Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (24%)
• Conservatives: 19 seats (19%)
• Lib Dems: 2 seats (5%)
• Greens: 1

Redfield & Wilton (June 2024):

• Labour: 38 seats (36%)
• Reform: 11 seats (11%)
• Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (22%)
• Conservatives: 20 seats (18%)
• Lib Dems: 2 seats (6%)
• Greens: 1

The variation highlights the volatility of Welsh politics under the new system, with small shifts in support having a significant impact on seat distribution.

Campaigns will need to adapt

Cathy Owens added: “The new system rewards efficient, geographically spread support. Parties will need to rethink their campaign strategies completely.

“There will be six types of marginal seats, and organisations that want to influence manifesto pledges will need to engage far more strategically than before.”

Cavendish says the Senedd Seat Projector offers a unique insight into the upcoming election and will be an essential tool for journalists, analysts, campaigners and the public.

The tool is now live on the Cavendish website, along with a full report on Senedd reform.

Cavendish will also host a LinkedIn Live event featuring Cathy Owens and fellow director Nerys Evans, in conversation with journalist Will Hayward, to discuss the findings and what they mean for the future of Welsh politics.

Opposition warns of financial risk while Welsh Government defends plans to improve services

BUS passenger numbers in Wales remain significantly below pre-pandemic levels, raising questions over the long-term viability of the Welsh Government’s proposed Bus Services (Wales) Bill.

Figures released for the 12 months up to March 2024 show that bus usage in Wales has recovered to just 78.3% of its March 2020 levels—well behind the figures for Scotland (92.5%) and England (89.5%), and below the Great Britain average of 89.5%.

The statistics have prompted criticism from the Welsh Conservatives, who say the figures expose the financial risks of the new legislation.

Commenting, Peter Fox MS, the Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Transport and Infrastructure, said:
“Passenger growth has been slow for not only buses in Wales but also for trains, leading to a £295m bailout for Transport for Wales (TfW) by the Welsh Labour Government last year to compensate for declining passenger numbers.
“There was already a very real risk of Labour’s new Bus Bill becoming another money pit for the Welsh taxpayer. Once bus franchising comes into play, will we see similarly large sums of public money poured into keeping bus franchises afloat?”

He added that the Welsh Government must ensure that rural and isolated communities are not left behind in any overhaul of services: “The Labour Welsh Government must prioritise support for the most hard-to-reach areas and ensure the development of a sustainable and effective bus network that meets the needs of communities across Wales.”

The Bus Services (Wales) Bill, introduced earlier this year, would give local authorities and Transport for Wales greater control over how services are operated. The legislation is designed to replace the current deregulated system with a franchised model—similar to that used in parts of England—allowing councils to plan routes, set fares, and integrate ticketing across providers.

A Welsh Government spokesperson said the aim of the Bill is not to replicate current models but to improve accessibility, connectivity, and reliability of public transport in Wales:
“The current deregulated system has failed many communities, particularly in rural areas. The Bus Services (Wales) Bill will allow local authorities to work with providers in a more joined-up way, offering passengers a more consistent and dependable service.
“We recognise the financial challenges facing public transport, but we are committed to creating a network that serves people, not just profit.”

Public transport campaigners have said that passenger numbers alone should not be the only metric for success. Transform Cymru, a coalition advocating for sustainable transport, pointed to the need for long-term investment and public trust in services:
“The drop in passenger numbers reflects not just post-pandemic trends, but also decades of underinvestment and service cuts. If we want people to get back on buses, services need to be reliable, affordable and convenient.”

As the Bill progresses through the Senedd, its financial implications, particularly in light of current budgetary pressures, are likely to remain a key point of debate.

A PARTLY-retrospective application to upgrade a garden centre on the main road to Pembroke Dock has been submitted to Pembrokeshire planners.

In the application, submitted through agent Hayston Developments & Planning Ltd, Mr and Mrs Wainwright seek permission for upgrade of a garden centre with a relocated garden centre sales area, additional parking and the creation of ornamental pond and wildlife enhancement area (partly in retrospect) at Cosheston Garden Centre, Slade Cross, Cosheston.

The application is a resubmission of a previously refused scheme, with the retrospective aspects of the works starting in late 2023.

The site has a long planning history and started life as a market garden and turkey farm in the 1980s and then a number of applications for new development.

A supporting statement says the previously-refused application included setting aside a significant part of the proposed new building for general retail sales as a linked farm shop and local food store/deli in addition to a coffee bar.

It was refused on the grounds of “the proposal was deemed to be contrary to retail policies and the likely impact of that use on the vitality and viability of nearby centres,” the statement says, adding: “Secondly, in noting that vehicular access was off the A 477 (T) the Welsh Government raised an objection on the grounds that insufficient transport information had been submitted in respect of traffic generation and highway safety.”

It says the new scheme seeks to address those issues; the development largely the same with the proposed new garden centre building is now only proposed to accommodate a relocated garden centre display sales area rather than a new retail sales area with other goods, but retaining a small ancillary coffee bar area.

“Additional information, in the form of an independent and comprehensive Transport Statement, has now been submitted to address the objection raised by the Welsh Government in respect of highway safety,” the statement says.

It concedes: “It is acknowledged that both the creation of the ornamental pond and ‘overspill’ parking area do not have the benefit of planning permission and therefore these aspects of the application are ‘in retrospect’ and seeks their retention.”

It finishes: “Essentially, this proposal seeks to upgrade existing facilities and offer to the general public. It includes the ‘relocation’ of a previously existing retail display area which had been ‘lost’ to the ornamental pond/amenity area and to provide this use within the proposed new building and moves away from the previously proposed ‘farm shop’ idea which we thought had merit. This revised proposal therefore involves an ‘upgrading’ rather than an ‘expansion’ of the existing Garden Centre use.”

The proposals will be considered by county planners at a later date.